Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 11 May, 2008
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| The severely overbought condition that had existed in March has more than completely unwound, as silver is now significantly oversold in the context of its larger uptrend, meaning that upside potential has been fully restored. In short the conditions are now ripe for a powerful uptrend to commence. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 6 April, 2008
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| Although silver dropped back quite sharply last week as expected, in tune with gold, it was interesting to observe that the decline halted EXACTLY at its channel support line shown on our 1-year chart, and that it did not drop below its mid-March low on a closing basis. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 30 March, 2008
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| For reasons set out in full in the Gold Market update we are now adopting a more cautious tack with both gold and silver than that expressed in last week‘s updates, with the steep drop in the Precious Metals over a week ago now being considered to mark the start of a deeper and more prolonged corrective phase. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 24 March, 2008
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| Although it may retreat a little more over the next week or two, Silver is now at/close to buying territory after its violent correction last week. Much of what has been written in the Gold Market update applies equally to silver and so readers are asked to refer to this information in that update. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 13 March, 2008
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| About a week ago in the last Silver Market update we called a SHORT-TERM top in gold and silver, and we got one. As you may recall the timeframe for the reaction was until about the 17th. Although we have seen a reaction it has thus far been modest, and now, after the extraordinary action and events of the past couple of days, it MAY be over. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 10 March, 2008
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| The update last weekend warned of the danger of a severe reaction as silver had become critically overbought. An interesting week has followed with “trench warfare” setting in between the late arrivals at the party and those selling with massive profits. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 3 March, 2008
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| Over the past week or so we have been seeing the acceleration by silver that we expected following its anticipated breakout against the Euro and the Swiss Franc. However, coming on top of strong gains since the low last December, this has resulted in an extremely overbought condition developing. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 27 January, 2008
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| On the long-term 8-year chart we can see that silver is now just breaking out from a massive 20-month consolidation pattern to embark on another major uptrend. If it follows a similar trajectory to the powerful 2005 - 2006 uptrend, which is actually a modest expectation given the fundamental background, then $28 - $30 may be attained within 6 months or so. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 15 January, 2008
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| Silver is at last breaking out of its massive 20-month consolidation pattern. It tried to do this last November, but the attempt was premature and it slumped back into pattern. Now it is expected to succeed and the advance should accelerate noticeably going forward. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 17 December, 2007
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| In the last Silver Market update on 2nd December it was stated that if dollar strength continued as expected, silver could drop below the support zone centered on $14 and head lower towards the next support level in the $13.25 - $13.50 area. Since that time it has held up above the $14 support zone, but it dropped quite sharply late last week on renewed dollar strength and at the time of writing on Sunday 16th it has just broken below this support. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 3 December, 2007
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| Silver’s attempt early last month to break out above its highs of last year is not regarded as a failed breakout, but rather as a preliminary breakout. The reaction since that time has completely neutralized the overbought condition and brought Stochastics back close to their normal oversold limit, as shown on the 6-month chart presented here, and brought it back to a zone of support at the top of the late September - early October trading range, so that the reactive phase is now believed to be close to complete. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 14 November, 2007
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| “Thought I’d broken out didn’t you? - GOTCHA!!” Actually, silver is in the process of breaking out, and a reaction back into pattern was inevitable if gold hit the skids. With the picture for silver now looking at least as bullish longer term the reaction of the past two days is viewed as providing a buying opportunity. Full Story |
The "Child's Guide to Technical Analysis" looks at silver...
By: Clive Maund | 3 November, 2007
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| On the long-term chart we can see that silver is in a fine, strong, long-term uptrend that should soon force an upside breakout above the clear line of resistance approaching the $15 level, leading to another substantial advance that will likely be similar in scale and duration to the powerful run up from September 2005 through May of last year. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 21 October, 2007
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| It is important not to be fooled by the fact that silver hasn’t yet broken out to new highs, unlike gold, and to interpret this as a sign of weakness, for the current setup in silver is very bullish, even if it reacts back significantly short-term as now looks likely. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 8 October, 2007
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| We succeeded in sidestepping a hefty reaction in silver early last week, but while gold has already made good most of its losses of early last week, silver has not - yet, and long positions can therefore be reinstated at a better price, although some traders may prefer to wait for the "triple breakout" referred to in the Gold Market update before going long. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 30 September, 2007
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| Even though recent action in silver has been very positive, with it finally breaking free from the shackles of its “Distribution Dome”, short-term it looks set to react significantly in sympathy with gold, a scenario that is made a lot more likely by last week’s sharp increase in the Commercials’ short positions. The long-term outlook remains strongly bullish, so if the expected short-term reaction occurs it will be viewed as presenting another buying opportunity. Full Story |
Why silver is set to GO THROUGH THE ROOF...
