Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 5 December, 2011
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| With Europe teetering on the verge of collapse, the world has been teetering on the verge of a deflationary implosion, and it still is. That is the reason for the recent severe downdraft in the markets. What is believed to be happening now is that the global banking elites, who ARE the de facto government in many countries, like the US, are scrambling to prevent the collapse of their European division. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 20 November, 2011
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| We have had a major rethink since the last update was posted, which was one reason why no update was posted last weekend. This rethink has been occasioned by the rapid tilt towards deflation of the past couple of weeks. In the last update you may recall that we assumed that politicians and world leaders would follow the easiest route of QE which would lead in the direction of hyperinflation, but we really should know by now that you can't assume anything in this business. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 7 November, 2011
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| Silver did what was expected of it last week, by reacting back to support in the $33.50 area, although it very briefly touched $32 intraday on Tuesday, and then, also as expected it bounced back. On the 4-month chart the action last week looks like a normal reaction, that may be a bull Flag, within a young uptrend that was signalled by the clear break above important resistance in the $33 area, which marked the top of the now completed intermediate base pattern. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 30 October, 2011
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| Last week the weight of the evidence suggested that silver was late in a base building process, and our judgement that this was the case was vindicated by subsequent action, when it broke out upside from the intermediate base pattern during the week in response to the inflation positive news out of Europe. This is discussed in some detail in the Gold market update, but suffice it to say here that Europe has decided that it will attempt to print its way out of trouble, just like the US, which is great news for holders of inflation hedges like gold and silver. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 24 October, 2011
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| Over the past week silver has behaved as predicted in the last update, breaking down from its potential Pennant pattern and dropping gently back towards support in the $29 - $30 area, to enter our "accumulation zone" shown on its 4-month chart which turned it higher on Friday, and while the pattern could still be a bear Pennant with an amended lower boundary this is looking considerably less likely - it looks like the Pennant has aborted. It is thus thought that we are late in the base building process. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 17 October, 2011
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| Silver’s 3-wave A-B-C correction is believed to be complete, with the savage A and C waves serving to both flush out and wipe out Large and Small Specs and transfer their assets to Big Money interests. Like gold its suspected bear Pennant of a week ago now looks more like a completing base pattern, and also like gold it has risen to arrive at an important resistance level which is centered on $33. Full Story |
Technical Silver Market Update - October 9, 2011
By: Clive Maund | 9 October, 2011
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| It now looks like we were a little too bullish in the last update, for the way silver has acted over the past week suggests that another sharp drop is imminent before the dust finally settles on this reactive phase, that it likely to take it to or some way below its recent panic lows. Full Story |
Technical Silver Market Update - October 2, 2011
By: Clive Maund | 2 October, 2011
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| In conclusion it would appear that silver has bottomed and that we are now in a base building process that may be completed a lot sooner than would normally be the case. Silver and silver related investments may be accumulated in the "accumulation zone" shown on the 3-month chart, and should be bought aggressively whenever it dips towards the intraday lows of last Monday towards $26, and this would be an excellent zone to go for the leverage of options. Full Story |
Technical Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 25 September, 2011
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| More seriously we now have to consider the implications of last week's plunge which was even more brutal than we had expected, and we were expecting it to be bad. On the year-to-date chart shown above we can see that the C-wave smash phase is now underway in earnest, and that it has already crashed key support at the lower boundary of the large top area shown on the 6-year chart below. With the MACD indicator not yet at the sort of extreme readings that we saw at the tail end of the May smash, and volume high but not yet climactic, more severe downside action is on the horizon regardless of brief intraday "air pocket" bounces that might be occasioned by the short-term oversold condition. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 18 September, 2011
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| Silver has fallen back over the past week as expected, and although its uptrend from late June has now failed, which is viewed as significant, it managed to hold up above nearby support which may generate a bounce early next week. However, this should not be a cause for celebration by silver longs, as overall the picture for silver continues to look precarious in the extreme. We can see why on the year-to-date chart below, which shows that silver appears to be completing the B-wave of a large 3-wave A-B-C decline, the 3rd wave of which, believed to be imminent, is likely to be really severe and will devastate silver longs. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 11 September, 2011
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| The picture for silver looks increasingly ominous and it is suspected that we are close to a major breakdown that will lead to a violent plunge, of a similar nature to that which occurred early in May. The picture has darkened over the past week with increasingly bearish action by gold and a major dollar breakout, that was predicted on the site a few days before it occurred in the article The Great Dollar Shocker. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 28 August, 2011
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| After one more up day silver reacted back with gold as predicted in the last update and then found support at the lower trendline shown on its 6-month chart above its rising 50-day moving average. We now have to be careful with silver because there is widespread rampant bullishness with some extravagent targets being bandied about, and we know what usually happens when that is the case. Also, as set out in the Gold Market update, gold is still way overbought and thought to be vulnerable to a potentially substantial correction. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 21 August, 2011
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| Although we have seen a quite strong rally by silver over the past week as expected, it is hard to reconcile the prospects for a continued rally in silver with the outlook for a substantial reaction by gold soon. This throws our wave count into question and opens up the risk of silver reversing back down from the upper trend channel return line shown on our 6-month chart that it hit on Friday when it enjoyed a strong up day, and also highlights the possibility that the action of the past several months is a bearish Rising Wedge that will be followed by renewed decline, although for this scenario to become a reality, the price would have to break down beneath the lower supporting trendline of tentative converging channel shown. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 16 August, 2011
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| Silver held up surprisingly well during the stockmarket collapse - you will recall that we had expected it to take more of a beating - no doubt assisted by gold's sparkling performance, so that now, having held above strong support, and with a marked improvement in its COT structure over the past week, it is believed to be poised for a really strong upleg. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 7 August, 2011
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| The question that silver investors and speculators should be asking themselves this weekend is what happens if the broad market crash that began late last week continues and even intensifies as is very possible after the Standard & Poor rating downgrade of US debt that was made public, coincidentally you understand, after the markets closed on Friday. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 14 July, 2011
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| Yesterday's high volume breakout above its 50-day moving average marked completion of the intermediate basing pattern and the start of the next major uptrend in silver. Everything is now in place for a substantial uptrend to develop in coming months that should take silver comfortably to new highs. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 26 June, 2011
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| As Stockcharts no longer see fit to run usable charts for silver and various other commodities - line charts are only suitable for schoolkids or journalists doing projects on the markets, not for serious analysis - we are going to use the chart for iShares Silver Trust (SLV) as a stand in for silver. It is a very accurate proxy, and should continue to be, unless of course, the markets were suddenly to discover that they don't have the silver in their vaults that they say they have. Full Story |
SILVER - wanted at $50, not wanted at $35 - TIME TO CALL IN THE PSYCHIATRISTS...
