-- Posted 27 April, 2011 | | Discuss This Article - Comments:
Back on February 18th I wrote an editorial showing that Silver could rocket up to $52 to $56 by mid-year. At the time of the writing Silver was sitting a little above $32 on the price chart. The original chart work was based off of the fractal chart work I do with Silver from previous fractal time periods. So far the rise in Silver appears to be right on track for our expected targets to be approached into mid-year. I will post a link to the original article, below, for your perusal.
Silver has entered the more parabolic path of this historic PM Bull very much like it did back in the late 70’s. If you want to get a general idea of how far Silver still had to run back in the 19780’s, you can look at the original article link, above, where I posted a long-term chart of Silver back to the 70’s. On the 70’s chart of Silver in that article, I placed a circle on the analogous place for Silver in the 70’s compared to where Silver was on the chart when I wrote the original public article.
To some extent, Silver is like the canary in the coal mine when it comes to the Vth Wave advance of the Precious Metals Bull. The price of Silver acted the same way in the 1970’s PM Bull Market since it takes a lot less speculative money to drive the price of Silver parabolic than it does for Gold. Don’t forget the many times when Silver has led a charge in the PM sector to new highs only to be left like Wiley Coyote running into thin air off of a cliff.
Obviously, something is different “this time.” This time Silver has run wild on the upside, and Gold is following in its footsteps. In fact, smaller investors can help to contribute to the advance into Wave V for Silver since it is easier for them to accumulate a larger amount of Silver with its lower price. This is one point in a market cycle where what many call “Smart Money” can be out-run by smaller investors.
The early run by Silver into Vth Wave Chart Metrics, or phase transition into the true Vth Wave Channel, is the early recognition point for all of the markets that the Vth Wave devaluation in the U.S. Dollar is at hand. Markets are discounting mechanisms, and the move of Silver into the Vth Wave Channel leads Gold into its own Vth Wave Channel slope of rise by just an eyelash on the long-term charts.
THE FRACTAL SILVER CHART
A look at the chart below of Fractal Silver in comparison to the previous fractal period in the recent past-2006 shows that Silver is approaching the lower red dotted line in the current time period very similarly to how it did back in the 2006 period. This rise has important ramifications for Gold, but I will include those comments in a different update on the Fractal Charts of Gold that I expect to come out later this week.
(This Fractal Silver Chart was created on February 20th of this year. I have moved the black and the red arrows in this recent time-frame up on the chart so that I can show some Fractal Relationships in a series of current public editorial updates that will be coming out over the next few days. We provide a more focused view of many of these relationships to the subscribers at our website.)
The topping pattern for Silver in Fractal 2006 created some real volatility in price going forward as many investors tried to call a top prematurely. You really can’t blame investors for wanting to take huge profits after riding Silver for such a big move. If we get a similar type of topping pattern as the 2006 period, we will likely see Silver trade up to around the $58 level into mid-year. The fractal target off of the 1970’s fractal chart remains at $52.8, but in this historic PM Bull, price targets could easily be higher.
Notice the similarity of the TA Indicators on the chart that I had circled back when I originally introduced this chart of Fractal Silver. The developing comparisons of the TA Indicators to Price, compared to 2006, are uncanny. On our site we will be using the timing off of fractal charts like these to guide and to monitor our investing endeavors.
Everybody is looking at this huge move in Silver and trying to gauge price movements going forward by looking at the recent past. In the recent past Silver was not moving up in a true Vth Wave rise-phase transition to Wave V, if you will. Some are already suggesting that Silver investors will get gored by this Bull in the immediate future, but investors may need to think a bit differently in a Vth wave sloped advance than in other price advances.
Sure, there will be some heavy selling once Silver has topped, and there will be some real fear as investors are scared to death about a 2008-like fall. 2008 was 2008, however, and it could be readily seen in the Fractal Charts of the 1970’s. Thus, I am suggesting that you look to the 70’s chart of Silver I provided in the original article to get some feel in relation to the fractal moves of Silver in that time period. The Fractal 70’s chart suggests that at this point in the cycle there will be huge, huge bids for Silver somewhere below price by big money salivating over the higher Vth Wave moves of Silver into the future.
For the moment,
Goldrunner is a frequent contributor to www.munKNEE.com and maintains a subscription site at www.GOLDRUNNERFRACTALANALYSIS.COM where he focuses on the Precious Metals Sector in general including the Precious Metals Stock Charts.
Please understand that the above is just the opinion of a small fish in a large sea. None of the above is intended as investment advice, but merely an opinion of the potential of what might be. Simply put:
The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Comments within the text should not be construed as specific recommendations to buy or sell securities. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities. Do your own due diligence regarding personal investment decisions. In the interest of full disclosure, GOLDRUNNER is personally invested in the Precious Metals sector including various Precious Metals and other individual stocks. GOLDRUNNER reserves the right to modify or eliminate any or all positions at any point in time.
-- Posted 27 April, 2011 | | Discuss This Article - Comments: