-- Posted 5 January, 2007 | | Source: SilverSeek.com
Sometimes you just can't get a lifejacket. Through your captain's cabin porthole you see the lifeboats being lowered over the side on their davits. Just as you ordered. That's just a precaution for others. But, you sit tight in your stateroom, comforted in the belief that you have steered your ship safely through hazardous shoals that in a collision would send your ship to Davey Jone's locker quicker than a Fed rate cut in a Panic. All the navigational buoys are lined up for safe passage. A new dawn for the Gold Bull is rising just ahead. You can even see its brightening halo. You've made this same passage dozens of times.
As an added precaution, your radio operator tells you all is well with other craft in the same grids. Ahh, yes, go for the gold NOW!
Icebergs scraping and screeching along a ship's hull are called "growlers". They are regular fare in the North Atlantic, and not a reason for alarm, unless of course they don't move out of the way! The ones that are bigger than you do require some adjustment to ship's steerage!
Well, a skipper should never retire to his stateroom during hazardous navigation leaving the bridge in command of a junior officer. Not that a junior officer would be incapable, but that you as Captain, must assume responsibility in stressful periods. You must be decisive and prominent before the whole crew. (Unlike our political leaders, a respected captain does not delegate responsibilities in times of danger. A sea captain does not peek out from behind the aprons of his subordinates)
I went to my stateroom last week after penning a
Review of the Gold/Silver Ratio. I had reviewed all my weekly indicators for the HUI, SLV/GLD Ratio, Fibonacci levels, volumes, etc. I even left the reader with the inference that the precious metals pullback would be consummated in Christmas week, and that the Ratio would reverse shortly favoring silver which would be indicative of the bull market resumption.
I should have stayed on the bridge. Instead, I violated my own advice and bought back into selective silver juniors and explorers. I did this even with the WEEKLY HUI chart still showing downward direction in the MACD! While I caution PATIENCE for others, I'm foolish enough to not practice same.
What this crackup should tell you is that you and you alone are responsible for what you buy and sell with your own money. If you don't have your own 'navigational buoys' lined up then you shouldn't be trading. These navigational buoys shift, too, sand bars and shoals shift and move, so the hazards are not always where they used to be. You must adjust your technical analysis, dropping some indicators while emphasizing others more so.
Isn't it odd that we are not hearing from the other captains about how to steer these waters? Were they warning you that a crackup was imminent? Oh, yes, maybe they gave you an oblique warning however faint, but no, they didn't know anymore than you did. What about
Adam Hamilton's rHUI 200-day channel in which the HUI will advance to 40%-something above its 200-day mov. avg.? Or, using the same indicator to buy the HUI when it dips 5% below its 200-dma? These paid newsletter writers always have some "reconstructive literati style" to "explain" how they were correct in their advice afterall! After the fact, baby, Monday morning quarterbacking. Investors can't make money with excuses or explanations as to why a ship is in peaceful repose on the bottom. Oftentimes they'll have another "system" installed to explain away the previous one relied upon by readers for crucial decisions. Most of these gondola boatswain's are no better picking individual stocks either. They figure if they throw enough recommendations up on the wall some will stick. (The failures drift off their radar). Their published "past performance records" are hazy and nebulous at best.
I have been trading stocks - although not always fulltime - since being stationed in Turkey in 1967, and I still can't consistently get it right. Back then I did score big though - Flying Tiger Line! It doesn't make me any better than you, only more scarred. If I could get it right, you'd be paying dearly for this nonsense!
So, for right now I'm in the silver juniors/explorers with both feet. Only a little loose change remains in the till. Optimistically, I'm seeing the volumes are waning, an indication that the flushing is finishing. GLD & SLV are still being unloaded, yes, but when you compare gold/silver equity volumes of today with the week before Christmas and May we are in better shape. I will tell you this, that although I may have committed prematurely, there's no other place I'd rather be. Imagine if you had to make a decision to buy now? Would you?
Sulking in his stateroom,
- - CV
-- Posted 5 January, 2007 | |
