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Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up – How Far for the Fed?

By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker


-- Posted 3 February, 2006 | | Source: SilverSeek.com

Market Analysis from GoldSeek.com, SilverSeek.com & CapitalUpdates.com:

 

Report

For

Reading

Expected

Previous

Nonfarm Payrolls

Jan

193K

250K

140K

Unemployment Rate

Jan

4.7%

4.9%

4.9%

Hourly Earnings

Jan

0.4%

0.3%

0.4%

Average Workweek

Jan

33.8

33.8

33.8

Michigan Sentiment

Jan

91.2

93.1

93.4

Factory Orders

Dec

1.1%

1.0%

3.3%

ISM Services

Jan

56.8

60.0

61.0

 

Upward revisions to prior Nonfarm Payrolls, stronger than expected Hourly Earnings, and an Unemployment Rate that dropped to a 4 year low indicated strong economic growth and inflation to most on Wall Street and that led many to believe that the fed will continue to raise interest rates even after the expected hike in March.  The BLS net birth/death adjustment subtracted 193,000 payrolls, a smaller subtraction than normal for the month of January.

 

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Close

Gain/Loss

On Week

Gold

$567.10

-$5.10

+1.54%

Silver

$9.71

-$0.11

+1.46%

XAU

147.75

-2.87%

+0.65%

HUI

332.29

-3.00%

+2.46%

GDM

1036.13

-2.53%

+1.32%

JSE Gold

3098.47

-3.46%

+1.68%

USD

89.89

+0.51

+0.65%

Euro

120.23

-0.79

-0.70%

Yen

84.08

-0.33

-1.75%

Oil

$65.37

+$0.69

-3.53%

10-Year

4.533%

-0.028

+0.67%

Bond

113.28125

+0.5625

+0.33%

Dow

10793.62

-0.54%

-1.04%

Nasdaq

2262.58

-0.83%

-1.81%

S&P

1264.03

-0.54%

-1.53%

 

This week’s economic reports:

 

ISM Services - January

56.8 v. 61.0

 

Factory Orders - December

1.1% v. 3.3%

 

Michigan Sentiment - January

91.2 v. 93.4

 

Nonfarm Payrolls - January

193K v. 140K

 

Unemployment Rate - January

4.7% v. 4.9%

 

Hourly Earnings - January

0.4% v. 0.4%

 

Average Workweek - January

33.8 v. 33.8

 

Initial Claims - 1/28

273K v. 284K

 

Productivity - Q4

-0.6% v. 4.5%

 

ISM Index - January

54.8 v. 55.6

 

Construction Spending - December

1.0% v. 0.5%

 

FOMC - January

4.5% v. 4.25%

 

Consumer Confidence - January

106.3 v. 103.8

 

Chicago PMI - January

58.5 v. 60.8

 

Employment Cost Index - Q4

0.8% v. 0.8%

 

Personal Spending - December

0.9% v. 0.5%

 

Personal Income - December

0.4% v. 0.4%

 

Next week’s economic highlights are the Trade Balance and Treasury Budget on Friday.

 

Gold Warehouse Stocks:

7,318,378

-

Silver Warehouse Stocks:

125,393,536

-

 

Cot Reports: Gold | Silver  

 

Gold and silver remained mixed and near unchanged in Asia and London and found slight gains in early New York trade, but they then both sold off about 1% in midmorning trade and remained near their lows into the close to fall from recent 25 and 18 and ¾ year highs.

 

Gold and silver equities dropped about 3% in the first hour of trade and remained near that level for the rest of the day.

 

Euro gold remained near all-time highs above €470, platinum lost $7 to $1065, palladium gained $8 to $312 to a new 21 month high, and copper made new all-time highs above $2.30.

 

More Precious Metals Analysis:

 

“After trading to new 25-year highs yesterday, gold closed lower on the day today, pressured by the stronger dollar and weaker energy prices. The dollar rallied on upwardly revised US payroll numbers, which raised expectations for higher US interest rates. Traders are showing some concern that the market is getting overbought after rallying $80 rally since December 21st.” - The Hightower Report, Futures Analysis and Forecasting

 

“Gold held up remarkably well in New York trading Friday with buyers coming into the market on even the slightest corrections.  Despite the U.S. Dollar Index’s run-up today to the 90 level, precious metals are only giving up slight gains near the end of trading for the week. 

 

As noted of late, the metal equities are taking a much welcome breather and correcting from very strong gains recently.  The HUI now holds good resistance around 350 with the XAU around the 154-156 level.  Pullbacks have been short-lived though and any indication of an additional leg higher in the metal prices brings back buyers.

 

Gold’s downside as we start the next trading week off is likely to be quite limited with strong fund activity continuing as continuing inflows into the ETF’s continues.  Gold is still favoring a run higher here to and possibly beyond $600.  Silver remains set to re-test $10 and into the low teens still.” – Peter Spina of www.goldforecaster.com

 

The U.S. dollar index gained on what was perceived as strong economic data that pointed to further interest rate hikes.

 

Oil traded slightly higher ahead of a decision “from the International Atomic Energy Agency on referring Iran to the U.N. Security Council over its nuclear program.”

