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-- Posted 6 June, 2004 | | Source: SilverSeek.com
SUNDAY, June 6th, 2004
I'm producing this report on Sunday, because I attended the NY Gold show this week, and was on a plane on Friday eve.
This week's report lists 113 silver stocks. There are 31 silver stocks that list reserves, resources (and exploration potential.) which I calculate by using my "ounce in the ground" forumula. There are 52 explorers. There are about 30 additional "silver" stocks with incomplete information. Additions & Changes from last week are in bold.
If this is the first time you have seen this report, please try to read the entire report before sending me an email. This report goes out now to over 8900 investors each week in email. You can signup, or unsubscribe, to this report at http://www.goldismoney.com/subscription-ss.php
If you are an Accredited or Sophisticated investor and want information I may find out about private placement opportunities in some of the very best silver stocks in my opinion, (This is not a solicitation for any stock, and I'm not brokering any securities) you can sign up to receive such a notice by adding yourself to my private placement list at http://www.goldismoney.com/subscription-pp.php
Because I have a market reach, I also receive a lot of tips about silver stocks. And thus, I believe I may have invested in some of the best ones that came my way. If you believe I may have an edge based on my work and position... then the best way for me to share this with you is to is tell you where I put my money. It's not investment advice. I offer a monthly "look at my portfolio". I do not issue recommendations, and I don't list number of shares or the size of my portfolio, but I will show the top investments in my portfolio, by rank, updated monthly.
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To read about my religious bias, see my other website, bibleprophesy.org There are two essays near the top of the page that explain why I believe the entire world will return to using gold and silver as money again before the end times. Hint, see Ezekiel 38. To read more about my religious bias when it comes to investing, see my essay, Biblical Guidelines for Managing your Money
Kitco reports silver at $5.78/oz. as of Friday, 5:30 PM West Coast US, which was used to calculate the following figures. The CAN $ / US $ conversion factor is .7365. I will use .74 for ease.
How to read the following table:
Stock Symbol that works at Yahoo! Finance (Company name) / Silver oz. "in ground" for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock. / valuation price change since last week relative to silver price change (and stock dilution, and resource changes, if any) / additional comments (EXPT is "exploration potential")
- ABX (BARRICK) 0.91 up --infamous hedger (18 mil oz. gold hedged, 3 yrs production) hedged?
- CDE (COEUR D'ALENE) 1.1 up --(also gold) in debt, produces at a loss.
- IPOAF.PK (INDUSTL PENOLES) 1.7 down --current producer, mostly family owned, hedged?
- SIL (APEX SILVER) 3.1 up --zinc bonus, low grades, cash rich--$345 million! in debt
- GRS GAM.TO (GAMMON LAKE) 3.1 up --current producer, owns 26% of Mexgold
- FSR.TO FSLVF.PK (FIRST SILVER) 4.5 down --current producer, (not profitable '03 3rd q.) unhedged
- CFTN.PK (CLIFTON MINING) 5.3 down -- (125 EXPT) (colloidal silver patent bonus)
- PAAS (PAN AMERICAN SILVER) 4.6 up --current producer debt free
- MFN MFL.TO (MINEFINDERS) 4.7 even --significant gold bonus, $35 mil cash on hand.
- KBR.V KBRRF.PK (KIMBER RSCS) 5.5 down One property, high grades, with exploration potential.
- WTZ WTC.TO (WESTERN SILVER) 5.9 down -- (21 EXPT) large mine development cost. copper & zinc bonus
- MGR.V MGRSF.PK (MEXGOLD RSCS) 6.9## down (##exploration target) -- bonanza grade discovery on Jan 13th
- * TM.V TUMIF.OB (TUMI RSCS) 7.4 up -- (15 EXPT) recent bonanza grade silver discovery
- SSRI SSO.V (SILVER STD RSC) 7.8 up --multi-property company, understands silver story
- ORM.V OREXF.PK (OREMEX RES) 8.7 down (36 EXPT)
- CZN.TO CZICF.PK (CDN ZINC) 9.0 up --large zinc bonus, high grades, low start up costs, great EXPT
- SRLM.PK (STERLING MINING) 11.5 down --(27 EXPT) acquired the Sunshine in Cour d'Alene
- IMR.V IMXPF.OB (IMA EXPL) 13.6 up (54 EXPT) --Explorer in Argentina
- FAN.TO FRLLF.PK (FARALLON RSCS) 13.7 way up --(23 EXPT) low grades, silver 1/3; also gold & zinc bonus.
- GGC.V GGCRF.PK (GENCO RESOURCES) 14.9 up --current producer in Mex. Plans for expansion and acquision
- RDV.TO RDFVF.PK (REDCORP VENTURE) 15.8 down --60% gold bonus
- CHD.V CHDSF.PK (CHARIOT RSCS) 17.2 down (explorer, with inferred resources)
- ADB.V ADBRF.PK (ADMIRAL BAY RSCS) 19.4 up --actively expanding resources. (Huge gas bonus)
- * PLE.V (PLEXMAR RES INC) 23.6 up
- * SVL.V STVZF.PK (SILVRCRST MINES) 24.4 up --(41+ EXPT) --(Silver in Honduras) +
- ASM.V ASGMF.PK (AVINO SILV GOLD) 26.2 up --owns 49% of the Avino +4 other silver props. (silver bonus)
- HDA.V (HUSIF?) (HULDRA SILVER) 28.3 way down --very tiny, zinc bonus, low start up costs.
- * MGN (MINES MGMT) 28.2 down --60% copper bonus (low grades), start up cost ~ $250 mil
- EXR.V EXPTF.PK (EXPATRIATE RECS) 28.1 down --significant zinc bonus 60% zinc, 25% silver (got out Atna)
- ABI.V ABMBF.PK (ABCOURT MINES) 38 down --large zinc & small gold bonus
- UNCN.OB (UNICO INC) 61 down --lease expiring on largest property, June 1 2004?????
* = I own shares
Explorers (by market cap, in millions):
- HL (HECLA MINING CO) .33 down --A PRODUCER (gold bonus) cash rich.
- SPM.V SMNPF.PK (SCORPIO MINING)
- EZM.V EZMCF.PK (EUROZINC MINING)
- CDU.V CUEAF.PK (CARDERO RSCS)
- AOT.V ASOLF.PK (ASCOT RSCS) -- owns percentage of Cardero, CDU.V
- * OTMN.PK (O.T. MINING) very large exploration potential
- MCAJF.PK (MACMIN LTD)
- * FCO.TO FCACF.PK (FORMATION CAPTL) Cobolt (and Sunshine silver refinery)
- * MMGG.OB (METALLINE MINE) --zinc/silver (historic high grade silver) (low cost revolutionary oxide zinc process)
- TVI.TO TVIPF.PK (TVI PACIFIC) --current producer of a dore silver bar 96% silver, 4% gold
- * FR.V FMJRF.PK (FIRST MAJESTIC) -- Bought a former silver producer. Acquiring silver properties.
- * NPG.V NVPGF.PK (NEVADA PAC GOLD) 38-186 "exploration potential" (owns 1 silver property, 10 gold properties)
- MAG.V MSLRF.PK (MAG SILVER)
- IAU.V ITDXF.PK (INTREPID MINRLS) 7 "exploration potential"
- ECU.V ECUXF.PK (ECU SILVER MINI) 4.1 down --(11 EXPT) --50% gold bonus
- CAUCF.PK (CALEDON RES)
- MMM.TO MMAXF.PK (MINCO MINING)
- MAI.V MNEAF.OB (MINERA ANDES) (gold bonus)
- * EDR.V EDRGF.PK (ENDEAVOUR GOLD) A PRODUCER (I could not yet find a listing of resources or reserves)
- PXI.V PNXPF.PK (Planet Exploration Inc.)
