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Some Things Never Change

By: Warren Bevan

-- Posted 20 May, 2009 | | Discuss This Article - Comments:

Last week GFMS and the Silver Institute released their annual press release which sums up the basic supply demand equation.  GFMS is renowned for their bearish stance on gold and silver and have been very conservative and wrong for the duration of this precious metals bull market.  They are still singing the same old song this year and are calling for more downward pressure than upward.  Some things never change.

          I couldn’t help notice the EXACT same supply as demand for both 2007 and 2008.  The total is, as seen below 888.4 million oz.  You’d think a market with supply/demand equilibrium would be under more pressure to move up or increase production but that appears not to be the case according to the GFMS data.



          This prompted me to take a look back at their annual releases of these numbers in May of every year to 2000.  Interestingly enough the 2007 figures were revised lower by 6.1 million oz and also presented the same situation of a supply demand equilibrium.  You can view the yearly releases dating back to 2000 below.










          After looking through all the figures for each year dating back to 2000 there were revisions to each year either up or down but more importantly the supply and demand matched exactly both before and after revision for each year from 2000 to 2008.


          That simple fact alone tells me this analysis is disingenuous and inaccurate.  Every year their silver forecasts have been subdued and plainly wrong.  If I were to be bearish on a market where both industrial, (377.1 in 2000 to 447.2 in 2008), and investment demand, (16.8 in 2001 to 50.2 in 2008), had been rising for eight years but supply had been in a flat to falling trend I wouldn’t expect to have credibility, let alone have chutzpa to continue to publish the figures and even more-so tout bearish propaganda.


          The GFMS executive chairman recently refused to debate GATA and likened them to the IRA.  Without getting into the massive amounts of disinformation published by his company and just looking at the above I see how the only response possible from Philip Klapwijk would be to try to discredit, slander and smugly refuse.  Underneath all his makeup he was surely sweating bullets for he knows he could not hold a candle to the massive amount of public information that GATA has collected over the years.


          It matters not since each individual can so easily today study the information available on the internet and come to their own conclusions.  While Mr Klapwijk’s comments apparently were received with roaring laughter.  There were surely many in that very same room smiling and laughing, but knowing deep down just how wrong this gentleman is, and how right GATA is.


          In my free, nearly weekly newsletter I include many links which cannot always be viewed through sites which publish my work.  If you are having difficulties viewing them please sign up in the left margin for free at or send an email to with “subscribe” as the subject and receive the newsletter directly in your inbox, links and all.  If you would like to see what my portfolio consists of please see here.

Until next week take care and thank you for reading. 

Warren Bevan

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-- Posted 20 May, 2009 | | Discuss This Article - Comments:

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