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-- Posted 10 April, 2004 | Digg This Article
FRIDAY, April 9th, 2004
This week's report lists 102 silver stocks. There are 31 silver stocks that list reserves, resources (and exploration potential.) which I calculate by using my "ounce in the ground" forumula. There are 47 explorers. There are about 24 additional "silver" stocks with incomplete information. Additions & Changes from last week are in bold.
If this is the first time you have seen this report, please try to read the entire report before sending me an email. This report goes out now to over 8900 investors each week in email.
If you are an Accredited or Sophisticated investor and want information I may find out about private placement opportunities in some of the very best silver stocks in my opinion, (This is not a solicitation for any stock, and I'm not brokering any securities) email me with PP in the subject field: jasonhommel@yahoo.com
If you want to receive an email notice of when and where this FREE weekly report is published, sign up at GoldIsMoney.com Anyone who signs up will also get a FREE e-book that explains the bullish case for gold and especially silver. If you have studied the silver market at all, then the time has come that you ought to be a teacher, and you ought to explain the silver story to all who will listen. GoldIsMoney.com is designed to help spread the word. I suggest you email the link to your address book.
To read about my religious bias, see my other website, bibleprophesy.org There are two essays near the top of the page that explain why I believe the entire world will return to using gold and silver as money again before the end times. Hint, see Ezekiel 38. To read more about my religious bias when it comes to investing, see my essay, Biblical Guidelines for Managing your Money
Kitco reports silver at $8.14 as of Friday, 3:00 PM West Coast US, which was used to calculate the following figures. The CAN $ / US $ conversion factor is .7531. I will use .75 for ease. Silver continues to rise, from Friday to Friday for the past 7 weeks. Report #29: $8.12, #28: $7.71, #27: $7.53, #26: $7.03, #25: $6.95, #24: $6.70, #23: $6.49
How to read the following table:
Stock Symbol that works at Yahoo! Finance (Company name) / Silver oz. "in ground" for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock. / valuation price change since last week relative to silver price change (and stock dilution, and resource changes, if any) / additional comments (EXPT is "exploration potential")
- HL (HECLA MINING CO) .31 down --current producer (gold bonus) cash rich.
- ABX (BARRICK) 1.1 even --infamous hedger (18 mil oz. gold hedged, 3 yrs production)
- IPOAF.PK (INDUSTL PENOLES) 1.4 up --current producer, mostly family owned.
- CDE (COEUR D'ALENE) 1.5 down --current producer, (gold bonus) in debt.
- SIL (APEX SILVER) 3.7 down --large zinc bonus, low grades, cash rich--$345 million! in debt
- CFTN.PK (CLIFTON MINING) 3.8 up -- (90 EXPT) (colloidal silver patent bonus)
- GRS GAM.TO (GAMMON LAKE) 4.0 up --current producer, owns 26% of Mexgold
- FSR.TO FSLVF.PK (FIRST SILVER) 4.4 down --current producer, (not profitable '03 3rd q.) unhedged
- MFN MFL.TO (MINEFINDERS) 4.7 down --significant gold bonus, $35 mil cash on hand.
- KBR.V KBRRF.PK (KIMBER RSCS) 5.2 down A one property company, high grades, with exploration potential.
- PAAS (PAN AMERICAN SILVER) 5.3 down --current producer, in debt.
- HGM.V HOGOF.PK (HOLMER GOLD) 5.4 down --silver project in cuba, large gold project bonus.
- WTZ WTC.TO (WESTERN SILVER) 5.6 down -- (24 EXPT) large mine development cost. copper & zinc bonus
- * TM.V TUMIF.OB (TUMI RSCS) 5.8 down -- (11 EXPT) recent bonanza grade silver discovery
- MGR.V MGRSF.PK (MEXGOLD RSCS) 7.4## up (##exploration target) -- bonanza grade discovery on Jan 13th
- SSRI SSO.V (SILVER STD RSC) 8.1 down --multi-property company, understands silver story
- ORM.V OREXF.PK (OREMEX RES) 8.1 up (34 EXPT)
- CZN.TO CZICF.PK (CDN ZINC) 9.9 down --large zinc bonus, high grades, low start up costs, great EXPT
- SRLM.PK (STERLING MINING) 17 down --(45 EXPT) acquired the Sunshine in Cour d'Alene
- RDV.TO RDFVF.PK (REDCORP VENTURE) 17 up --60% gold bonus
- FAN.TO FRLLF.PK (FARALLON RSCS) 19 up --(33 EXPT) low grades, silver 1/3; also gold & zinc bonus.
- HDA.V (HUSIF?) (HULDRA SILVER) 20 down --very tiny, no debt, zinc bonus, low start up costs.
- EXR.V EXPTF.PK (EXPATRIATE RECS) 20 down --significant zinc bonus 60% zinc, 25% silver
- * PLE.V (PLEXMAR RES INC) 21 down
- * MGN (MINES MGMT) 21 up --60% copper bonus (low grades), start up cost ~ $250 mil
- ADB.V ADBRF.PK (ADMIRAL BAY RSCS) 22 down --actively expanding resources. (Huge gas bonus)
- * SVL.V STVZF.PK (SILVRCRST MINES) 22 down --(38++ EXPT) --(Silver in Honduras) ++ added resources last week.
- CHD.V CHDSF.PK (CHARIOT RSCS) 25 down (explorer, with inferred resources)
- ASM.V ASGMF.PK (AVINO SILV GOLD) 26 down --owns 49% of the Avino +4 other silver props. (silver bonus)
- GGC.V GGCRF.PK (GENCO RESOURCES) 26 down
- UNCN.OB (UNICO INC) 58 up --lease expiring on largest property, June 1 2004.
* = I own shares
Explorers (by market cap, in millions):
- * IMR.V IMXPF.OB (IMA EXPL)
- EZM.V EZMCF.PK (EUROZINC MINING)
- CDU.V CUEAF.PK (CARDERO RSCS) 43-74 "exploration potential"
- AOT.V ASOLF.PK (ASCOT RSCS) -- owns percentage of Cardero, CDU.V
- MCAJF.PK (MACMIN LTD)
- * FCO.TO FCACF.PK (FORMATION CAPTL) Cobolt (and Sunshine silver refinery)
- TVI.TO TVIPF.PK (TVI PACIFIC) --current producer of a dore silver bar 96% silver, 4% gold
- * FR.V FMJRF.PK (FIRST MAJESTIC) -- Bought a former silver producer. Acquiring silver properties.