- * CBE.V CBEFF.PK (CABO MINING) --Historic Silver and Cobalt district
- QTA.V QURAF.PK (QUATERRA RES)
- BZA.V ABZGF.PK (AMER BONANZA)
- DNI.V DMNKF.PK (DUMONT NICKEL) exploring Clifton's property
- EXN.V EXLLF.PK (EXCELLON RSCS)
- BCM.V BCEKF.PK (BEAR CRK MINING)
- NJMC.OB (NEW JERSEY MIN)
- * CMA.V CRMXF.OB (CREAM MINERALS) 240 "exploration potential"
- * KG.V KDKGF.PK (KLONDIKE GOLD)
- SML.V SMLZF.PK (STEALTH MNRLS)
- (NEW BULLET GP) Amerix Precious Metals Corp (APM.V) 42 - 117 "exploration potential"
- SDR.V SDURF.PK (STROUD RSCS)
- CHMN.PK (CHESTER MINING)
- EPZ.V ESPZF.PK (ESPERANZA SILVR)
- GNG.V GGTHF.PK (GOLDEN GOLIATH) --Historic silver district in Mexico
- GPR.V GPRLF.PK (GREAT PANTHER)
- MMG.V MMEEF.PK (MCMILLAN GOLD)
- SHSH.PK (SHOSHONE SILVER)
- * KRE.V KREKF.PK (KENRICH ESKAY)
- EGD.V EGDMF.PK (ENERGOLD MINING)
- PCM.V PAOCF.PK (PAC COMOX RES)
- LEG.V LEGCF.PK (LATEEGRA RSCS)
- BGS.V BLDGF.PK (BALLAD GLD SLVR)
- * AUN.V AUNFF.PK (AURCANA CORP)
- SRY.V (STINGRAY RSCS)
- TUO.V TEUTF.PK (TEUTON RES)
- ASLM.PK (AMER SILVER MINI)
- BBR.V BBRRF.PK (BRETT RES)
- ROK.V ROCAF.PK (ROCA MINES INC)
- MTB.V (Mountain Boy Minerals Ltd)
- LSM.V LASCF.PK (Langis Silver & Cobalt Mining Co Ltd)
- CBP.V CPBMF.PK (CONS PAC BAY MIN)
* = I own shares
Silver oz. "in ground" means and counts all "silver oz. in the ground" as the same, but they are NOT EQUAL. Some are more certain and others are more speculative. Some are higher grades, some are lower grades. They range from most certain to least certain such as: "proven & probable reserves," "measured, indicated, inferred resources." This single number next to each stock symbol above represents the approximate number of ounces of silver in the ground you are buying title to when you invest the equivalent of one ounce of silver into buying shares in the company at current prices. Here's the math on how to get it. 1. Get a market cap in U.S. dollars. Divide that by the silver price, so the market cap is denominated in terms of silver ounces. Then, divide the ounces in the ground by the market cap as denominated in silver. This tells you how many ounces of silver in the ground you are buying when you give up one ounce of silver in you hand for shares of stock, instead.
(It does not include zinc, or copper, or lead, but it does include gold at a 1:10 ratio of gold:silver.) At goldsheetlinks.com, they add 100% of proven & probable reserves, but only 70% of measured & indicated resources, and only 50% of inferred resources. I don't do that. I count them as all the same.
I believe that the two most important numbers that a silver mining company can report are the resources in the ground, and the number of their fully diluted shares. Of course, there is much more to a mining company than that, but without those numbers, it is extremely difficult to even start an evaluation. This report highlights those key numbers, where possible. If you think those numbers are also important, please email the executives of the mining companies you own, and ask them to make sure their numbers are clearly published at their websites.
To quickly "tab" down to the company you are interested in, note the symbol. Then hit "control-F" to "FIND" the symbol below.
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If I use a word you don't understand and is not listed in the dictionary at www.m-w.com you can look up the meaning at http://investorwords.com/
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WEEKLY COMMENTARY (All new in this section):
I will be speaking in Vancouver on June 13-14, 2004
World Gold, PGM & Diamond Investment Conference,
http://www.goldshow.ca/
I will be speaking at 10:30 - 11:00 AM on June 13th in workshop #2 (a smaller area than the main speaker hall).
I will be speaking at 3:00 - 3:30 PM on June 14th in workshop #4 in a panel discussion on silver.
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I just returned from the NY gold show on June 2 -3. There are several companies that are increasingly deciding to hold their cash in the form of silver bullion. These companies are:
SSRI SSO.V (SILVER STANDARD RSC)
SRLM.PK (STERLING MINING)
NPG.V NVPGF.PK (NEVADA PACIFIC GOLD)
EDR.V EDRGF.PK (ENDEAVOUR GOLD)
One of the things that surprised me was how little other silver companies know what the others are doing. Very few other silver mining executives knew that Silver Standard (SSRI) recently bought silver bullion a month and a half ago, as a place to invest 20% of their cash until they need it. Excerpt from SSRI press release.
As of May 12: The company has budgeted $8.2 million in 2004 for feasibility and scoping studies and exploration of its 15 projects. With cash of $61 million, and marketable securities of approximately $10 million at March 31, the company decided to invest approximately 20% of its cash and securities in physical silver following the decline in silver prices in April and May. Silver Standard now owns over 1.95 million ounces of silver. This silver is held on an allocated and segregated basis and, consequently, is not available to be loaned.
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On my trip to the NY gold show, at an airport, I bought the latest issue of National Geographic, titled, "The end of Cheap Oil". In that issue, there were at least two ads for gold, one said gold could hit $1500/oz.!
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New York City and Wall Street are scared of terrorism. On June 1, I flew to JFK, and took a taxi to Times Square. After checking in at the conference hotel, I had to walk around to see the city for the first time. On nearly every corner in Times Square, there was an emergency vehicle, either an ambulance, fire truck, or police car. It's like they were waiting for a disaster to strike. That night, I took a taxi down to see Wall Street. I wanted to see the buildings, and see the big brass bull outside Wall Street. Wall Street remains closed to all car traffic at all times of the day. Wall Street is deathly scared of terrorism.
They should be more worried about silver--the shortage of which, and the ongoing deficit in silver, will reveal the fraud of the dollar, and will bankrupt many of America's largest institutions.
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Silver bullion inventories, in the registered category available for delivery, at the COMEX, continue to shrink. For a long time, they were 53 million ounces. Today it's down to 46,879,136 million ounces. See http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/sil_fut_wareho.jsp
But how much silver exists in the world? It's a very difficult question to answer. The two industry silver reports estimate the number as ranging between about 300 million ounces and 600 million ounces. I suppose we can also estimate what may be left based on historical gold production, and then extrapolate that to historical silver production, based on a simple production ratio.
Today, the two big industry silver reports (CPM group and silverinstitute) say that about 500 million ounces of silver is mined each year, and about 2500 tonnes of gold is mined each year. Translating the silver ounces to metric tonnes, by dividing by 32152 oz./tonne, and we get 15500 tonnes of silver produced each year. That's 6.22 times as much silver produced as gold. I think that's very low compared to historical production standards, but it makes sense since I believe silver is undervalued compared to gold. If silver is undervalued, it's more difficult to mine at a profit as compared to gold. I believe historic production of silver as compared to gold has ranged in the 10:1 to 15:1 ratio of silver to gold. Now, the World Gold Council's position is that 145,000 tonnes of gold have been produced in all of human history, as I report each week:
$1,860,000,000,000: World "official" gold, 145,000 T @ $400/oz. http://tinyurl.com/vrcc
Now, that number may be debatable, given certain claims about the size of Asian gold as reported in the book, "Gold Warriors".
Nevertheless, I suppose we may assume that silver production has been 7.5 to 10 times this gold production. At ten times as much, we have 1,450,000 tonnes of silver. Translated, by multiplying by 32152 oz/tonne, we have 46.6 billion ounces of silver. At 6 times as much, we'd have 870,000 tonnes of silver, or 28 billion ounces. I have seen, but don't remember the source, estimates of world historic silver production range from 30 to 40 billion ounces, and those numbers appear to be correct based on estimated extrapolations I've just done.
The modern world today consumes 800 million ounces of silver per year. 30 billion ounces of silver, divided by 800 million ounces consumed each year, is 37.5 years. Good thing the world did not consume that much silver 37 years ago!!! The major increased use of silver started after World War II, when the U.S. increased its silver consumption many fold, as I reported last week, when I wrote:
The next item in the charts that I find very interesting is U.S. "apparent consumption". Our consumption of silver is significantly higher in the modern age than in the early 1900's. Before 1939, the U.S. never consumed over 1000 tonnes, yet today, we consume from 5000 to 6000 tonnes per year. Consumption really took off during World War II, as by 1942, the U.S. consumed over 3000 tonnes per year, never to dip again below that number.
So, even today, the U.S. barely uses twice the amount of silver the nation used in the post WWII years.
But the population in the U.S. in 1945 was also about half that in 2004.
http://www.census.gov/population/estimates/nation/popclockest.txt
The U.S. had 140 million people in 1945, and over 285 million by 2004 (if you assume growth rates continued the same after 1999).
The point is that silver consumption, per capita, in the U.S. is the same today, in 2004, as it was in 1945.
