-- Posted 25 November, 2008 | | Source: SilverSeek.com
| Close | Gain/Loss |
Gold | $819.00 | +$1.10 |
Silver | $10.28 | -$0.04 |
XAU | 94.93 | +0.12% |
HUI | 229.60 | +0.57% |
GDM | 682.89 | +0.25% |
JSE Gold | 1872.74 | -16.29 |
USD | 84.73 | -1.14 |
Euro | 130.64 | +1.19 |
Yen | 104.94 | +2.08 |
Oil | $50.77 | -$3.73 |
10-Year | 3.092% | -0.248 |
T-Bond | 126.90625 | +1.625 |
Dow | 8479.86 | +0.43% |
Nasdaq | 1464.73 | -0.50% |
S&P | 857.41 | +0.66% |
The Metals:
Gold fell $15.35 to $802.55 by early trade in London and rose $12.60 to $830.50 by about 9AM EST in New York before it fell back off into the close, but it still ended with a gain of 0.13%. Silver rose $0.173 to $10.493 by about 9AM EST and fell $0.29 to $10.03 by late morning in New York before it rallied back higher into the close, but it still ended with a loss of 0.39%.
Euro gold fell to about €628 on more euro strength, platinum gained $11.50 to $865, and copper dropped a couple of cents to about $1.65.
Gold and silver equities fell as much as 5% by early afternoon, but they then rallied back higher into the close and ended with slight gains.
The Economy:
Report | For | Reading | Expected | Previous |
GDP | Q3 | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.3% |
Chain Deflator | Q3 | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
Consumer Confidence | Nov | 44.9 | 39.5 | 38.0 |
Home price indexes drop by record amount in 3Q Yahoo
Fed Commits Up to $800 Billion in New Programs to Unfreeze Credit Markets Bloomberg
U.S. Home-Price Decline Accelerates, GDP Shrinks as Crisis's Grip Tightens Bloomberg
3Q Home Prices Down 1.8% From 2Q EasyBourse
U.S. problem banks rise to 171 at end of third quarter: FDIC Reuters
Obama names budget director, promotes restraint Yahoo
Government plans new credit, mortgage programs Yahoo
At this rate, the government will need a bailout, too MarketWatch
Along with a negative GDP reading and rebounding Consumer Confidence due to lower gas prices, record drops in home prices were reported while the FDIC grew its list of problem banks to the highest since 1995, but none of that was the main economic story of the day as the fed announced another massive program to try and unfreeze the credit market.
$800 billion more is being committed with $600 billion going towards mortgage backed securities and debt from Fannie and Freddie and $200 billion going towards holders of securities backed by consumer debt. $20 billion from the Treasury Department’s $700 billion TARP will back that lending and will result in leverage of 10 to 1. As former St. Louis Fed president William Poole noted in an interview with Bloomberg Television: “Clearly, the Fed and the Treasury are beginning to take a large amount of credit risk.” Another day, another chunk of toxic debt transferred to the taxpayer from the failing companies who invested in it in the first place. “The Fed will be adding reserves to its balance sheet, which has already grown by $1.3 trillion this year as a result of the program.”
U.S. default risk jumps on govt loan purchase plan Reuters
Tomorrow brings Durable Goods Orders for October expected at -2.5%, Initial Jobless Claims for 11/22 expected at 537,000, Personal Income for October expected at 0.1%, and Personal Spending expected at -0.7%. At 9:45 is Chicago PMI for November expected at 38.5, and at 10AM are New Home Sales for October expected at 450,000 and Michigan Sentiment for November expected at 58.0.
The Markets:
Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/
Oil erased most of yesterday’s gains and ended over 6% lower on more demand worries after today’s negative GDP reading.
The U.S. dollar index dropped markedly again as the fed and treasury continue to create from thin air an enormous amount of new dollars to flood the market with.
Treasuries rose on worries over the economy and the continual need for more bailouts.
The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P ended mixed and near unchanged in more volatile trade as the Nasdaq was weighed down by some poor tech company forecasts while the Dow and S&P ended with slight gains on hopes the treasury program will help the credit markets and bring down mortgage rates.
Among the big names making news in the market today were D.R. Horton, Warner Music, Talbots, Chico’s, BHP and Rio, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Travelers, and American Eagle.
The Commentary:
“Dear CIGAs,
1. Gold is a currency.
2. Hyperinflation is a currency event
3. Hyperinflation builds slowly then explodes. See the chart of any of the currencies of all the many historical periods of hyperinflation given you in previous missives on www.JSMineset.com.
4. All periods of currency events that birthed the explosion of hyperinflation occurred during extremely depressive to depressionary economic conditions.
