-- Posted 27 April, 2010 | | Source: SilverSeek.com
| Close | Gain/Loss |
Gold | $1161.55 | +$8.10 |
Silver | $18.10 | -$0.20 |
XAU | 171.89 | -0.35% |
HUI | 443.69 | +0.61% |
GDM | 1333.61 | +0.59% |
JSE Gold | 2321.12 | +8.21 |
USD | 82.34 | +0.95 |
Euro | 131.80 | -2.15 |
Yen | 107.29 | +0.87 |
Oil | $82.44 | -$1.76 |
10-Year | 3.690% | -0.125 |
T-Bond | 117.34375 | +1.34375 |
Dow | 10991.99 | -1.90% |
Nasdaq | 2741.46 | -2.04% |
S&P | 1183.71 | -2.34% |
The Metals:
Gold traded mostly slightly higher in Asia before it fell back off in London to see a loss of $7.45 at as low as $1146.00 by about 9AM EST and then shot to a new session high of $1164.40 by late morning in New York to see a gain of $10.95, but it then fell back off a bit into the close and ended with a gain of 0.7%. Silver fell to $18.06 and rose to $18.397 before it fell off rather markedly in the last couple of hours of trade and ended near its late session low of $18.025 with a loss of 1.09%. Both metals have risen in after hours access trade and the time of writing.
Euro gold rose to a new all-time high above €876, platinum lost $24 to $1714, and copper fell over 16 cents to about $3.36.
Gold and silver equities fell over 1% at the open before they rallied to see slight gains by late morning and then fell back off again to see over 1% losses by early afternoon, but they rallied back higher in the last few hours of trade and ended mixed and near unchanged.
The Economy:
Report | For | Reading | Expected | Previous |
Case-Shiller 20-city Index | Feb | 0.64% | 1.1% | -0.73% |
Consumer Confidence | Apr | 57.9 | 53.5 | 52.3 |
Tomorrow at 2:15PM EST brings the FOMC announcement that is expected to keep the fed funds rate in its record low range of 0.00% to 0.25%.
The Markets:
Charts Courtesy of http://finance.yahoo.com/
Oil fell as the U.S. dollar index and treasuries rose after increased worries over Greece and other European nation’s debt sent the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P about 2% lower on the day. Today’s 2-year note auction drew a high yield of 1.024% with a bid to cover of 3.03.
Among the big names making news in the market today were US Airways, Nokia, Western Union, Goldman Sachs, CIT, Wal-Mart, and Ford.
The Commentary:
“The gold price on the Technical front has broken resistance and once it moves will move up strongly. At the moment it is waiting for significant news to set it off.
- Right now the Russian central bank appears to have a 'limit' order [only buying at or below a given price] to buy gold and picks up good tonnage waiting for prices to dip below or to that limit and does not chase prices [hence the 15.5 tonnes last month].
- China is, I believe in the open market cautiously following the same policy as well as buying most if not all of its own local production. Between them they are underpinning the gold price.
- Institutional investors at the fund level are cautious and buy in bursts as the price starts to rise, then retreat on a fall or consolidation. This buying is strong in Europe on the London Bullion market and is physical gold buying [not like COMEX - an essentially cash market]. This comes from Europe and the East.
- The I.M.F. says it has sold another 5.6 tonnes of gold but has not named the buyer [a central bank], which is contrary to its stated policy of transparency. I am waiting for confirmation of this.
- Venezuela may nationalize the gold mines, but it is unlikely they will lower production so the effect on the gold price itself is neutral in the short term but positive for gold in the long term if production slumps, which it tends to do when government run.