And what is the per capita consumption of silver in the U.S. today? 5500 tonnes x 32152 = 177 million ounces of silver used per 285 million people. 177 / 285 = .62 oz. silver consumed per year, per person, in the U.S., whether in 1945, or in 2004. Each person in the U.S. today, on average, uses 6 tenths of an ounce of silver.
If the U.S. used .62 ounces of silver, per person, since 1945, then a simple spread sheet calculation based on estimates shows that the U.S. alone has consumed over 7.6 billion ounces of silver from 1945 to 2004!
That is about 25% of historic world production of 30 billion ounces!!! Today, the U.S. also consumes 25% of current production, each year! The rest of the world that consumes 75% of the silver each year has also likely come very close to consuming the other 75% of historic production! Thus, the world is likely very close to running out of all the silver that has been mined in history, and we don't likely have a multi- billion ounce existing supply of silver in the world.
And thus, I trust the research from various sources that say we are down to the last 300 to 600 million ounces of silver in "identifiable" inventories. Unidentifiable inventories, such as hidden stashes of silver by the public, like 90% bullion U.S. coins, are not likely much bigger.
When I say silver has been "consumed" I mean if it has been turned into a ring, it's "consumed", and not coming to market anytime soon. I have a $10 ring that may have 1/5th of an ounce of silver. Thus, I paid the equivalent of $50/oz. for the silver. Buyers of silver items like that do not have any profit incentive to sell unless silver prices are sky high, and/or economic times are very, very harsh.
And how much silver is there in the entire world, per person? 30 billion ounces / 6.5 billion people = 4.6 ounces.
Buy a few ounces, and get "more than your fair share" today!!!
One point to be extrapolated from this, I feel, is that new modern uses for silver are not going to significantly change the per capita consumption rates. Thus, the focus of many silver reports on new uses for silver are focusing on the wrong thing, and they are attempting to forecast trends for the future that have never existed.
In contrast, I focus on monetary demand. This is a demand in the past that has existed, and will likely exist again. Because history has shown that paper money will not last, and that the world will return to using gold and silver as money.
The other main point is that the modern world, first world nations, consume enormous amounts of silver, per person, as compared to the underdeveloped world. As China continues it's march forward economically, their per capita consumption of silver is going to be explosive! That is where real increased demand for silver will come from (besides monetary demand), as nations like China and India modernize.
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I have been bullish on gold and silver ever since I became aware that it was going to be my responsibility to manage my family's money, and that was in 1998. Since then, there have been many monumental stories and occasions that I have considered to be "very bullish" events for gold and silver. One such event was when Harry Shultz became bullish on gold right at the end of the bottom of the gold market. This was bullish because Harry Shultz is a very well respected newsletter writer, the highest paid according to the Guiness book of world records. Another bullish event was when Richard Russell turned bullish on gold, again another of the world's most well respected, highest paid, and accurate newsletter writers, with perhaps up to 10,000 paying subscribers. Finally, another one of those very market bullish events is Bill Bonner being invited, and having accepted, the invitation to be the keynote speaker at the NY Gold show last week, which I attended. Bill Bonner gave a speech about being humble, after having bought gold above $400/oz. recently, thinking it would never again retreat below $400. Evidently, he thought the experience alone was humbling as gold dropped down to $375 afterwards.
Bill Bonner is the author of a free daily market commentary newsletter that you may like. http://www.dailyreckoning.com/
It appears to me that Bill Bonner is now just beginning to understand that silver is better than gold, which is another very bullish event for silver. I say this because Bill Bonner also has an opt-in email list of over 250,000 email addresses.
One of the reasons I decided to go to NY was to speak with Bill Bonner. I met him for about one minute after his speech. I said who I was, and that I had run some ads with the daily reckoning, that were not very successful. (He encouraged me to try again.)
I said I thought it was a market bullish event to see him turn bullish on gold. I think he thought of himself as always having been a "gold bug", but that's not the impression I was getting while reading his market commentary a few years back. I think of him as a gold bug who has lost his way a bit, for he seems too unsure of himself to strongly recommend buying it!
I told him that I had been a gold investor for a few years, although not many, and that now I was more bullish on silver because silver has better supply/demand fundamentals. He replied, "That's what people tell me." And so, I encouraged him to visit goldismoney.com to learn more about silver.
I believe it was a very bullish silver event when Bill Murphy of lemetropolecafe.com turned bullish on silver. Murphy helped to encourage the letter writing campaign to the CFTC, which prompted the CFTC response. But Bill Murphy has only 3600 subscribers, according to the recent article in the June issue of SmartMoney, which did a report on Murphy and GATA's claims that the bullion banks have secretly sold most of their 30,000 tonnes of gold, and only have 16,000 tonnes of gold left.
I believe that Bill Murphy may have helped cause the run up in the silver price to over $8.00/oz. Bill Bonner, could, indeed, help the silver price enormously as well. Bill Bonner may be a bit unsure at this point, but I will say that the silver market is so small that even Bill Bonner's recent interest in silver is a "silver bullish" market event!
(By the way, after I became aware of silver's advantages over gold, it took me a year to make the move in my portfolio. That was partly due to ignorance of available silver investing opportunities, which is partly why I produce this silver stock report.)
On 6-3, The Daily Reckoning sent out an email, "The Metal That Will Make You Rich" (copied below) that is all about silver.
Dear Investor, Here at the Daily Reckoning, we constantly strive to find the next newest and brightest investments. The good news is that we can't find any! That's because the best investments, in our opinion, are the oldest. Truth is, persistent monetary irresponsibility in Washington, will likely help gold and silver outperform almost all other asset classes for the next decade. Sceptical? You should be...we've only been learning about monetary mechanics for twenty years. Below you'll discover why these solid assets have been outperforming their paper counterparts for centuries... Regards, Addison Wiggin,
The Daily Reckoning ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The Metal That Will Make You RichOn the 12th of March the British magazine MoneyWeek ran a cover story entitled: 'The metal that will make you rich.'
The metal was silver. And the article explained how the two metals - gold and silver - have made thousands of people very, very rich in the past... and how understanding the relationship between the two could make you rich, too, in the months ahead.
While many have gotten rich, many more have used the two metals merely to protect their wealth -- and even their lives -- in dangerous, restless periods in history.
And once again, the world seems to have entered one of those periods... an era when the world's stability, safety, and the value of its money are all called into question.
Think about this: if U.S. dollars continue to lose their value (as measured in gold or silver) at the same rate as over the last two years...
...in 10 years time, the dollar may no longer exist.
And now think about this: the two metals do not move together. Still, they are linked. One usually signals -- far in advance -- what the other might do. Understanding that link could be the key to immense profits... to financial security... even to being able to forecast the major financial trends that will affect you and your family.
Of course, I would like to give you the quick answer: here's how it works... here's what's coming... here's what you should do.
If only it were that easy!
The answer is not necessarily quick or easy... but it is far more interesting... and far more rewarding than anything I could tell you in this letter. And you can have access to it in the new comprehensive collection, The History of Gold and Silver.
Once again, London-based Pickering & Chatto makes publishing history by collecting the most important historical documents and creating a stunning overview of timeless subjects in this case, gold and silver, and the relationship between the two precious metals.
For lovers of the printed word, here is an investment secret you can profit from for generations. Own it. Enjoy it. Learn from it. Use it as your personal guide to secure great wealth and a far deeper understanding of money, trade and value than you've ever experienced before...
The History of Gold and Silver
Dear Friend and Reader,
The 21st century has brought nothing but bad news for the dollar. We are four years into it and still, nothing on the horizon indicates an improvement for the de facto world currency.
How disappointing it would be for most Americans... if they understood what this means to their wealth, retirement ... and perhaps most importantly... their family and freedom, but most remain oblivious to the diminishing value of their paychecks, investments, and retirement plans.
Fortunately for the politicians and central bankers, most Americans are clueless to the fact that they are being robbed blind as their currency is devalued.
In March 2000, as the Great American Stock Market Bubble burst, headlines were made from Alaska to Florida and from Moscow to Tokyo. Eight trillion dollars of paper gains evaporated. A public outcry was heard at home from sea to shining sea. But there is no similar cry of pain regarding the plunge of the Greenback... even though all Americans bear the burden, not only stock market investors.
One hundred years ago, by contrast, Presidents, bankers, economists, and philosophers respected gold and silver - not just because it was currency - but also because it protected America's wealth and freedom... and limited the power of governments to debase the currency at the expense of their citizens.
The History of Gold and Silver presents a foundation for understanding the relationship between real value, paper money, international trade, building wealth and securing freedom. It is essential reading for those who want to be well informed. Not in the sense of what is the burning issue in today's headline, but in the terms of understanding the world and how it works.