By: Clive Maund | 15 May, 2011
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| Aren´t silver investors funny?? - they were raving bullish when the price was close to $50, now that it's down about $15 and near to $35 they are despondant. In the words of that famed alien with pointed ears, this is "highly illogical". Here on earthbound www.clivemaund.com we have a simpler term for it: "plain nuts". While picking an exact top or bottom is never easy, you can always rely on the collective behaviour of idiots as a guide. So the fact that they are now wary is good news for silver. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 8 May, 2011
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| Silver newbies discovered to their shock and horror last week that silver can actually go down as well as up, and even worse, that it drops a lot faster than it goes up. We were partly fooled ourselves last week by the seemingly bullish COT figures, but not to the extent that it stopped us implementing protection in the form of Puts, or Calls in silver bear ETFs such as ZSL. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 2 May, 2011
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| To say that silver's uptrend looks unsustainable on its long-term charts would rank as one of the understatements of the year, given how incredibly overbought it is on its MACD indicator, yet, as we have observed the latest COT chart does suggest another upleg. You have all heard the saying "Be careful what you wish for - (because you might not like the consequences if it comes true), and that is certainly the case here, for if silver's meltup continues, and gold moves into meltup mode too, which may have just started on Friday, then it probably means a collapse in the dollar - not a drop, a COLLAPSE, that will have disastrous consequences for the US economy and way of life as a result of inflation ramping up in the direction of hyperinflation, which will collapse living standards in the US and destroy the middle class (what's left of it), most of whom will suddenly find gas unaffordable and food very costly. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 3 April, 2011
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| Silver is very overbought and this fact coupled with the dramatic spike in the silver gold ratio would normally be expected to lead to a significant reaction by both gold and silver, as usually happened following such a situation in the past, but these are not normal times. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 27 February, 2011
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| After last week's update called for a near-term top in silver we got one more up day, thanks to the antics of the Libyan "fruitcake" digging his heels in and resisting being swept away. After that silver did indeed start to correct back although it ended the week with an up day. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 20 February, 2011
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| Silver has shown amazing strength in recent weeks, surprising even its staunchest advocates by making light work of recovering the ground lost in the January reaction, and even went as far as to break out to new highs late last week, hugely outperforming gold in the process, which not unnaturally has silver bugs cock-a-hoop. We were looking for a big rally in the last update posted at the end of January and we have not been disappointed. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 30 January, 2011
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| Last weekend`s Silver Market update turned out to be pretty much correct as while silver did drop to new lows for this correction it ended the week with a strong blast of upside energy that is believed to mark a reversal to the upside. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 24 January, 2011
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| While silver has performed as predicted in the last update posted on 11th January and has broken to successive new lows as its correction has progressed, it does not now look like it will drop to the downside targets that we earlier projected. Instead it now looks like we are very close to a reversal to the upside. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 11 January, 2011
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| Silver is now looking vulnerable as last week it clearly broke down from its steep uptrend in force from last August, after making new highs at the turn of the year. As we know from experience, when silver breaks down things can turn ugly fast, and technically the only thing that has preventing it from plunging thus far following the trendline failure has been the support level in the $28 area near to its rising 50-day moving average. Silver is now short-term oversold and one scenario we should take note of here is that it could enter a trading range bounded by this support and the resistance at the highs. However, there are 3 factors in play visible on longer-term charts which suggest that a breakdown and corrective drop is now more likely than a high trading range. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 24 December, 2010
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| You can consider this Silver Market update to be gift wrapped. As I am unable to get presents to each and every reader this year for logistical reasons, these Gold and Silver Market updates are going to have to suffice, which is perfectly reasonable given how bullish they are. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 7 November, 2010
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| Silver's corrective phase turned out to be very short-lived - it only lasted a week before it turned higher again, and then blasted out to new highs on the inflation friendly news from the Fed last week. We can see all of this on the 6-month chart and also how silver is becoming very overbought once more as it approaches the top return line of a tentative parallel uptrend channel - tentative because, like gold, silver is in position to go into parabolic acceleration mode in which, of course, uptrend lines are rendered obsolete, at least temporarily. The current steep uptrend may even approach $30 before silver stops to consolidate/react. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 31 October, 2010
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| We saw a strong rally by silver on Friday that took it to a new closing high, although it did not get above earlier intraday highs. As we can see on our 6-month chart silver did just manage to stay above its uptrend line on the recent reaction, which gives it a chance short-term to break out to new highs, although given the outlook for gold it looks more likely that it will back and fill for a while between the lows of about a week ago and its recent new highs. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 3 October, 2010
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| Two of our three requirements for a major uptrend developing across the Precious Metals sector that were set out in the last Gold and Silver Market updates have now been met - first silver has broken out to clear new highs, then gold broke out above the top line of its potential bearish Rising Wedge - the only condition remaining to be fulfilled is a breakout by the stocks indices - and that may be imminent. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 19 September, 2010
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| Many have been trumpeting a silver breakout over the past week, but while silver has clearly broken out of its Summer triangle, it HAS NOT broken out to clear new highs, although the indications are that it is going to before much longer. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 14 September, 2010
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| The outlook for silver has brightened considerably in recent weeks due to its breaking out upside from the tight Triangle pattern that had developed through the Summer months, although it has yet to break out above its 2008 highs, which is a one crumb of comfort for bears, along with the latest COT figures. Many of the arguments set out in the Gold Market update are equally applicable to silver, to which readers are referred. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 30 August, 2010
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| After looking extremely vulnerable for weeks, silver staged an upside breakout last week that has taken the price away from the danger zone and also signaled a probable breakout to new highs that, should it occur after such a prolonged standoff, can be expected to lead to a powerful uptrend that takes the price to a target area in the high $20’s. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 24 May, 2010
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| Although gold and silver dropped quite sharply last week, longer-term charts reveal that nothing broke technically and the reactions were in fact within normal parameters, and the reaction in silver was actually quite modest, given what could have happened in the circumstances. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 10 May, 2010
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| You have to feel a little sorry for silver. It has been suffering from an identity crisis - it can't make up its mind whether it's an industrial metal or a Precious Metal. You could see this on Thursday when as gold surged and the stockmarket tanked, it hardly moved. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 18 April, 2010
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| Silver did make a little further progress following the last update, but the going was heavy as it battled resistance approaching its December and January highs, and the gains were incremental. With the Goldman Sachs bombshell on Friday, buyers vanished and the price plunged to initiate a probable reactive phase. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 4 April, 2010
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| It looks like we have just stepped off the train before it starts to leave the station - in other words it looks like last week's update was DEAD WRONG. While there were sound reasons for being cautious, such as non-confirmation and the overbought condition of the stockmarket, last week's action in the PM sector has greatly increased the chances that it is going to break higher and embark on a strong advance anyway. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 21 March, 2010
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| Silver never did confirm gold’s breakout to new highs, which has always been grounds for some caution. It has followed the path predicted in the last update to the letter, as can be seen on the older 6-month chart included beneath the current chart below, but has run into trouble this month at resistance at the underside of its earlier broadening channel. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 31 January, 2010
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| After rising up to the return line of a high channel, silver broke lower and then plunged precipitously back to support near its 200-day moving average. We saw this coming and sidestepped it a day before the decline started in earnest, although the rise predicted to follow this reaction now looks way too optimistic given the severe deterioration that has set in across most markets, including in particular the copper and PM stock index breakdowns, which is increasing the risk of another deflationary rout. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 27 December, 2009
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| Last week's update was too bearish - especially as there have been a number of positive developments this week not only in both silver and gold but also with respect to major elements having an important bearing on Precious Metal prices. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 13 December, 2009
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| A bizarre anomaly of gold's recent strong runup was the unusually poor performance of silver, which normally outpaces gold noticably during the middle and later stages of an uptrend. It did not gain any serious traction and is already back below its September peak. The fact that it did not even manage to break out to new highs is taken as a non-confirmation of gold's move, as is the failure of the PM stock indices to make new highs, and is viewed as bearish for the sector over the intermediate-term, meaning the coming 2 to 6 months. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 30 November, 2009
