-- Posted 4 June, 2009 | | Discuss This Article - Comments:

Having looked out to months if not years and decades in our last article, we shift to the other end of the scale and how the eight hour chart of silver is going. I mentioned a near top to subscribers recently and one target price was the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire March to November 2008 drop. On the NYSE that drop was $20.90 to $8.79 and if we do our sums that retracement comes out at $16.27. Yesterday silver got as high as $16.23 and has reacted to the downside with a dollar drop so far.

We also mentioned that the US Dollar may find support at its last major bottom of about 78 in mid-December and this would cause a negative reaction in silver and gold. The Elliott Wave count for the move since 17^th April offers support for this thesis as the chart below suggests.

An identifiable 12345 impulse wave can be seen which could now see downside to the next major level of support. The alternate wave count is given below which allows for a little more upside in the days ahead. Once this correction finishes it is one more surge up to new multi-month highs for silver. The alternate count is invalidated if silver drops below a price of $14.80 which is a violation of wave 2 territory.

Further analysis of silver can be had by going to our silver blog at http://silveranalyst.blogspot.com where readers can obtain a free issue of The Silver Analyst and learn about subscription details. Comments and questions are also invited via email to silveranalysis@yahoo.co.uk.