I have found that you can better determine the course of future events by studying history than by devouring newspapers. The trials and tribulations of Martha Stewart, Michael and Janet Jackson or even George W. Bush shed little light on the most important issues that will affect where we will find ourselves 10, 20 or 30 years down the road.
Writers whose works have stood the test of time and whose insights have enlightened generations before us offer much more to the intelligent reader today than most journalists or best-selling authors, myself included, could ever hope to achieve.
Seven Centuries of Treasured Economic Wisdom in Three VolumesSilver's history is perhaps richer than gold. Both have served as a means of exchange and store of value for as long as people have been recording history.
The first reference to gold that I am aware of is in the second chapter of the book of Genesis, where it is recorded that in the Garden of Eden flowed a river that separated into four headwaters. One of those, the river 'Pishon winds through the entire land of Havilah, where there is gold. The gold of that land is good...'
I find some comfort in the declaration that God considers gold 'good.' I am happy that we share that conviction.
The first mention of silver comes several chapters later. Abram, equally revered by Christians, Jews, and Muslims, left Egypt with his wife, all of his possessions, and his nephew Lot. The author reports that Abram had become 'very wealthy in livestock and in silver and gold.'
I've tried my hand at livestock, raising dairy goats in southern Maryland. I never made much money from them... but the cheese was good. My wife keeps horses, which have cost me more than I ever made from the goat operation.
Gold on the other hand has been quite good to me as an investment... especially in the last few years. While the value of the money I have in dollars in the bank have fallen drastically... the gold I have on hand has increased by much more.
I have little affection for paper money, dollars, euros or treasury notes. But real money, gold and silver, are another matter all together. (You might be interested to know, although the French franc has been replaced by the euro, the French word for money, argent, is the word for silver. The same is true for Spanish and Italian. Silver is money.)
Silver's Golden Era?I write about gold often in The Daily Reckoning. You can easily find my recent musings on the Midas Metal. I'm bullish on gold. But I don't write much about silver and this book stirred my interest.There's a powerful case to be made for silver today. The silver story differs from the case for gold. Because of its durability, almost every single ounce of gold that has ever been mined is still in circulation today. But not so with silver. Silver supplies are being used by industry and medicine at a far faster rate than it is being produced. Gold is a store of value and prized for jewelry and decorative arts. Silver, although revered as money, is also a precious industrial commodity. Over 90% of all the silver mined in the past 5,000 years has been used up by industry and is gone forever. Silver is disappearing... at least what's above ground. According to James Cook, a respected silver analyst, 'Each year, the silver supply falls 200 million ounces, or about 25% short of industrial demand... Shockingly enough, all of the known and recorded silver in commodity warehouses and elsewhere comes to only 150 million ounces. Industry requires almost 900 million ounces a year. Something has to give.'Maybe that's why the world's most successful investor, Warren Buffet, is also the largest acknowledged holder of silver in the world? When he bought silver he told his shareholders, 'In recent years, bullion inventories have fallen materially, and last summer Charlie and I concluded that a higher price would be needed to establish equilibrium between supply and demand. Inflation expectations, it should be noted, play no part in our calculation of silver's value.'Nothing has changed since then... except that silver is still rising in price. In the December 2003 Forbes, respected analyst James Grant made a powerful case for silver going to $49... Seven times the current price! But these tomes give you something even more important... The big historical picture.For more information, visit: http://www.dailyreckoning.com/
------------------
Another very bullish event for silver this week is that AIG announced they will no longer attempt to short and "fix" or suppress the price of silver. That's not what they admitted of course, that that's what I believe it means, when I read between the lines.
AIG no longer an LBMA market maker in gold, silver
Excerpt:
LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - AIG International Limited, part of American International Group Inc, will no longer be a London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) market maker in gold and silver, the LBMA said on Tuesday. LBMA Chief Executive Stewart Murray told Reuters AIG had been reclassified as a member and so would still trade, with effect from close of business on Friday May 28. AIG was a first-tier market maker and dealer in over-the-counter spot, forward, option and swap markets in precious metals. Murray said the company requested to be reclassified. AIG was not immediately available for comment. Why would AIG request to be reclassified? Think about it. As GATA reported, this is like the Rothschilds abandoning the gold fix. These are very bullish events for silver. If there is a cabel of silver shorts, what does it mean if they lose their ringleader?
------------------
In fact, now that I realize it, it might be a "silver bullish event" that I will be speaking in Vancouver in two weeks. The reason is that a few years ago, I was not even a voice for silver, and I was just starting to buy. Last November at the SF gold show, it was the only the second time I had even been to a gold show. David Morgan of http://www.silver-investor.com (I subscribe, and recommend) barely had an opportunity to speak. The SF gold show the year before, I think David Morgan only had 15 minutes of total speaking time in the main conference hall--there was such little investor interest in silver.
------------------
I received an interesting email from:
mcclory@safe-mail.com
I have for sale 500 German 1000$ Government 5 ½ Loan
Gold Bonds from 1930, JP Morgan & CO New York. I saw that
you are interested in items like this. For details I can
be contacted at this nr: 0034 667 930 357 and also on
mcclory@safe-mail.net ------------------
I received a troubling letter:
Jason,
I have been a reader of yours since 10/03 and it was your articles that got me interested on silver. I thank you for this.
It was your selling of Clifton Mining and your negative writings that puzzled me in the beginning. I wondered how you can talk a good game about Clifton and suddenly sell. Your explanation about taking profit held water.
It was when I began doing some investigating in various chat rooms that your name came up quite often. It was not very pleasant, what was spoken about you.
It seems that generally speaking, your writings about various silver miners tend to 'pump up' the reader into buying, and as you yourself have stated, 'taking profits' as you 'dump' the stocks after a rise of a few bucks. Even though you disclaim being a financial advisor, you have learned to bend the law to your advantage with the way you operate.
Clifton Mining is coming under scrutiny and being investigated for improper conduct. I wouldn't be surprised if you knew of this and sold all shares of Clifton for that reason.
I have chosen to agree with these individuals that you are indeed a "pump, dump and in your rump" kind of silver trader. Even though you speak from a holy pulpit, you are far from innocent of taking the sheep for a fleecing. There is no wonder why your readers have begun dropping. You cannot fool everyone.
I will no longer praise your name, but instead speak of what I have experienced from your evaluations of silver miners in particular, and of your back room dealings with the miners in general.
There is no need for you to respond to this e-mail. I've read enough of your scriptures.
Apparently, this person thinks I should not be allowed to sell one silver stock for another. To address his accusations:
1. My report contains over 100 silver stocks. Although I admit I'm biased, because every human is and must be to some respect, I believe my report is the most accurate and most comprehensive that there is. One key reason I produce this report is to show that there are many alternatives to buying a single silver stock.
2. I'm not "bending the law to my advantage" with the "way I operate". The law says we have free speech in the U.S.
3. I did not, and do not, know whether Clifton was under scrutiny or being investigated for improper conduct.
And finally, for the record, I have lost about 50% on several silver stocks during the recent drop in silver and gold prices. The stocks I owned that declined the most are Kenrich Eskay, KRE.V, which I bought at $.85 and was down to $.39, now at $.48, so I'm currently down 44% on that one. Another stock where I'm holding a losing position is Golden Eagle, MYNG.OB, where I'm currently down 44%. Golden Eagle is the last gold stock I own.
I met Tim Wood at the NY Gold show, and he suggested I visit the Mineweb website for comments that Clifton made about my holdings of Clifton. See here: http://www.mineweb.net/sections/junior_mining/moellerletter.htm
Excerpt: Date: Thu, 27 May 2004 03:09:48 +0200
From: Keith Moeller <clifton @ cliftonmining.com>
To: tim @ mineweb.net
Subject: Re: Questions for Mr Moeller
Someone else asked me about Bob today. What has Bob got to do with us. There are NUMEROUS people who are and have touted the potential of Clifton stock, who are letter, mining, and biotech, writers. Bob is not a board member or manager or shareholder to my knowledge. If he was smart he picked some up stock for his personal portfolio last year, but I have no idea if Bob has any or not, he has none from us. Nor have we given him any cash, nor any of the other letter and account writers. Dr. Berry told his clients that he holds it in his portfolio and so did Jason H., although Jason told everyone that he sold his at $2.20/share, which now seemed like it was a good move just before metals crashed. Every writer picks a target price, Jason was at obviously $2.20, he said that he still liked the stock but that he had had big gains and was selling.