- Perhaps the key story turning gold positive is on the currency front. U.S. traders like to push gold in the opposite direction to the U.S. $. They measure the $ against the € and don't seem to accept that the € has little in common with gold. The € has lost confidence over the last few weeks because of Greece, and Portugal is now expected to join Greece on this front. I believe the U.K. has worse problems and the U.S. has a similar debt problem as well. So at the moment with the € losing reputation gold is in the process of de-coupling from currencies in general in fits and starts. Eventually gold will be measured in local currencies by local investors with little reference to the U.S. $. Currencies will then be measured against gold, reflecting falling confidence in the currency system itself. Although gold will never again be a means of exchange, it will rise as a measure of value [I am writing a piece on this now]. This is the crux of the future of gold as international tensions in the monetary world rise on the back of debt/banking problems. I do expect these to be accompanied by the imposition of Capital/Exchange Controls in some countries.
- So in summary you are seeing a sea change for gold as tides and currents change. There is a point in this process like the sea where these changes are not yet seen as sea levels on the shore.”- Julian D.W. Phillips, www.goldforecaster.com
“Well, the open interest numbers for Friday's big gains in both gold and silver were a surprise... as the open interest went in entirely different directions for each metal. Gold's o.i. was up 9,673 contracts on decent volume of 152,501 contracts. Silver's o.i. was down 1,246 contracts. Volume was a chunky 52,493 contracts, of which about 25% were roll-overs. This dichotomy is strange... and neither Ted Butler nor myself had any kind of explanation that we'd bet any money on.
Today is options expiry... plus all the switching has to be done by the end of trading on Thursday... as Friday is first notice day in the May delivery contract for silver... so trading action between now and then will be even more fast and furious than it has been lately.
The CME Delivery Report on Monday showed that 14 gold and one whole silver contract are up for delivery on Wednesday. So far in April... 13,264 gold contracts and 473 silver contracts were delivered. Gold's delivery numbers are pretty normal... but for silver, the 473 contracts in a non-delivery month is quite a bit. Several years ago, this sort of activity in a non-delivery month was unheard of. Now it happens all the time.
The GLD ETF had another big addition yesterday. This time it was 195,744 troy ounces. Since February 23rd... 1,261,260 troy ounces of gold have been added to GLD... about 3.5%. All of this gold has been added because of the rally in the gold price in the last few months. But over at the SLV ETF since February 26th, there have been 18.1 million ounces of silver withdrawn. All this silver was most likely withdrawn by authorized participants because the silver was needed elsewhere. If the SLV ETF had been adding silver at the same rate as they were adding gold to the GLD... then the SLV should have another 13 million ounces in it by now. Not one ounce has been added to SLV since February 26th. The reason, you ask? There isn't any available in this quantity.”– From Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Daily, read the full report here.
“U.S. Stock Market – This is as good as time as any for me to reflect back on what I’ve said since the DJIA made an all-time high in October 2007 and what has actually taken place.
Just a couple days after that all-time high, I wrote it was not only time to sell all stocks except those related to precious metals but also time to actually short the stock market. The results were the worst stock market decline in the modern era. Then, just a day before the ultimate low, I wrote I was removing my bear suit and looking for the mother of all bear market rallies. Shocking as it was, I even went so far as to recommend stocks like Microsoft and Intel (Forgive me Father, for I have sinned).
While many prominent bears have been skinned by remaining bearish or becoming bearish through this rally, I’ve thankfully refrained from putting my bear suit back on again (despite a barrage of emails and questions at conferences about how I’m going to miss the top). I’ve argued that the economic rebound (albeit not something to be proud of), should continue through at least the June/July period of 2010. While DJIA 11,000 was the upside envisioned from the dark days of early 2009, in recent times I suggested we can add several hundred points before the end of this “bear market” rally comes to “bear.”
While we’re overdue for a correction/consolidation, I believe we’re in the midst of a mini-market-melt-up whereupon professional investors who have greatly underperformed are being forced to buy in for fear of missing the big enchilada. The public in general has also missed much of this and I’m now hearing all the typical catch-phrases the public utters as it runs into a move far more closer to the end versus the beginning.