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| While gold has soared in recent weeks silver has put in a plodding performance unable, thus far at least, to break above the zone of major resistance and the return line of the uptrend channel in force from late last year shown on our 2-year chart. Of course, if gold marshalls itself soon and resumes its advance then we can expect silver to overcome these restraining influences. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 15 November, 2009
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| The performance of silver this year relative to gold has been paradoxical - on the one hand it has outperformed gold, while on the other it has yet to make new highs. The explanation for this behaviour is of course the fact that silver got trashed last year during the general market meltdown, when it dropped in percentage terms much more than gold, and thus this year it has had much more ground to make up. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 7 November, 2009
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| Whereas gold has forged ahead to new highs in recent weeks, silver has got bogged down working off overhanging supply, which is the price it is paying for having dropped like a rock last year, so that even though it has risen proportionally more than gold this year, it had so much ground to make up that it still hasn't broken out to new highs. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 4 October, 2009
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| Although we were a shade early the reaction in silver predicted in the last update has now set in, and unfortunately the latest COT charts give little grounds for comfort concerning the immediate future. They suggest that silver will continue to react over the short to medium-term. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 13 September, 2009
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| Human beings have a tendency to forget pain once it has passed, which is of course a good thing, but it is perhaps not so fortunate for many silver traders that they seem to repeatedly forget that silver has a marked tendency to drop much faster than it rises. Over the past couple of weeks silver has risen sharply into the zone of resistance shown on our 3-year chart as investors became excited about the prospects for a gold breakout to new highs, in the process becoming very overbought - critically overbought on its RSI indicator, factors which by themselves give grounds for caution. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 7 September, 2009
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| Silver has made strong gains over the past couple of weeks as gold has broken out upside from its Triangle, but this rapid progress has resulted in it arriving once again at the important resistance level in the $15.90 - $16.40 area in a critically overbought condition. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 23 August, 2009
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| There has been an ususual divergence between silver and gold over the past few weeks - gold's COT structure has improved while silver's has continued to deteriorate, against a background of a technical picture that looks considerably weaker than that for gold. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 17 August, 2009
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| In the last update we had defined silver's overall trend as neutral, with it being rangebound between clearly defined and significant zones of support and resistance, and thus a trading sell towards the top of the range, i.e. on an approach to the $16 area, and a trading buy towards the bottom of it, in the $12 area. Since that update silver has regrouped and made another run at the resistance, but got no further than $15.20. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 9 August, 2009
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| In the last update it was pointed out that silver looked stronger than gold, and it has since outperformed gold significantly, which in itself is a warning that the uptrend in the broad stockmarket is mature. However, the larger trend for silver must be classified as neutral at this time. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 26 July, 2009
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| Although silver moves very much in lockstep with gold, it is looking considerably stronger than gold at this point. The reason for this is its role as an industrial commodity - when the stockmarket is high and rising, as now, silver usually outperforms gold, but once the stockmarket turns, silver then underperforms. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 13 July, 2009
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| Silver has been in a steep intermediate downtrend since early June, but there are signs that this downtrend may soon have run its course, or even have run its course already. On the 1-year chart we can see that having failed to find any serious traction near its 50-day moving average, silver broke lower again towards the important support level shown, which is expected to put a floor under the price, especially as the Cup & Handle formation shown on the chart is a strongly bullish pattern, although it is very possible that its downtrend will end around the current level as it has arrived at the trendline support of a longer-term potential uptrend channel, also shown. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 21 June, 2009
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| We are believed to be at a good entry point for silver here as the overall pattern is strongly bullish, and the predicted reaction of the past few weeks, which has served to unwind the earlier overbought condition, is now thought to have run its course. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 7 June, 2009
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| Silver has behaved pretty much as forecast in the last update posted late in April, entering into a fairly vigorous uptrend that has taken it up to our minimum target at the strong resistance at and above $16. It even paused and reacted at the $14.30 area as predicted. Last week, however, it showed signs of serious technical deterioration, so that even though it is still just within the uptrend, it is thought likely that it will soon break down into a reactive phase, and as silver has a habit of going down one helluva lot faster than it goes up, experienced traders will know what that means. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 26 April, 2009
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| Although it dropped a little below its mid-March hammer low, silver held above the key support identified in the last update, with its rally last week taking it away from the danger zone and opening up again the prospect of an upside breakout from the large Cup & Handle reversal pattern, that should lead to a strong advance. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 19 April, 2009
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| Silver has shown technical deterioration over the past week which is increasing the risk of it aborting the bullish Cup & Handle pattern that we had described in the last update. Specifically it closed below the important support at the mid-March hammer low as a result of Friday`s sharp drop. As we can see on the 1-year chart, it has not yet broken below the important support level shown, so it could still recover from here. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 11 April, 2009
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| The outlook for silver is viewed as very bullish, with a fine Cup and Handle base now approaching completion, that is shown on the accompanying 1-year silver chart. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 23 March, 2009
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| Another point worth observing is that the pattern that has formed from last August - September appears to be a large Head-and-Shoulders bottom, which is best seen on the 1-year chart, but can be made out on our 3-year chart. The pattern is heavily skewed on the chart for silver against other currencies on which it is not really visible. However, if this pattern is valid, its measuring implications call for an advance to the $25 area, probably later or late this year. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 1 March, 2009
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| Like gold, silver is thought likely to mark out a "Handle" consolidation pattern that complements the Cup or Bowl on its chart and leads eventually to renewed advance. This Handle consolidation will likely be bounded by the support level shown in the $12.50 area and the $14 resistance level. In regard to this a break below the lower boundary of the uptrend channel as the consolidation pattern develops will not be regarded as bearish, but a break below the support level would be. Successful completion of the Handle consolidation should lead to a serious assault on the major resistance level in the $16 - $17 area. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 15 February, 2009
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| Silver has advanced in a satisfactory manner to the first target given in the last update at the resistance in the $14 area and is now at a critical juncture, for there are several factors pointing to its breaking down into a reaction shortly. However, it could instead break above the resistance in the $14 area which would be expected to lead to a steep and rapid run at the strong resistance level in the $16 where exhaustion would set in. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 26 January, 2009
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| Silver`s break higher on Friday was an important positive technical development that has cleared the way for a rapid advance towards the resistance in the $14 area. This move negated the potential small Head-and-Shoulders top pattern that appeared to be forming and makes clear that the trading range that had developed following the breakout from the severe downtrend early in December was a zone of consolidation. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 20 January, 2009
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| Silver did as predicted in the last update, dropping back towards $10 from the then price at $11.50. It got down to about $10.20 and then bounced. Now it is clearly rounding over beneath a small Dome distribution pattern, marking out what looks like a small Head-and-Shoulders top. Thus, we can expect a retest of the support in the $10.20 area soon, and should this fail then silver is likely to drop back to the next significant support level near last year's lows in the $8.50 - $9.00 area. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 4 January, 2009
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| Although silver does not look as vulnerable to a reaction as gold on the charts, it will likely drop in sympathy should gold go into reverse near-term as expected. On the 1-year chart we can see that overall silver still looks good, with it having broken decisively out of the downtrend of the latter half of last year and also clear above its 50-day moving average, which has now turned up, with the MACD indicator trending upwards too. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 23 December, 2008
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| Although silver's gains on the recent dollar plunge were relatively modest they were nevertheless technically very significant as they have resulted in it staging a clear breakout from the severe downtrend in force from July, and have thus set the stage for much greater gains in the future. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 20 November, 2008
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| Even though the brutal downtrend in silver that has slashed its price by about 60% from last July remains in force, there are several important signs that it has probably run its course, and that silver is now basing ahead of renewed advance. On the 6-month chart we can see that even though silver plumbed new lows late in October by a sizeable margin, the MACD indicator bottomed way above its August and September lows, showing that downside momentum was decelerating, and it continued to decelerate with the low last week, when the MACD indicator hardly dropped. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 27 October, 2008