In my very first silver stock report, I reported Clifton selling at $.29/share. For proof, see
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1064240475.php
I did not buy at such a low level, but seeing the stock rise from such a low level in such a short time caused me to want to lock in some gains.
It is unfortunate that people ask mining company executives about what newsletter writers are doing and why. Trust me when I tell you that the companies do not know. Furthermore, people should not email me about what mining companies are doing. Trust me when I tell you, I don't know. If you want to know what I'm doing, you have to subscribe to the "look at my portfolio". That's why I sell it. If you want to know what a company is up to, please do them the favor of reviewing their website first, and perhaps also reviewing their latest annual report, and then call them up as a knowledgeable and informed investor.
Please allow me to remind everyone why stock exists, and why we have brokers. Stocks exist not only to eliminate liability, but also so that anonymous ownership can exist. Brokers exist so that people can buy and sell anonymously. If such anonymity did not exist, markets could not exist. Gold and silver are money. Gold and silver are very valuable. To protect such value, you have to keep the existence of it secret. I take a huge risk by deciding to become a public silver bullion advocate. To entice people to sell (and use) the real and hidden wealth, you must allow for them to be anonymous. We cannot expect every holder of gold and silver bullion to proclaim to the world how much metal they have and where they keep it.
Now, although I reveal a few certain things about my personal portfolio, by placing the asterisk by the stocks I own, and by selling the "look at my portfolio", please respect that private property demands privacy. I don't broadcast what I will buy or sell in advance. Such would be financial suicide for myself--especially in the tiny world of gold and silver stocks. I don't even tell my broker how much I intend to buy or sell. And the orders that I place with him, sometimes he tries to spread them out over the course of a day or two days, or even three days, so that the size of the order will not cause the market to move away from our order. For example, if I buy big, sometimes the price will run up, or if I sell big, the price will drop. To get the best price, even my broker tries not to let the other traders know how much we are trying to buy or sell. Therefore, I would never cut off my broker's right hand and betray him and his work by telling 10,000 people in an email list what I was going to do before hand.
There is a reason why I tell you what I own in this report. Although most of my readers look at it as a "recommendation", it's not. It's an SEC requirement, and it's there to protect you. If you don't want to own a stock I'm selling, then don't own any of the stocks I own. I only own about 20 of the 100+ stocks on the list. There's more than enough to go around for us all. However, there is not likely enough silver and silver stocks for the mult-trillion dollars that are parked in bonds.
Please understand, also, that there is a fundamental difference between a "good" company with "good" prospects, which is one thing, and then getting a good company at a great price, which is something entirely different. Several other companies that are making money are Wal-Mart and Microsoft. But I don't think those companies sell for a great price. I could rave about the genius of the business plans of Wal-Mart and Microsoft, and the continuation of profits... but what do those profits cost for the shareholder who buys today? That's an entirely different issue. And you get that number from looking at the P/E ratio.
As a good example: I recently met a man at the NY Gold show at the cocktail reception who told me about uranium. He was raving about good supply and demand fundamentals. (Although I think silver has better ones. Uranium will never have monetary demand for it.) He was raving about recent increases in price, from about $7/pound to $17/pound. He was raving about a company, a uranium miner, that was able to profit from uranium even at $7/pound, so they obviously would have good profits today. He gave me the name of this "secret uranium stock", "for free". I asked him the market cap. He said, $2.5 billion. (Ouch, I winced. I don't think I own a single stock over $100 million market cap at the moment.) He said, "Guess how much electricity in the U.S. is supplied by nuclear power? I said 20-25%. Which was correct. He said, "Guess how much electricity in France is from nuclear? I said 80-85%. He said, "You really know your stuff," and he complimented me. He told me more about this uranium company that has fantastic profits that come from a really high grade of 25% uranium. I asked, "what is the price to earnings, P/E ratio"? He said he did not know! Did not know? I was flabbergasted!!! How can you be excited enough to invest in a company--and tell others about it excitedly--when the story is all about "fantastic current profits" and not even know the P/E ratio? How can there be fantastic profits, but he didn't even know what they were?
Time to pause from writing, and hunt down the name of this company in my notes, so I can find the answer. Ah, Cameco, CCJ on the NYSE. CCJ, at $53.40/share, and a market cap of $3.04 Billion, has a P/E ratio of 20. That means the market cap, which is the "price" is 20 times more than the profits, which must be $152 million. This is a lot like a bond paying 5%, which is 1/20th of the price. More info: Cameco Reports Solid First Quarter Earnings
A statement in the above press release says the company expects better earnings from a higher uranium price next quarter. But so what? The stock price could stay flat, and the P/E could drop to 10 --even if profits double! I don't want a stock that may have a flat share price, and I'm not interested in buying when the P/E ratio is 10 or above. More likely, the market cap will double as profits double, and the P/E ratio may stay the same. But I'm not interested in a stock that "may only double" in a few years.
There is a company, for comparison, that I like. For the last few weeks, this silver stock has had a market cap of under $28 million. I expect this company may have profits of $28 million within a year or two, also given where I think the silver price will go within that time frame. That's an expected P/E ratio of about 1. Other silver projects within this same country as this company have sold for P/E ratios for as low as 2 and 3, so I have strong confidence that this is real. This is why P/E ratios of 20 do not excite me. Why wait for 20 years to get my money back when I think I can get it back in about one to two years? I won't say what the company name is, because if I did, it would be harder for me to buy. But it is on this list.
-------------------
Silver investors' complaints against the CFTC, and the CFTC response, get more press:
A glint of chicanery in the silver market?
By Mike Blahnik
Minneapolis Star-Tribune
Sunday, May 30, 2004
http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/4799894.html
Here's another article:
http://www.spokesmanreview.com/allstories-news-story.asp?date=060204&ID=s1525515
By Becky Kramer
Spokane Spokesman-Review, Washington
Wednesday, June 2, 2004
Mark J. Lundeen says he's not a believer in conspiracies,
but the Minneapolis investor does admit to suspicions
about the price of silver.
In 1994, the retired Navy man began buying up mining
stocks, expecting silver prices to rise.
"It was just common sense, Economics 101," Lundeen
said in a telephone interview last week. "They're using
up more silver than they're mining. You'd expect prices
to rise, based on the laws of supply and demand."
But silver prices have been stalled in the $4 to $6 range
for most of the past decade, a source of frustration to
silver producers and investors alike, and the genesis for
countless Internet chat room discussions about possible
manipulation in the market.
Lundeen joined more than 500 other small investors in
writing to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading
Commission this year, asking for an investigation of their
suspicions. Last month, the CFTC took the unusual step
of posting a public reply.
In a nine-page letter, Commission Chairman Michael
Gorham dismissed allegations that commodity traders
were acting together to influence prices, a theory put
forth by some of the investors. He also said there's no
indication that silver is trading at artificially low prices.
"As I read these letters, I was touched by the
disappointment expressed by many small investors in
the behavior of the silver market and the heartfelt feeling
that lower-than-expected prices were the result of
collusion by a handful of big players," Gorham wrote.
But those allegations have no backing, he said.
The "collusion" theory runs something like this: World
demand for silver is outpacing the amount of silver
mined each year. That means that silver stockpiles
are diminishing, and prices should be rising sharply.
But the short-selling of large volumes of silver by
commodity traders is depressing on silver prices. Some
investors say it's a 20-year conspiracy to keep prices
low.
"The CFTC has closely monitored the silver market,"
Gorham wrote in the letter. "We found no evidence of
manipulation, and those making the allegations have
provided no evidence of manipulation."
Even if the world's stockpiles of silver are declining, as
some data indicates, there's no shortage of silver,
Gorham said. And that, not market manipulation, is
keeping the prices at current levels, he said.
The rumors are familiar in North Idaho, where domestic
silver mines have struggled for years to stay open.
"It goes all the way back to the Hunt Brothers," said
Jack Lyman, executive director of the Idaho Mining
Association. "You hear these kinds of whispers. ...
I've never seen anything that documents any
substance to it."
In the late 1970s and early 1980s, a Texan named
Nelson Hunt and his two brothers attempted to corner
the world silver market. Silver briefly shot up to $50 per
ounce in 1980, but Hunt's scheme didn't pan out, and
prices fell rapidly.
The fears of market manipulation resurface from time
to time.
In 1989, the chairman of the now-defunct Sunshine
Mining Co. accused large silver users of a "complex
orchestration" to keep silver prices low. His remarks
led to a congressional hearing in Coeur d'Alene.