- * NPG.V NVPGF.PK (NEVADA PAC GOLD) 35-173 "exploration potential" (owns 1 silver property, 10 gold properties)
- SPM.V SMNPF.PK (SCORPION MINING)
- MAG.V MSLRF.PK (MAG SILVER)
- IAU.V ITDXF.PK (INTREPID MINRLS) 7 "exploration potential"
- * MMGG.OB (METALLINE MINE) --zinc/silver (historic high grade silver) (low cost revolutionary oxide zinc process)
- * OTMN.PK (O.T. MINING) very large exploration potential
- ECU.V ECUXF.PK (ECU SILVER MINI) 4.1 down --(11 EXPT) --50% gold bonus
- CAUCF.PK (CALEDON RES)
- MMM.TO MMAXF.PK (MINCO MINING)
- MAI.V MNEAF.OB (MINERA ANDES) (gold bonus)
- * EDR.V EDRGF.PK (ENDEAVOUR GOLD) A PRODUCER (I could not yet find a listing of resources or reserves)
- BZA.V ABZGF.PK (AMER BONANZA)
- DNI.V DMNKF.PK (DUMONT NICKEL) exploring Clifton's property
- EXN.V EXLLF.PK (EXCELLON RSCS)
- BCM.V BCEKF.PK (BEAR CRK MINING)
- NJMC.OB (NEW JERSEY MIN)
- * CMA.V CRMXF.OB (CREAM MINERALS) 144 "exploration potential"
- * KG.V KDKGF.PK (KLONDIKE GOLD)
- * CBE.V CBEFF.PK (CABO MINING) --Historic Silver and Cobalt district
- SML.V SMLZF.PK (STEALTH MNRLS)
- NBG.V NBULF.PK (NEW BULLET GP) 42 - 122 "exploration potential"
- SDR.V SDURF.PK (STROUD RSCS)
- CHMN.PK (CHESTER MINING)
- EPZ.V ESPZF.PK (ESPERANZA SILVR)
- GNG.V GGTHF.PK (GOLDEN GOLIATH) --Historic silver district in Mexico
- MMG.V MMEEF.PK (MCMILLAN GOLD)
- SHSH.PK (SHOSHONE SILVER)
- * KRE.V KREKF.PK (KENRICH ESKAY)
- EGD.V EGDMF.PK (ENERGOLD MINING)
- PCM.V PAOCF.PK (PAC COMOX RES)
- LEG.V LEGCF.PK (LATEEGRA RSCS)
- BGS.V BLDGF.PK (BALLAD GLD SLVR)
- * AUN.V AUNFF.PK (AURCANA CORP)
- SRY.V (STINGRAY RSCS)
- TUO.V TEUTF.PK (TEUTON RES)
- ASLM.PK (AMER SILVER MINI)
- BBR.V BBRRF.PK (BRETT RES)
- ROK.V ROCAF.PK (ROCA MINES INC)
- CBP.V CPBMF.PK (CONS PAC BAY MIN)
* = I own shares
Silver oz. "in ground" means and counts all "silver oz. in the ground" as the same, but they are NOT EQUAL. Some are more certain and others are more speculative. Some are higher grades, some are lower grades. They range from most certain to least certain such as: "proven & probable reserves," "measured, indicated, inferred resources." This single number next to each stock symbol above represents the approximate number of ounces of silver in the ground you are buying title to when you invest the equivalent of one ounce of silver into buying shares in the company at current prices. Here's the math on how to get it. 1. Get a market cap in U.S. dollars. Divide that by the silver price, so the market cap is denominated in terms of silver ounces. Then, divide the ounces in the ground by the market cap as denominated in silver. This tells you how many ounces of silver in the ground you are buying when you give up one ounce of silver in you hand for shares of stock, instead.
(It does not include zinc, or copper, or lead, but it does include gold at a 1:10 ratio of gold:silver.) At goldsheetlinks.com, they add 100% of proven & probable reserves, but only 70% of measured & indicated resources, and only 50% of inferred resources. I don't do that. I count them as all the same.
To quickly "tab" down to the company you are interested in, note the symbol. Then hit "control-F" to "FIND" the symbol below.
___________
If I use a word you don't understand and is not listed in the dictionary at www.m-w.com you can look up the meaning at http://investorwords.com/
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WEEKLY COMMENTARY (All new in this section):
http://news.silverseek.com/TacticalInvestor/1081545404.php
The link above contains two outstanding and short articles on silver by Sol Palha and Alan Lunt of www.tacticalinvestor.com
Key phrase: "When silver breaks free of the COMEX it will be of such value that it's "spending power" will be greater than it was under the gold standard for the simple reason that there is a lot less of it."
My comments: Well, what did an ounce of silver buy during the age of the gold standard? I remember reading an article where a man's suit was sold for $1.50 in a Sear's catalog in the early 1900's. That coinage contained about an ounce of silver. Today, I suppose the equivalent would be a suit from the Men's Wearhouse that would run about $300. Yes, an ounce of silver will soon buy perhaps about 2-3 men's suits, and be worth about $600 to $900 in today's money, because silver is so very, very, very scarce these days compared to the olden days. We used all the silver up, and melted most of the coinage down to take pictures, and build electronics over the years. It's just about all gone! And now we are using the equivalent of rocks, or beans for money, that somehow, is "worth a lot". One day, the people will wake up, and realize the fraud of paper, and when they turn to silver, the price will just explode. And when the dust settles, the real buying power value of silver... and who cares how many dollars that will be then... will be just tremendous compared to what an ounce of silver is worth today.
---------------------------
April 7, 2004
Silver a Sell, Unless The Jig is Up
By Brady Willett
http://www.fallstreet.com/apr704.php
In the article above, the author concludes, "Although I have my doubts that the jig will ever really be up, if the manipulation is exposed look for panicked buying in silver and plenty of defaults."
My opinion is that, yes, the Jig is Up, so silver is a buy!
Amazingly, Brady Willett just exposed the manipulation! Thus, he should expect panic buying at any time! And so do I!
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Title: Exchange to Increase Margin Rates on Silver Contracts
NEW YORK, N.Y., April 6, 2004; The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc., announced today that it will increase the margins on its COMEX Division silver futures contracts at the close of business tomorrow.
The margins for all months will increase to $2,500 from $2,000 for clearing members and members and to $3,375 from $2,700 for customers.
My comments: The margin increases are often said to be a reflection of the desperation of the shorts, and said to mean that the shorts are playing manipulative games, and changing the rules in order to scare the longs to sell.
At first glance, it may seem rather manipulative and unfair to give the longs what looks like a margin call, when they are ahead. Usually, the longs get margin calls only when silver is down, not up! It's like they want more money from the paper longs whether silver is up or down! On the surface, it seems rather unfair. But let's analyse it with the 7th grade math here.
Back when the margins were last raised a few months ago, silver was about $6.50, and the margin was $2700 for a contract of 5000 oz. Thus, this means a person could "control" $32,500 worth of silver ($6.50 x 5000) for $2700, which is like a down payment of about 8% (2700/23500).
Now, as silver rose to $8/oz., the value of the contract also rose to $40,000 ($8 x 5000), yet the margin stayed the same, at $2700. Now, the margin will be $3,375. Is that any more or less than the 8% that was required to hold a contract? Let's see, 3375/40,000 = just about 8%.
Now, that seems rather fair. That the margin stays the same, about at 8%. And in the meantime, from $6.50 to $8.00, the paper holder who put down only $2700 to hold a contract, held a contract the value of which changed from $32,500 to $40,000. That is a gain of the difference of $7500. (40,000 - 32,500). And now, this contract holder is being asked to put up at least 8% per contract again, and put in an additional $675 (3375-2700). Now, given that a paper long just made $7500 (on a $2700 investment) from the time of the last margin call a few months ago, and is now being asked to put $675 back in to continue to hold on to his contracts, does not seem unfair at all to me, not in the slightest.
I think the complaining that goes on around these margin hikes just goes to show the shameless and excessive greed of the paper longs, that they would even remotely complain in the slightest about such a tiny margin increase, that is really no increase at all, but just keeping pace at about 8% of the value of the contract!
