-- Posted 24 September, 2009 | | Source: SilverSeek.com

The Metals:

Gold traded mostly slightly lower in Asia and London before it rose to see a $5.10 gain at $1018.30 by a little after 8:30AM EST in New York, but it then tumbled to as low as $993.05 by around 10:30 and remained near that low into the close to end the day with a loss of 1.58%.  Silver followed a similar pattern and rose to see a 10 cent gain at $16.99 a little before 9AM EST, but it then fell all the way to $16.24 by about noon and closed with a loss of 3.37%.

Euro gold fell to about €679, platinum lost $21.50 to $1301, and copper fell nearly 10 cents to about $2.70.

Gold and silver equities fell over 3% by midmorning before they bounced back from that level a bit at various times during the rest of trade, but they still ended with over 2% losses.

The Economy:

Volcker: Obama plans maintain 'too big to fail'  Yahoo

Home credit extension could sway buying decisions: survey  Reuters

Tomorrow at 8:30AM EST brings Durable Goods Orders for August expected at 0.5%.  Excluding transportation, orders are expected at 1.0%.  At 9:55 is Michigan Sentiment for September expected at 70.5, and at 10AM is the New Home Sales report for August expected at 441,000.

The Markets:

Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/

Oil fell as the U.S. dollar index turned higher after Existing Home Sales data disappointed and reignited worries over the economy that sent the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P marginally lower on the day.  Treasuries rose slightly after a strong 7-year note auction.

Among the big names making news in the market today were Rite Aid, Nintendo, American Airlines, Caterpillar, and Deere.

The Commentary:

“Dear CIGAs,

There appears to be a deadly contest occurring in the Dollar market over the 76 level on the USDX. As I have mentioned in my prior commentary, a closing downside breach of 76 and the USDX will promptly drop to 74. That will be enough to allow gold to shoot to $1,030 and take out that level. Once that level gives way on a close, momentum funds will flood into the gold market overwhelming the ability of Goldman and Morgan to suck down all the gold bids into their magic price capping box and we should see an acceleration higher. I am not sure who is supplying the bid to the Dollar to attempt to prevent this but their footprint is evident on the hourly charts. There was nothing in yesterday’s FOMC statement that was the least bit Dollar friendly.

One of the factors working against the Dollar is persistent strength in the Yen which continues moving higher with nary a peep out of the Bank of Japan or the Ministry of Finance. That it has been doing so is all the more remarkable considering the attention that the yen garners from those two quarters. As a currency trader I can remember more than a few occasions scanning the wire services in the wee hours of early morning for comments from those folks in an attempt to glean the level of the yen above which they would foray forth to beat us speculators into submission. Based on their silence one can only come to the conclusion that the Dollar/Yen level is losing its fascination with the monetary authorities in Japan who now appear to be looking across the water at China and further over to India as their future financial interest centers. Could it be that the 51rst state of the Union is “seceding” from Uncle Sam’s fiefdom as it witnesses the implosion of US economic might? I think so. After all, outside of the US everyone and their mother can see the handwriting on the wall detailing the demise of US economic might. Self interest still rules supreme not only in the individual but among nations. Japan is wisely doing what is in its long term financial interest.

A point of interest – the British Pound stinks to high heaven right now which is why gold priced in those terms continues to stay firmly above the 600 pound level. Britain’s currency is suffering from the same fate as the US Dollar – its masters are deliberately attempting to pull the rug out from beneath it so as to cheapen their exports on the global market. The bank of England’s governor as much as said so early this morning when he stated that a weak pound would help rebalance the UK economy. What is this – FOMC from across the pond? Yesterday we get the Fed abandoning the Dollar and today we get the BOE abandoning the Pound. Who is next? Is it any wonder why British investors are flocking to gold? A point of reference – the all time high in gold priced in BP terms at the PM fix was 690.353 back in February of this year. Today’s PM fix was 626.979.