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| If we define a bearmarket as the price making a series of lower intermediate lows beneath falling long-term moving averages, then silver is in a bearmarket against the dollar and against the Euro and most other currencies. It is worth recalling, however, that by this definition both gold and silver lapsed into bearmarkets in the mid-1970's, which turned out to be severe corrections in the middle of a major bullmarket, as in the late 70's they picked up again and accelerated into spectacular parabolic blowoff tops. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 20 October, 2008
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| Silver may be classed as a "Precious Metal" but it has certainly not received any special treatment these past few months, during which it has been sold down heavily along with most other commodities, in marked contrast to gold, which has held up well. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 21 September, 2008
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| Although silver investors may be understandably disappointed at its rather muted rally last week compared to that in gold, we should keep in mind that silver makes its best gains towards the end of gold uptrends, not at the start of them, which is where we are now. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 14 September, 2008
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| It is not for nothing that silver is called "poor man's gold" for when the going gets tough it's the poor who disappear first under the wheels of the rich man's carriage. Thus, while the commodities rout has resulted in gold dropping by about a quarter from its highs, silver has plunged by a staggering 50%. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 26 August, 2008
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| Silver is believed to have bottomed. On the 1-year chart we can see how the failure of the clear line of support (now strong resistance) at and above the $16 level led to a savage plunge. It crashed the next line of strong support that we had expected to hold but stabilized not far below it, the decline doubtless being arrested by the unprecedented oversold extreme that it had by this time attained. Full Story |
Silver Market Update - August 10, 2008
By: Clive Maund | 10 August, 2008
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| The silver support level in the $16.00 - $16.50 area finally buckled on Friday in the face of the dollar spike leading to a rapid plunge that has taken the price below its 300-day moving average. We can see this development on the 1-year chart, and how it has opened up the risk of a continued decline to the next support level in the $14 area. Full Story |
Silver Market Update - July 27th, 2008
By: Clive Maund | 27 July, 2008
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| After looking set to challenge its highs silver turned abruptly lower and has fallen substantially over the past couple of weeks for the same reasons as gold, namely collateral damage resulting resulting from the rally in the broad stockmarket as crisis fears eased after the Fannie and Freddie bailout and the falling price of oil. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 14 July, 2008
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| Last week both gold and silver staged important breakouts from base areas to commence major uptrends. This is a development that we had been expecting for quite some time. In this update we will concentrate on the differences worth remarking on in the silver chart, and readers are referred, as usual, to the Gold Market update for the general arguments applicable to both metals. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 21 June, 2008
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| Like gold, silver has been marking out a 3-arc Fan Correction following its March peak, and the chief difference between the two is that silver looks even stronger. On the 1-year chart we can see that silver has marked out a more solid looking base line of support between about $16.20 and $16.50 above its rising 200-day moving average and we can also see that it is closer to breaking out above the 3rd fanline of the fan pattern. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 5 June, 2008
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| The positive implications of silver’s mid-May breakout from a pronounced bullish Falling Wedge downtrend channel have by no means been invalidated by the subsequent rather savage reaction that has got a lot of traders fooled into “thinking grizzly”. Full Story |
Silver - Major Uptrend Alert
By: Clive Maund | 18 May, 2008
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| The technical condition of silver has continued to improve since the last bullish Silver Market update was posted a week ago. This is because it has held above the strong support in the $16 - $16.50 area, and by virtue of moving sideways during last week, it has broken out upside from the bullish Falling Wedge so that it is now in position to take off immediately, and is likely to, especially given that gold has started to lift off, rising strongly on Thursday on Friday. The position of silver, on strong support not far above its rising 200-day moving average, coupled with the strong convergence of the boundary lines of the Falling Wedge just completed are a particularly potent combination pointing to a strong advance very soon. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 11 May, 2008
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| The severely overbought condition that had existed in March has more than completely unwound, as silver is now significantly oversold in the context of its larger uptrend, meaning that upside potential has been fully restored. In short the conditions are now ripe for a powerful uptrend to commence. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 6 April, 2008
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| Although silver dropped back quite sharply last week as expected, in tune with gold, it was interesting to observe that the decline halted EXACTLY at its channel support line shown on our 1-year chart, and that it did not drop below its mid-March low on a closing basis. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 30 March, 2008
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| For reasons set out in full in the Gold Market update we are now adopting a more cautious tack with both gold and silver than that expressed in last week‘s updates, with the steep drop in the Precious Metals over a week ago now being considered to mark the start of a deeper and more prolonged corrective phase. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 24 March, 2008
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| Although it may retreat a little more over the next week or two, Silver is now at/close to buying territory after its violent correction last week. Much of what has been written in the Gold Market update applies equally to silver and so readers are asked to refer to this information in that update. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 13 March, 2008
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| About a week ago in the last Silver Market update we called a SHORT-TERM top in gold and silver, and we got one. As you may recall the timeframe for the reaction was until about the 17th. Although we have seen a reaction it has thus far been modest, and now, after the extraordinary action and events of the past couple of days, it MAY be over. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 10 March, 2008
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| The update last weekend warned of the danger of a severe reaction as silver had become critically overbought. An interesting week has followed with “trench warfare” setting in between the late arrivals at the party and those selling with massive profits. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 3 March, 2008
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| Over the past week or so we have been seeing the acceleration by silver that we expected following its anticipated breakout against the Euro and the Swiss Franc. However, coming on top of strong gains since the low last December, this has resulted in an extremely overbought condition developing. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 27 January, 2008
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| On the long-term 8-year chart we can see that silver is now just breaking out from a massive 20-month consolidation pattern to embark on another major uptrend. If it follows a similar trajectory to the powerful 2005 - 2006 uptrend, which is actually a modest expectation given the fundamental background, then $28 - $30 may be attained within 6 months or so. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 15 January, 2008
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| Silver is at last breaking out of its massive 20-month consolidation pattern. It tried to do this last November, but the attempt was premature and it slumped back into pattern. Now it is expected to succeed and the advance should accelerate noticeably going forward. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 17 December, 2007
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| In the last Silver Market update on 2nd December it was stated that if dollar strength continued as expected, silver could drop below the support zone centered on $14 and head lower towards the next support level in the $13.25 - $13.50 area. Since that time it has held up above the $14 support zone, but it dropped quite sharply late last week on renewed dollar strength and at the time of writing on Sunday 16th it has just broken below this support. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 3 December, 2007
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| Silver’s attempt early last month to break out above its highs of last year is not regarded as a failed breakout, but rather as a preliminary breakout. The reaction since that time has completely neutralized the overbought condition and brought Stochastics back close to their normal oversold limit, as shown on the 6-month chart presented here, and brought it back to a zone of support at the top of the late September - early October trading range, so that the reactive phase is now believed to be close to complete. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 14 November, 2007
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| “Thought I’d broken out didn’t you? - GOTCHA!!” Actually, silver is in the process of breaking out, and a reaction back into pattern was inevitable if gold hit the skids. With the picture for silver now looking at least as bullish longer term the reaction of the past two days is viewed as providing a buying opportunity. Full Story |
The "Child's Guide to Technical Analysis" looks at silver...
By: Clive Maund | 3 November, 2007
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| On the long-term chart we can see that silver is in a fine, strong, long-term uptrend that should soon force an upside breakout above the clear line of resistance approaching the $15 level, leading to another substantial advance that will likely be similar in scale and duration to the powerful run up from September 2005 through May of last year. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 21 October, 2007
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| It is important not to be fooled by the fact that silver hasn’t yet broken out to new highs, unlike gold, and to interpret this as a sign of weakness, for the current setup in silver is very bullish, even if it reacts back significantly short-term as now looks likely. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 8 October, 2007
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| We succeeded in sidestepping a hefty reaction in silver early last week, but while gold has already made good most of its losses of early last week, silver has not - yet, and long positions can therefore be reinstated at a better price, although some traders may prefer to wait for the "triple breakout" referred to in the Gold Market update before going long. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 30 September, 2007
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| Even though recent action in silver has been very positive, with it finally breaking free from the shackles of its “Distribution Dome”, short-term it looks set to react significantly in sympathy with gold, a scenario that is made a lot more likely by last week’s sharp increase in the Commercials’ short positions. The long-term outlook remains strongly bullish, so if the expected short-term reaction occurs it will be viewed as presenting another buying opportunity. Full Story |
Why silver is set to GO THROUGH THE ROOF...