Now, I do not support, nor recommend, buying or selling futures contracts. Please don't misunderstand me... I'm not arguing in favor of the shorts, or in favor of arbitrary "rule changes". I condemn the shorts far worse than the longs, but I condemn them both.
How can a person really "control" what is not yet his, not paid for, and not delivered to him? The long is NOT in control, and is being deceived and taken advantage of... deceived by his own greed and attempt to take a short cut to gaining wealth. The long will likely be defaulted on, the long cannot, in the end, receive the silver that he thinks he can control, but does not exist.
And how can a person sell what he does not possess? Such a short is a liar.
And so, I recommend taking physical possession of the silver that you think you own. Whether you own bullion at CEF, or at a bullion account, or whether stored at the COMEX, or whether through a paper futures contract, or option. You don't "control" your silver unless you have silver in your possession, in your own safe, the combination to which you know, the door to which you can open and shut at your command. Then, you "control" your silver, and not before. Anything less, is less than honest. Don't lie to yourself and say you own and control silver that is in the possession of another person!
A receipt or silver certificate is NOT the same as silver bullion. The dollar was once a silver certificate. A promise is fundamentally different from silver bullion. The promise of an honest person with high integrity, and with lots of money is still just a promise. Bullion in the hand is a different thing, it is payment in full.
Need I remind the market that four years ago Handy and Harmon, the world's largest silver refiner, went bankrupt? They could not honor their promises to deliver silver, and went out of business. Major silver miners, such as Pan American Silver, who sent silver ore to Handy and Harmon for refining lost everything they had on deposit! This refiner tried to operate their business as a bank, and they made more promises than they could deliver. Who knows whether your bullion depository company is doing the same thing? Do you really think a huge company would go into business to store your bullion, merely out of the goodness of their hearts? How likely is it that these bullion holding companies would never develop a greedy eye towards all the wealth they have in their control and in their possession?
Some Chrisitans are especially concerned about some verses contained in the Bible, regarding the possession of physical gold or silver bullion. Enough people have asked me about this verse that I must address it. If you don't want to read about Christians who are concerned about what their Bible says, please just skip this next part of my weekly commentary.
---------------------------
Dear Jason,
Matthew Chapter Six verses 19-34:
19* "Do NOT lay up for yourselves an earthly treasure. (silver, gold and precious stones, fine fabric, etc.)
Moths and rust corrode; thieves break in and steal. (gold and silver - a steel safe, or a gun case, a gun, and a guard dog as you have suggested in your latest newsletter is directly opposed to your Christian faith and would be also against your Bible Prophecy interpretation if you would not have been influenced by your own bias toward buying and saving silver bullion) 20* Make it your practice INSTEAD to store up heavenly treasure, which neither moths nor rust corrode nor thieves break in and steal. 21* Remember, where your treasure is, there your heart is also. 22* The eye is the body's lamp. If your eyes are good, your body will be filled with light; 23 if your eyes are bad, your body will be in darkness. And if your light is darkness, how deep will the darkness be! 24* No man can serve two masters. He will either hate one and love the other or be attentive to one an despise the other. YOU CANNOT GIVE YOURSELF TO GOD AND MONEY. Jason, you can read the rest of the Chapter for yourself if you will.
Your recommendation to purchase silver bullion is DIRECTLY opposed to your Christian believe system and your encouraging others to do the same is heaping more and more responsibility upon your shoulders subconsciously.
Jason, how do you rationalize this to make it seem right when you know it is against Christ's principle's...?
I agree about God's laws concerning money (gold and silver) and investing in stocks thereof, and other forms of those kinds of investments perhaps even a Mutual Fund devoted to such (do you know of any?) - you might want to mention in your newsletter also; but to actually store up silver treasure needing a gun safe, a gun and gurard dog to protect from "THEIVES" as you recommend....I don't understand...? Could it be your faith has been clouded over by your lust for silver treasure...?
Jason, why NOT purchase silver bullion at E-Bullion.com where one has none of the logistics or safe storage problems and where they guarantee they "already" have the purchased amounts backed by physical gold or silver...?
Your brother in Christ Jesus,
-------------------
My response:
Very, very, very good question. And I do not have time for these kinds of questions these days, but nevertheless...
You note:
Do NOT lay up for yourselves an earthly treasure
I note:
Do not lay up FOR YOURSELVES an earthly treasure
I see that treasure is not wrong when used to further the gospel, and when you use your wealth to further the gospel, you are storing up treasures in heaven. In order to answer a question about what the Bible says, I need to reply with what the Bible says.
1 Timothy 6:17 Charge them that are rich in this world, that they be not highminded, nor trust in uncertain riches, but in the living God, who giveth us richly all things to enjoy;
18 That they do good, that they be rich in good works, ready to distribute, willing to communicate;
19 Laying up in store for themselves a good foundation against the time to come, that they may lay hold on eternal life.
I see it is how you use your treasure that is most important. Perhaps spending your treasure, silver, to promote the gospel when people are not receptive, is not wise. After all, the Bible says to speak to people who will listen, and to shake the dust off your feet if they don't. I think it may be better sometimes to wait until the people are more ready to listen, and when your capital will have more value, both monetarily, and spiritually. In which case, you will have made a wise investment!
In any event, the fraud of the dollar can never be said to be approved by God, even though man prints "in God we Trust" on the abomination of unjust weights and measures.
Others translate "do not lay up for yourselves an earthly treasure where moths and rust corrode and where thieves break in and steal."
There are two instructions here. First, "don't invest in treasure that will rust". Incidentally, gold and silver are such treasures that are not susceptible to corrosion and deterioration! Thus, the passage is an indirect recommendation for gold and silver! It would be bad to store up a more perishable commodity, such as wool or wheat or iron.
The second instruction is to keep it in a safe place, and not where thieves know where it is. So, put it into a safe and in a well-hidden place! It is just common sense that storing your bullion in a location that is known to thieves, where thieves regularly break in and steal, such as banks, is not wise!
In this case, gold and silver can, indeed, be seen as a heavenly treasure. Gold is a reward from heaven for all your hard work and obedience to the laws of God, such as "you reap what you sow". In the Bible, also, gold was used inside and out of the ark of the Covenant and Temple. Gold was a blessing to Abraham, and gold was given to the Israelites by the Egyptians when Israel fled Egypt.
If you flee the abomination of today's monetary system, you, too, can be blessed with gold and silver, and you will get them at prices that are literally, a "steal".
I understand that the phrase, "you cannot serve God and money" means that you must remain debt free. We were "bought with a price," and told to "not to become the slaves of men". A person in debt is a slave to the lender. "The borrower is the slave to the lender".
If you avoid debt, you avoid the perils of the modern financial system, such as overvalued real-estate, and you avoid futures contracts and options that expire.
Gold and silver do not expire, and do not default. Paper promises expire and default. The two are not the same, and those who observe Bible principles will clearly recognize the difference.
The suggestion to use e-bullion to store your physical bullion is an abdication and rejection of your own personal responsibility to protect your own wealth.
A mutual fund is also and abdication and rejection of your responsibility to look after your own investments. Tend your own flocks, the Bible says.
See for more:
Biblical Guidelines for Managing your Money
http://www.bibleprophesy.org/goldismoney/biblemoney.html
The man then responded with the following:
Dear Jason,
You say: Very, very, very good question. And I do not have time for these
kinds of questions these days, but nevertheless...