"We were trying to get the Silver Valley back into
production," recalled U.S. Sen. Larry Craig, R-Idaho,
who scheduled the hearing. "Of course, the price
was the dominant factor."
Craig also promised to launch a congressional
investigation into silver prices in 1989. Last week, he
said he couldn't recall the outcome. His staff members
said no evidence of wrongdoing or manipulation ever
emerged.
At shareholders' urging, silver producer Hecla Mining
Co. has launched its own investigations of silver prices.
"We have twice obtained outside special counsel ... to
investigate whether there were any illegalities in the
commodity trading," said Vicki Veltkamp, Hecla's vice
president of investor and public affairs. "We were unable
to find any evidence that we could act on."
The last investigation occurred about six months ago.
"We decided the best place to put our energy is mining
the metals at low cost," Veltkamp said. "That way the
mines can make money even if the price of silver goes
down."
Rumors have a way of intensifying when metals prices
are low, noted Laura Skaer, executive director of the
Northwest Mining Association in Spokane. When gold
slid below $300 per ounce between 1999 and 2002, the
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee and an accompanying
Web site, www.gata.org, were born.
"There were really people who thought that central
banks were manipulating the price of gold," Skaer
said. "Obviously, it was a controversial view within
the industry."
With gold prices back near $400 per ounce, Skaer said
she hears fewer rumors. Mining companies are able to
attract the investors to raise money for new mine
development and exploration at that price.
"People are too busy working to worry about whether the
price of gold is being manipulated," Skaer said.
Lundeen, meanwhile, said he appreciates the CFTC's
letter, but isn't entirely convinced by Gorham's response.
He's written numerous letters to governors and
congressmen over the years about silver prices. He said
he's never received a satisfactory explanation.
"He's not looking very hard," Lundeen said of Gorham.
"He has all the information, but he's putting the burden
of proof in me. It's incumbent of them to make sure the
fair market is fair."
-------------------
At the NY Gold show, I was discussing the decreased liquidity, or reduced volume of trading of many of the silver stocks in the last month or so as the price moved down from $8/oz. The general consensus seemed to be that those traders who really understand and believe in the merits of silver and silver stocks are already fully invested. And those of us who are fully invested don't like to sell anything at a loss, myself included. Thus, when all the silver stocks are down, we trade less, to avoid "locking in a loss". We tend to sell once the price comes back at least to what we paid for it, which also tends to create what they call "resistance" in a stock price when it begins to move to a new high. Furthermore, those people who invest in the sector generally don't hold equal portions of cash and silver stocks in order to be able to trade in and out. Instead, people tend to either plunge in, or sell out. And still most people who trade in and out are momentum chasing, instead of buying real value. These tendencies help to cause the increased volatility.
I read that another reason for increased volatility for the precious metals sector was the carry trade. Many funds are beginning to borrow money at low interest rates, and then, they buy commodities, or gold and silver. These buyers who are in debt must avoid a loss. Therefore, they are extremely sensitive to price changes, and especially sensitive to any drop in the price of precious metals. Furthermore, they would be sensitive to rising interest rates, and to a rise in the dollar. Therefore, as the dollar has recently had a mini rally, and as there has been fears of interest rate rises, and a precious metals price decline, some of these funds may have reversed their "dollar carry trade" to buy into precious metals.
It certainly makes sense to me that borrowing money to buy gold and silver can cause increased volatility. After all, the Hunt Brothers leveraged their purchases of silver, borrowing money on the value of their silver holdings, and that is exactly what led to their exit from the silver market.
-------------------
Yahoo Finance had a quiz question this Sunday, very important for gold and silver market observers to understand.
When the market for a stock gets "cornered," who loses the most?
| How respondents have answered: |
| | 134451 votes to date |
| Put writers |  10% | 14617 votes | | Short sellers | 40% | 54847 votes | | Small investors who purchase late | 31% | 42372 votes | | Program traders forced to rebalance portfolios | 16% | 22615 votes |
The correct answer is:
Short Sellers
"Cornering the market" happen rarely now, but it was so common in the post-Civil War period that some contemporary observers argued that "all large fortunes are made by corners."1
A corner arises, according to The Stock Market, when two things happen at the same time. First, some individual or entity begins to amass concentrated ownership of the shares of a stock. At the same time, short sellers, betting that the stock will decline, sell shares short--meaning they borrow shares at today's price, promising to replace them at future prices. However, the short sellers wind up borrowing their shares from the controlling group--there is nobody else to borrow shares from--and in some cases actually borrow more shares than actually exist. This is what it means to be cornered, because at this point, when the short sellers want to cover their shorts--that is, repurchase the shares they borrowed--they have to pay any price the controlling group demands.
Tip: True corners are rare these days, but "short squeezes" are more common. You can watch for a potential short squeeze by keeping track of the shares short in relation to the float. That's found, on Yahoo! Finance, on the Key Statistics page for each stock--for example, IBM, under the Share Statistics section.
More about short selling:
• The Basics of Shorting Stocks - About.com
• Selling Short - glossary definition
Message Boards - Short Selling
1 Henry Clews, Fifty Years in Wall Street (New York: Irving, 1908), p. 101, cited in Teweles & Bradley, The Stock Market (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1998).
I put this into my weekly commentary because of two things. First, I believe the women of the world have cornered both the gold and silver markets as more physical bullion has been turned into Jewelry than most people realize. And there are large short positions in silver and gold. And the answer to this question shows that most people do not even realize that the shorts will lose when there is a corner in the market.
Second, the piece quotes an interesting line, "Cornering the market" happen(s) rarely now, but it was so common in the post-Civil War period that some contemporary observers argued that "all large fortunes are made by corners."1
This, I believe, goes to show that there will be very large fortunes made by gold and silver bullion investors, because of the corner in these markets by the women of the world who have bought up so much in the form of jewelry.
-------------------
Now, there are few to zero primary silver companies with significant profits at $6/oz. Of course, silver is mined, but mostly as a by-product of copper, zinc, lead, and gold mining, where the profits come from mining the other minerals. And silver is also mined at a loss by CDE, and sometimes HL. This also goes to show that silver is undervalued if nobody can mine it profitably. So then, why would anyone even invest in a silver miner at these low prices? Because we expect the prices of the stocks to move higher faster than we expect silver prices to move. There may be minimal profits now, but there should be big profits if silver begins to hit $50/oz., and if expenses don't also rise.
-------------------
Because I have a market reach, I also receive a lot of tips about silver stocks. And thus, I believe I may have invested in some of the best ones that came my way. If you believe I may have an edge based on my work and position... then the best way for me to share this with you is to is tell you where I put my money. It's not investment advice. I offer a monthly "look at my portfolio". I do not issue recommendations, and I don't list number of shares or the size of my portfolio, but I will show the top investments in my portfolio, by rank, updated monthly.
Price: $39.95/monthly, or $49.95 for a single month, or $295.00/year
To order: http://www.goldismoney.com/available-reports.html
If you have any questions about billing or order fulfillment, you need to contact my support staff at support@goldismoney.com and not me. I manage a large portfolio, and I don't have time to process billing requests. I don't bill any cards, my support staff handles all of that. The toll free telephone customer support line is: 877-895-6824.
Limited Time Special Offer!
Buy 1 Annual Subscription to Jason's Monthly Top Picks and get ALL other articles FREE!
------------------
Now, I think it's time that the silver community started a letter writing campaign to the editors of newspapers around the world, to tell them about silver. The following links contain email addresses for hundreds of different newspaper's "letters to the editor"
http://www.awolbush.com/papers.html
http://www.results.org/website/article.asp?id=428
http://www.waronfreedom.org/activists/emleted.html
The first two links above have lists of emails, but the third one is awesome because the emails are all in one neat list, so I have copied it to my site, too.
http://www.goldismoney.com/editorsemails.html
This final link lists the email addresses for about 200 world newspapers, and about 100 U.S. newspapers, so you can email them all at once. You have to copy the list, and paste it into your email, and there are direct instructions on tips for submission of letters to the editor. Most editors, most papers, want letters of 250 words or less, and many also want your full name, address and telephone number. So the task is easy. But if 500 people write letters on the silver market to about 300 newspapers around the world, I believe wonderful things will happen.
Here is a sample letter:
May 21, 2004
Dear Editor,
I'm a silver investor. I believe paper money is fraudulent. There is over 30 trillion dollars, U.S., worth of bonds in the world, but less than 2 trillion dollars worth of gold, according to gold.org.