By: Clive Maund | 19 September, 2007
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| It was somewhat odd that despite the extraordinarily bullish COT profile for silver, as of last weekend, gold took center stage and has soared during this week as predicted, despite its COT profile not being as dramatically bullish as that for silver, but that’s fine by us as it has afforded time to get this article up. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 4 September, 2007
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| At first glance the silver chart looks terrible, with last month’s dramatic breakdown below an important support level causing its moving averages to roll over and momentum to break to an 11-month low, and appears to confirm a Double Top with last year’s highs, with the price accelerating away to the downside. So the pullback of the past couple of weeks towards what is now resistance is understandably regarded by many disenchanted bulls as an opportunity to quit in disgust at a slightly better price. However, as we shall see, there is now strong evidence that the August plunge was a final capitulative flushout, Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 22 August, 2007
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| Silver failed to break clear above the Distribution Dome evident on its 2-year chart and paid the price last week when it cratered. This was in marked contrast to gold, which having looked stronger than silver for some time, broke above its Dome and did not break down below important support last week. However, there have been important developments over the past couple of weeks and especially late last week that are believed to be creating a positive environment for gold and silver. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 7 August, 2007
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| Gold has been outperforming silver all year to date, and although this could change anytime, there is no sign of it yet. A recent example is the fact that gold has broken clear out of the restraining “Distribution Dome” shown on its chart, whereas silver has only managed a marginal breakout above its dome pattern. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 12 July, 2007
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| The technical situation for silver closely parallels that for gold and therefore most of the arguments set out in the Gold Market update are applicable to silver. In this update we will therefore confine ourselves to highlighting the important points of difference between the two metals. One important development over the past week or so for silver has been the improvement in its COT structure that has at last given a major buy signal. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 26 June, 2007
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| The silver chart looks “uglier” than the gold chart right now, and with the price rounding over beneath a “Distribution Dome”, a series of lower highs and a trendline break, the downside risk is as obvious as the Marquis de Sade’s nose. However, as with gold it is holding up thus far at a point very close to its long-term moving averages, and there are signs of accumulation in various larger stocks. So it could nevertheless break out upside. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 10 June, 2007
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| The outlook for silver at this time is remarkably similar to that for gold and for the same reason - they are both threatened by a looming substantial rise in the dollar, which if it occurs, as now looks likely, will result in both gold and silver going into retreat and leaving behind large Double Tops on their charts. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 23 May, 2007
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| While looking weaker than gold at this time, silver is expected to turn up shortly for the same reason as gold - the inflationary implications of an impending sharp rise in the oil price – the expected breakout by oil from its large Head-and-Shoulders bottom formation will project it to a minimum target at $80. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 14 May, 2007
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| The silver chart should strike fear into the hearts of silver investors. There is no Ascending Triangle on the chart (from last May’s highs), as some claim, instead the pattern is looking more and more like a large Double Top, with the second peak taking the form of a Head-and-Shoulders top. Before anyone graciously goes to the trouble of enlightening the writer about the wonderful fundamentals for silver, let me say this - don’t bother, I know about them - and so does the market, that’s the trouble, they may already be fully discounted by the market. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 18 April, 2007
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| The silver chart looks considerably less inspiring than the gold chart at this juncture, which is perhaps not so surprising as after outperforming gold last year, it has been underperforming it so far this year. On the 10-year chart the trading range that has followed the ramp from September 2005 through April last year does not look to be of sufficient duration to support another strong advance, and the uptrend channel drawn on this chart looks unsustainably steep and for these reasons the chances of a breakdown are considered to be quite high. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 1 April, 2007
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| The silver chart looks considerably less inspiring than the gold chart at this juncture, which is perhaps not so surprising as after outperforming gold last year, it has been underperforming it so far this year. On the 10-year chart the trading range that has followed the ramp from September 2005 through April last year does not look to be of sufficient duration to support another strong advance, and the uptrend channel drawn on this chart looks unsustainably steep and for these reasons the chances of a breakdown are considered to be quite high. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 4 March, 2007