Response: I do not have time for these kinds of questions....is like
saying, "I do not have time to consider my relationship with You Lord, Jesus
because I am overcome with greed and lust for silver even though I am
rationalizing I will use it to spread Your gospel; nor do I have time to
consider what I am doing storing up silver when I need to be storing up
treasures in heaven."
Protecting the stash to me is just another prideful rationalization. As
humans we can rationalize almost anything, even murder and rape, as
justified.
Question: Jason, if we are storing up treasures in heaven do we need a gun
vault, a gun ("Thou shalt not kill"), and a guard dog to do so...?
Jason, what if you have to kill the thief you "invited" to your house by
stashing your silver there and not only putting yourself in harms way but
your wife and children, if this is the case; or putting your neighbor in
harms way should they pick the wrong house accidently.
Also, ask yourself this question in regard to using gold and silver to
spread the gospel (another rationalization) Question: How did Jesus send
his disciples to spread the gospel? Matthew Chapter 10, especially 10:9-10:
9* "Provide yourselves with neither gold nor silver nor copper in your
belts; 10* no traveling bag, no change of shirt, no sandals, no walking
staff. The workman, after all is worth his keep."
I agree with you 100% on the current financial system - are you familiar
with NESARA...?
Also, thanks for your understanding of "God and money" meaning debt
free.....I never thought of it that way nor was it ever presented to me that
way.......I own my house, my truck and all I have been given as gifts from
the Lord Jesus and would be totally debt free had I not just last month
borrowed $5000 to buy a particular gold/silver/nickel/diamond stock that was
supposed to have some news and move up some....well it moved alright but in
the WRONG direction SO now I am stuck paying the abominable interest
until it finally does move......I was WRONG for doing so, I moved in haste
and in a moment of weakness.
So, you have answered and so have I - perhaps you could put this situation
to all of your subscribers as you did with the young man you referred to in
your last two newsletters to see how it is viewed by other believers.
Take Care. The Peace of Jesus be with you and with all of your family,
friends and neighbors, (Name Removed)
Finally, I responded to that, by intermixing my comments after his with the following:
Hello Tom,
Thursday, April 8, 2004, 8:44:17 PM, you wrote:
TP> Dear Jason,
TP> You say: Very, very, very good question. And I do not have time for these
TP> kinds of questions these days, but nevertheless...
TP> Response: I do not have time for these kinds of questions....is like
TP> saying, "I do not have time to consider my relationship with You Lord, Jesus
TP> because I am overcome with greed and lust for silver eventhough I am
TP> rationalizing I will use it to spread Your gospel; nor do I have time to
TP> consider what I am doing storing up silver when I need to be storing up
TP> treasures in heaven."
Now it is harvest time for silver and silver stocks. There is a
season for all things. Now is silver rush time. I would be a fool to
let ripe fruit rot in the fields, and God would chastise me for doing
so. He does in Proverbs.
TP> Protecting the stash to me is just another prideful rationalization. As
TP> humans we can rationalize almost anything, even murder and rape, as
TP> justified.
TP> Question: Jason, if we are storing up treasures in heaven do we need a gun
TP> vault, a gun ("Thou shalt not kill"), and a guard dog to do so...?
There is no commandment "thou shalt not kill"
The commandment says, "thou shalt not murder".
In fact, there are many commandments that we SHOULD kill people...
kill the adulterer, kill the idolater, kill the murderer, and so on.
Have you not read that the prophets had many men killed? Did you not
know that David killed?
You need to think a bit more about what the Bible says.
TP> Jason, what if you have to kill the thief you "invited" to your house by
TP> stashing your silver there and not only putting yourself in harms way but
TP> your wife and children, if this is the case; or putting your neighbor in
TP> harms way should they pick the wrong house accidently.
You missed also the law that says that we have the right to defend
ourselves with lethal force. The thief that is caught breaking up, if
he is killed, no blood shall be shed for him. It's called
"justifiable homicide" in our code of laws in the US.
I could kill you in an instant if you were trying to take my silver,
and it would be no sin at all in God's eyes. In fact, it would
probably be a greater sin if I let the thief take the silver, for
then, I would not be able to "provide for my family", and a man who
does not provide for his house is worse than a man who has left the
faith, and is an infidel!
God's law gives us the rationalization for private property (not my
pride as you accuse), and God
provides laws and the means to defend it. It is Godless communism
that says we should not be entitled to own property.
TP> Also, ask yourself this question in regard to using gold and silver to
TP> spread the gospel (another rationalization) Question: How did Jesus send
TP> his disciples to spread the gospel? Matthew Chapter 10, especially 10:9-10:
TP> 9* "Provide yourselves with neither gold nor silver nor copper in your
TP> belts; 10* no traveling bag, no change of shirt, no sandals, no walking
TP> staff. The workman, after all is worth his keep."
Yes, I AM worthy of my reward. Did you not know how much wealth it
took to produce one, single Bible in the old days? It took the modern
day equivalent of hiring a skilled laborer, such as a lawyer, 10
months to produce one copy. It's like $300,000.
How much can you spread the gospel if you cannot afford to make even
one Bible? You and your rewards would be rather limited.
How much could you spread the word if you had 5 years able to study
the Bible diligently, because you had saved up enough money to do so?
But oh, so many these days just borrow the money, and attend Satan's
schools.
Could you produce Mel Gibson's movie, the Passion, on nothing? That
took wealth, too.
Oh, but would you argue that in the meantime, wealth should be in the
form of paper money, or that you should borrow?
Ridiculous!
TP> I agree with you 100% on the current financial system - are you familiar
TP> with NESARA...?
never heard of it.
TP> Also, thanks for your understanding of "God and money" meaning debt
TP> free.....I never thought of it that way nor was it ever presented to me that
TP> way.......I own my house, my truck and all I have been given as gifts from
TP> the Lord Jesus and would be totally debt free had I not just last month
TP> borrowed $5000 to buy a particular gold/silver/nickel/diamond stock that was
TP> supposed to have some news and move up some....well it moved alright but in
TP> the WRONG direction SO now I am stuck paying the abominable interest
TP> until it finally does move......I was WRONG for doing so, I moved in haste
TP> and in a moment of weakness.
Yes, that was VERY wrong. both to borrow, and to jump in without
knowledge.
TP> So, you have answered and so have I - perhaps you could put this situation
TP> to all of your subscribers as you did with the young man you referred to in
TP> your last two newsletters to see how it is viewed by other believers.
TP> Take Care. The Peace of Jesus be with you and with all of your family,
TP> friends and neighbors, ^Tom.
Thank you very much for bringing this topic up for discussion. I
know there is a reward in that, too. Seeking the truth has a great
reward behind it, and you will be blessed.
--Jason Hommel
Tom Replied next with a nice forwarded note, and the comment, "The Peace of Jesus be with you"
------------------------
The following is another letter to me:
------------------------
I've written you before and know of your objections
to usury. Nonetheless, the ----- Deposit Company plan
of buying silver and gold with as little a 20% down
has enabled me to acquire around 9000 oz of silver
plus some gold and palladium on an initial payment of
about $24,000. As the price of silver rises, so does
my equity in the metal, and gives me the option of
adding considerably more silver.
