Silver broke down from its long-term uptrend line and from its large symmetrical triangle pattern early in July, but the break was marginal and the important support at $6.80 held. Thus it remains in a sort of limbo, pending a decisive breakout that will signal the direction of the next significant move.
In this situation it is wise to presume that the larger trend remains up, at least while the aforementioned support at $6.80 holds, especially as the dollar advance appears to have run out of steam and a number of silver stocks have marked out exceptionally bullish long-term chart patterns, which is hardly what you would expect to see if silver was about to go into a significant decline. Some of these silver stocks have been highlighted on the site in recent weeks.
Silver and silver stocks should be accumulated on short-term weakness, in the expectation that the larger uptrend will reassert itself, and the current situation has the advantage that fairly tight stops can be employed to limit losses in the event that it breaks down.
The COT figures are encouraging, as the accompanying chart shows, being at the most bullish (or least bearish) for about a year. The open interest is still rather high, however, indicating that we may see some more weeks of floundering around before a decisive move occurs.
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