 

Treasuries started off lower on the prospect for further interest rate hikes, but they then rebounded on high demand for the 30-year bond.  $14 billion of the 30-year bond will be auctioned off next week for the first time in over 4 years and it is already generating a lot of interest in the bond pits.

 

The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P fell on worries about further interest rate hikes.

 

Among the big names making news in the market Friday were Amazon, Moody’s, Weyerhaeuser, and Maytag.

 

Gold & Silver Stock News Update from GoldReview.com:

 

Western Silver’s drill results at Penasco, Tan Range’s private placement, Kinross Gold’s update on late filing of financial statements, and Centerra Gold’s mining license for the Kumtor mine were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines Friday.

 

WINNERS

1.      Minco Mining

MMK +16.57% $1.97

2.      Orezone Resources

OZN +6.25% $2.21

3.  Nevsun Resources

NSU +4.15% $2.26

 

LOSERS

1.       Gold Fields

GFI -6.39% $22.40

2.       Gold Reserve

GRZ -4.4% $5.43

3.  Eldorado Gold

EGO -4.37% $4.82

         

All of Friday's gold and silver stock news:

Tagish Closes Private Placement - More
- February 03, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Aldridge Minerals Inc. Completes Transaction on Turkish Tenements - More
- February 03, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Tan Range Announces Private Placement Subscription Agreements Aggregating US$2.5 million - "Tan Range Exploration Corporation advises that Mr. Sinclair, Chairman and CEO, and Guild Investment Management, Inc. have each subscribed for a placement of common shares of the Company for an aggregate US$2.5 million. Under the Subscription Agreements, Mr. Sinclair has agreed to subscribe for 183,440 common shares at a price of C$7.844 per share. Mr. Sinclair's subscription price is not discounted and represents the five- day weighted average trading price of the common shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange for the period ended January 24, 2006." More
- February 03, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Kinross Provides Status Update on Late Filing of Financial Statements - "Pursuant to the alternative information guidelines of the Ontario Securities Commission Policy 57-603 and Canadian Securities Administrators Staff Notice 57-301, Kinross is providing a notice to the market regarding a restatement of its prior financial statements and an update on the process relating to the preparation and filing of its financial statements and related matters, until such time as Kinross is current with its filing obligations under Canadian securities laws." More
- February 03, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Mayfair Mining & Minerals, Inc. Joins the Corporate Council on Africa - More
- February 03, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Centerra Gold Reports Kumtor Southwest Zone Mining License Granted by Kyrgyz Republic - "Centerra Gold Inc. today announced that this week it received a mining license and now has all necessary permits for the development of the Southwest Zone, located 3 km from the Kumtor mill. On January 23, 2006 Centerra announced that the Southwest Zone probable reserves are estimated at 2.8 million tonnes at 3.2 g/t gold for 283,000 ounces of contained gold." More
- February 03, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Aurelian Completes Scout Drilling on Camp Copper Porphyry and Moves Rig to Fruta Del Norte Gold Target - More
- February 03, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Moydow Exploration And Development Update - More
- February 03, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Inspiration Raises $1,235,000 - More
- February 03, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Significant Infill and Extension Drilling Results at Moto Gold Project - More
- February 03, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Atlantis Business Development Corporation Subsidiary Signed LOI With Equitable Mining Corp. for a Joint Venture Agreement - More
- February 03, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Matamec Closes a Private Placement with SODEMEX Options to a Director: Payment in Shares of Accrued Interest on Convertible Debenture - More
- February 03, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Osisko Options Malartic CHL Prospect - More
- February 03, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Paramount Gold Adds Important Ground Adjacent to Their San Miguel Project in Mexico - More
- February 03, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Golden Valley Mines Ltd.: Malartic CHL Prospect Optioned to Osisko Exploration Ltd. - More
- February 03, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Cusac Found to Own 30.4% of 1.04 Million Ounce Taurus Resource as American Bonanza Corrects Press Release - More
- February 03, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Western Silver Phase 16B Drilling Extends Penasco Mineralzation to the West - "Western Silver Corporation today announced that assay results from Phase 16B drilling have extended the mineralized zone at Penasco by at least 150 meters to the southwest. One hole, WC-338, drilled at -60 degrees from east to west, was mineralized from 162 meters to 806 meters with a 420 meter interval (beginning at 386 meters) averaging 0.91 g/t gold, 55 g/t silver, 0.60% lead and 1.00% zinc." More
- February 03, 2006 | Item | E-mail


 

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Do you have questions, comments, or suggestions about this report?  Email Chris Mullen at cm@goldseek.com

         

- Written by Chris Mullen

 

 

Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed stocks that trade over $1.

 

The Gold Seeker Closing Report is a free edition providing a daily wrap-up of gold & gold-related news.  For more in-depth analysis of the gold markets, subscribe to The Gold Forecaster.

 

All sources are given within the report and most articles can be found as they are released at http://www.capitalupdates.com/, http://www.goldseek.com/, http://www.silverseek.com/, and http://www.goldreview.com/.

 

© Gold Seeker 2006

Note: This article may be reproduced provided the article, in full, is used and mention to Gold-Seeker.com is given.

 

 

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-- Posted 3 February, 2006 | |


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