Sell the First of May, Return after Labor Day
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 5 September, 2008
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| The above adage is well known by precious-metals investors; in fact I used this quote in one of our monthly reports. I recall how many inquiries we received, asking if indeed I thought this summer (2008) would show the pattern similar to most summers for the precious metals. At times I questioned which direction the metals would break, but stated, as mentioned in last week’s column, our analysis forecast a long correction going into August 2008. Full Story |
Silver Calls
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 28 August, 2008
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| Before you dive too far into this missive, let me state this is NOT about call options on silver. I might address that issue at some point in the future, but this week’s commentary is about how I have “called” the silver market. Full Story |
Silver Arbitrage
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 22 August, 2008
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| We can see from this weekly chart that gold clearly outperformed silver from 1999 until 2003. The gold/silver ratio reached a high near 82 to 1 in early 2003. The trend has been down since then, meaning that silver has outperformed gold from 2003 to present, but not by much. Full Story |
Silver Gets Spiked!
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 15 August, 2008
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| Traders enjoy the leverage that can be obtained using futures and options; however, I would like to bring to your attention the ability for you to invest with commodity-like leverage without as much risk. You see, many mining companies are similar to options that have an unlimited life. How would you like to buy a low price option on silver that never expired? Full Story |
Small Cap Stocks
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 8 August, 2008
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| Many junior and senior resource companies are at very attractive levels right now, and astute investors should be carefully selecting bargains at this time. August is historically the best month to buy in to the precious metals, and many of the better-run companies are selling at attractive valuations. Full Story |
Silver and Monetary Considerations
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 31 July, 2008
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| Many of you are probably too young to appreciate the full impact of the hyperinflation in Germany after WW1. It was devastating. This picture shows you the amount of paper that was equal to one silver dollar, or ¾ of one troy ounce of fine silver. After seven years of constantly accelerating inflation, the mark is finally stabilized at the rate of over 4 trillion to a U.S. dollar. Full Story |
Silver - Euphoria
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 25 July, 2008
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| This week we took a look back into a recent issue of The Morgan Report and decided to reprint an answer we received from one of our subscribers. It seems many including us are frustrated with what is going on with the junior mining sector. In our opinion we are far from over this major bull market, but we are still in the skeptical phase where many are of the opinion that the mining sector stocks and in particular the junior mining stocks are through. Full Story |
Panic on Wall Street Is Building - Gold and Silver's Role
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 18 July, 2008
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| My worldview is that silver plays a role in the best of times and in the worst of times. Right now there is a huge shift of wealth; wealth is being created in the East and wealth is being diminished in the West. It is and has been my very studied opinion that wealth cannot be printed, and therefore the role of gold and silver at this point in time comes mainly as a means to protect or build wealth. Full Story |
Silver Short Positions Fallacies
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 7 July, 2008
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| This buying frenzy will drive the price far higher than most people imagine at this point, since there are far more “poor” people than rich people and since there is far less silver than gold available in investment form. The percentage gain in silver and silver related investments will be noted in financial history, just as the silver “corner” by the Hunt Brothers was in 1980! Full Story |
Silver and Gold Allocation
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 27 June, 2008
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| One question I often receive is how much money an investor should put into the precious metals. There is no simple answer, yet I want to remain consistent. When I wrote The Ten Rules of Silver Investing, it was stated that 10% was enough of a diversification. Since that book was published nearly a decade ago, I have told my readers that perhaps an allocation of up to 20% might be considered, due to the current economic environment on a worldwide basis. Full Story |
Silver—Two Sides of the Story
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 20 June, 2008
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| What drives the price of silver? Certainly it is a function of buying and selling pressure, and primarily, this price setting mechanism takes place on the COMEX. However, so much has been written recently about short selling, price management, and naked sales, and on and on, that I wanted to take a more basic look at demand. Full Story |
Silver - Still No Respect
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 13 June, 2008
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| I fully expect the summer months to be less than magnificently bullish for the precious metals. On the other hand, I fully expect the overall financial system to provide such huge indications of the complete instability of a monetary system without a rudder, that many astute investors will ponder the merits of anchoring their portfolios with the top-tier commodities of human existence—gold and silver. Full Story |
Precious Signs
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 6 June, 2008
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| One of the clearest signs that the bottom is complete will be the precious metal mining equities refusing to move down further in spite of the fact the metals themselves may continue to find lower prices. In other words, I fully expect to see the mining stocks form a bottom before the metals themselves. Full Story |
Silver -- Is It Yours?