I continue to believe the overall trend remains up into summer but come late summer/early Fall, the hot topic that will grip the markets and be the likely catalyst to finally put an end to this incredible bear market rally shall be the November elections and the political polarization of America.
Gold – Getting past the usual games played on options expiration days like today, gold remains in the “mother” of all secular bull markets. While we know gold is the ultimate hated investment by those in and around the investment community, it has been especially frowned upon by prediction after prediction of its demise (bubble, top, etc.) only to blow through those feeble lines in the sand.
You should recall when I turned bullish on the U.S. Dollar I also said fears of gold’s demise due to a stronger U.S. Dollar were misplaced and the surprise would be how well gold does despite the fears. Well, look at it in terms of currencies outside of the U.S. Dollar and all you see are numerous record highs. You’re never ever going to get confirmation of gold’s bullishness from Wall Street or the media in general, for to believe in $2,000+ means you also don’t buy into “Happy Days Are Here Again.”
U.S. Dollar – The bear market rally marches on and I continue to believe the upside shall be limited to the 83-84 area basis the U.S. Dollar Index. The so-called economic rebound should underpin the dollar for the foreseeable future, but this bear market rally is just that: a countertrend rally within a long-term secular bear market.
U.S. Interest Rates – Despite what you may hear from Wall Street, interest rates should and would be much higher if not for one thing: the Fed. Despite the mother of all artificial markets, America shall pay for this down the road along with its incredible debt levels and no Fed finger in the dyke shall forever keep it plugged.
Oil and Gas – Americans may have grown accustomed to current gasoline prices but that doesn’t take away from the fact of how much it hurts the economy. $90+ oil appears in the cards and that can be an added top factor by late summer. The world is overflowing with natural gas and we could see $2 again this summer.”- Peter Grandich, Grandich Letter
“Dear CIGAs,
Market moving news today was the downgrade of Portugal’s debt rating by S&P from “A” to “A-." That sent the Euro tumbling back down after it looked as if it might have been making a short term bottom on fading Greece concerns. Voila! To add insult to injury, they also cut Greece’s sovereign credit ratings to junk level and the “fade” on Greece quickly morphed into a panic! That sent global equity markets into a tizzy and down they all went with bonds shooting sharply higher as money was quickly sucked out of equities and jammed into “safe haven” bonds.
The result – safe haven flows on the Continent into gold which continues to display strong buying interest on dips in price in Euro terms. This strength is feeding directly into Dollar based gold buying allowing gold bulls to mount a run into the bullion bank resistance line just above the $1162 level. As expected, they are fighting like hell to try to prevent a technical breakout on the charts.
The bullion banks have the computer algorithms at their back today as the swooning Euro is triggering rather broad-based commodity selling by the hedge funds. Witness the big drop in crude oil, soybeans, corn, copper, etc. When you get this sort of thing occurring, gold also gets sold by these programs but even in spite of that, there is sufficient buying occurring that is not only precluding a sell off in the gold market but is also allowing it to work higher against the tide. It does however make it more challenging for the gold bulls to beat back the selling that the Comex gang is hurling their way. That is why you have to be the more impressed by the tenacity of the gold bulls who are counterpunching and making quite a battle royale at this critical technical juncture on the price chart.
Remember how back in February through March, the banks were capping the rise in gold at the $1130 level? Gold spent more than a month knocking up against their selling before it finally kicked down that door and then went on the climb past $1170 before retreating a bit. Now these same banks are trying to hold the metal at the $1162 level in order to prevent a climb past $1175 which will open the door for a run at $1200. As long as gold continues climbing higher in terms of other various foreign currencies, the gold bears will have their work cut out for them.
The HUI (gold and silver shares) is following the broader equity markets lower but is also seeing a fair amount of buying tied to the performance of gold with the silver issues getting tugged lower due to silver’s downdraft today. Once gold can take out $1175 and begin a push towards $1200, the gold shares will follow it higher irrespective of what the broader equity markets are doing.