By: Clive Maund | 19 September, 2007
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| It was somewhat odd that despite the extraordinarily bullish COT profile for silver, as of last weekend, gold took center stage and has soared during this week as predicted, despite its COT profile not being as dramatically bullish as that for silver, but that’s fine by us as it has afforded time to get this article up. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 4 September, 2007
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| At first glance the silver chart looks terrible, with last month’s dramatic breakdown below an important support level causing its moving averages to roll over and momentum to break to an 11-month low, and appears to confirm a Double Top with last year’s highs, with the price accelerating away to the downside. So the pullback of the past couple of weeks towards what is now resistance is understandably regarded by many disenchanted bulls as an opportunity to quit in disgust at a slightly better price. However, as we shall see, there is now strong evidence that the August plunge was a final capitulative flushout, Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 22 August, 2007
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| Silver failed to break clear above the Distribution Dome evident on its 2-year chart and paid the price last week when it cratered. This was in marked contrast to gold, which having looked stronger than silver for some time, broke above its Dome and did not break down below important support last week. However, there have been important developments over the past couple of weeks and especially late last week that are believed to be creating a positive environment for gold and silver. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 7 August, 2007
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| Gold has been outperforming silver all year to date, and although this could change anytime, there is no sign of it yet. A recent example is the fact that gold has broken clear out of the restraining “Distribution Dome” shown on its chart, whereas silver has only managed a marginal breakout above its dome pattern. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 12 July, 2007
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| The technical situation for silver closely parallels that for gold and therefore most of the arguments set out in the Gold Market update are applicable to silver. In this update we will therefore confine ourselves to highlighting the important points of difference between the two metals. One important development over the past week or so for silver has been the improvement in its COT structure that has at last given a major buy signal. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 26 June, 2007
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| The silver chart looks “uglier” than the gold chart right now, and with the price rounding over beneath a “Distribution Dome”, a series of lower highs and a trendline break, the downside risk is as obvious as the Marquis de Sade’s nose. However, as with gold it is holding up thus far at a point very close to its long-term moving averages, and there are signs of accumulation in various larger stocks. So it could nevertheless break out upside. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 10 June, 2007
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| The outlook for silver at this time is remarkably similar to that for gold and for the same reason - they are both threatened by a looming substantial rise in the dollar, which if it occurs, as now looks likely, will result in both gold and silver going into retreat and leaving behind large Double Tops on their charts. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 23 May, 2007
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| While looking weaker than gold at this time, silver is expected to turn up shortly for the same reason as gold - the inflationary implications of an impending sharp rise in the oil price – the expected breakout by oil from its large Head-and-Shoulders bottom formation will project it to a minimum target at $80. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 14 May, 2007
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| The silver chart should strike fear into the hearts of silver investors. There is no Ascending Triangle on the chart (from last May’s highs), as some claim, instead the pattern is looking more and more like a large Double Top, with the second peak taking the form of a Head-and-Shoulders top. Before anyone graciously goes to the trouble of enlightening the writer about the wonderful fundamentals for silver, let me say this - don’t bother, I know about them - and so does the market, that’s the trouble, they may already be fully discounted by the market. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 18 April, 2007
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| The silver chart looks considerably less inspiring than the gold chart at this juncture, which is perhaps not so surprising as after outperforming gold last year, it has been underperforming it so far this year. On the 10-year chart the trading range that has followed the ramp from September 2005 through April last year does not look to be of sufficient duration to support another strong advance, and the uptrend channel drawn on this chart looks unsustainably steep and for these reasons the chances of a breakdown are considered to be quite high. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 1 April, 2007
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| The silver chart looks considerably less inspiring than the gold chart at this juncture, which is perhaps not so surprising as after outperforming gold last year, it has been underperforming it so far this year. On the 10-year chart the trading range that has followed the ramp from September 2005 through April last year does not look to be of sufficient duration to support another strong advance, and the uptrend channel drawn on this chart looks unsustainably steep and for these reasons the chances of a breakdown are considered to be quite high. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 4 March, 2007
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| In this Silver Market update we will look briefly at specific developments in the silver chart over the past week. One big difference between silver and gold is that silver failed at resistance at its highs of last year, while gold never managed to get near to its highs. What this means is that silver is, as we have known for some time, outperforming gold, although that may seem rather academic right now. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 25 February, 2007
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| Although silver did not stage such an obviously important breakout as gold last week, it did nevertheless rise in tandem, and succeeded in breaking out above important resistance at its early December highs, putting it in position for “The Big One”, which will be the breakout above last year’s highs at about $15.20, which is an objective that silver, with its propensity for big moves could easily achieve in a single day from the current position. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 14 February, 2007
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| Silver is believed to be slowly limbering up to take out the resistance at and towards last year’s highs, an event that can be expected to lead to a major advance. However, shorter-term the picture is not so bright. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 23 January, 2007
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| Subtle but important changes in recent days have substantially increased the chances of upside breakouts by gold and silver. The situation is now very finely balanced with an army of traders either sat on the fence, or, depending on which way it breaks, on the wrong side of the trade. When it does break out - and it is beginning to look like it will be to the upside, there will be a stampede and an upside breakout from here could thus easily involve a $1 - $1.50 up day for silver. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 14 January, 2007
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| Silver suffered a similar New Year smack down to gold, broke down from a similar intermediate Head-and-Shoulders top area, and broke back above the “neckline” of the pattern on Friday, which is as a result also close to aborting. The strength of the move on Friday indicates that we should see follow through next week, but that the advance will stall out either at the resistance in the $13.25 area, or possibly at the resistance zone in the $13.75 - $15.20 area. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 14 December, 2006
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| Silver continues to look substantially stronger than gold, having put in a much better performance since it broke out from its large triangle pattern late in October, this outperformance being presaged by silver’s triangle being upwardly skewed compared to gold’s. Silver has broken above its early September highs, while gold has failed to break above its July highs and its lower August highs, and silver has come quite close to challenging its April - May peaks, which gold is a long way from doing. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 8 November, 2006
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| Silver has broken out of its large triangular consolidation to commence a new uptrend that should take it comfortably to new highs. The breakout is very obvious on weekly charts, which were included in the THIS IS IT article at the weekend. On the 1-year daily chart we can see this clear breakout and how the triangular consolidation, which, as is customary, brought the price back to the vicinity of the 200-day moving average, has completely unwound the overbought condition that had earlier existed. Full Story |
THIS IS IT - to your stations...