A good man to talk to at ----- is ----------. You
can reach him at -----. If you
do talk to him, please mention my name.
I replied:
Not only am I against buying bullion on leverage, I'm against storing it with someone else. You are doing both.
Don't you understand that the ----- guys are likely taking your 20%, and likely using it to buy TWO contracts at 10% leverage each?
How can you REALLY own something by paying only 20% for it? Think about it. It's a scam. All scams end bad, with the scammer scamming the scammee.
Are you scamming them, or are they scamming you?
You think you are scamming them, but I tell you, they are scamming you!
------------------------
Here is another letter
------------------------
Hi Jason
Something just hit me. Why do they let COMEX set the silver price? Other than commodity producers, what industry lets another organization set the prices they are paid for their products? Does Sears set the prices they pay manufacturers using clothing or garden tractor futures? If that last sentence sounds absurd, that's my point.
It gets even more absurd, you have COMEX setting the price of something they don't even have. The Central Fund of Canada is still waiting for a large silver delivery, even so, COMEX still allows more short selling of silver. I think CEF should get an injunction against any more shorting of silver until they get theirs.
In the current situation, I think it is those who actually possess real silver that should be the one's to set the price. What would be the effect of the following advertisement in the Wall Street Journal?
Caught in the Silver Squeeze?
1000 oz. good delivery silver bars
available for immediate delivery
$500.00 per oz.
Wouldn't this set a price at which real silver was available for delivery. If COMEX was to default on physical delivery, couldn't it set the fiat compensation level for those who were denied their physical delivery?
--Barry
---------------------------
I think Barry raises several very, very good points. The first that I really like, I have underlined. I hear that CEF is still waiting for physical delivery of silver. It is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's job to make sure there are no market defaults. The CFTC should be banning all new short positions until and unless they are all covered and unwound. It is healthy for a market to clear out the short positions at least once in a while, especially in light of the reports of shortages, delivery delays, and that the shorts have been short for over 20 years.
His second suggestion, that Longs take out ads in the newspapers to sell silver bullion, is not really needed. Bullion is available for sale at e-bay.com and at bulliondirect.com and many other places. In the end, it will likely be the shorts who will be placing excessive and expensive ads to buy silver bullion to cover their obligations, willing to pay at ever higher prices, and driving up the spot price.
---------------------------
The following commentary appeared at the Daily Reckoning's April 8th email commentary, titled, "The Unintended Consequences Of Globalization", and sub-headed, "The myth of the 'average investor'..."
"The idea that the average person somehow becomes an 'investor' simply by buying a mutual fund or a share of Yahoo is a myth and a fraud. He is not an investor anymore than a man who tries to make money at a slot machine in Las Vegas is a businessman. He may wear a suit and tie. He may carry a brief case. He may even tally up his expenses and net them against his income, but he's really just entertaining himself.
"Warren Buffett is an investor. Carl Icahn is an investor. These are guys who study businesses - in detail - and decide which businesses they want to own.
"The little 'investor' doesn't do that. He merely reads an article in the paper. People are getting older, he discovers. 'Oh,' he says to himself, 'I'll put my money in nursing homes.' But this knowledge - that people are getting older - is the kind of knowledge that Nietszche called 'wissen.' It is public knowledge... abstract, vague, misleading, and for an investor, worse than no knowledge at all. Just because the average age is increasing doesn't mean you're any more likely to make money in a nursing home stock than in a nursery stock. If you buy on the basis of the news, or what your neighbors suggest, or a tip from your broker... you are just gambling.
"In order to invest, you would have to know a lot more; you would have to do actual research, like Buffett does. You have to have what Nietszche called 'erfahrung' - practical, experienced-based, direct, often personal knowledge.
"The average guy who buys a mutual fund is not an investor at all; he's a chump, a patsy, a schmuck. We say that affectionately, of course. Were it not for this guy, most of Wall Street would be out of business. Because what this guy really does is not invest, but consume. He's a consumer of Wall Street products... he's the source of financial firms' revenues and profits. He's the reason people on Wall Street drive around in big Mercedes and have mansions in the Hamptons.
"The trouble is, you can't get rich by giving other people your money. And you can't get rich by spending it, either. The whole U.S. economy only gets bigger by, say, 3% per year on average. So, if you really did 'invest in America,' maybe you could expect your investments to rise at a 3% rate. But if you consume the financial industry's products, you have to realize that the sellers/packagers/brokers/ financiers and so on have to get a cut. And those fellows don't work cheap. Nobody wants to buy 'investment' products from a poor man. So, like Vegas casinos, Wall Street institutions need to spend a lot of money to keep the rubes coming in the door. Warren Buffett once estimated that the financial industry gobbled up nearly a third of all investment gains. Plus, the average lumpeninvestor has to provide higher returns to the 'smart money,' the people who actually know what they are doing. This doesn't leave much for the little guy."
http://www.dailyreckoning.com
My comments: While his commentary seems a bit too extreme on a few points, such as "you can't get rich by giving other people your money," which sounds like you should never buy stocks, it makes many very good points.
I think that commentary is extremely important to note, especially in light of the extreme volatility of many of the silver stocks lately. Many silver stocks are trading at nearly 50-60-70% of their recent highs of the last few months, and this has happened while silver has screamed upwards in price! Yet many of these stocks have tremendous leverage to the silver price, and still stand to make tremendous gains greater than silver bullion itself. I believe this is the result of the relatively illiquid markets for silver stocks. Many investors must be eager to lock in gains that have been tremendous. Many investors must be relatively inexperienced and may not have the ability to do a proper comparative analysis among the many silver stocks that are available.
This is one reason why I have gone to such trouble to create this huge list. You need to have at least a starting point for understanding all that is out there, before you go about making investments. Investing is WORK, and should be treated as such. How many of you have looked at this list, and actually visited each website on it, taking at least 15 minutes to an hour to go over the contents of each, and take your own notes? That's at least 25 to 100 hours just to start... before you put a dime anywhere. At 5 hours a day, that's at least a month of research! And by then, the prices, and number of shares, and drilling results of quite a few of them would have changed! Again, that's why I keep this list--it arose out of me taking my own notes, for me!
Therefore, until and unless you have the time and energy, and desire, to devote to understanding your silver stock investments, many of the smaller traders may be much better off investing in silver bullion first, and bullion only!
For example, if you only have $2000 to spend, the bare minimum to open a brokerage account, what in the world are you doing messing around with stocks? There is no point, for you barely have the time to earn enough money to keep your head above water! A person in that case first needs to earn more, and second needs to spend less, so they can have at least a reasonable amount of savings to start. And savings of money, means investing in silver bullion, because silver is the best money there is right now.
If, after you have money, then you can put a small portion of your unneeded money out for investment. That's after you have about a one month $1000 to $2000 cushion in cash, and perhaps $2000 to $5000 worth of silver bullion. And perhaps this means that a person should have at least $10,000 worth of "extra" silver bullion first, before they even think about touching a silver stock. This may shock many people.
I know that the vast majority of people who own stocks have between $2000 and $10,000 with their brokerage accounts. In fact, that is the size of about 90% of all brokerage accounts. I hope they have more at home, in silver bullion, than with their brokers.
My point is that it is not worth your time to become an expert on silver stocks if you have so little money to spend. Why spend 20-40 hours a week trying to determine where to put $5000? Let's say you make 40% in 3 months, like I did in my marketocracy account from Jan, 2004 to March 2004? You'd make $2000 for your efforts, which is not likely worth your time. If you spent 20 hours a week on that (and I spend more), you'd spend, let's see, 20 x 4 x 3 months is 240 hours. $2000 / 240 is $8 an hour. Sad. A person may make more money by working hard at a second job for six months... Yet if you were in silver bullion during that time, you also could have made even more, as silver rose from $5 to $8, which was a gain of 60%!
I spend all the time that I do, and yet I still try to allocate at least 20% or more of my portfolio to silver bullion, because I know it has the potential to outpace any little unknown silver stock that may have (or may not have) better long term potential.
Silver bullion is where the market is. Silver stocks are just there to help you diversify away from having too much silver bullion around, and to avoid having "all your eggs in one basket".
---------------------------
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---------------------------
Now, once you study the silver stocks, then you can become a trader. A trader of silver stocks is someone who must be very experienced, very knowledgeable, and up on what many companies are doing at once. This is what I try to do. While I trade some stocks, I have other silver stocks I own that require a 2 year hold time, or a 1 year hold time!
When trading, and placing an order, it's like I have to bluff, because I place relatively big orders. I can't just place one big order, for if I did, the market would see it, and the price could run away ahead of me, in front of me, trying to "ride the coattails" of my demand, and I would not get my full order filled, even if I bid 10% over the ask, in some cases! Sometimes, I'll place a small order for $10,000, and that alone will drive the price up 10%. It's horrible!
For example, I have been watching Golden Goliath as the price crashed from 70 cents down to nearly 30 cents, over the last three months. I was getting very tempted to buy it back again, since the open market price was lower than a recently proposed PP price. Yet, on April 8th, before I acted, someone else did, or a few people did. 272,000 shares traded, perhaps a volume of only $85,000. And the price jumped up 27% on April 8th up to .48 Cdn/share! It jumped right on up to the price I recently sold it at, so my opportunity just vanished. This is my problem as a trader, and as a newsletter writer. How can I put $100,000 of my own money into an opportunity like that? I couldn't, not even if I wanted to, and neither could the buyer or buyers who moved the price up!
This is also one reason why many stock trading and recommending systems are frauds. I cannot recommend to my list of 9000 readers to "buy stock X" and then claim that all my readers should have been able to "get in" at the price the stock was on the day I gave the recommendation. It does not work like that! Buyers drive up the price! All I can do is highlight opportunities--again, which is why I highlight both silver bullion and all of the silver stocks! It is up to you to decide to buy or not, based on the price you see on the day you are aware of the opportunity.
So, now, if I know that my readers can drive the volume up to $500,000 to $1,000,000 in one day, then I have to be aware of that, too, and it would have been unreasonable for me to try and say "Golden Goliath at 30 cents is my recommendation", and then claim that all who read my report should have been able to make 27% in one day based on my recommendation. See?
Now, I could get around that problem by only discussing companies with a certain high daily volume, or a minimum market cap or larger, and recommend HL, CDE, PAAS, SSRI and SIL, the largest market cap silver companies on the list. However I cannot recommend a larger company if I think it is truly overvalued. Once again, the only real way around this problem is to list all the companies that I do.
Therefore, if I want to take a big position in the open market in a small silver stock myself, I have to spread my orders out, and place many smaller orders, and in different sizes, and not at regular intervals, perhaps over a week or two, so the traders don't see how much I plan on buying. Furthermore, I also may not even tell my own broker how much I intend to fully buy. And I will never, never, never, of course, disclose who my broker is.
And if I buy a private placement, there's no telling whether or not the liquidity will be there to be able to absorb shares I may want to sell.
Realizing this difficulty of buying an illiquid stock, some traders try an opposite tactic--one I have never done, as I see it as too risky in a bull market. Seeing as how large buy orders can move a price away from them... people may place large sell orders above the market price, to try and drive the market down. In this way, they may be able to buy more at a lower price. Manipulative? Perhaps. But perhaps not. Perhaps a person honestly wants to sell, but they feel the market will surely "come up" to their sell price? But the traders just get scared, and/or run ahead of them, too?
I trade large, and I typically hold for months, at the least. The least is about one month, and that would be rather rare. Other traders trade back and forth, many times in one day. These are the "market makers". They create the bid and ask prices and they create the spread that you see a stock offered for. To me, it's also like they are bluffing. After all, are their prices really the price? And if so, why can't I get all I want at that price? See, those are not the real prices, those are only the prices for the small amounts on offer. If you want more, the price goes up, sometimes way up, as I have found out.
These are all lessons that translate directly to the silver bullion market. How much silver is really for sale at current prices? Probably very, very little. Current prices are, therefore, not the true price. The price will be driven way, way up when people realize their dollars are fraud, and when several trillion dollars tries to buy silver bullion. That is the real situation that will soon hit.
So, think about what goes on with futures contracts. Since so few of them are ever settled in physical delivery, perhaps only one percent. So, then, those contracts are like bluffing. I believe the short selling of futures contracts by the commercials are the bluff to deliver silver at low prices. Designed, perhaps, to drive the price down, for whatever reason. Perhaps to drive away investment demand? Perhaps to stave off their own silver bankruptcy? Perhaps so they can acquire more physical themselves at lower prices? The strongest reason is to keep the dollar strong. If they do it to keep the dollar strong, it's like engaging in a tiny fraud in the silver market to keep the mammoth fraud of the dollar alive. It certainly makes sense from their perspective. But people can't see it because they know so little about how markets work.
Once again, this proves why you need physical silver bullion above all else. It is the greatest trade in the world to get physical at these low prices. The rapidly rising price of physical bullion shows that the market price for bullion is not very deep. The little available keeps getting bought up, and the price has only one way to go, way up. The silver on offer at the "ask" price, is very limited, and very scarce.
Therefore, you can see also that producing this weekly report is extremely difficult for me. If I add a new stock to the list that I have not yet taken a position in that I want to, I have to be very careful that I have a full position, otherwise, it tends to take off on me, simply because I add it to this list! It's horrible for me. Yet, I do get some benefits, of course, as producing this report has made me a central location to go to for information, and I have learned a tremendous amount.
---------------------------
Here are a few different investment strategies. I'm not recommending any of these, just throwing them out there as "creative" ideas you may not have thought of before.
1. Assume each company on this list of 100 is a good one run by good people, and put an equal number of dollars into each of the 100 silver stocks on this list, and hope for the best, and do nothing for a year. If you did that in Jan 2003, you would have made 314%... but, of course, back then, this list did not exist!
2. Do the same as number one, and put an equal dollar number into each silver stock on this list, and then re-distribute your gains to the laggards.. So, take profits when they go up, and spread out the profits among those that drop.
3. Do the same as number two, except narrow down the list a bit.
A. Narrow down the list by buying only the stocks I own--assuming I know what I'm doing.
B. Narrow down the list by buying only the stocks I don't own--assuming I've pushed up the price by buying, and as others have bought.
C. Narrow down the list by using your good judgement--say, by buying the "cheap" stocks. For example, cut the top list in half, and only buy the bottom half, that all compare favorably on the valuation scale. And, for example, buy buying stocks on the second list if they have market caps under $30 million.