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| In this Silver Market update we will look briefly at specific developments in the silver chart over the past week. One big difference between silver and gold is that silver failed at resistance at its highs of last year, while gold never managed to get near to its highs. What this means is that silver is, as we have known for some time, outperforming gold, although that may seem rather academic right now. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 25 February, 2007
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| Although silver did not stage such an obviously important breakout as gold last week, it did nevertheless rise in tandem, and succeeded in breaking out above important resistance at its early December highs, putting it in position for “The Big One”, which will be the breakout above last year’s highs at about $15.20, which is an objective that silver, with its propensity for big moves could easily achieve in a single day from the current position. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 14 February, 2007
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| Silver is believed to be slowly limbering up to take out the resistance at and towards last year’s highs, an event that can be expected to lead to a major advance. However, shorter-term the picture is not so bright. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 23 January, 2007
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| Subtle but important changes in recent days have substantially increased the chances of upside breakouts by gold and silver. The situation is now very finely balanced with an army of traders either sat on the fence, or, depending on which way it breaks, on the wrong side of the trade. When it does break out - and it is beginning to look like it will be to the upside, there will be a stampede and an upside breakout from here could thus easily involve a $1 - $1.50 up day for silver. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 14 January, 2007
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| Silver suffered a similar New Year smack down to gold, broke down from a similar intermediate Head-and-Shoulders top area, and broke back above the “neckline” of the pattern on Friday, which is as a result also close to aborting. The strength of the move on Friday indicates that we should see follow through next week, but that the advance will stall out either at the resistance in the $13.25 area, or possibly at the resistance zone in the $13.75 - $15.20 area. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 14 December, 2006
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| Silver continues to look substantially stronger than gold, having put in a much better performance since it broke out from its large triangle pattern late in October, this outperformance being presaged by silver’s triangle being upwardly skewed compared to gold’s. Silver has broken above its early September highs, while gold has failed to break above its July highs and its lower August highs, and silver has come quite close to challenging its April - May peaks, which gold is a long way from doing. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 8 November, 2006
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| Silver has broken out of its large triangular consolidation to commence a new uptrend that should take it comfortably to new highs. The breakout is very obvious on weekly charts, which were included in the THIS IS IT article at the weekend. On the 1-year daily chart we can see this clear breakout and how the triangular consolidation, which, as is customary, brought the price back to the vicinity of the 200-day moving average, has completely unwound the overbought condition that had earlier existed. Full Story |
THIS IS IT - to your stations...
By: Clive Maund | 5 November, 2006
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| One of the dangers of continually being close to the market, is that you can get lost in day to day detail, or even hour to hour detail, and end up not being able to “see the wood for the trees”. A way to counter this tendency is to use weekly or monthly charts, which filter out daily “noise”, and thus highlight changes to the big picture. As we will shortly see, weekly charts reveal that last week was a big one for gold and silver. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 12 October, 2006
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| Like gold, silver is expected to stage a tradable rally soon from about the current level, which, barring an attack on Iran, is likely to get up to about $12.50 before it rolls over again. The parallel stop loss point to that for gold would be failure of the support at $9.50, but as this would result in an unacceptably large loss for anyone buying around the current level, it would make more sense to cut losses in the event that it breaks below the recent low at $10.50, despite their being some risk of being whipsawed out. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 27 September, 2006
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| In the last update posted on the 17th it was predicted that silver would stage a rally to alleviate the oversold condition that existed at that time, and that this rally would take it about $11.60 before it reacted back again. Today silver attained $11.49 intraday. However, this rally was expected to occur against the backdrop of a rally in commodities generally, which has not occurred but now looks set to occur. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 18 September, 2006
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| Silver did its duty and plunged upon breaking down below the support in the $11.75 area. This drop brought it back to the target given in the last update, at $10.50, which it fell to intraday on Friday. Over the short-term, a period of up to 3 weeks, silver is expected to bounce, possibly as high as about $11.60, this being the underside of the former support that is now resistance. Beyond that, over the next month or two, it is expected to go into retreat again and dig deeper into the current support zone, possibly dropping as low as the $9.50 - $10.00 area. This should mark the end of the corrective phase in force since May. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 30 August, 2006
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| Silver is now in position to advance. Although it appears to have “done nothing” price wise over the past month, moving sideways within a narrow range, its technical condition is believed to have improved considerably. In the last update we expected it to react back to the lower boundary of the channel that started from the June low, but instead it has completed a “time correction”, by drifting sideways in a narrow range, sandwiched between support and resistance, marking time until the channel boundary caught up, which it has now done. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 13 August, 2006
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| After a period of gold outperforming silver, the tables have turned and in recent weeks silver has been outperforming gold. Both weakened late last week and look set to react, but whereas gold looks set to react to a support level, silver looks set to react to the lower boundary of an uptrend channel drawn from the June low. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 27 July, 2006
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| The arguments pertaining to gold apply to a large extent to silver too, where this year’s sharp runup towards $15 certainly only ranks as a “Spikelet” in comparison to the monstrous “Hunt Brothers” superspike of 1979, which had opportunists everywhere rushing to the furnace with Aunt Maud’s treasured silver heirlooms to take advantage of the price rocketing towards $40, which, inflation adjusted, was vastly in excess of the recent peak. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 9 July, 2006
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| The last Silver Market update was bullish, but silver has performed more strongly than expected in the intervening period, and like gold, is now vulnerable to a short-term reaction, having risen into an area of strong resistance rather quickly. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 18 June, 2006
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| Silver broke down from a Head-and-Shoulders top area and its decline culminated in a capitulative panic, identical to that in gold, that has brought it down to a parallel zone of strong support in the vicinity of its 200-day moving average, which is a classic “buy spot”. Like gold it is believed to need a period of basing around the current level, that may last for a month or two, before it is ready to go up again. Note that silver may dip a little further short-term, perhaps close to $9, which would be regarded as an excellent buying opportunity. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 13 June, 2006
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| Silver at least had the decency to give us much more warning than gold that it was going to cave in. It marked out a rather fine Head-and-Shoulders top, although the “Right Shoulder” was deceptive as it was very stunted - we had been been looking for a larger one, but remained aware throughout that a break of the neckline of the formation at $11.50 would lead to a rout. Despite being now at strong support, we could see more downside in silver before the decline is over. Another warning was the number of commentators touting the “wonderful fundamentals” of silver. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 5 June, 2006
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| Just as you don’t stop a speeding 100 car train and set it going in the opposite direction at the same speed in a split second, it times time to bring a powerful uptrend to a halt and turn it into a downtrend. A reversal pattern is believed to be forming in silver that looks set to generate a downtrend, although here it must be emphasised that this is an intermediate reversal, not a long-term reversal, and so the larger uptrend should eventually reassert itself, once the corrective phase is complete. Full Story |
Is the Correction Over?
By: Clive Maund | 22 May, 2006
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| The action on Friday was characteristic of a reversal and it was sector wide with Reversal Days showing up in the charts of the gold stock indices and many gold and silver stocks. The action in the metals themselves was less convincing, with silver looking like it had bottomed, at least for now, but gold itself looks rather ambiguous. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 15 May, 2006
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| The jury has returned its verdict - "Silver has double-topped with its April highs". So silver bulls can forget about any new highs for a while. Although silver has powerful bullish forces underpinning it, the same factors that are set to precipitate an intermediate reaction in gold, principally a rally in the dollar, are expected to have a similar effect on silver, although due to the strength of the bullish forces at work in silver, it is considered more likely that a trading range will develop, lasting perhaps several months. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 11 May, 2006
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| Silver is at a critical juncture having succeeded in recouping all of the losses incurred as a result of the violent mid-April plunge, as it is now a whisker below the important resistance at this high. It remains very overbought on an intermediate basis, so the question is whether it will now consolidate/correct, or break higher again. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 20 April, 2006
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| Sentiment reversed at the flick of a switch in the precious metals markets today, especially in Silver, which had become insanely overbought this week. The “Greater Fool” theory was the only law in town and buyers were piling in aware of the markets’ overbought condition, in the belief that they could sell to even bigger idiots later on. This is fine as long as everyone plays the game, but someone evidently shouted “Fire!” in the packed theater today and the result was a stampede for the exits. Full Story |
How to take full advantage of a Silver Superspike
By: Clive Maund | 16 April, 2006
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| I’m not easily astonished these days, but I was pulled up sharp early this weekend by a truly astonishing chart sent to me by a very learned and experienced subscriber in California. This chart is reproduced in two sections below - it had to be split in half as an attempt to reduce its size to fit on the page resulted in serious loss of picture quality. The chart is self explanatory and reveals that, although silver is seriously overbought, it is in a similar technical situation to that which prevailed before the incredible superspike in 1979. Full Story |
SILVER - more evidence...
By: Clive Maund | 12 April, 2006
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| Here's more evidence that the you know what may soon hit the fan for silver. The learned associate who brought this chart to my attention opined that the reason for the drop is that ETF buying is subsiding. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 9 April, 2006
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| Silver has put in an excellent performance over the past few weeks, and the question naturally arises as to how much longer the current near-vertical uptrend can continue. Although cautious in the last update, it was stated that "Although the current intermediate uptrend is definitely getting “long in the tooth", there is scope for further upside before it has run its course, and it may end with a spectacular vertical blow off move that takes it to a short and intermediate-term overbought extreme.” - and that is what we have seen/are seeing. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 22 March, 2006
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| Silver has so far ignored the slowdown in gold and although it reacted instead of pushing higher as expected in the last update, it quickly made good the losses and it even managed to push to new highs last week. The question therefore arises as to how long silver can continue to forge ahead with gold going nowhere, and more particularly, if gold goes into an intermediate decline, as looks likely from its chart and especially from the charts of the gold stock indices. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 5 March, 2006
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| What a superb performance by silver last week - silver investors really can’t ask for better technical action than this, for while it rose a lot on Thursday, the move was not of the silly proportions that would be expected to provoke a significant reaction. In the last update we looked for silver to outperform gold - and it has. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 12 February, 2006
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| The silver chart looks considerably more favourable than the chart for gold right now, and, of course, given that these metals have a tendency to move together, an implication of this is that gold may bust out above the constraining return line of its long-term uptrend channel and go ballistic, an event that looks technically unlikely, but could be occasioned by an extraordinary event such as a surprise attack on Iran, which the media are busy preparing the malleable public mind for. The Iranians are very unlikely to be allowed to get away with opening an oil exchange that trades in anything other than US dollars. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 24 January, 2006
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| What a difference a few hours can make! After posting the article “The Great Silver Standoff”, additional research for a new Silver Market update revealed that on the arithmetic chart, silver has in recent days successfully tested the lower channel line of a fine parallel uptrend channel, and is now in position to break strongly higher, an event that can be expected to trigger another strong rally in gold. Full Story |
The Great Silver Standoff...
By: Clive Maund | 24 January, 2006
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| The immediate outlook for gold very much depends on the outcome of the silver "war of attrition", being fought in the $8.80 - $9.30 zone. Silver’s late December - early January rally stalled out EXACTLY at the early December high, and the metal has since kept everyone guessing - is it making a Double Top or not? The battle has been going on all this month and there are already a lot a dead bodies lying around. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 8 January, 2006
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| Silver is now largely subject to the same dynamics as gold, and this is reflected in the current remarkable similarity between the silver and gold charts. The powerful uptrends in both metals are being driven by the same overriding forces, which are tending to make the fundamental differences in the supply and demand situation between gold and silver look like irrelevant detail. Full Story |
Precious Metals Sector Outlook for 2006...
By: Clive Maund | 29 December, 2005
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| Gold and silver ended up making handsome gains during 2005, and the good news is that 2006 promises to be better still. Both took off during the last four months of the year, to such an extent that a reaction set in towards mid-December, which has partially alleviated the short to medium-term overbought condition that had developed, although in a powerful bull market it should be noted that prices can run an overbought condition for a considerable time. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 18 December, 2005
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| Silver’s action in recent times has quite closely paralleled that of gold and so much of what has been written in the Gold Market update can be taken to apply to silver, except, obviously, prices and support levels. Silver staged a reversal day last Monday after becoming very overbought, similar to that in gold, and then went on to react sharply, although by Wednesday - Thursday it was already stabilizing above support at the April 04 highs in the $8.40 area, which it had earlier succeeded in breaking above by a significant margin. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 5 December, 2005
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| Silver appears to be positioning itself for a major advance, a prospect which will not be dimmed by a short-term reaction. COT figures suggest that a short-term reaction is likely, and this would not be surprising as although the price has broken above the April 04 high at about $8.40 on the US$ chart, the break is so far only marginal. However, the resistance around these highs is not as important as one might think, for the simple reason that silver has broken out to clear new highs against the charts of many other currencies, as detailed in the last update. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 21 November, 2005
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| The fact that silver has already broken out to new highs in some currencies is a strong indication that it is about to do the same against the US dollar. Last week silver broke to a new high against the British Pound and although it had broken out to new high against the Yen early in October, it was not by a decisive margin, however, that changed with last week’s strong advance. What this means is that we can expect to see a breakout to a new high against the US dollar shortly, and the interesting thing is that this is likely to happen whether the dollar is strong or not. Of course, if the dollar suddenly weakens, it can be expected to amplify the move. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 15 November, 2005