Back to the bonds for a moment – the huge surge of money into the sector enabled the long bond to break out above last week’s high on what looks like pretty decent volume so far. The level near 118^20 has been formidable resistance on the charts and it appears to be holding even now. However, should it give way before the day’s trading is wrapped up, bonds have a good chance to take a run to this year’s high near 119^20. One thing appears to be certain for now, the bond vigilantes are going into hiding having failed to take out the bottom end of this year’s trading range. If the bulls can take price through that February high, they will more than likely be able to set up a charge towards 124. Needless to say, the feds are LOVING this right now as they can issue more and more debt and still have the market buy the crap even as the Dollar moves higher. Who says that someone else’s misery is not another’s blessing? Obama and Bernanke should both be genuflecting towards Europe each and every day and giving thanks for its misery. Were it not for that, both would be watching bond sales plummeting and the Dollar swooning.
The Dollar is winning the “which currency stinks the least” race for today. It has to close through 82.50 to give it another leg up on the charts and the potential to run towards 83.15 or so.
Considering the broad weakness in the stock market and the fears circulating in many of the pits today, crude oil is hanging in their rather surprisingly. Let’s see if does move lower from here and if so, whether it can maintain its footing above $80. That will tell us whether rising gasoline prices are going to be with us for May.”- Dan Norcini, More at JSMineset.com
GATA Posts:
Christian, Townsend tag-team GATA at Financial Sense over CFTC hearing
King World News adds blog commentary
Murray Pollitt: Lessons of history
The Statistics:
Activity from: 4/26/2010
Gold Warehouse Stocks: | 10,157,947 | -96 |
Silver Warehouse Stocks: | 115,149,017 | -319,369 |
Global Gold ETF Holdings
[WGC Sponsored ETF’s]
| Product name | Total Tonnes | Total Ounces | Total Value |
New York Stock Exchange Arca (NYSE Arca) AND Singapore Exchange (SGX) AND Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) AND Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx) | SPDR® Gold Shares | 1146.216 | 36,852,005 | US$42,346m |
London Stock Exchange (LSE) AND Euronext Paris AND Borsa Italiana AND Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (Deutsche Börse ) | Gold Bullion Securities | 115.63 | 362,890 | US$421m |
Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) | Gold Bullion Securities | 14.21 | 476,246 | US$530m |
Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) | New Gold Debentures | 49.18 | 1,581,287 | US$1,793m |
NASDAQ Dubai | Dubai Gold Securities | 0.155 | 4,977 | US$6m |
Note: Change in Total Tonnes from yesterday’s data: SPDR added 6.088 tonnes to a new record high holding and the LSE added 0.31 tonnes.
COMEX Gold Trust (IAU) Total Tonnes in Trust: 78.31 - No change from yesterday’s data.
Silver Trust (SLV) Total Tonnes in Trust: 8,912.94 - No change from yesterday’s data.
The Miners:
Ivanhoe’s (IVN) Shareholders' Rights Plan, Newmont’s (NEM) first quarter results, and Silver Standard’s (SSRI) exploration program update were among the big stories in the gold and silver mining industry making headlines today.
WINNERS
1. NovaGold | NG +4.36% $8.14 |
2. Aurizon | AZK +3.90% $5.33 |
3. Buenaventura | BVN+3.42% $31.71 |
LOSERS
1. Ivanhoe | IVN-7.34% $16.41 |
2. Metalline | MMG-6.03% $1.09 |
3. Mag Silver | MVG -5.31% $7.62 |
Winners & Losers tracks NYSE and AMEX listed gold and silver mining stocks that trade over $1.