D. Or, use a combination of A and C, or B and C.
E. Buy only the 5 "cheapest" silver stocks on each list. Five that compare favorably, and five of those with the smallest market caps.
F. Buy the "look at my portfolio", and buy all the stocks I own.
G. Buy the "look at my portfolio", and only buy the stocks I own most of--assuming I know what I'm doing, and that I've made very wise choices about where to put my money.
H. Buy the "look at my portfolio", and only buy the stocks I own little of--assuming that I know what I'm doing, and that the little stocks are "more speculative" and may have greater upside potential.
4. Find a silver stock with a wide spread, and consider becoming a market maker in that penny silver stock yourself by placing the bid and ask prices that are closer than another person's, and let the market buy from you, and sell to you, when the market decides, and raise and lower your prices together, as your pool either fills with dollars or fills with stock... (and as you make money on the spread that you have created!)
5. Create your own strategy or combinations of strategies.
One last recommendation. Never put more than 10-25% of your net worth into any one single silver stock. You don't need to take that risk. Diversify among the many available to choose from.
-----------------
Here's something I should boast about. My fantasy portfolio or fund at Marketocracy.com. I made it into the top 100 for the first quarter of 2004. My ranking is #33, out of about 50,000 to 60,000 investors who have signed up. You can see that if you go to marketocracy.com, then rankings, then top rankings, then last 3 months. Then click 21-40. Or click the link here: http://tinyurl.com/ysh7s
Here is my portfolio allocation as of April 8th. There are several things that pleased me from this experiment. First, that the two stocks I picked to put most of the money into, MGN and MMGG, were up by the greatest percentage for the quarter (each over 50%). Second, since my personal portfolio was not limited to the stocks that Marketocracy limits you to (no pinksheets and no Canadian), my personal portfolio outperformed the marketocracy one, again showing I know my stuff. Third, this portfolio was maintained rather easily. No "in out" jumping, no crazy movements. Just a steady long-term buy and hold strategy, with only a bit of re-diversification to maintain "portfolio compliance" as necessary as my top picks moved up beyond 25% of the portfolio, or as a few of the others moved above 5%. Regarding all of the stocks just under 5%: What I do there for "compliance" is I have to keep 50% of the portfolio in stocks under 5%. So, whenever a stock moves above 5%, I sell it to bring it back to 4.6%. Whenever another stock dips below 4.3%, I add to it to bring it back to 4.6%. Thus, even though I own $60,000 of GPXM, it shows a loss, because I have been adding to the position, to bring it up to $60g. And for PAAS, it shows a gain of 35%, but it remains at only about $65,000 because I have been selling from the position.
The return for this fantasy portfolio during the first quarter was 26.26% for the quarter. The return for this fantasy portfolio since I started, in mid December 2003, until April 8th, 2004, was 40% so far.
| DIVERSIFICATION | | Symbol | Price | Shares | Value | Current Return | Portion of Fund | | |
|---|
| MGN | $8.55 | 36,492 | $312,006.60 | 50.01% | 22.21% | Details | First 50% | | MMGG | $2.90 | 86,044 | $249,527.60 | 59.22% | 17.76% | Details | | VGZ | $5.44 | 12,240 | $66,585.60 | 15.07% | 4.74% | Details | | CEF | $6.24 | 10,600 | $66,144.00 | 15.59% | 4.71% | Details | | PAAS | $18.53 | 3,500 | $64,855.00 | 35.02% | 4.62% | Details | Second 50% | | HL | $8.23 | 7,800 | $64,194.00 | 8.67% | 4.57% | Details | | WHT | $3.22 | 19,900 | $64,078.00 | 17.54% | 4.56% | Details | | MFN | $10.00 | 6,400 | $64,000.00 | 20.19% | 4.56% | Details | | SSRI | $16.45 | 3,800 | $62,510.00 | 22.13% | 4.45% | Details | | WTZ | $8.36 | 7,460 | $62,365.60 | 28.03% | 4.44% | Details | | GSS | $6.75 | 9,200 | $62,100.00 | 3.27% | 4.42% | Details | | GPXM | $0.34 | 179,140 | $60,907.60 | -20.29% | 4.34% | Details | | CDE | $6.71 | 9,000 | $60,390.00 | 28.45% | 4.30% | Details | | SIL | $21.08 | 2,800 | $59,024.00 | 18.24% | 4.20% | Details | | NJMC | $0.73 | 73,827 | $53,893.71 | -3.51% | 3.84% | Details |
|
|
| | | | |
---------------------------
Many people from New Zealand or Australia write to me asking for a review of the Australian Silver Stocks. Usually, I send them on to some of Locantro's work. See Locantro's latest article that came out this week below:
AUSTRALIAN SPEC MARKET REVIEW
http://news.goldseek.com/TonyLocantro/1081104852.php
At the end of Locantro's article, there is a link, Also by Tony Locantro
At that "Locantro Index", there are plenty of articles on Australin Silver exploration stocks.
I'm not endorsing Locantro's work. I'm just admitting that he's the place to start, because he knows more than I do about the Aussie stocks, and he's got a longer list of them than I do.
---------------------------
Last week's "survey", I asked readers to send me their silver stock tips, and I put them into a page here: GoldIsMoney.com (/reports/tips.php)
--------------------------
Now, regarding my "look at my portfolio" that I offer. I have tried my hardest to provide the price at a reasonable cost, "for the little guy", by offering just a "one month" look. That way, more people can afford it than if I only had an annual option. I also provide this weekly report that you are reading now, for free.
If you are, at all, biting your fingernails about the price of the "look at my portfolio", this is NOT for you. If it is troubling to pay the price, you probably do not have anywhere near enough money, or time, to be devoting to silver stocks at all, and should probably have all your money in silver bullion. I honestly wonder whether people who have less than $10,000 to invest (in addition to their $10,000 of silver bullion holdings), or perhaps significantly more, (and this includes home equity) would benefit by buying the look at my portfolio. I tend to think people should have more than that to invest before buying, but I just don't know. It's your decision, though, not mine.
Because I have a market reach, I also receive a lot of tips about silver stocks. And thus, I believe I may have invested in some of the best ones that came my way. If you believe I may have an edge based on my work and position... then the best way for me to share this with you is to is tell you where I put my money. It's not investment advice. I offer a monthly "look at my portfolio". Try it for a month, and see if it works for you. I do not issue recommendations, and I don't list number of shares or the size of my portfolio, but I will show the top investments in my portfolio, by rank, updated monthly.
I just raised prices recently to the following:
Price: $39.95/monthly, or $49.95 for a single month, or $295.00/year
To order: Click here
If you have any questions about billing or order fulfillment, you need to contact my support staff at support@goldismoney.com and not me. I manage a large portfolio, and I don't have time to process billing requests. I don't bill any cards, my support staff handles all of that. We finally got a toll free telephone customer support line. 877-895-6824.
------------------------
General Commentary on Silver (slightly modified from last week):
See my article: Biblical Guidelines for Managing your Money
As the New York Times, January 11, 1859, page 2 said---
"It is well known that the most colossal fortunes the world ever saw have been based on silver mines..."
--quote found by Charles Savoie
----------------------------
For news on the New Hampshire Sound Money Bill, that proposes to use U.S. Treasury minted Silver Eagles and Gold Eagles as money see:
http://www.nh-inews.org/
http://veritasradio.com/
Current status of the NH bill:
The bill will live until the November elections. It'll have a different #,
but we now have 6 months or so to get EVERYONE we need on board.