5. The key element of the event preceding the loss of confidence was the failure of the liquidity or coin clipping programs capped by forms of Quantitative Easing. Secretary Paulson this morning and the Federal Reserve three weeks ago said that they were embarking on this program.
6. The loss of confidence during the depression to come will be the failure of all programs to reverse a meltdown of OTC derivatives.
7. The world is looking towards the US dollar for the rescue, bailout and airdrops to include them.
8. The dollar is the prime monetary inflator and therefore the confidence to be lost is in the US dollar.”- Jim Sinclair, JSMineset.com
Also listen to today’s GSR Preview! - Gold Nugget With Jim Sinclair & Chris Waltzek
“Dear CIGAs,
The 100 day moving average near the $832 level provided the overhead selling resistance in today’s gold session. The chatter was that $100 worth of gains in gold over the past three trading sessions was enough of a move to bring in some short term profit taking. That is probably true although I would not be surprised to learn that the bullion banks showed up at the $830 level trying to draw another line in the sand. Dip buyers are appearing however which is a good sign as the technicals have flipped to friendly with the turn higher in the 10 and 20 day moving averages and the consistent trade above the 40 day. Thus far gold has managed to maintain its footing above the 50 day as well which comes in closer to the $800 level.
It looks as if we are oscillating around the 50% retracement level from the October peak. If gold can maintain a general consolidation-type trade around this level, it will be constructive. We are headed into a holiday shortened period in which liquidity can dry up some - that leaves the market vulnerable to wide swings in price on even relatively small orders.
Technically, a closing trade above the $835 level should enable gold to run to $850 before it encounters anything much in the way of overhead resistance. Stops are building just above today’s session high. Support lies at today’s lows and then the $790 level. Open interest numbers remain very, very low which does give me a bit of concern. Figures from yesterday reveal that a large amount of the buying was indeed short covering. It is constructive to push the shorts out as no doubt happened when the market pushed into stops that were located above the $800 - $810 level but we need fresh buying, not just short covering, to sustain prices at these levels and set things up for an extended push higher. We must see a continued increase in open interest (an end to the deleveraging) before we can mount a sustained rally.
Interestingly enough, the Euro-Yen cross was knocked lower today even in the face of the newly announced Fed plan to buy up FNM and FRE debt. Stocks initially greeted the plan with happiness but then moved lower mid-morning. That took the cross lower and as it faded, so too did gold but as that cross began to recover off its lows, so too did the gold price.
The HUI managed a close above the horizontal resistance level near 225 yesterday but could not manage (thus far) to get a second consecutive close above that level. It will need to do so in order to bring in more technically based buying into the mining shares. So far the selling in the HUI and the XAU has not been unmanageable.
The Dollar (USDX) did dip below the critically important 85 level in today’s session but it managed to claw its way back above that by mid-morning. Watch that level closely as two consecutive closes below it will begin to push the concentrated speculative long side positions into liquidation. Right now the USDX is bouncing from its 40 day moving average which tells me that the fund longs are attempting to defend their positions. If they cannot hold it there, they will be forced out and a top will be confirmed on the technical charts. Their exodus will bring the 83.50 level into play quite quickly. They know that and so do we.”- Dan Norcini, More at JSMineset.com
“Dear CIGAs,
WE ARE QUITE CERTAIN THAT IN THE UNITED STATES, BANK AFTER BANK WLL BE RESCUED AS CITIBANK WAS THIS WEEKEND
WHO WILL BE NEXT…BANK OF AMERICA, JP MORGAN, GOLDMAN SACHS, MORGAN STANLEY?
The surprise is not that they will be rescued, the surprise is that not enough attention is being paid to the fact that the U.S. will have to sell several $ trillions in bonds in order to finance the above bail outs.
If bond buyers wise up, they will stop buying a bond with an almost infinite quantity for sale, and they will start selling them. This will send the US dollar lower. We expect the market to awaken to this obvious outcome, sooner rather than later. We are bullish on foreign currencies and gold longer term.”- Monty Guild, JSMineset.com
“A few up days hardly constitutes a trend but gold seems to be recovering some of its luster which I’m sure is a welcome relief to everyone. While the next phase of gold’s bull market may not play out this week or next, it will almost certainly do so in the coming months.
For those of us that haven’t been flushed out of the gold market by margin calls and other factors, the light at the end of the tunnel is beginning to look more like a navigation beacon than a freight train.
For investors in gold equities - and to a lesser extent physical gold - these past few months have been disconcerting to say the least. Perhaps it’s a sign of the times but the only solace I’ve been able to offer shell-shocked investors is that my losses are on a par with their own - and I’ve been in the business for most of my working life and presumably have some idea what I’m doing.
Throughout all this turmoil, however, I’ve tried to keep my eye on the big picture and I’m more convinced than ever that we are heading into the eye of a perfect storm for gold and gold equities.” - David Duval, JSMineset.com
“December Gold closed down 1 at 818.5. This was 9.4 up from the low and 12 off the high.