Gold ran into a bout of selling as the equity markets followed through on yesterday’s technical sell signal which caused the usual knee jerk rush into Treasuries. That ran up the Dollar which brought in the hedgie algorithms and commodities began to get sold down. Crude oil in particular was rapped dropping $3.00 as I write this. With weakness in crude and a stronger Dollar, combined with option expiration, gold was taken lower and was unable to hold the $1,000 level. Seasonally we are into gold’s strongest time of the year however and once the fund long liquidation runs its course and support is established, it will resume its uptrend.

Technically gold is still attracting buyers down in that same zone that has brought them in since early September. As long as that holds, it will work sideways and consolidate while it waits for the next shoe to drop on the greenback. If the mid 990’s fail to stem the selling, then it will fall another $10 or so down to a more formidable support level. As Jim has said so often, just watch the Dollar to see what gold will do next.

The HUI is hovering right around that former resistance zone near 404 which is providing support for now. A bounce before the close up and away from 404 – 405 will establish that level as a floor and send it into more of a consolidative type trade. A failure there will set up a test of 385 or so on the downside.

There is a good chance that if equities continue to fall, we will see more “flight to safety” and out of commodity orders coming into the markets. The hedgies and the index funds have pushed a lot of hot money into these markets as fear of inflation has them looking for shelter from the collapsing Dollar. Any bear market flips north in the Dollar that might arise out of delays in inflationary forces, will see some of that money flow out of commodities and into bonds. Gold had recently been acting as a safe haven play with more and more investors growing nervous over the continued proliferation of paper debt to provide them a store of wealth. For the earlier part of this year, gold was trading in tandem with the “we love risk” or “we hate risk” psyche of traders/investors. When risk was in, gold was in. When risk was out, gold was considered risky and was sold. That changed a few weeks ago. We will watch how gold handles this situation should the equity markets move lower during October, a time in which they have a tendency to do just that. If its safe haven status is intact, it will find eager buyers on any price retracements. Again, just to repeat, gold’ s seasonal tendencies favor upside action into the 4th quarter.

Technically the Dollar has been showing some bullish divergence on the daily chart and is trading above the 10 day moving average. That is resulting in short covering which might be able to push it up closer to 77.30. Very formidable resistance for the greenback lies centered in the region around 78.”- Dan Norcini, More at JSMineset.com

“Jim,

I’ve bought the compendium so I hope you can steer me in the right direction if you cannot answer the question.

I understand that derivatives (cds and other derivatives) is a huge market with many old contracts outstanding. I understand they are not transparent. I understand counter-party risk. I understand that they were “put on” by professionals with the view that they were mostly riskless for themselves.

So given that, where are the weak points? What can we look to for signs that this market IS imploding?

I read lots of articles with wailing and gnashing of teeth saying derivatives are terrible and will bring about the end of the world. However, I have yet to see someone articulate HOW it may happen. I have yet to see someone talk about the weaknesses of the system.

It would seem to me that the size of the derivative market would mean that something HUGE would have to happen to bring down a part of the system. What would some of those somethings be? Do we need to predict a black swan event or observe a black swan event to feel the negative effects?

Thanks for your help in pointing me in the right direction.

CIGA Don G.

Dear Don,

The Fed and Treasury have undertaken policies to insulate the financial system from the failure of special performance contracts which are also known as OTC derivatives.

In answer to your question, let’s review what the immediate effect of the meltdown of the securitized investment vehicles backed by mortgages as a result of the end of the housing boom was.

As the backing of these difficult to value assets came into question, all the institutions holding them and the many holding all forms of wagers made thereupon had to face the losses because of mark to market accounting rules. Many institutions were financially on the ropes as their asset values found no market price available to what they called their assets.

How do you value packages of different types of mortgages made on different types of properties to different credit capable parties? It is simply a guess at best. There were no bids for them, and still in the main there are no bids of merit.

When you ask what a systemic failure of OTC derivatives would look like, consider a financial world full of promises of performance such as paying you if you lose money on a bond position due to bankruptcy that simply says to you get lost when you ask for payment. Now think of hundreds and thousands of different obligations to you that simply say buzz off when settlement in your favor is requested. Think of bankruptcy everywhere in every type of corporation from a GMAC type to your local town and village because in search of better returns and bigger profits they entered into items they did not understand, accepting the distributor’s academic presentation of a fool proof investment. That picture would approach what a failure of the OTC derivative market would look like. It would be the end of the world financially, leaving what remains after a star goes super nova – a black hole.