By: Clive Maund | 5 November, 2006
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| One of the dangers of continually being close to the market, is that you can get lost in day to day detail, or even hour to hour detail, and end up not being able to “see the wood for the trees”. A way to counter this tendency is to use weekly or monthly charts, which filter out daily “noise”, and thus highlight changes to the big picture. As we will shortly see, weekly charts reveal that last week was a big one for gold and silver. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 12 October, 2006
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| Like gold, silver is expected to stage a tradable rally soon from about the current level, which, barring an attack on Iran, is likely to get up to about $12.50 before it rolls over again. The parallel stop loss point to that for gold would be failure of the support at $9.50, but as this would result in an unacceptably large loss for anyone buying around the current level, it would make more sense to cut losses in the event that it breaks below the recent low at $10.50, despite their being some risk of being whipsawed out. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 27 September, 2006
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| In the last update posted on the 17th it was predicted that silver would stage a rally to alleviate the oversold condition that existed at that time, and that this rally would take it about $11.60 before it reacted back again. Today silver attained $11.49 intraday. However, this rally was expected to occur against the backdrop of a rally in commodities generally, which has not occurred but now looks set to occur. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 18 September, 2006
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| Silver did its duty and plunged upon breaking down below the support in the $11.75 area. This drop brought it back to the target given in the last update, at $10.50, which it fell to intraday on Friday. Over the short-term, a period of up to 3 weeks, silver is expected to bounce, possibly as high as about $11.60, this being the underside of the former support that is now resistance. Beyond that, over the next month or two, it is expected to go into retreat again and dig deeper into the current support zone, possibly dropping as low as the $9.50 - $10.00 area. This should mark the end of the corrective phase in force since May. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 30 August, 2006
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| Silver is now in position to advance. Although it appears to have “done nothing” price wise over the past month, moving sideways within a narrow range, its technical condition is believed to have improved considerably. In the last update we expected it to react back to the lower boundary of the channel that started from the June low, but instead it has completed a “time correction”, by drifting sideways in a narrow range, sandwiched between support and resistance, marking time until the channel boundary caught up, which it has now done. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 13 August, 2006
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| After a period of gold outperforming silver, the tables have turned and in recent weeks silver has been outperforming gold. Both weakened late last week and look set to react, but whereas gold looks set to react to a support level, silver looks set to react to the lower boundary of an uptrend channel drawn from the June low. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 27 July, 2006
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| The arguments pertaining to gold apply to a large extent to silver too, where this year’s sharp runup towards $15 certainly only ranks as a “Spikelet” in comparison to the monstrous “Hunt Brothers” superspike of 1979, which had opportunists everywhere rushing to the furnace with Aunt Maud’s treasured silver heirlooms to take advantage of the price rocketing towards $40, which, inflation adjusted, was vastly in excess of the recent peak. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 9 July, 2006
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| The last Silver Market update was bullish, but silver has performed more strongly than expected in the intervening period, and like gold, is now vulnerable to a short-term reaction, having risen into an area of strong resistance rather quickly. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 18 June, 2006
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| Silver broke down from a Head-and-Shoulders top area and its decline culminated in a capitulative panic, identical to that in gold, that has brought it down to a parallel zone of strong support in the vicinity of its 200-day moving average, which is a classic “buy spot”. Like gold it is believed to need a period of basing around the current level, that may last for a month or two, before it is ready to go up again. Note that silver may dip a little further short-term, perhaps close to $9, which would be regarded as an excellent buying opportunity. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 13 June, 2006
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| Silver at least had the decency to give us much more warning than gold that it was going to cave in. It marked out a rather fine Head-and-Shoulders top, although the “Right Shoulder” was deceptive as it was very stunted - we had been been looking for a larger one, but remained aware throughout that a break of the neckline of the formation at $11.50 would lead to a rout. Despite being now at strong support, we could see more downside in silver before the decline is over. Another warning was the number of commentators touting the “wonderful fundamentals” of silver. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 5 June, 2006
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| Just as you don’t stop a speeding 100 car train and set it going in the opposite direction at the same speed in a split second, it times time to bring a powerful uptrend to a halt and turn it into a downtrend. A reversal pattern is believed to be forming in silver that looks set to generate a downtrend, although here it must be emphasised that this is an intermediate reversal, not a long-term reversal, and so the larger uptrend should eventually reassert itself, once the corrective phase is complete. Full Story |
Is the Correction Over?
By: Clive Maund | 22 May, 2006
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| The action on Friday was characteristic of a reversal and it was sector wide with Reversal Days showing up in the charts of the gold stock indices and many gold and silver stocks. The action in the metals themselves was less convincing, with silver looking like it had bottomed, at least for now, but gold itself looks rather ambiguous. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 15 May, 2006
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| The jury has returned its verdict - "Silver has double-topped with its April highs". So silver bulls can forget about any new highs for a while. Although silver has powerful bullish forces underpinning it, the same factors that are set to precipitate an intermediate reaction in gold, principally a rally in the dollar, are expected to have a similar effect on silver, although due to the strength of the bullish forces at work in silver, it is considered more likely that a trading range will develop, lasting perhaps several months. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 11 May, 2006
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| Silver is at a critical juncture having succeeded in recouping all of the losses incurred as a result of the violent mid-April plunge, as it is now a whisker below the important resistance at this high. It remains very overbought on an intermediate basis, so the question is whether it will now consolidate/correct, or break higher again. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 20 April, 2006
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| Sentiment reversed at the flick of a switch in the precious metals markets today, especially in Silver, which had become insanely overbought this week. The “Greater Fool” theory was the only law in town and buyers were piling in aware of the markets’ overbought condition, in the belief that they could sell to even bigger idiots later on. This is fine as long as everyone plays the game, but someone evidently shouted “Fire!” in the packed theater today and the result was a stampede for the exits. Full Story |
How to take full advantage of a Silver Superspike
By: Clive Maund | 16 April, 2006
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| I’m not easily astonished these days, but I was pulled up sharp early this weekend by a truly astonishing chart sent to me by a very learned and experienced subscriber in California. This chart is reproduced in two sections below - it had to be split in half as an attempt to reduce its size to fit on the page resulted in serious loss of picture quality. The chart is self explanatory and reveals that, although silver is seriously overbought, it is in a similar technical situation to that which prevailed before the incredible superspike in 1979. Full Story |
SILVER - more evidence...
By: Clive Maund | 12 April, 2006
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| Here's more evidence that the you know what may soon hit the fan for silver. The learned associate who brought this chart to my attention opined that the reason for the drop is that ETF buying is subsiding. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 9 April, 2006
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| Silver has put in an excellent performance over the past few weeks, and the question naturally arises as to how much longer the current near-vertical uptrend can continue. Although cautious in the last update, it was stated that "Although the current intermediate uptrend is definitely getting “long in the tooth", there is scope for further upside before it has run its course, and it may end with a spectacular vertical blow off move that takes it to a short and intermediate-term overbought extreme.” - and that is what we have seen/are seeing. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 22 March, 2006
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| Silver has so far ignored the slowdown in gold and although it reacted instead of pushing higher as expected in the last update, it quickly made good the losses and it even managed to push to new highs last week. The question therefore arises as to how long silver can continue to forge ahead with gold going nowhere, and more particularly, if gold goes into an intermediate decline, as looks likely from its chart and especially from the charts of the gold stock indices. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 5 March, 2006
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| What a superb performance by silver last week - silver investors really can’t ask for better technical action than this, for while it rose a lot on Thursday, the move was not of the silly proportions that would be expected to provoke a significant reaction. In the last update we looked for silver to outperform gold - and it has. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 12 February, 2006
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| The silver chart looks considerably more favourable than the chart for gold right now, and, of course, given that these metals have a tendency to move together, an implication of this is that gold may bust out above the constraining return line of its long-term uptrend channel and go ballistic, an event that looks technically unlikely, but could be occasioned by an extraordinary event such as a surprise attack on Iran, which the media are busy preparing the malleable public mind for. The Iranians are very unlikely to be allowed to get away with opening an oil exchange that trades in anything other than US dollars. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 24 January, 2006
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| What a difference a few hours can make! After posting the article “The Great Silver Standoff”, additional research for a new Silver Market update revealed that on the arithmetic chart, silver has in recent days successfully tested the lower channel line of a fine parallel uptrend channel, and is now in position to break strongly higher, an event that can be expected to trigger another strong rally in gold. Full Story |
The Great Silver Standoff...
By: Clive Maund | 24 January, 2006
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| The immediate outlook for gold very much depends on the outcome of the silver "war of attrition", being fought in the $8.80 - $9.30 zone. Silver’s late December - early January rally stalled out EXACTLY at the early December high, and the metal has since kept everyone guessing - is it making a Double Top or not? The battle has been going on all this month and there are already a lot a dead bodies lying around. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 8 January, 2006
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| Silver is now largely subject to the same dynamics as gold, and this is reflected in the current remarkable similarity between the silver and gold charts. The powerful uptrends in both metals are being driven by the same overriding forces, which are tending to make the fundamental differences in the supply and demand situation between gold and silver look like irrelevant detail. Full Story |
Precious Metals Sector Outlook for 2006...