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| In the last update it was stated that in the event of the dollar breaking higher, silver would be likely to break below $7.50 and drop back towards its moving averages. The dollar did break higher and silver duly broke below $7.50 and dropped back to its 50-day moving average, bottoming short-term in the $7.35 area, before rallying again. The break below $7.50 means that silver is still in a reactive phase, like gold, and is therefore vulnerable to renewed decline short-term, despite the overbought condition that had developed by mid-October having largely unwound. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 30 October, 2005
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| Silver is in a rather similar situation to gold at present, in that it is now in a trading range, following a breakout to a new high for the year, and appears to be consolidating but is in danger of slipping back in the event of the dollar suddenly breaking higher. The big picture for silver is considerably different to gold, however, for while gold has made a clear break to a hew high, silver remains beneath the resistance of the April and December 04 highs. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 15 October, 2005
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| Silver has done well since the last update, which was bullish, and while it hasn’t exactly gone wild, it has put in a solid performance, breaking out to the highest level so far this year. What is especially significant about this advance is that it has resulted in silver breaking above previous peaks for the first time since the wild speculative high in April 2004. This move signals the probable start of an important intermediate uptrend that should take the price clear above the April 04 high at about $8.50, notwithstanding any short-term consolidation or reaction that may occur. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 24 September, 2005
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| Gold broke out to a clear new high last week, and although silver is still a long way from doing that, it started to show signs of an impending big move. Crucially for silver, the big silver stocks have started to break higher on good volume, and some of these, such as Coeur d’Alene, are looking set to enter major uptrends very soon now. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 11 September, 2005
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| The fact that silver broke below important support nearly 2 weeks ago and then recovered is not regarded as much of a reason to celebrate. Like gold, silver broke down from a long-term uptrend some weeks back (and from a large Symmetrical Triangle pattern), although until the aforementioned break below $6.80, after months of “trench warfare” between bulls and bears during which the “front line“ did not move much, the margin of the breakdown was not regarded as serious. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 28 August, 2005
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| Silver did the exact opposite to what was expected and predicted in the last update. Instead of breaking higher, it broke lower, breaking a key support level at $6.80 that was noted as important months ago. This breakdown is regarded as a potentially very serious development that opens up the risk of a plunge. The reason for this is that after many months of not declaring itself, silver appears to be finally breaking down from the huge triangle that began to form following the April 04 peak. Full Story |
Gold/Silver COTs
By: Clive Maund | 15 August, 2005
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| The silver COT chart shown here is much more benign. Silver is in any case nowhere near as overbought as gold. This chart shows that the Commercials’ short position actually fell slightly over the past week, although the open interest level remains rather high, impeding the chances of a significant rally in the short-term. Given the immediate outlook for gold it is therefore logical to expect silver to back off short-term in tune with a reaction by gold, and any such retreat would provide an opportunity for the open interest level to drop back. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 11 August, 2005
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| We are believed to be on the verge of a substantial advance in silver. This is because gold and gold stocks have broken higher, the dollar has broken down from its intermediate uptrend, and a bullish "hammer candlestick" appeared on the silver chart as it probed support on Tuesday. It is no coincidence that both gold and silver staged marginal breakdowns from their long-term up trends, and both have held key underlying support, which in the case of silver is at about $6.80. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 1 August, 2005
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| Silver broke down from its long-term uptrend line and from its large symmetrical triangle pattern early in July, but the break was marginal and the important support at $6.80 held. Thus it remains in a sort of limbo, pending a decisive breakout that will signal the direction of the next significant move. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 11 July, 2005
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| There is strong circumstantial evidence - furnished by a number of very bullish silver stock charts - that silver is eventually going to break substantially higher, despite the current whipsaw action, which was predicted in the last update. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 26 June, 2005
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| Silver is pushing right into the apex of its 15-month triangle pattern, which means that wild and erratic action is to be expected once it breaks out, which it must now do within a month or two, maximum. Gold also pushed into the apex of its smaller triangle, before proceeding to break out and then whipsaw a lot of market players with wild swings. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 11 June, 2005
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| Silver reacted quite sharply last week from resistance at the March highs, following the buildup of a large “Commercial” short position, and is now at a critical juncture above key support which must hold to avoid the risk of a possibly severe retracement. The 6-month chart shows recent action in detail. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 30 May, 2005
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| Silver has performed very well over the past couple of weeks, especially considering the continued strength in the dollar. It has successfully tested the support of its long-term uptrend line and, having broken higher on Friday, is now in position to make a run at the resistance in the $8 area. We can see recent action including Friday’s breakout on the 6-month chart, and also how the RSI and MACD indicators are turning higher, indicating that silver is now well placed to advance swiftly. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 22 May, 2005
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| Silver has actually held up surprisingly well over the past couple of weeks, given the breakout by the dollar and the severe breakdown by copper, and the breakdown by gold, and should the dollar now turn tail and back off, which is quite likely as it has attained a short-term target (see Gold Market update for details), there is the potential for a sharp relief rally. Full Story |