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 30 May, 2008
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| In 2001 I was asked to write the “Ten Rules of Silver Investing” for the investing rules book published in Great Britain in 2001. The complete title of this book is The Global-Investor Book of Investing Rules—Invaluable Advice from 150 Master Investors. My portion is available for free to anyone on the Internet willing to sign up here. In this week’s article, let us examine Silver Investing Rule Number Six. Full Story |
Silver Price Manipulation
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 22 May, 2008
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| This week I must address the latest Commodity and Futures Trading Commission (CTFC) findings that, “The U.S. commodities regulatory body found no evidence that silver prices had been manipulated downward by short sellers after re-examining long-term and recent allegations of misconduct.” Full Story |
Silver and Gold IRAs
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 18 April, 2008
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| American Silver Eagle silver coins are approved for IRAs. Other silver approved investments must be .999 fine, which makes Canadian Silver Maple Leafs, Australian Kookaburras, Mexican Libertads, and even .999 fine silver rounds also eligible. Full Story |
Short Silver
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 3 April, 2008
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| I have forecast that at some point the physical silver market will dominate the paper silver market. The question I ask now is, “Are we there yet?” Full Story |
Significance of Silver as an Investment
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 27 March, 2008
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| In days gone by silver was not an investment it was money, in fact silver passed through more hands in everyday commerce than any other real money including gold. I state real money to distinguish silver money from modern paper money, which has flooded the world “money” supply the past three decades. Full Story |
Flashback - March 3 - Silver Update and Silver Bullion Dealer Survey
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 21 March, 2008
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| I did my Silver Bullion Dealer survey, which I have not done for some time. I personally phone most of the major physical dealers in the U.S. and ask how the orders for silver bars, rounds, and bags are doing? What I found was that most dealers reported that February was the biggest month they have had for physical silver in a very long time, additionally it was almost all buying very few sellers. We even spoke to a few dealers that were having trouble filling large orders. I want to remain objective here. We do not find this to be the case all over the country. Full Story |
The Ultimate Gold Trade
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 21 March, 2008
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| What a week for the precious metals! Gold blasts past $1000 per ounce, and silver trades above $21, and then suddenly the floor drops out from under both metals. In fact, the financial markets in general seem to be reeling from the announcements of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and Morgan buying Bear Stearns for $2 per share when this company was trading for $170 about a year ago. Full Story |
Importance of Silver and Gold
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 14 March, 2008
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| Simply, gold and silver in physical form, bullion or coins, are on one side of the economic fence and everything else is on the other side. This means that all other financial assets owned outright or otherwise are dependent upon the “system” for settlement. This is what the current strength in physical gold and silver is shouting at us right now. Full Story |
Is Silver the Sleeper?