December Silver finished down 0.085 at 10.27, 0.075 off the high and 0.15 up from the low.
The gold market failed to follow through on yesterday's gains today and traded in a choppy manner instead, first finding support from a weaker dollar but later being undermined by weakening crude oil prices and ongoing concerns over the global economic outlook. On the supportive side was a sharply lower dollar resulting from disappointing GDP data this morning and then the announcement by the Fed of a program to buy $600 billion in mortgage related debt and $200 billion in consumer debt. The stock market initially appeared to gain on the Fed program story, but then it reversed and moved lower, possibly on worries over the increasing cost of the rescue efforts and/or whether it will be enough. Gold managed to bounce off its lows as the dollar worked steadily lower through the session.
Like gold, the silver market traded both sides of unchanged today as the weaker dollar and weaker stock market sent mixed signals. The lower dollar lent support to precious metals on flight to quality ideas. However, the stock market's negative reaction in the afternoon offered little hope for improvement in industrial demand for the metal. Silver managed to stay in the upper half of yesterday's breakout range after having threatened major resistance at the November highs yesterday.”- The Hightower Report, Futures Analysis and Forecasting
GATA Posts:
Treasury considered plan to bust Citi shorts
Century later, gold coin reflects sculptor's vision
Goldman expected to sell $2 billion in FDIC-insured bonds
U.S. pledges top $7.7 trillion to unfreeze credit
The Statistics:
As of close of business: 11/24/2008
Gold Warehouse Stocks: | 8,108,878 | - |
Silver Warehouse Stocks: | 128,649,234 | - |
Global Gold ETF Holdings
[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]
| Product name | Total Tonnes | Total Ounces | Total Value |
New York Stock Exchange Arca (NYSE Arca) AND Singapore Exchange (SGX) AND Tokyo Stock Exchage (TSE) AND Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx) | SPDR® Gold Shares | 755.06 | 24,275,884 | US$ 19,962m |
London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse ) | Gold Bullion Securities | 117.02 | 3,762,318 | US$ 3,071m |
Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) | Gold Bullion Securities | 11.51 | 369,061 | US$ 302m |
Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) | New Gold Debentures | 26.94 | 866,133 | US$ 712m |
Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.
COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)
Profile as of 11/24/2008 | |
Total Net Assets | $1,722,910,337 | Ounces of Gold
in Trust | 2,103,138.949 |
Shares Outstanding | 21,350,000 | Tonnes of Gold
in Trust | 65.41 |
Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: 1.53 tonnes were added to the trust.
Silver Trust (SLV)
Profile as of 11/24/2008 | |
Total Net Assets | $2,157,752,578 | Ounces of Silver
in Trust | 214,983,944.900 |
Shares Outstanding | 217,700,000 | Tonnes of Silver
in Trust | 6,686.75 |
Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.
The Stocks:
BHP Billiton’s (BHP) abandoned hostile takeover bid for Rio Tinto (RIO), ITH’s (THM) additional claims, NovaGold’s (NG) director resignation, Silver Quest’s (SQI.V) drill results, and Silverstone’s (SST.V) quarterly results were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.
WINNERS
1. Solitario | XPL +13.11% $2.07 |
2. Anglo American | AAUK +11.22% $11.50 |
3. IAMGOLD | IAG +7.95% $4.21 |
LOSERS
1. Minefinders | MFN -11.28% $3.46 |
2. Silver Wheaton | SLW -8.16% $2.59 |
3. Western Goldfields | WGW -4.96% $1.15 |
Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.
All of today's gold and silver stock news:
Peru's Garcia signs mining royalty rule into law - "Peru's government approved on Tuesday a law that changes how mining royalties are distributed in the Andean country, a major minerals producer, where protests over the rule have flared in recent months.
The law, which Congress passed last month, was signed by President Alan Garcia and printed in Peru's official gazette." More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Cadillac Mining Corp. progress report on Osilinka mag survey and East Beauchastel drilling - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Silver Quest Resources Ltd.: First Drill Results From the Capoose-Silver Trend Project - "Silver Quest Resources Ltd. (the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:SQI - News) is pleased to report the first assay results from two diamond drill holes from the October diamond drill program on the Capoose-Silver Trend Project located approximately 185 kilometres west-southwest of Prince George, British Columbia. Multiple targets were tested during the recently completed ten hole, 1,441-metre drill program." More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
ITH & Redstar Gold Increase Holdings at North Bullfrog Project, Nevada - "International Tower Hill Mines Ltd. ("ITH" or the "Company") (CDNX:ITH.V - News)(NYSE-A: THM)(Frankfurt:IW9.F - News) is pleased to announce the acquisition by Redstar Gold Corp. ("Redstar") of an additional twelve patented mining claims at the North Bullfrog project in south-western Nevada, which will become part of the ITH/Redstar option/joint venture. These additional claims cover one of the Company's highest priority drill targets within the district. Historic drilling and underground sampling has identified an area of mineralization with numerous 5 to 20 metre intervals of more than 1 g/t gold. The new property brings the North Bullfrog land package to approximately 18.6 square kilometres (seven square miles) of 100%-owned mining claims and leases." More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Chile miners say losing jobs as metals prices fall - "A global slump in metals prices is hitting Chile's small and medium sized miners, forcing cutbacks in working hours in some cases and jobs in others.
