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Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up – Gold & Silver Lose Over 4% & 2% on the Week

By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker


-- Posted 6 October, 2006 | | Source: SilverSeek.com

Note: Monday is Canada's Thanksgiving Day and the Canadian markets will be closed.  Monday is also Columbus Day in the US and banks, government offices, and the bond market is closed, but the US stock markets are open as usual.

 

 

Close

Gain/Loss

On Week

Gold

$572.20

+$1.00

-4.43%

Silver

$11.08

+$0.11

-2.89%

XAU

124.20

-0.58%

-3.29%

HUI

291.95

-0.58%

-2.84%

GDM

931.91

-0.65%

-3.71%

JSE Gold

2847.80

-0.23%

+1.59%

USD

86.54

+0.63

+0.66%

Euro

126.07

-0.89

-0.59%

Yen

84.12

-0.91

-0.66%

Oil

$59.76

-$0.27

-5.01%

10-Year

4.696%

+0.088

+1.36%

Bond

111.5625

-0.9375

-0.75%

Dow

11850.21

-0.14%

+1.47%

Nasdaq

2299.99

-0.28%

+1.84%

S&P

1349.58

-0.27%

+1.03%

 

The Metals:

 

Gold remained near unchanged in a range of about $569-$573 in Asia and London before it fell in early New York trade to as low as $559.80 at one point, but it then rallied into the close and ended slightly higher on the day.  Silver traded mostly slightly higher in Asia and London before it fell in morning New York trade to as low as $10.75 at one point, but it also rallied into the close and ended with a gain of 1%.

 

Euro gold rose above €455, platinum lost $5 to $1,070, palladium gained $2 to $297, and copper rose over 5 cents to about $3.42.

 

Gold and silver equities fell about 2% in the first ½ hour of trade and then quickly rallied higher to find slight gains about a ½ hour later, but they then slowly fell back off a bit and ended with about 0.5% losses.

 

The Economy:

 

Report

For

Reading

Expected

Previous

Nonfarm Payrolls

Sep

51K

120K

188K

Unemployment Rate

Sep

4.6%

4.7%

4.7%

Hourly Earnings

Sep

0.2%

0.3%

0.2%

Average Workweek

Sep

33.8

33.8

33.8

Consumer Credit

Aug

$4.99B

$5.5B

$8.35B

 

While September’s Nonfarm Payrolls came in much less than expected (including a BLS net birth/death adjustment of adding 28,000 payrolls), upward revisions to past payroll data suggested strength in the economy and offset September’s shortfall.  August’s data was revised up by 60,000 payrolls and “job growth during the 12 months ended in March may have been about 45 percent higher than previously reported. In a preliminary estimate, the Labor Department said payrolls for the 12 months ended in March 2006 will be revised higher by 810,000, the biggest revision since the Labor Department started benchmarking numbers in 1991.”

 

“Separately, the Economic Cycle Research Institute says its Future Inflation Gauge dropped to 120.3 in September, marking a 14-month low. That compares to an August figure of 121.7.”

 

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All of this week’s economic reports:

 

Consumer Credit - August

$4.99B v. $8.35B

 

Nonfarm Payrolls - September

51K v. 188K

 

Unemployment Rate - September

4.6% v. 4.7%

 

Hourly Earnings - September

0.2% v. 0.2%

 

Average Workweek - September

33.8 v. 33.8

 

Initial Claims - 9/30

302K v. 319K

 

ISM Services - September

52.9 v. 57.0

 

Factory Orders - August

0.0% v. -1.0%

 

ISM Index - September

52.9 v. 54.5

 

Construction Spending - August

0.3% v. -0.3

 

Next week’s economic highlights include the Treasury Budget and Wholesale Inventories on Tuesday, FOMC minutes on Wednesday, the Trade Balance, Initial Jobless Claims, and the fed’s Beige Book on Thursday, and Export Prices, Import Prices, Retail Sales, Michigan Sentiment, and Business Inventories on Friday.

 

The Markets:

 

Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/

 

Oil fell on ample supplies as OPEC has so far not officially announced a deal to cut output.

 

The U.S. dollar index rose and treasuries fell despite September’s weak payroll data as hopes for a possible interest rate cut were diminished by upward revisions to past payroll data.

 

The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P fell as September’s payrolls came in much less than expected.  Bad news used to be good news for the major indices as it raised hopes that the fed would stop raising interest rates or possibly even cut rates, but huge upward revisions to prior payroll data indicate that the economy is strong and influences the fed to not only not cut rates, but maybe even consider hiking them again.  Given all of this, today’s bad news was simply just bad news for the markets again.

 

Among the big names making news in the market Friday were GM and Renault-Nissan, Google and YouTube, Rolls-Royce, Atlas Copco, Chattem and J&J and Pfizer, Crown Castle and Global Signal, Cerberus, and Amaranth.