All of today's gold and silver stock news:
Gold Summit Closes Private Placement - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Camino Minerals Corporation Grants Stock Options - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Stans Energy Corp. Appoints Renowned Rare Earth Metallurgist, Doctor Valery D. Kosynkin, to Its Advisory Board - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Amex Nominates Exploration Team in Mexico - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Lake Shore Gold Expands Resource Potential at Timmins Mine - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Amarok Completes Additional USD $1,000,000 Financing - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Senetek Provides Update on Firstgold Bankruptcy and Secured Assets - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Valencia Appoints Fred Leigh as President and Chief Executive Officer - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Philex Gold Completes Plan of Arrangement - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Gossan Concludes Phase III Zuliani Magnesium Process Bench Scale Tests with Excellent Results - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Newcastle Begins Geophysical Survey of Its Mollie River Property - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
American Energy Fields, Inc. Acquires Artillery Peak Uranium Project - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Focus Options its Minas Chanca Claims to Buenaventura - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Bolero Retains Mackevoy Geosciences Ltd. for Extensive Rare Earth Exploration Program in Bc - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Dagilev Capital Announces Emilio Hormaeche Appointed as President and Director of the Company - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Probe Mines Limited Announces $1,000,000 Non-Brokered Private Placement with MineralFields Group - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Alto Group Holdings Announces the Appointment of Its Newest Managing Director of Corporate Finance - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Strategic Mining's Vietnam Gold Property Classified as "Property of Merit" by Competent Person's Report - NI 43-101 Compliant - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Hathor Intersects 22.5% U3O8 Over 12 m at Roughrider East - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Capstone Reports Additional High Grade Copper-Gold Results From Minto East - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Joseph G. Spiteri Appointed to Marathon PGM Corporation Board of Directors - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Timmins Gold Corp.: Update to Mineral Resource at San Francisco Mine - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
American Manganese Inc.: Artillery Peak Manganese Project Update - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
RockBridge Doubles Size of Newfoundland Rare Earth Prospect as Work Program Continues - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Canadian Shield to Present at the 4th Annual Chinese Enterprises Outbound Investment Conference - More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Support for Ivanhoe Mines' Shareholders' Rights Plan Recommended by Two Leading Independent Proxy Advisory Firms - "Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (TSX:IVN - News)(NYSE:IVN - News)(NASDAQ:IVN - News) announced today that RiskMetrics Group and Glass Lewis & Co., two leading, independent proxy advisory firms, have recommended that shareholders vote in favour of the resolution to approve Ivanhoe Mines' amended and restated shareholders' rights plan to be considered at the company's annual general and special meeting of shareholders to be held in Vancouver May 7, 2010." More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Newmont Generates First Quarter 2010 Operating Cash Flow of $728 Million; Adjusted Net Income(1) of $408 million, up 105% from First Quarter 2009 - "Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE:NEM - News) ("Newmont" or the "Company") today announced first quarter results, with net cash from continuing operations of $728 million. Equity gold production for the quarter was 1.3 million ounces and the average realized gold price was $1,106 per ounce. Costs applicable to sales for gold were $480 per ounce on a co-product basis, resulting in adjusted net income(1) of $408 million ($0.83 per share) compared to $199 million ($0.42 per share) in the prior year quarter. Net income attributable to Newmont stockholders on a GAAP basis was $546 million ($1.11 per share) compared to $189 million ($0.40 per share) in the prior year quarter." More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
Silver Standard Provides Update on Exploration Program - "This season's exploration program will include an 18,000-meter drill program primarily focused on expanding the project's known gold resource, which was substantially increased in December 2009. Snowfield currently hosts measured and indicated gold resources of 19.77 million ounces and inferred gold resources of 10.05 million ounces, along with resources in copper, silver, and molybdenum (See the Company's NI 43-101 Technical Report dated January 14, 2010 filed on SEDAR). Geotechnical and large diameter drilling for advanced metallurgical studies will also be included as part of the drill program. Preliminary environmental and geotechnical investigations will be completed at the proposed mill tailings locations. These areas are being defined in a NI 43-101 compliant Preliminary Assessment, which is expected to be completed this quarter. A strategic review of Snowfield is underway." More
- April 27, 2010 | Item | ShareThis
- Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
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-- Posted 27 April, 2010 | |
