The Premier Silver Resource Website

Live Spot Silver
Silver Market Articles
Silver Discussions at the Forum
Silver Company Links
Silver Market Updates
Silver & Gold Headlines
Silver Stock News
Silver Equity Quotes
Silver & Precious Metals Quotes

Is Dishoarding Massive Quantities of Silver from India Likely?

By: Julian D. W. Phillips, Gold/Silver Forecaster - Global Watch

-- Posted 19 February, 2008 | | Discuss This Article - Comments: 15th February 2008



ilver prices are at their peak and look as though they are going to go higher, once this period of consolidation is out of the way.   Silver prices have risen steadily over the years alongside gold despite there being both a surplus and government selling of stockpiles.   When we hear reports that the surplus for 2008 will be over 7,000 tonnes eyebrows rise as we see prices continue to rise.   However, other surplus projections are as low as 700 tonnes, which is more consistent with the silver price moves.   If the surplus is so high, then why is the silver price rising?   This tells us that it is far lower and far more difficult to access than one thinks.   Why?


The prime overall reason is that statistics may show these figures but are these amounts available in the market place?   The surplus is an overall figure that may or may not reach the marketplace.   The surplus, whatever it is will appear steadily over the year, not at any one time such as the start point.   The current silver price tells us that silver is not available over and above current market demand, or the silver price would not be rising.   At best the full real picture of the silver market is nigh on impossible to quantify accurately.  How much silver will come off tables and go down to a scrap merchant, then to the refinery and then to the market cannot be measured.  And there are many other such obstacles that may surprise one. 


Take the situation in India, where the silver market, we are told, is nearly dying.   There are huge volumes of silver bought over time there, so why doesn’t it leave the homes in which it is kept and travel to the market?  Once there why don’t merchants then take it in at the prices they offer, parcel it up and ship it to the international markets to get the apparent profit?


In India, the main buyers of silver and gold [70%] are rural people, who do not suffer income tax on their farming income.   When they sell their produce they are paid cash and don’t generally have a bank account.   Rather than keep this paper medium of exchange in their house they take the money and buy gold and silver for cash, which then make up their savings.   Over the last few years the rising prices of the two precious metals has confirmed the wisdom of such policies.


However, should the need arise for them to sell their gold and silver, they approach their dealer.   When he buys, he has to report the transaction “officially” and pay purchase tax, which is enormous relative to his profits.   He also would have to expose his complete business to the authorities, whose reputation is more than poor.   Should he then want to export this purchased metal, he needs to reflect the metal in his accounts and confirm purchase tax has been paid.   With a similar aversion to tax as one has to the plague, dealers buy such scrap for cash and hoard it in their own private invisible stores.   Then out of the sight of Indian authorities again, he will hedge his long position on the international exchanges through a short position, matching the long position he has, thus removing the price risk on the metal, again in a secretive manner.


Remarkably then NO gold or silver is exported from India, despite this invisible surplus.   The only sign of it is in the short positions [Commercial] on international exchanges.


This helps us to appreciate that there is little need to invest through Indian gold or silver Exchange Traded Funds, hence their poor performance.   Hoarding of gold and silver in India is huge proven by the fact that none is exported, perhaps more than the tonnages held in non-Indian Exchange Traded Funds?


“There will be no exports of silver from India!”



This is a snippet from the recent issue of the weekly newsletter from:


For the entire report, please visit








Legal Notice / Disclaimer

This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Gold Forecaster - Global Watch / Julian D. W. Phillips / Peter Spina, have based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Gold Forecaster - Global Watch / Julian D. W. Phillips / Peter Spina make no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Gold Forecaster - Global Watch / Julian D. W. Phillips / Peter Spina only and are subject to change without notice. Gold Forecaster - Global Watch / Julian D. W. Phillips / Peter Spina assume no warranty, liability or guarantee for the current relevance, correctness or completeness of any information provided within this Report and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Furthermore, we assume no liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage or, in particular, for lost profit, which you may incur as a result of the use and existence of the information, provided within this Report.

-- Posted 19 February, 2008 | | Discuss This Article - Comments:

Article Archives is presented to you by:

© 2003 - 2011, Silver Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.


The views contained here may not represent the views of, its affiliates or advertisers. makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.