 

The Commentary:

 

“What this suggests is The Gold Cartel crowd is running out of enough available physical supply to keep the price down for extended periods of time. Yes, they can bomb both markets with derivatives and a tranche of gold and silver physical here and there, but they don’t have enough sustained supply to keep the prices down. Demand is just too strong. They must retreat and attack again, using every trick in the book to win the day for a few weeks or months.

 

A specific example of this was offered to us by the Bundesbank’s Weber, who just admitted some central banks were (are) looking to swap gold with his bank to bomb the market. Did he comply? Either way, it shows some one was (is) in urgent need to secure physical supply of gold. Thus, IMO, we are coming closer to the day (either the weeks before or after the US elections) in which the prices of gold and silver go bonkers, as the bad guys are forced to retreat for many months to come … at least until gold and silver make multi-year highs.”- From yesterday’s Midas report by Bill Murphy of LemetropoleCafe.com

 

“December Gold finished up 1.3 at 576.8, 1.5 off the high and 12.3 up from the low.

 

December Silver closed up 0.105 at 11.175. This was 0.305 up from the low and 0.035 off the high.

 

The gold market was fortunate to have avoided more significant selling pressure on Friday, as the outside market forces were patently negative. In fact, in addition to a disappointing Non-farm Payroll reading, the gold market also saw another moderate failure in oil prices and what could be considered a critical upside breakout in the US Dollar. While there were some indications that the US was poised to Press the UN for action toward North Korea, the gold market only seemed to give passing interest to the prospect for flight to quality buying. In the end, the gold trade must have accepted the Treasury markets interpretation of the US payrolls, which somehow managed to see the numbers as generally supportive to ongoing growth in the economy. Some traders suggested that the recovery action in oil prices after an initial washout left the message that oil prices might have actually found a bottom and that would certainly help to underpin gold prices.

 

Given the typical fundamental focus in silver it is quite surprising that prices held together during the action Friday. However, a strong rally in the copper market seemed to give the silver trade confidence and some have even suggested that the outlook for the US economy is holding together well enough that international demand for silver might be expected to underpin prices above the recent lows. Certainly Indian demand has recently been rumored to be supporting the market and certainly the return of China to normal trade in the coming week might inspire some value hunting buying. With the silver market generally finishing the week minimally above the level where the last positioning report was measured its possible that the trade will accept the idea that the spec and fund long position is showing signs of leveling out and that might be considered by some, to be a technical signal of an impending low.”- The Hightower Report, Futures Analysis and Forecasting

 

GATA Posts:

 

 

John Embry's address to the Silver Summit

Newmont President Lassonde speaks at CMRE dinner meeting in NYC Oct. 19

James Turk: Precious metals bending but not breaking

Gold selloff driven by central banks, not investors

Barrick switches from hedging gold to hedging copper

Refusing to sell gold in 2007, Bundesbank offers its quota to other central banks

Barclays suspects sneaky accounting of recent central bank gold sales

Just how much gold did central banks really sell?

 

The Statistics:

As of close of business: 10/5/2006

Gold Warehouse Stocks:

7,793,219

-96,169

Silver Warehouse Stocks:

105,220,490

-

 

Global Gold ETF Holdings

[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]

 

 

Product name

Total Tonnes

Total Ounces

Total Value

New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)

Streettracks Gold Shares

389.34

12,517,589

US$ 7,176m

LSE (London Stock Exchange) AND Euronext Paris

Gold Bullion Securities

79.24

2,547,651

US$ 1,459m

Australian Stock Exchange (ASX)

Gold Bullion Securities

9.94

319,479

US$ 183m

Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE)

New Gold Debentures

9.89

317,899

US$ 182m

Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.

 

COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)

Profile as of 10/05/2006

 

Total Net Assets

$791,161,591

Ounces of Gold
in Trust

1,385,649.968

Shares Outstanding

13,950,000

Tonnes of Gold
in Trust

43.10

Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.

 

Silver Trust (SLV)

Profile as of 10/05/2006

 

Total Net Assets

$1,142,804,965

Ounces of Silver
in Trust

104,277,935

Shares Outstanding

10,450,000

Tonnes of Silver
in Trust

3,243.4

Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: 1.4 tonnes were removed from the trust.

 

The Stocks:

 

A report that Northern Dynasty’s (NAK) Pebble mine would destroy salmon spawning areas, the arrest of 43 illegal miners at Freeport-McMoRan’s (FCX) mine in Indonesia, Orezone’s (OZN) management appointments, Newmont’s (NEM) delayed trial in Indonesia, and Goldcorp’s (GG) US antitrust clearance for its purchase of Glamis Gold (GLG) were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines Friday.

 

WINNERS

1.  Great Basin

GBN +6.06% $1.40

2.  Almaden Minerals

AAU +4.08% $2.55

3.  Fronteer

FRG +3.30% $5.95

 

LOSERS

1.  Claude Resources

CGR -6.90% $1.08

2.  Cardero Resource

CDY -6.80% $1.37

3.  Seabridge

SA -4.95% $11.14

Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.