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 7 March, 2008
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| Naturally, putting your neck out for a gold price leads to the next logical question and that is, “What price will silver reach at its high point?” This question is much more difficult to answer, because silver is not considered to be money in any government’s monetary base, either officially or unofficially. Full Story |
Silver - Good Things Come in Small Packages
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 12 January, 2008
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| Pure and simple, many people in and outside of the precious metals area have come to the conclusion that “SILVER IS TOO BULKY.” Before going off on a rant about this general (mis)perception, it becomes a challenge for this writer to lead you to draw your own conclusions. Full Story |
Taking “the Skinny” to Deutschland
By: David Morgan | 26 November, 2007
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| The market is misunderstood and participation is much better than two to three years ago, still mild relative to almost every other asset class. This of course presents opportunities for those wise enough to see them and take action. Both gold and to a lesser degree silver have held up well this year and continue to show strength. Full Story |
Rich Investor, Poor Investor
By: David Morgan | 27 July, 2007
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| With the real estate market having a surplus in some of the major boom areas, and aboveground silver supplies dwindling dangerously low, having lost approximately 1.5 billion ounces of the 2-billion-ounce inventory since 1980, don’t you think chance favors taking profits on some of the more marginal real estate holdings and moving some of your assets into the precious metals sector? Full Story |
The Silver Millionaire
By: David Morgan | 30 June, 2007
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| If the inflationary pressures continue to build as the U.S. “dollar” continues to be printed to service the outstanding debt obligations, it is quite possible that the number of paper millionaires will increase over time. However, the ability to become a real millionaire—a “silver millionaire”—will become more and more difficult. Full Story |
What About Silver Demand ?
By: David Morgan | 26 August, 2005
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| The basic premise is that all we need to do to analyze the silver market correctly is to look at the supply. If we focus on the supply of silver and realize that the supply is increasing primarily because the 200 million ounces of silver that used to come back into the market as photo recycling may be as low as 185 million ounces due to digital photography. Secondly base metals mining is up significantly and therefore byproduct silver is up as well. The increase of silver produced in 2004 was estimated to be 23 million ounces greater than 2003. Full Story |
Historic Silver - Headed for Higher Ground
By: David Morgan | 23 February, 2005
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| With the rise in silver prices these past two years, silver is becoming an ever-more attractive and exciting metal to investors. This is not fluke. Many understand that although the price has risen in U.S. dollar terms, the true gain has not been significant yet! Since the U.S. dollar has almost constantly been losing purchasing power these past several years, price alone does not tell the full story. Full Story |
The Silver Trap – and Its Explosive Trigger
By: David Morgan | 31 January, 2005
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| The trigger is about to detonate, the time frame however cannot be known exactly. Those that attended the recent Vancouver Investment Conference know that near term my forecast is for a wide trading range in the precious metals based mostly upon the USD Index. This expectation however can change instantly because of politics or financial events. Regardless, the Silver Trap will ensnare most of the world’s economies, large and small - the wary and unwary, rich and poor, high and low – all God’s creatures – who have forgotten about the power of this explosive money metal and how quickly prices can rise once a tipping point is reached. Full Story |
Let’s Get Physical
By: David Morgan | 13 December, 2004
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| As most Internet readers are well aware, I have not published at any consistent frequency these past several months. Most of our time and energy has been for our paid readership but certainly it is our duty to continue our work in the Free Market of Ideas. One of the most significant silver gatherings just took place at the Northwest Mining Association Conference in Spokane, Washington state last week. The CFTC senior economist Mr. David Kass did a presentation overview of the CFTC and then went into specifics on the silver market. Full Story |
Poor Man’s Gold
By: David Morgan, Silver Investor | 3 August, 2004
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| Currently we are watching what has happened following the break in the XAU and the HUI and gold and silver. Gold being the stalwart, held much more firmly than silver. Silver left two open gaps on the chart and it will take some time for the market to consolidate and fill these gaps. Our analysis remains that the fourth quarter of the year 2004 will show significant improvement in metals prices and the underlying shares. Additionally, we are looking for significant upside price movement in the first quarter of 2005. Right now, the dollar seems to be showing some strength. The election has most of the attention focused away from investments. Full Story |
Silver - Don't Panic!
By: David Morgan, Stone Investment Group | 15 April, 2004
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| Today we saw a sharp sell off in silver. Those that have followed the silver marker closely know that silver is not only a smaller market than gold, but also moves in greater percentages both up and down. Gold was off three percent, but silver fell over seven percent! From a longer term perspective we wish to remind readers of the fact that just one year ago silver was almost exactly three dollars (U.S. dollars) lower than yesterday’s close. Certainly in our view the longer term major trend is still UP, however this break of the recent parabolic move in silver prices is suggesting to us that a pullback to the seven dollar level could be expected. Full Story |