As of April, 2004, the size of M3, the money in U.S. banks, has reached 9.1 trillion dollars, yet due to fractional reserve banking, the total of U.S. currency and coin in circulation is only 724 billion dollars as reported by treas.gov.
At silverinstitute.org and cpmgroup.com, they each report that silver has been in a deficit for about 15 years, where world mine supply has been about 500 million ounces, scrap supply about 200 million ounces, and industrial and jewelry demand about 800 million ounces. The difference, about 100 million ounces, has come from investor and government selling, drawing down reserves of silver. Known supplies of refined silver are down to about 250 to 600 million ounces. At the COMEX, they are down to 48 million ounces of silver left that is registered for delivery, which you can see at nymex.com.
The governments of the world are printing up too much paper money, and the world is running out of real money, silver. I believe this will lead to the price of silver rising dramatically in value, around the world.
I urge your readers to verify the statistics I have provided, and to make their own decisions.
Sincerely,
Jason Hommel
Grass Valley, USA
Goldismoney.com
(530) 274 3450
When I sent out my letter above to that list, I received about 70 "undeliverable/delivery has failed" messages. I sent it BCC, or "blind carbon copy", which means it may be interpreted as spam. It may have had more of an impact if I sent out my letter to each address individually, but I just didn't have the time to do that this week. Maybe next month.
I also did not include my full address, which some editors require. But I'd rather keep a bit of privacy in that regard.
------------------
General Commentary on Silver (slightly modified from last week):
The sponsors of the Sound Money Bill in New Hampshire are now looking for donations so they can take this to other states!
For news on the New Hampshire Sound Money Bill, that proposes to use U.S. Treasury minted Silver Eagles and Gold Eagles as money see:
http://www.nh-inews.org/
http://veritasradio.com/ -- site temporarily disabled.
Current status of the NH bill:
The bill will live until the November elections. It'll have a different #,
but we now have 6 months or so to get EVERYONE we need on board.
Now looking to raise $25,000 to $35,000 for "phase II", to get set up with an office and staff training..
Looking to raise $500,000 for "phase III", to take this to about 5 other states.
Send any donations you can, to:
[These are not political campaign donations.]
SOUND MONEY FOR AMERICA,
c/o Henry W. McElroy,
15 Iroquois Rd, Nashua, NH 03063
ANY AMOUNT, ANY LEGAL TENDER CURRENCY - U.S. OR FOREIGN !
Video copies of the sound money bill press conference are available for a $35 donation.
For more info, contact
Rep. Henry W. McElroy, NH State Representative
Sponsor of the bill
603-233-5892
Harvey Wharfield
978-635-9586
We also need assistance with the following.
1. Please contact your local representative to your state government. Find out whether they might support a similar "sound money bill" in your own state.
To contact your state rep to the federal goverment, see http://www.house.gov/writerep/
To contact your state rep to your local state government, you will have to find that on your own. Try searching for "contact state representative california" and replace the name of your state in the search.
2. If you know of any local representaives to your state government, who may be GOOD, LIKE MINDED REPRESENTATIVES, SENATORS, and GOVERNORS, who may like to support, or sponsor, a sound money bill in your state, please tell them about the NH initative. Copy the above, and send it along to them. And call Henry W. McElroy or Harvey Wharfield, and let them know of the other reps who may assist the cause.
3. If you have an email list to people who may be interested in gold and silver as money, or who may be good conservatives, please send out this notice to the list, so the project can move forward!
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There are two excellent annual silver surveys that are sponsored by industry.
The survey by silverinstitute.org costs $195, 87 pages.
http://www.silverinstitute.org/wssum03.pdf -- 8 page free summary of last year's report.
The survey by cpmgroup.com costs $150, 162 pages.
http://www.cpmgroup.com/SSpress2004.pdf --3 page press release.
The two reports present the case that about 500 million oz. of silver are mined each year, about 200 million oz. of silver comes from scrap, and about 100 million oz. of silver comes from investor dis-hoarding, either by individuals or government sources, in order to meet the annual demand of about 800 million oz. of silver by industry & jewelry. This is wildly bullish, because investors are net selling more than buying, and I think the potential of investor demand is huge, and can be measured by seeing how much paper money there is in the world.
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Here are two U.S. Government produced reports on silver, containing data on years from 1900 to present, on U.S. & world production, and U.S. consumption, and U.S. industry & government stockpiles.
Report #1
http://www.goldismoney.com/ssr/USsilver.xls
Report #2
http://www.goldismoney.com/ssr/USsilver2.xls
I evaluated these government produced reports in my silver stock report #36.
In sum, we are running out of silver. The U.S. government had over 3 billion ounces of silver in 1940, and today, has very little left, or none.
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The Commodities Futures Trading Commission
The CFTC report on the allegations of manipulation in the silver market -- 9 page report
The CFTC report confirmes much of the research above, and almost outlines the bullish case for silver!
--My comments on the CFTC report ar in silver stock report #34 & #35
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See my article: Biblical Guidelines for Managing your Money
As the New York Times, January 11, 1859, page 2 said---
"It is well known that the most colossal fortunes the world ever saw have been based on silver mines..."
--quote found by Charles Savoie
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WHERE and HOW to BUY SILVER BULLION
http://www.goldismoney.com/buy-gold.php
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My 2004-2009 price predictions for gold and silver:
2004: $595/oz. gold, 50:1 ratio = $12/oz. silver
2005: $1011/oz. gold, 30:1 ratio = $34/oz. silver
2006: $1719/oz. gold, 10:1 ratio = $172/oz. silver
2007: $2923/oz. gold, 5:1 ratio = $ 585/oz. silver
2008: $4,969/oz. gold, 1:1 ratio = $4969/oz. silver
2009: $8448/oz. gold, 5:1 ratio = $1698/oz. silver
2010+: infinity dollars/oz. gold, infinity dollars/oz. silver.
I calculate the gold price rise by guessing that by 2009, M3 will have a "gold-value" like it did in 1980, which is to say, M3 was worth 2 Billion oz. of gold or less. It also assumes M3 will about triple in that time. These figures are conservative, because I see no reason that M3 should be valued more than the gold the U.S. actually holds, which is a mere 261 million oz., not billion. Today, the M3 value is $8870 billion / $425/oz. = 19 billion oz. of gold M3 could buy in theory. The silver:gold ratio is also a very, very vague guess, reflective of monetary demand chasing silver, which is more scarce than gold in above ground, refined form. I have no idea when the ratio of 15:1 will be exceeded, I'm just totally guessing. I suppose it could happen this year or next month for all I know. Of course my real price targets are infinity dollars per oz. for both gold and silver when all is said and done, I just don't know how long that will take, nor what year it will be. But my point in producing the price predictions is to show my bullishness for silver and gold.
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I wrote an article predicting that Silver Companies will buy silver, and urging Silver Companies to buy silver with their cash, to use silver as money, and sell silver as needed for expenses. See http://news.goldseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1069879327.php
That article is now having an effect! It is being discussed by several large "cash rich" silver companies, who are seriously considering the idea of holding their cash in the form of silver.
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A great overview on silver: Douglas Kanarowski's 78 Approaching Forces For Higher Silver Prices
See also Douglas Kanarowski's article: What Impact Will Digital Photography Have on Silver?
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See the 600 year silver chart to see how undervalued silver really is:
http://goldinfo.net/silver600.html
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Look at the summary of the world silver survey by GFMS Limited on behalf of The Silver Institute :
http://www.gfms.co.uk/Publications%20Samples/WSS03-summary.pdf
Note, there is virtually no monetary nor investment demand. Note, the 2002 mine production (585 mil oz.) is greatly exceeded by industrial, photo, and jewelry demand. (838 mil oz.). Note the chart on page five, "Supply from above-ground stocks".
The difference between mine supply and industrial demand was met by a combination of three factors: 1. Government selling, 2. Private selling, 3. Recycling
U.S. government selling is ending, as their stocks have run out, or will run out. This factor will reverse, because the U.S. government will need silver to continue their coin program, and/or need silver when they wake up and decide they need to replenish their strategic stockpile for domestic security. Silver is a war material. China's selling of silver will also likely turn into buying, as China will need silver for continued industrial development, or when they also lose faith in the U.S. dollar.
Private selling has been rapidly shrinking and is now almost ended, and should turn into buying, and become monetary demand. Monetary demand is everything in the silver supply / demand situation. It's not now. Now, it's nothing. But it will become something incredible, because the dollar is dying.