By: Clive Maund | 29 December, 2005
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| Gold and silver ended up making handsome gains during 2005, and the good news is that 2006 promises to be better still. Both took off during the last four months of the year, to such an extent that a reaction set in towards mid-December, which has partially alleviated the short to medium-term overbought condition that had developed, although in a powerful bull market it should be noted that prices can run an overbought condition for a considerable time. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 18 December, 2005
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| Silver’s action in recent times has quite closely paralleled that of gold and so much of what has been written in the Gold Market update can be taken to apply to silver, except, obviously, prices and support levels. Silver staged a reversal day last Monday after becoming very overbought, similar to that in gold, and then went on to react sharply, although by Wednesday - Thursday it was already stabilizing above support at the April 04 highs in the $8.40 area, which it had earlier succeeded in breaking above by a significant margin. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 5 December, 2005
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| Silver appears to be positioning itself for a major advance, a prospect which will not be dimmed by a short-term reaction. COT figures suggest that a short-term reaction is likely, and this would not be surprising as although the price has broken above the April 04 high at about $8.40 on the US$ chart, the break is so far only marginal. However, the resistance around these highs is not as important as one might think, for the simple reason that silver has broken out to clear new highs against the charts of many other currencies, as detailed in the last update. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 21 November, 2005
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| The fact that silver has already broken out to new highs in some currencies is a strong indication that it is about to do the same against the US dollar. Last week silver broke to a new high against the British Pound and although it had broken out to new high against the Yen early in October, it was not by a decisive margin, however, that changed with last week’s strong advance. What this means is that we can expect to see a breakout to a new high against the US dollar shortly, and the interesting thing is that this is likely to happen whether the dollar is strong or not. Of course, if the dollar suddenly weakens, it can be expected to amplify the move. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 15 November, 2005
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| In the last update it was stated that in the event of the dollar breaking higher, silver would be likely to break below $7.50 and drop back towards its moving averages. The dollar did break higher and silver duly broke below $7.50 and dropped back to its 50-day moving average, bottoming short-term in the $7.35 area, before rallying again. The break below $7.50 means that silver is still in a reactive phase, like gold, and is therefore vulnerable to renewed decline short-term, despite the overbought condition that had developed by mid-October having largely unwound. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 30 October, 2005
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| Silver is in a rather similar situation to gold at present, in that it is now in a trading range, following a breakout to a new high for the year, and appears to be consolidating but is in danger of slipping back in the event of the dollar suddenly breaking higher. The big picture for silver is considerably different to gold, however, for while gold has made a clear break to a hew high, silver remains beneath the resistance of the April and December 04 highs. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 15 October, 2005
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| Silver has done well since the last update, which was bullish, and while it hasn’t exactly gone wild, it has put in a solid performance, breaking out to the highest level so far this year. What is especially significant about this advance is that it has resulted in silver breaking above previous peaks for the first time since the wild speculative high in April 2004. This move signals the probable start of an important intermediate uptrend that should take the price clear above the April 04 high at about $8.50, notwithstanding any short-term consolidation or reaction that may occur. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 24 September, 2005
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| Gold broke out to a clear new high last week, and although silver is still a long way from doing that, it started to show signs of an impending big move. Crucially for silver, the big silver stocks have started to break higher on good volume, and some of these, such as Coeur d’Alene, are looking set to enter major uptrends very soon now. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 11 September, 2005
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| The fact that silver broke below important support nearly 2 weeks ago and then recovered is not regarded as much of a reason to celebrate. Like gold, silver broke down from a long-term uptrend some weeks back (and from a large Symmetrical Triangle pattern), although until the aforementioned break below $6.80, after months of “trench warfare” between bulls and bears during which the “front line“ did not move much, the margin of the breakdown was not regarded as serious. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 28 August, 2005
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| Silver did the exact opposite to what was expected and predicted in the last update. Instead of breaking higher, it broke lower, breaking a key support level at $6.80 that was noted as important months ago. This breakdown is regarded as a potentially very serious development that opens up the risk of a plunge. The reason for this is that after many months of not declaring itself, silver appears to be finally breaking down from the huge triangle that began to form following the April 04 peak. Full Story |
Gold/Silver COTs
By: Clive Maund | 15 August, 2005
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| The silver COT chart shown here is much more benign. Silver is in any case nowhere near as overbought as gold. This chart shows that the Commercials’ short position actually fell slightly over the past week, although the open interest level remains rather high, impeding the chances of a significant rally in the short-term. Given the immediate outlook for gold it is therefore logical to expect silver to back off short-term in tune with a reaction by gold, and any such retreat would provide an opportunity for the open interest level to drop back. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 11 August, 2005
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| We are believed to be on the verge of a substantial advance in silver. This is because gold and gold stocks have broken higher, the dollar has broken down from its intermediate uptrend, and a bullish "hammer candlestick" appeared on the silver chart as it probed support on Tuesday. It is no coincidence that both gold and silver staged marginal breakdowns from their long-term up trends, and both have held key underlying support, which in the case of silver is at about $6.80. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 1 August, 2005
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| Silver broke down from its long-term uptrend line and from its large symmetrical triangle pattern early in July, but the break was marginal and the important support at $6.80 held. Thus it remains in a sort of limbo, pending a decisive breakout that will signal the direction of the next significant move. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 11 July, 2005
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| There is strong circumstantial evidence - furnished by a number of very bullish silver stock charts - that silver is eventually going to break substantially higher, despite the current whipsaw action, which was predicted in the last update. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 26 June, 2005
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| Silver is pushing right into the apex of its 15-month triangle pattern, which means that wild and erratic action is to be expected once it breaks out, which it must now do within a month or two, maximum. Gold also pushed into the apex of its smaller triangle, before proceeding to break out and then whipsaw a lot of market players with wild swings. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 11 June, 2005
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| Silver reacted quite sharply last week from resistance at the March highs, following the buildup of a large “Commercial” short position, and is now at a critical juncture above key support which must hold to avoid the risk of a possibly severe retracement. The 6-month chart shows recent action in detail. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 30 May, 2005
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| Silver has performed very well over the past couple of weeks, especially considering the continued strength in the dollar. It has successfully tested the support of its long-term uptrend line and, having broken higher on Friday, is now in position to make a run at the resistance in the $8 area. We can see recent action including Friday’s breakout on the 6-month chart, and also how the RSI and MACD indicators are turning higher, indicating that silver is now well placed to advance swiftly. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 22 May, 2005
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| Silver has actually held up surprisingly well over the past couple of weeks, given the breakout by the dollar and the severe breakdown by copper, and the breakdown by gold, and should the dollar now turn tail and back off, which is quite likely as it has attained a short-term target (see Gold Market update for details), there is the potential for a sharp relief rally. Full Story |
Precious Metal Stocks at Critical Juncture
By: Clive Maund | 19 May, 2005
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| Silver, however, has so far held up. Copper is mentioned here because its breakdown was rather dramatic and because the outlook for copper has implications for the course of the dollar. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 7 May, 2005
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| The outlook for silver remains much as described in the last update. It remains down on the support of its long-term uptrend line, which also happens to be the lower line of a large symmetrical triangle. A breakout from this large triangular trading range is now drawing closer. Like gold, its fate at this juncture depends largely on the course of the dollar - specifically whether the dollar can succeed in breaking out of its long-term downtrend, or whether it will be overcome by the heavy resistance at and above the current level, and succumb to renewed decline. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 26 April, 2005
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| The silver price has been in a giant contracting trading range for a little over a year now. From a glance at the accompanying 2-year, it is clear that a breakout from the giant symmetrical triangle that has formed is likely soon - probably within the next couple of months. Given the duration and size of this formation it is clear that a substantial move can be expected to follow a breakout. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 11 April, 2005
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| Silver is in position to rally sharply from here, and will do so if the dollar does what’s expected of it, and goes into retreat from here. The reasons for renewed dollar decline are set out in the Gold Market update. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 3 April, 2005
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| Silver rallied as expected last week from an oversold position, having first dropped back to the $6.85 area, but turned sharply lower on Friday. With a limited dollar rally to the 85 - 85.50 area now in prospect, it is likely to dip back to the $6.60 - $6.80 area over the short-term. As with gold, however, a break of the uptrend line going back nearly a year, will not be viewed as serious - especially because this is believed to be a heavily manipulated market, vulnerable to engineered shakeouts. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 21 March, 2005