       

All of today's gold and silver stock news:

Pan American Silver Announcement of Q3 Results Release, Conference Call & Webcast - "Third Quarter Results Release: November 2nd after market closes. Conference Call and Webcast: November 6th at 8:30 am PST" More
- October 06, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Newmont Announces Third Quarter Earnings Call - "Newmont Mining Corporation announced that it will report third quarter 2006 results on, November 2, 2006. A conference call will be held that day at 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time (2:00 p.m. Mountain Time) to discuss the quarter's results." More
- October 06, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Goldcorp gets US antitrust clearance for Glamis - "The planned $6 billion purchase of mid-tier gold miner Glamis Gold Ltd. by Canada's Goldcorp Inc. has received U.S. antitrust clearance, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission said in a notice on Friday." More
- October 06, 2006 | Item | E-mail


White Knight Resources Ltd.: Drilling Commences on Cottonwood Property, Cortez Trend - More
- October 06, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Crew Gold Corporation: Masara Mine, Philippines Drilling and Underground Update - More
- October 06, 2006 | Item | E-mail


BrazMin Announces Further Drill Results from the Sao Jorge Gold Project - More
- October 06, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Odyssey Resources Announces Private Placement - More
- October 06, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Uranium One Publishes Technical Report on Honeymoon - More
- October 06, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Premier announces completion of $7.443 million non-brokered private placement - More
- October 06, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Grandview Announces Preliminary Results from Carlin Trend Drilling - More
- October 06, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Assay Results: Chub 1 - 14, Similkameen Mining Division, BC - More
- October 06, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Report Proves Pebble Mine Would Destroy Salmon Spawning Areas - "Northern Dynasty's water rights application for Upper Talarik Creek clearly reveals some of the risks the proposed Pebble Mine poses to Bristol Bay salmon habitat," said Hydrologist Geoff Coble, president of Coble Geophysical Services. "The mine described in NDM's current water rights application will destroy and damage Sockeye and Coho habitat and may cause contaminated water to flow from the South Fork Koktuli Watershed into the Upper Talarik Creek Watershed. The company's assurances that risks are minor are not founded on sufficient, sound science." More
- October 06, 2006 | Item | E-mail


GWR intercepts 0.563 grams gold and 0.285% copper over 80 metres - More
- October 06, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Kalimantan to Advance Copper Prospects Through a Joint Venture With Oxiana - More
- October 06, 2006 | Item | E-mail


43 Illegal Miners Detained in Indonesia - "Indonesian police on Friday detained 43 indigenous Papuans for blocking a main road to the world's largest gold and copper mine with burning tires, an official said. The illegal miners, including two women, were picked up at dawn Friday outside the Grasberg mine operated by the New Orleans-based Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., said local police chief Lt. Col. Jimmy Tuilan." More
- October 06, 2006 | Item | E-mail


AngloGold Ashanti Third Quarter 2006 Earnings Call Details - "AngloGold Ashanti's third quarter 2006 earnings conference call will take place on Monday, 30 October at 15.00 South Africa time (US EST: 08.00; UK: 13.00; Sydney: 00.00)." More
- October 06, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Orezone Management Appointments - "Orezone is a great growth story in the Junior Gold Sector with tremendous potential," said Marotta. "I look forward to helping management pursue strategic opportunities within the gold industry and tell the story to investors as the Company moves towards its goal of production." More
- October 06, 2006 | Item | E-mail


Newmont pollution trial in Indonesia delayed again - "An Indonesian court has pushed back by two weeks a key stage in a pollution trial involving U.S. firm Newmont Mining Corp. after prosecutors requested more preparation time. A Newmont unit that once operated in Indonesia's North Sulawesi province and its president director, Richard Ness, face charges over allegations the miner dumped toxic substances into a bay near its now defunct gold mine, making villagers sick." More
- October 06, 2006 | Item | E-mail


 

- Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

 

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© Gold Seeker 2006

Note: This article may be reproduced provided the article, in full, is used and mention to Gold-Seeker.com is given.

 

 

Disclosure: The owner, editor, writer and publisher and their associates are not responsible for errors or omissions.  The author of this report is not a registered financial advisor.  Readers should not view this material as offering investment related advice. Gold-Seeker.com has taken precautions to ensure accuracy of information provided. Information collected and presented are from what is perceived as reliable sources, but since the information source(s) are beyond Gold-Seeker.com’s control, no representation or guarantee is made that it is complete or accurate.  The reader accepts information on the condition that errors or omissions shall not be made the basis for any claim, demand or cause for action.  Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.  Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change.  Nothing contained herein constitutes a representation by the publisher, nor a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities & therefore information, nor opinions expressed, shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, futures or options contract mentioned herein.  Investors are advised to obtain the advice of a qualified financial & investment advisor before entering any financial transaction.


-- Posted 6 October, 2006 | |


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