Mine workers in the city of Antofagasta, in the heartland of Chile's massive copper mining industry, demonstrated this week to demand government aid and said up to 2,500 were out of work in the region as copper prices have slumped." More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Benton Resources Corp. Board of Directors Approves Adoption of Shareholder Rights Plan - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Imperial Reports Layoff Notices at Mount Polley - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Globex: Drilling Resumes at Magnesite-Talc Property and Future AIF's to Be Upgraded - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
East West Makes Several New Discoveries on GP2 Property, Ring of Fire - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Denison says Midwest JV delayed, suspends mine in Utah - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Typhoon: Update on Monexco Project - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Colossus Minerals Drills Long Intervals of Gold-Platinum-Palladium Mineralisation at Serra Pelada - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Chancery Resources Announces Strategy and Corporate Goals on Its Mineral Exploration Properties - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Everton Makes New Gold and Copper Surface Discovery on the Fresso Property, Dominican Republic - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Soltoro Intercepts an Average Grade of 119 gpt Silver Over 13 Metres in 40 Drill Holes at El Rayo Silver-Gold-Lead Project in Mexico - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Zoloto Resources announces equity financing and transaction with Grafton Resource Investments Ltd. - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Midland Discovers New Gold and Base Metal Mineralization on its James Bay Gold Project - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Temex intersects copper-nickel and VMS mineralization on GP2 Property, Ring of Fire - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Augusta Announces Senior Management Appointments - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Explorator Provides Updated 43-101 Mineral Resource Estimate That Demonstrates a Ten Times Increase in Indicated Resources - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Golden Share Recovers Visible Gold And Intersects U Zone Over a 15 m Width in Elwood Drilling Program - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Diamond Drill Program at Virgin Metals' Cuatro Hermanos Property Returns Long Intervals of Porphyry Cu-Mo Mineralization - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
SIRIOS: New Au-Mo Mineralization Type Discovered on the ESCALE Property - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Mill City intersects copper-nickel and VMS mineralization on GP2 Property, Ring of Fire - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Stroud Announces Financing - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Nebu Resources Inc. Announces Option on Golden Mile Property in Nevada - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Denison Mines Corp. Announces Postponement in Midwest Project and Suspension at Tony M Mine - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Rossing South strike extended - exploration target on track - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Drilling Returns Best Intersections yet of 135m at 2.3g/t Gold (Including 17m at 9.6g/t) and 71m at 3.1g/t Gold at Lydian's Amulsar Discovery in Armenia - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Houston Lake Reports Second Quarter Results - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Positive Feasibility Study Converts 6.2 Million Ounces to Mineral Reserves at Canadian Malartic Project - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Duluth Metals new NI 43-101 Preliminary Economic Assessment confirms higher production rate and positive economics with current metal prices - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Capstone Reports Minto Mine Connected to Yukon Electrical Grid - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Aurelio Resource Corporate Update - More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
Silverstone Reports Financial Results for the Third Quarter - "Silver sales of $3.7 million (net of $1.7 million negative price adjustments) recorded during the quarter from the sale of 386,000 ounces. As a result of declining silver prices in the quarter, third quarter revenues include negative pricing adjustments of $1.2 million related to second quarter sales and shipments and $0.5 million related to third quarter shipments." More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
NovaGold Announces Resignation of a Director - "NovaGold Resources Inc. (Toronto:NG.TO - News)(AMEX:NG - News) announced that the Company has accepted the resignation of Patrick Downey from the Company's Board of Directors, effective yesterday. Mr. Downey has indicated he wishes to focus on his position as President and CEO of Aura Minerals Inc." More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
BHP dumps Rio mining mega-bid as downturn bites - "Global miner BHP Billiton abandoned its hostile takeover bid for rival Rio Tinto, blaming sliding metals prices and the threat of global recession for scuppering the mega-merger.
BHP announced the bid last November as mining boomed worldwide on soaring demand for iron ore, steel and other resources from China and other emerging markets." More
- November 25, 2008 | Item | E-mail
- Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
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-- Posted 25 November, 2008 | |