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| Although looking superficially toppy, and although it is clearly vulnerable to a sharp intra-day dip towards $7.00, the broader picture is that silver appears to be consolidating February’s sharp rise, prior to launching an assault on the resistance in the vicinity of the December highs in the $8 area Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 3 March, 2005
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| Although at first sight silver looks short-term toppy, when one takes into consideration the outlook for gold and the dollar, the action over the past few weeks is viewed as a healthy period of consolidation, following the strong advance during the first half of February. Price action on the 2nd of this month was bullish, revealing significant underlying support, and moving averages are now in bullish alignment, increasing the likelihood of further significant gains. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 20 February, 2005
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| Although silver could spike higher towards $8 from here, the odds favour a reaction short-term, not merely because of the outlook for gold and the dollar, but for its own reasons as well. Although the price continued incrementally higher last week, it has clearly been running into resistance towards $7.50 and upside momentum has waned. The RSI indicator is now at a normal overbought extreme, and the MACD indicator is approaching its normal overbought extreme. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 5 February, 2005
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| Considering what happened to gold and the dollar last week silver held up well, finding support at its 200-day moving average and a little above an important long-term trendline. However, it wouldn’t take much more pressure for this support to crack leading to a swift move down towards support in the $6 area. Silver is a speculative, volatile and possibly highly manipulated market, for this reason, as previously stated, trendlines are not viewed with the same reverence as would otherwise be the case - in other words, failure of this trendline would not necessarily mean “game over”. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 30 January, 2005
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| Silver is a similar story to gold at present, although it has enjoyed a more significant rally since its brief plunge at the turn of the year. It has probably not escaped the notice of many interested in silver that it has had the habit over the past year of losing the gains of many weeks within the space of a couple of days, and if the dollar breaks higher here it is likely to do so again. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 17 January, 2005
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| Although looking a bit "punch drunk" after its recent hammering, the downside for silver is now looking more limited. Price action last week reflected the moves in the dollar, which reacted back from an extremely overbought condition early in the week, only to stabilize and rally again towards the end of the week. Technically, silver is the antithesis of crude oil - the latter is a huge, liquid market which generally behaves itself well, whereas silver is a thin, speculative market, subject to the predations of manipulators, to a degree that is impossible to determine. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 6 January, 2005
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| The technical condition of silver continues to deteriorate, with the failure below the highs of last Spring being compounded by the failure, last week, of the intermediate uptrend in force since last May. This is a considerably weaker picture than that for gold. With the dollar expected to make further gains in coming weeks, the immediate prospect is for a continuation of the current decline initially to support in the $6.10 area, and, should this fail, on down to the stronger support near the lows of last May in the $5.50 area. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 20 December, 2004
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| We have had several bearish developments in silver this month. It failed just beneath its April highs, then it plunged precipitously and in the process broke down from a long-term parabolic uptrend. That said, silver does have a habit of staging violent shakeouts and then going on to gather itself together before advancing again. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 12 December, 2004
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| Gold and silver both plunged precipitously on Wednesday, and both broke down from parabolic uptrends. The decline in silver was much more severe than that in gold, and more serious, as it broke down from an uptrend in force since late 2002. The break of the parabolic uptrends in gold and silver does not mean "game over" for these markets. What it signifies is that the trends had become unsustainably steep, and that a less steep uptrend should resume in due course. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 5 December, 2004
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| Silver broke out strongly above the top line of the rising trend channel that had contained the price since its May low, as expected. This is an important development, as this line had been tempering and moderating the advance for months but now, as long as the price can remain above it, it is in position to accelerate significantly, and challenge and take out last April’s high, which fits what is unfolding in gold, which is also well placed to accelerate. Rapid and substantial gains should follow a break above the highs around $8.40. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 20 November, 2004
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| While gold’s rate of rise has accelerated significantly over the past couple of weeks, silver has only succeeded in moving ahead incrementally. The reason for this is plain to see on the 6-month chart - the price is continuing to be restrained at the top return line of a clearly defined trend channel. Looking at this chart in isolation we would probably conclude that it is more likely to retreat than advance from here - which is why we are not looking at this chart in isolation. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 6 November, 2004
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| Last week the focus was on gold as it limbered up for its breakout above key resistance in the $430 area, and this was appropriate also for silver investors, as a successful breakout by gold above this hugely important strategic level will have a very positive effect on the silver price. In fact, silver has already done its "heavy lifting" by breaking out above its key $7 resistance level, and then consolidating its position above $7. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 27 October, 2004
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| With the dollar having fallen to its first downside target, and now short-term oversold and on strong support, and gold still beneath strong resistance at $430, silver looks vulnerable to a short-term reaction here that may see it dip back below $7 once more, as the dollar trades sideways or stages a feeble rally. The precipitous nature of the dollar decline however means that, after a brief respite to unwind its oversold condition, perhaps lasting several weeks, it is likely to crash its next support level, at which time gold should break out above $430 and silver should surge higher. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 20 October, 2004
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| Silver behaved as predicted, backing off sharply to test support in the high $6’s, and is now well placed to advance strongly in the event of the dollar going into an accelerating decline and gold breaking out above $430, both of which could now happen quickly. Once it is established above $7 to the extent that the $7 level can be relied upon to provide strong support, a rapid and substantial advance will become increasingly likely. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 13 October, 2004
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| Having attained the short-term target highlighted in the “Marketwatch” for Monday, silver is now reacting heavily. It was also pointed out in that article that the price had not risen sufficiently above $7 for that price level to provide significant support on the way down - and it hasn’t, with the price down at $6.84 on Wednesday morning as I write. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 7 October, 2004
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| Silver has shown remarkable strength this week, breaking above an important resistance level without much help from either copper or gold, which have yet to break above their key resistance levels. The extent of the move was not so important as the fact that it took on and overcame the strong resistance at $7, which had caused it to react briefly but sharply on Monday. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 27 September, 2004
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| Silver has staged a hesitant recovery following the "plungelet" in early September which revealed the continuing fragility of this market following the vicious plunge back in April. On the plus side the price has, so far, remained above the parabolic uptrend visible on the 2-year chart. The sort of action we have seen this month, a sharp decline followed by a weak, hesistant recovery is normally followed by renewed decline. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 20 September, 2004
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| The silver chart continues to look shaky and it is very important that the support at $6 holds. The indications are contradictory. On the one hand the violence of the declines that have occurred at intervals this year is bearish, indicating a nervous market populated by aggressive speculators. On the other hand silver is now down on a parabolic rising uptrend clearly visible on the 2-year chart, that should, in a dollar down and gold up scenario, project prices to much higher levels. Full Story |
Silver - "An Economic Geologists Perspective"
By: Nigel H Maund | 24 July, 2004
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| The fundamentals behind the world silver market are looking increasingly strong. Silver bullion stocks of central and investment banks are at an all time low, or, in many cases, totally depleted. The demand for silver, especially in the diverse high technology and medical market segments (40%) is steadily increasing, as is the investment market segment in silver coins and bullion. The analogue or standard photographic segment, a substantial industrial market for silver, diminished in the last calendar year by a matter of a few percent only, despite the much vaunted demise of the silver market posed by advent of digital photography. A substantial proportion; i.e., 70% of the "Old Silver Scrap" market, comprising some 22% of the total market supply, was provided through the recycling of photographic film and paper. Full Story |
Silver Market Review
By: Clive Maund | 2 June, 2004
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| Silver plunged violently in April, making huge gaps down. Normally, this behaviour is characteristic of a blow-off top, and ushers in a bear market. Of course, this interpretation does not square with the seemingly bullish fundamentals, and silver bulls have two basic explanations for this plunge. The first is that the market had become too frothy and that therefore the plunge was a healthy clearout of speculative excess. The other is that the silver market has been cornered by an elite group of powerful players, who have the muscle to manipulate smaller players and periodically flush them out. Due to the extraordinarily steep and violent decline in April, this latter explanation seems plausible to me, as what we witnessed was certainly no ordinary correction, the action was more like that of a volatile penny stock. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 1 June, 2004
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| The medium-term outlook is good, with the dollar having broken down from its 3-month countertrend rally and looking set to plunge, and gold picking up after nicely after a successful test of its long-term trendline. We can therefore expect a strong rally by silver, once this basing action is complete. Full Story |