Since the Fed and Treasury have moved to insulate the financial industry from the above, knowing the present recovery to be at best shallow but more likely an illusion, understand that the West is on a path to HYPERINFLATION that cannot be altered no matter what. Any talk, such as today of draining liquidity or what the G20 will say soon, a united world bank effort to fight inflation is total hot air designed to keep the social order.

The die is cast. This time they have done it and we are all screwed.

Unfortunately (and I mean it most sincerely) there is no practical method of reversal, nor is there any real will to reverse QE procedures, but rather there is a pressing need now to do more and more of what has already taken place.

We have passed the threshold of "This is it." All statements to the contrary are well intentioned lies.

Now that I am on the subject I might be able someday in the future to tell you the real inside on why China novated the OTC derivatives sold to their parastatal corporations. They are in the right even though it is hard to understand without knowing the facts of the matter. The situation either has been, or will shortly be negotiated to closure.

Respectfully yours,”- Jim Sinclair, JSMineset.com

GATA Posts:

Bet the Bank of England has already swapped it with the Fed

Like Fed and Treasury, Taiwan central bank 'consults' with traders

The Statistics:

Activity from: 9/23/2009

Global Gold ETF Holdings

[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]

 Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.

COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)

 Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.

Silver Trust (SLV)

 Note: No change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data.

The Miners:

Goldcorp’s (GG) Penasquito gold deposit moving towards production, Minco’s (MGH) private placement, Banro’s (BAA) appointed financial advisor, Centerra’s (CG.TO) production update, Timberline’s (TLR) economic update, Klondex’s withdrawn support for Paramount’s (PZG) bid, Sabina’s (SBB.V) drill results, Golden Goliath’s (GNG.V) resource report, and ECU Silver’s (ECU.TO) production report were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.

WINNER

LOSERS

Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.

All of today's gold and silver stock news:

Diamond Drill core results MWN 09-05 Navojoa Project - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Klondike Gold Corp. Options Ron Gold Property to Anglo Swiss Resources - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Fortune Valley Announces Grant of Options and Issue of 50,000 Shares to Option Holder - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Anglo Swiss Resources Inc. Options Ron Gold Property from Klondike Gold Corp. - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Goldcorp's Penasquito on track to open Jan 1, 2010 - "Canadian miner Goldcorp (G.TO) is set to begin commercial production at its massive Penasquito gold deposit in central Mexico on Jan. 1, 2010, the company's Mexico director said on Thursday." More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Tribute Minerals Announces Debt Settlement - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Klondex Advises Paramount of its Decision to Terminate Agreement - "Paramount Gold and Silver Corp. (NYSE:PZG - News)(TSX:PZG - News)(Frankfurt:P6G - News)(WKN: A0HGKQ) ("Paramount") announced today that it has been advised by Klondex Mines Limited ("Klondex") that the Klondex board of directors has withdrawn its support and therefore breached its binding letter agreement of July 20, 2009 ("Agreement") in which it had agreed to support a combination of the two companies on the basis of 1.45 shares of common stock of Paramount for each common share of Klondex ("Transaction")." More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Pacific Wildcat Resources Corp.: Company Actively Examining Lithium Potential on Mozambique Tantalum Licences - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Minco Gold Announces a Non-Brokered Private Placement of CND$4,400,000 - "Minco Gold Corporation (the "Company" or "Minco Gold") (TSX:MMM - News)(AMEX:MGH - News)(Frankfurt:MI5 - News) is pleased to announce that it has entered into an agreement with Accel China Growth Fund II L.P. ("Accel") a fund under management by IDGVC Capital Partners located in the Peoples Republic of China to purchase on a non brokered private placement of 5,000,000 common shares in the capital stock of Minco Silver at a price of CND$0.88 per share for an aggregate gross proceeds of up to CND$4,440,000 (the "Offering"). The Offering represents 10.3% of the issued and outstanding common shares of Minco Gold." More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Shipment of 35% Copper From Coronado Resources' Madison Gold/Copper Project in Montana USA, to China - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Red Dragon Acquires Gold Properties in the Tapajos Region of Northern Brazil - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Highbank Enters Into an Option Agreement With Moag to Explore the "Mace" Moly Prospect in the Republic of Ireland - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Mexico mining investment to drop in 2009, 2010 - "Mexico's national mining chamber said on Thursday investment in new exploration projects and mine expansions would drop 25.3 percent in 2009 to $2.73 billion compared with a year ago as the financial crisis hits credit and metals prices." More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend on Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock - "Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. today declares, for the period from August 1, 2009 through October 31, 2009, a cash dividend of $1.6875 per share payable on November 1, 2009 to holders of record as of October 15, 2009 for its 6.75% mandatory convertible preferred stock (NYSE: FCXprM - News)." More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Banro appoints debt financial advisor for its Twangiza gold project - "Banro Corporation ("Banro" or the "Company") (NYSE AMEX - "BAA"; TSX - "BAA") is pleased to announce that it has finalized the appointment of Standard Chartered Bank as the exclusive debt finance advisor for the Company's wholly-owned Twangiza gold project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (the "DRC")." More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Golden Goose Resources Inc. retains Renmark Financial Communications Inc. - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Cassidy Gold to Conduct IP Survey at Kouroussa Gold Project, Guinea - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