Precious Metal Stocks at Critical Juncture
By: Clive Maund | 19 May, 2005
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| Silver, however, has so far held up. Copper is mentioned here because its breakdown was rather dramatic and because the outlook for copper has implications for the course of the dollar. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 7 May, 2005
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| The outlook for silver remains much as described in the last update. It remains down on the support of its long-term uptrend line, which also happens to be the lower line of a large symmetrical triangle. A breakout from this large triangular trading range is now drawing closer. Like gold, its fate at this juncture depends largely on the course of the dollar - specifically whether the dollar can succeed in breaking out of its long-term downtrend, or whether it will be overcome by the heavy resistance at and above the current level, and succumb to renewed decline. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 26 April, 2005
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| The silver price has been in a giant contracting trading range for a little over a year now. From a glance at the accompanying 2-year, it is clear that a breakout from the giant symmetrical triangle that has formed is likely soon - probably within the next couple of months. Given the duration and size of this formation it is clear that a substantial move can be expected to follow a breakout. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 11 April, 2005
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| Silver is in position to rally sharply from here, and will do so if the dollar does what’s expected of it, and goes into retreat from here. The reasons for renewed dollar decline are set out in the Gold Market update. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 3 April, 2005
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| Silver rallied as expected last week from an oversold position, having first dropped back to the $6.85 area, but turned sharply lower on Friday. With a limited dollar rally to the 85 - 85.50 area now in prospect, it is likely to dip back to the $6.60 - $6.80 area over the short-term. As with gold, however, a break of the uptrend line going back nearly a year, will not be viewed as serious - especially because this is believed to be a heavily manipulated market, vulnerable to engineered shakeouts. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 21 March, 2005
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| Although looking superficially toppy, and although it is clearly vulnerable to a sharp intra-day dip towards $7.00, the broader picture is that silver appears to be consolidating February’s sharp rise, prior to launching an assault on the resistance in the vicinity of the December highs in the $8 area Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 3 March, 2005
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| Although at first sight silver looks short-term toppy, when one takes into consideration the outlook for gold and the dollar, the action over the past few weeks is viewed as a healthy period of consolidation, following the strong advance during the first half of February. Price action on the 2nd of this month was bullish, revealing significant underlying support, and moving averages are now in bullish alignment, increasing the likelihood of further significant gains. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 20 February, 2005
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| Although silver could spike higher towards $8 from here, the odds favour a reaction short-term, not merely because of the outlook for gold and the dollar, but for its own reasons as well. Although the price continued incrementally higher last week, it has clearly been running into resistance towards $7.50 and upside momentum has waned. The RSI indicator is now at a normal overbought extreme, and the MACD indicator is approaching its normal overbought extreme. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 5 February, 2005
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| Considering what happened to gold and the dollar last week silver held up well, finding support at its 200-day moving average and a little above an important long-term trendline. However, it wouldn’t take much more pressure for this support to crack leading to a swift move down towards support in the $6 area. Silver is a speculative, volatile and possibly highly manipulated market, for this reason, as previously stated, trendlines are not viewed with the same reverence as would otherwise be the case - in other words, failure of this trendline would not necessarily mean “game over”. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 30 January, 2005
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| Silver is a similar story to gold at present, although it has enjoyed a more significant rally since its brief plunge at the turn of the year. It has probably not escaped the notice of many interested in silver that it has had the habit over the past year of losing the gains of many weeks within the space of a couple of days, and if the dollar breaks higher here it is likely to do so again. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 17 January, 2005
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| Although looking a bit "punch drunk" after its recent hammering, the downside for silver is now looking more limited. Price action last week reflected the moves in the dollar, which reacted back from an extremely overbought condition early in the week, only to stabilize and rally again towards the end of the week. Technically, silver is the antithesis of crude oil - the latter is a huge, liquid market which generally behaves itself well, whereas silver is a thin, speculative market, subject to the predations of manipulators, to a degree that is impossible to determine. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 6 January, 2005
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| The technical condition of silver continues to deteriorate, with the failure below the highs of last Spring being compounded by the failure, last week, of the intermediate uptrend in force since last May. This is a considerably weaker picture than that for gold. With the dollar expected to make further gains in coming weeks, the immediate prospect is for a continuation of the current decline initially to support in the $6.10 area, and, should this fail, on down to the stronger support near the lows of last May in the $5.50 area. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 20 December, 2004
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| We have had several bearish developments in silver this month. It failed just beneath its April highs, then it plunged precipitously and in the process broke down from a long-term parabolic uptrend. That said, silver does have a habit of staging violent shakeouts and then going on to gather itself together before advancing again. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 12 December, 2004