Thanks to you for your efforts. Now, the fund raising part begins
so we can take it to the other states ! More on that later.
For now - V I C T O R Y is in sight !
----------------------------
WHERE and HOW to BUY SILVER BULLION
GoldIsMoney.com (/buy-gold.php)
My 2004-2009 price predictions for gold and silver:
2004: $595/oz. gold, 50:1 ratio = $12/oz. silver
2005: $1011/oz. gold, 30:1 ratio = $34/oz. silver
2006: $1719/oz. gold, 10:1 ratio = $172/oz. silver
2007: $2923/oz. gold, 5:1 ratio = $ 585/oz. silver
2008: $4,969/oz. gold, 1:1 ratio = $4969/oz. silver
2009: $8448/oz. gold, 5:1 ratio = $1698/oz. silver
2010+: infinity dollars/oz. gold, infinity dollars/oz. silver.
I calculate the gold price rise by guessing that by 2009, M3 will have a "gold-value" like it did in 1980, which is to say, M3 was worth 2 Billion oz. of gold or less. It also assumes M3 will about triple in that time. These figures are conservative, because I see no reason that M3 should be valued more than the gold the U.S. actually holds, which is a mere 261 million oz., not billion. Today, the M3 value is $8870 billion / $425/oz. = 19 billion oz. of gold M3 could buy in theory. The silver:gold ratio is also a very, very vague guess, reflective of monetary demand chasing silver, which is more scarce than gold in above ground, refined form. I have no idea when the ratio of 15:1 will be exceeded, I'm just totally guessing. I suppose it could happen this year or next month for all I know. Of course my real price targets are infinity dollars per oz. for both gold and silver when all is said and done, I just don't know how long that will take, nor what year it will be. But my point in producing the price predictions is to show my bullishness for silver and gold.
----------------------------
Let me say how important it is for silver stock investors to own physical silver. There is $422 million dollars worth of silver in the registered category available for delivery at the COMEX (52 mil oz. at $8.12). The 59 silver stocks on my list, for which I have information available to calculate market caps, add up to $7090 million as of Dec. 5th, 2003. If silver stock investors move 5% of their silver stock holding to physical silver in the next few weeks, that would be $350 million dollars worth of physical silver, and thus, the silver price would probably hit $10-20/oz. within a few days. And if silver stock investors try to move 20% into physical silver, the silver demand will end the COMEX manipulation tomorrow. We don't need anyone other than ourselves to make "the big breakout" happen at this point.
----------------------------
I wrote an article predicting that Silver Companies will buy silver, and urging Silver Companies to buy silver with their cash, to use silver as money, and sell silver as needed for expenses. See http://news.goldseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1069879327.php
That article is now having an effect! It is being discussed by several large "cash rich" silver companies, who are seriously considering the idea of holding their cash in the form of silver.
----------------------------
A great overview on silver: Douglas Kanarowski's 78 Approaching Forces For Higher Silver Prices
See also Douglas Kanarowski's article: What Impact Will Digital Photography Have on Silver?
----------------------------
See the 600 year silver chart to see how undervalued silver really is:
http://goldinfo.net/silver600.html
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Look at the summary of the world silver survey by GFMS Limited on behalf of The Silver Institute :
http://www.gfms.co.uk/Publications%20Samples/WSS03-summary.pdf
Note, there is virtually no monetary demand. Note, the 2002 mine production (585 mil oz.) is greatly exceeded by industrial, photo, and jewelry demand. (838 mil oz.). Note the chart on page five, "Supply from above-ground stocks".
The difference between mine supply and industrial demand was met by a combination of three factors: 1. Government selling, 2. Private selling, 3. Recycling
U.S. government selling is ending, as their stocks have run out, or will run out. This factor will reverse, because the U.S. government will need silver to continue their coin program, and/or need silver when they wake up and decide they need to replenish their strategic stockpile for domestic security. Silver is a war material. China's selling of silver will also likely turn into buying, as China will need silver for continued industrial development, or when they also lose faith in the U.S. dollar.
Private selling has been rapidly shrinking and is now almost ended, and should turn into buying, and become monetary demand. Monetary demand is everything in the silver supply / demand situation. It's not now. Now, it's nothing. But it will become something incredible, because the dollar is dying.
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The following is a "must read": Ted Butler's best ever explanation of how silver is manipulated lower than it should be.
http://www.investmentrarities.com/11-04-03.html
Sign the silver petition to stop the manipulation at the COMEX:
http://www.PetitionOnline.com/comex/
Ted correctly points out that a lower price creates excessive demand from consumers. However, Ted Butler does not point out, and neglects to mention, that a perpetually low price also creates lack of demand from investors who are "trend investors".
I think most silver experts over-analyze all the supply and demand factors of the silver market. No factor is more important than monetary demand. The force of photographic demand is like a light breeze compared to the hurricane or tornado of monetary demand. Monetary demand is everything.
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Consider the gold market for a moment: Even short selling at the COMEX is nothing compared to monetary demand. The short position most certainly helps to depress the price of gold as the short position is growing larger. However, it adds fuel to the fire if there is short covering, and thus, it can boost the gold price later. But the commercial short position on the COMEX is next to nothing compared to the non-reported "over the counter" trading that is done that does not appear on the COMEX.
(Numbers in metric tonnes, 32,152 oz. per tonne.)
870 tonnes -- the paper position at the COMEX, 280,000 contracts for 100 oz. each.
5,000 tonnes -- the official number admitted that the central banks have sold.
15,000 tonnes -- the number GATA research shows that central banks have sold / or leased.
30,000 tonnes -- the number of official central bank gold, minus either the 5000 or 15,000 tonnes.
145,000 tonnes -- all the gold mined in the history of the world.
2,600 tonnes -- annual mine supply
4,000 tonnes -- annual demand
And all of that is nothing compared to the amount of dollars out there that exist that could buy gold. $20 trillion bonds, $9 trillion M3 = $29 Trillion. A mere 1% is $290 Billion, which, at $500 /oz. is a massive demand of 18,039 tonnes. Do you understand what that means? That means that far, far less than 1% of dollars, in either bonds or M3 can buy gold, because there simply is not that much gold available.
Long before 1% of U.S. paper dollars tries to buy gold, gold will be going up well over $1000/oz., and silver will be headed up over $50/oz.
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To scare away investors--that is the entire reason gold and silver are manipulated in the first place. Only the trend investors can be deceived. The problem is that nearly everyone is a trend investor. So few investors understand value. If people knew the facts and used their brains, the available above-ground refined silver would be gone by tomorrow, and the price would be well over $20-50/oz. But don't trust me, follow the urls and check the numbers:
1,000,000,000,000: 1 Trillion dollars
1,000,000,000: 1 Billion dollars
1,000,000: 1 Million dollars
$33,000,000,000,000: World bond market yr end, '01: http://tinyurl.com/vr7u $20,200,000,000,000: U.S. bond market, yr end, '02: http://tinyurl.com/vr7g $11,700,000,000,000: U.S. stock market, yr end, '02: http://tinyurl.com/vr7g $11,038,000,000,000: U.S. annual GDP, 3rd q.'03 est.&n |