SIRIOS RESOURCES INC.: First Closing of $64,000 and Drilling on PONTAX-LITHIUM - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Sabina Silver Announces Initial Hackett River Results - "Hackett River is one of the largest undeveloped silver - zinc volcanic massive sulphide ("VMS") deposits of its type in the world with indicated resources totalling 43 million tonnes grading 144 g/t silver, 4.65% zinc, 0.42% copper, 0.64% lead and 0.30 g/t gold and an additional inferred open resource totalling 14.6 million tonnes grading 136 g/t silver, 4.46% zinc, 0.31% copper, 0.57% lead and 0.31 g/t gold." More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Geologix Appoints George Brack as Director - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Alder's Canadian Creek Yukon Drilling Underway - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Kirrin Resources Announces 2009 Exploration Plans for Lost Pond REE and Uranium Project - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Benton Provides Exploration Update - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

MAYA GOLD & SILVER: TSX Venture Approves the Amizmiz Option Agreement - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Murgor trenching returns 10.40 g/t gold over 4.30 meters at the Fancamp Gold Property in northwestern Quebec - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Avalon Announces the Re-Naming of the Lake Zone REE Deposit at Thor Lake, NWT to the Nechalacho REE Deposit by the Yellowknives Dene First Nation - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

KWG unit engages railroad engineering firm - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Galahad Metals Options Regcourt Gold Deposit - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Riverstone Commences Drilling on Karma Gold Project - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Rockhaven Resources Ltd. Announces Positive Drill Results From Its Plata Property - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Ucore Reports 18.8% TREO at Bokan-Dotson Ridge, 92% of Which Are HREE's - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Medallion to Focus on Lithium & Rare Earths - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Strategic Resources Stakes Claims with Lithium Potential - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Aldrin Completes Preliminary Work Program on Brew Property - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Uranium North Files NI 43-101 Report on Amer Lake Inferred Resource Which Includes a New Exploration Target for Up to 38 Million Pounds U3o8 - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Etna Resources Inc. Announces the Appointment of TRU Group - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Selwyn Resources Expands XY High-Grade Mineral Potential - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Mega Uranium Ltd.: Wide Drill Intersections in the Salaki Uranium Prospect in Cameroon - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Grayd Appoints Richard Hall as Chairman - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Consolidated Abaddon Begins Exploration on Selwyn Lake Rare Earth Property - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Northair Continues Exploration at La Cigarra Silver Project, Mexico - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

NGEx Granted Prospecting Licenses on New Massive Sulfide Discovery in Eritrea - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Commander Discovers New Gold Showings on the Baffin Gold Project, Nunavut - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Pacific Bay Acquires Red Lake District Gold Property - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

New gold target - 254 g/t Au, 640 g/t Ag (greater than)500 g/t Te High-Grade Eau Claire Drill Assays - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Silver Dragon Reports Initial Sales of Silver/Lead/Zinc Concentrates From Cerros las Minitas Project, Mexico - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Arianne Completes a $100,000 Financing - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Pelangio Exploration Commissions 7,500 Metre Phase I Drill Program on the Obuasi Property - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Paladin Energy Ltd Releases 2009 Annual Report - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Trueclaim Enters Into an Agreement With First Canadian Securities (R) - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Alexis Tests Deep Potential Below Manitou-Barvue Mine and Expands Base Metal Discovery Potential in Val d'Or - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Kaminak Completes Airborne Geophysical Survey and Initiates Follow-Up Field Program on TBN Platinum-Palladium Project, Northwest Ontario - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Canplats Commences Pre-Feasibility Studies At Camino Rojo - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Metanor Drills 9.24 g/t Au Over 33m at Barry Pit is Growing at Depth - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Radius Gold Receives 1-million Focus Ventures Shares - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Focus graduates to Tier 2 and completes Nueva California option assignment and financing - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Copper Mountain gets approval to start construction on mill foundations - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

TVI Pacific Inc.'s Philippine Affiliate Seeks Debt Refinancing - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Manicouagan Provides Update on Its Pickle Lake Gold Properties - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

General Metals Raises an Additional $127,500 via Private Placement - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Lara Exploration to Acquire Maxy Gold - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Maxy Gold Corp.: Press Release - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Bonanza Goldfields acquires Claim No. 3 in a proven gold-bearing district of the BRB - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Selkirk Metals Corp.: Environmental Reclamation Award-Catface Project, British Columbia - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Soltera Mining Corp. Announces Intention Plan to Commence Near-Term Alluvial Gold Production at El Torno - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

ATAC Resources Ltd. Steps Out and Intersects 23.01 g/t Gold Over 20.67 Metres at Its Rau Property - More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Centerra Gold Production Update - "Centerra Gold Inc. (TSX:CG - News; the "Company") announced today that it expects 2009 gold production from the Kumtor mine in the Kyrgyz Republic to be approximately 500,000 ounces, compared to the previous guidance of 560,000 to 600,000 ounces as discussed at the end of the second quarter. On a consolidated basis, the Company expects 2009 gold production of 620,000 to 630,000 ounces, versus prior guidance of 680,000 to 730,000 ounces as a result of Kumtor's revised production guidance." More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Golden Goliath Resources Ltd.: Resource Report Received-Up To 112 Million Ounce Silver Potential for Las Bolas - "The Company is pleased to announce the results from the preliminary NI 43-101 mineral resource estimate for the Las Bolas Property. Las Bolas is one small portion of the Company's extensive claim holdings which cover the historic Uruachic mining camp located in the Sierra Madre mountain range of northwestern Mexico." More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

ECU Silver to Increase Gold and Reports on Gold Dore for August - "In the month of August, the oxide mill generated 37 dore bars with a total weight of 733 kilograms (kg). The assays of the dore bars indicated that they contained a total of approximately 495 ounces of gold and 12,838 ounces of silver. To date, 219 bars have been generated with a total weight of 4,513 kg containing 2,740 ounces of gold and 88,961 ounces of silver." More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

Timberline Provides Economic Update On Butte Highlands Gold Project, Announces Amended Warrant Terms - "Based on our internal analysis to date, we expect annualized production beginning in late 2010 or early 2011 of approximately 50,000 - 75,000 ounces of gold at an estimated cost of $400 to $500 per ounce. At an average expected grade of 0.27 ounces of gold per ton, and a projected production rate of 750 tons per day, the Butte Highlands Gold Project is expected to have a mine life of over seven years and provide an average annual net income of $34,300,000 based on a gold price of $1,000 per ounce. Timberline's 50% interest in annualized net income would, therefore, be anticipated to be $17,150,000. A sensitivity analysis using gold prices of $800 and $900 per ounce projects Timberline's average annual net income to be $10,900,000 and $14,000,000, respectively." More
- September 24, 2009 | Item | E-mail

- Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

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