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| Gold and silver both plunged precipitously on Wednesday, and both broke down from parabolic uptrends. The decline in silver was much more severe than that in gold, and more serious, as it broke down from an uptrend in force since late 2002. The break of the parabolic uptrends in gold and silver does not mean "game over" for these markets. What it signifies is that the trends had become unsustainably steep, and that a less steep uptrend should resume in due course. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 5 December, 2004
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| Silver broke out strongly above the top line of the rising trend channel that had contained the price since its May low, as expected. This is an important development, as this line had been tempering and moderating the advance for months but now, as long as the price can remain above it, it is in position to accelerate significantly, and challenge and take out last April’s high, which fits what is unfolding in gold, which is also well placed to accelerate. Rapid and substantial gains should follow a break above the highs around $8.40. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 20 November, 2004
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| While gold’s rate of rise has accelerated significantly over the past couple of weeks, silver has only succeeded in moving ahead incrementally. The reason for this is plain to see on the 6-month chart - the price is continuing to be restrained at the top return line of a clearly defined trend channel. Looking at this chart in isolation we would probably conclude that it is more likely to retreat than advance from here - which is why we are not looking at this chart in isolation. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 6 November, 2004
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| Last week the focus was on gold as it limbered up for its breakout above key resistance in the $430 area, and this was appropriate also for silver investors, as a successful breakout by gold above this hugely important strategic level will have a very positive effect on the silver price. In fact, silver has already done its "heavy lifting" by breaking out above its key $7 resistance level, and then consolidating its position above $7. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 27 October, 2004
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| With the dollar having fallen to its first downside target, and now short-term oversold and on strong support, and gold still beneath strong resistance at $430, silver looks vulnerable to a short-term reaction here that may see it dip back below $7 once more, as the dollar trades sideways or stages a feeble rally. The precipitous nature of the dollar decline however means that, after a brief respite to unwind its oversold condition, perhaps lasting several weeks, it is likely to crash its next support level, at which time gold should break out above $430 and silver should surge higher. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 20 October, 2004
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| Silver behaved as predicted, backing off sharply to test support in the high $6’s, and is now well placed to advance strongly in the event of the dollar going into an accelerating decline and gold breaking out above $430, both of which could now happen quickly. Once it is established above $7 to the extent that the $7 level can be relied upon to provide strong support, a rapid and substantial advance will become increasingly likely. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 13 October, 2004
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| Having attained the short-term target highlighted in the “Marketwatch” for Monday, silver is now reacting heavily. It was also pointed out in that article that the price had not risen sufficiently above $7 for that price level to provide significant support on the way down - and it hasn’t, with the price down at $6.84 on Wednesday morning as I write. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 7 October, 2004
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| Silver has shown remarkable strength this week, breaking above an important resistance level without much help from either copper or gold, which have yet to break above their key resistance levels. The extent of the move was not so important as the fact that it took on and overcame the strong resistance at $7, which had caused it to react briefly but sharply on Monday. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 27 September, 2004
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| Silver has staged a hesitant recovery following the "plungelet" in early September which revealed the continuing fragility of this market following the vicious plunge back in April. On the plus side the price has, so far, remained above the parabolic uptrend visible on the 2-year chart. The sort of action we have seen this month, a sharp decline followed by a weak, hesistant recovery is normally followed by renewed decline. Full Story |
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund | 20 September, 2004
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| The silver chart continues to look shaky and it is very important that the support at $6 holds. The indications are contradictory. On the one hand the violence of the declines that have occurred at intervals this year is bearish, indicating a nervous market populated by aggressive speculators. On the other hand silver is now down on a parabolic rising uptrend clearly visible on the 2-year chart, that should, in a dollar down and gold up scenario, project prices to much higher levels. Full Story |
Silver - "An Economic Geologists Perspective"
By: Nigel H Maund | 24 July, 2004
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| The fundamentals behind the world silver market are looking increasingly strong. Silver bullion stocks of central and investment banks are at an all time low, or, in many cases, totally depleted. The demand for silver, especially in the diverse high technology and medical market segments (40%) is steadily increasing, as is the investment market segment in silver coins and bullion. The analogue or standard photographic segment, a substantial industrial market for silver, diminished in the last calendar year by a matter of a few percent only, despite the much vaunted demise of the silver market posed by advent of digital photography. A substantial proportion; i.e., 70% of the "Old Silver Scrap" market, comprising some 22% of the total market supply, was provided through the recycling of photographic film and paper. Full Story |
Silver Market Review
By: Clive Maund | 2 June, 2004
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| Silver plunged violently in April, making huge gaps down. Normally, this behaviour is characteristic of a blow-off top, and ushers in a bear market. Of course, this interpretation does not square with the seemingly bullish fundamentals, and silver bulls have two basic explanations for this plunge. The first is that the market had become too frothy and that therefore the plunge was a healthy clearout of speculative excess. The other is that the silver market has been |