International Forecaster June, 2005 (#1) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster | 7 June, 2005
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| Silver bulls some more good news: last week five million ounces of silver moved from registered to eligible. The registered category is just under 45 million ounces. If delivery is taken it will start quite a stir on the Comex. Full Story |
International Forecaster May, 2005 (#2)
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster | 17 May, 2005
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| Another take on higher lease rates is the GM fallout. It will tend to push interest rates higher on all kinds of paper, which could be showing up in lease rates. There could be something going on in derivatives we are not aware of. A big counter-party has problems with one kind of debt, which is causing it to change its position in a different kind of debt. Collateral could have lost its value. We could be looking at something very big. Once silver clears $7.20 it should hit $8.20. Full Story |
International Forecaster April, 2005 (#4) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster | 27 April, 2005
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| Most every commodity in the world is denominated in dollars and commodities have been in a bull market for five years. During that period oil went from $10.00 a barrel to $58.00 a barrel. That is not only the result of supply and demand and speculation, but also a reflection of the dollar’s value. The axiom is simple. The dollar goes down and commodities go up, particularly gold and silver. Due to systemic financial problems, such as massive debt and free trade and globalization, the rot has progressed too far for a quick fix to work. There will have to be a purging of the system. Tremendous efforts will be made at 80 on the Dollar Index to keep it from collapse, but to no avail. The dollar’s collapse is inevitable. Full Story |
International Forecaster April, 2005 (#3) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster | 20 April, 2005
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| By July we should see some action by China in regard to the revaluation of their currency by 5 to 15%. If that happens they will no longer be buying US Treasury and agency paper, they will be sellers. That means higher interest rates and it also means much higher inflation in the US for goods. On the other hand, if China doesn’t budge and we and Europe implement trade tariffs, China will stop buying US paper and become a seller sending interest rates higher. Either way gold and silver will climb in the months ahead. There is no way back and we must suffer through the worst financial and economic purge in many years. Full Story |
International Forecaster April, 2005 (#2) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster | 10 April, 2005
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| Here is a good reason why you do not invest in mining ventures in China or Mongolia. And, we do not care what they have in the ground. The former Communists had a grip on every one of the 76 parliamentary seats until last June. These are the people you would have had to pay off if you wanted to maintain your property. They now have 37 seats against a group of parties that have 34 seats. Minority parties have the five remaining seats. The Mongolians are now complaining about Chinese and Western involvement in the mining sector. One of the leading contenders for president, who is a member of parliament, if elected is proposing changing tax laws and mining laws. Rumor has it the changes are already in draft form, title acquisition will be changed and a 50% tax or royalty will be charged. If so, it will make it very difficult to make money after having plowed in millions of dollars. Most of these people have known nothing but communism, so you can expect the worst. We [International Forecaster] do not recommend stocks in Mongolia, China, South Africa, Russia or any of the CIS republics. If you own them, sell them. Full Story |
International Forecaster October, 2004 (#2) - Silver
By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster | 12 October, 2004
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| Silver production and recycling produced about 730 million ounces in 2003. Demand was approximately 775 million ounces for a shortfall of 45 million ounces. The deficit this year, thus far, leads us to believe the deficit will be 60 million ounces. The big question about silver is how much inventory is left. No one really knows. Seven years ago we estimated that by the end of 2003 there would be little inventory left, or perhaps only as much as 300 million ounces. What ever is left it isn’t very much. Seventy to seventy-five percent of silver production comes from the mining of gold, copper, lead and zinc as a byproduct. There are few pure silver mines in the world. When silver hit $8.20 an ounce four months ago, it was the highest price since August 1987. Based on the ever-shrinking inventory, lack of exploration for the last 15 years and increasing usage, silver is poised for higher price increases in the future. Newly mined silver production dropped more than 3% in 2003 with primary silver mines accounting for 26% of available silver. Full Story |