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The following is a "must read": Ted Butler's best ever explanation of how silver is manipulated lower than it should be.
http://www.investmentrarities.com/11-04-03.html
Over 3400 people have signed the silver petition to stop the manipulation at the COMEX:
http://www.PetitionOnline.com/comex/
Ted correctly points out that a lower price creates excessive demand from consumers. However, Ted Butler does not point out, and neglects to mention, that a perpetually low price also creates lack of demand from investors who are "trend investors".
I think most silver experts over-analyze all the supply and demand factors of the silver market. No factor is more important than monetary demand. The force of photographic demand is like a light breeze compared to the hurricane or tornado of monetary demand. Monetary demand is everything.
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Consider the gold market for a moment: Even short selling at the COMEX is nothing compared to monetary demand. The short position most certainly helps to depress the price of gold as the short position is growing larger. However, it adds fuel to the fire if there is short covering, and thus, it can boost the gold price later. But the commercial short position on the COMEX is next to nothing compared to the non-reported "over the counter" trading that is done that does not appear on the COMEX.
(Numbers in metric tonnes, 32,152 oz. per tonne.)
870 tonnes -- the paper position at the COMEX, 280,000 contracts for 100 oz. each.
5,000 tonnes -- the official number admitted that the central banks have sold.
15,000 tonnes -- the number GATA research shows that central banks have sold / or leased.
30,000 tonnes -- the number of official central bank gold, minus either the 5000 or 15,000 tonnes.
145,000 tonnes -- all the gold mined in the history of the world.
2,600 tonnes -- annual mine supply
4,000 tonnes -- annual demand
And all of that is nothing compared to the amount of dollars out there that exist that could buy gold. $20 trillion bonds, $9 trillion M3 = $29 Trillion. A mere 1% is $290 Billion, which, at $500 /oz. is a massive demand of 18,039 tonnes. Do you understand what that means? That means that far, far less than 1% of dollars, in either bonds or M3 can buy gold, because there simply is not that much gold available.
Long before 1% of U.S. paper dollars tries to buy gold, gold will be going up well over $1000/oz., and silver will be headed up over $50/oz.
----------------------------
To scare away investors--that is the entire reason gold and silver are manipulated in the first place. Only the trend investors can be deceived. The problem is that nearly everyone is a trend investor. So few investors understand value. If people knew the facts and used their brains, the available above-ground refined silver would be gone by tomorrow, and the price would be well over $20-50/oz. But don't trust me, check the numbers and follow the links:
1,000,000,000,000: 1 Trillion dollars
1,000,000,000: 1 Billion dollars
1,000,000: 1 Million dollars
$33,000,000,000,000: World bond market, yr end, '01: http://tinyurl.com/vr7u
$26,400,000,000,000: World stock market, June 2002: http://www.nyse.com/press/1044027443845.html$20,200,000,000,000: U.S. bond market, yr end, '02: http://tinyurl.com/vr7g $11,447,800,000,000: U.S. GDP, 2004 q1 http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/home/gdp.htm$11,300,000,000,000: NYSE U.S. stock market, April, '04 (363 bill/s x $31.14/s ave.) http://nyse.com (See: Market info: quick facts) $9,101,000,000,000: M3 (money in U.S. banks) April, '04 http://tinyurl.com/vra0 $7,183,392,668,476: US debt, 5-18-04 http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm $2,360,000,000,000: U.S. annual budget 2005 http://tinyurl.com/3xbd2 $2,572,160,000,000: Marcos/Phillipine "black/unofficial" gold: 200,000 (to 500,000) Tonnes @ $400/oz. (Book: "Gold Warriors") $1,860,000,000,000: World "official" gold, 145,000 T @ $400/oz. http://tinyurl.com/vrcc $724,174,342,365: Total U.S. paper currency & coin in circulation, Dec. 31, '03 http://www.fms.treas.gov/bulletin/index.html $700,000,000,000: U.S. budget deficit (current). $272,000,000,000: Market Cap of Microsoft (03-2004) http://tinyurl.com/vrcn $222,000,000,000: M3 increase (money in U.S. banks) from Jan 2004 to April 2004 (in three months). $180,000,000,000: Debt of Ford Motor Co. (03-2004) http://tinyurl.com/vrd1 $104,400,000,000: US gold, 261 mil oz., @ $400/oz. http://tinyurl.com/vsr9 $100,000,000,000: all the world's gold stocks (estimated?) $75,000,000,000: Money flowed into Equity funds in the first quarter, 2004 $7,090,000,000: all the world's silver stocks (59 of them on this list, as of Dec. 5th, 2003) (Perhaps $10 billion by April?) $6,710,000,000: 671 mil oz. of "identifiable" silver bullion in the entire world, according to GFMS @ $10/oz. $469,000,000: 46.9 mil oz. of "registered" COMEX silver bullion @ $10/oz. http://tinyurl.com/vrcw
For a while I was using M3 and dividing that by the US gold (261 million ounces), which implies the us dollar is 84 times more valuable than it should be, and that gold should hit $34,000/oz. after the fraud is destroyed. Today, I realize I need to add in the Bond market, because bonds are an asset class designed to siphon away and replace real money, which is to say, gold. This gives a price of about $111,111/oz. for gold. At $ 430/oz, this implies that US bonds and paper currency are 258 times more overvalued than gold.
Gold is overvalued relative to silver, because at current prices, it takes 68 ounces of silver to buy 1 ounce of gold. Historically, this ratio was 15 or 16. Given the silver shortage, this ratio will hit 10:1 or 5:1, or even 1:1. Thus, gold is perhaps 68 times more overvalued than silver.
Silver is overvalued relative to certain select silver stocks, perhaps by a factor of 3 or 10 or 20 to one.
Thus, if you multiply all those numbers, 258 x 68 x 10, You will see that bonds and currency are overvalued relative to select silver stocks by a factor of 139,000 to one. In other words, if silver stocks reach their true value, and paper currency disappears as it always does, then you might expect certain silver stocks to go up in relative value by a factor of 139,000 times more than they are worth today. By that time, you should definitely sell the silver stocks, and buy gold.
Can silver stocks really appreciate so much? Is there historical evidence for such a crazy thing? Yes.
See http://www.sterlingmining.com/old.html
Excerpt:
"CDE rose from penny stock status (.02 in 1967) to an NYSE-listed, $60 per share stock in 1980. In fact, the average share on the Spokane Stock Exchange rose in value nearly 16000% (yes, sixteen THOUSAND percent), as America could not get enough of silver and silver stocks."
CDE rose by a factor of 3000, or 300,000%, and by 1980, the metals boom was stopped short, and paper money's death was postponed. If paper money dies a death that lasts a generation world-wide, then even greater gains should have been expected.
For this reason, a wise silver stock investor should NEVER sell silver stocks for paper cash. A wise silver stock investor who looks for value would never sell a fairly valued silver stock for an overvalued silver stock that traded for hundreds of thousands of times more value than it should be. Likewise, there is no excuse for a silver stock investor to have any cash or money market or bonds in his portfolio for any reasonable length of time, except for when selling one silver stock to raise the cash for another silver stock, or for when you need to raise the cash to buy silver, or a private placement in another silver stock.
So, if you want some fairly liquid alternatives to cash, in case you don't know what other silver stocks to buy at the time, here they are:
1. Buy silver. You can hold silver in an IRA.
2. Buy CEF. Central Fund of Canada, ticker symbol CEF. It's gold/silver bullion fund. It has 50 oz. of silver for every 1 oz. of gold. The fund is fairly liquid, you can buy it as easily as any other stock, and is a good cash substitute. Unfortunately, given the current ratio, about 55% or more of the value is in gold.
3. Buy a fairly large cap silver stock, with fairly large volume, that is still fairly cheap on the list. SSRI is probably the best candidate.
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The sheer stupidity of big money not recognizing the value of the world's remaining silver is utterly shocking to the rational mind. Clearly, bond holders are utterly deceived, and totally unaware of the situation. All my readers should understand and know that bonds were originally invented to suck the capital and money (gold and silver) away from the people. Bonds today are a paper promise to repay paper. What a con game! Are bond holders conservative and safe? No, they are fools! There is nothing safe about holding a paper promise to receive more paper when we have been experiencing hyperinflation for the past two and a half years!
See my prior essay, " Inflation & Deflation During Hyperinflation "
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And the fund investors who buy paper silver futures contracts instead of real silver are a very odd bunch of fools, for they should realize that nobody can deliver 800+ million ounces of silver promised in the paper contracts and options that does not exist. It's like the paper longs are betting on the bank run happening, but they all are making sure they get at the end of the long line. Instead, they could go front and center, where there is an open window available where you can go and get physical silver, and nobody is there. Idiots! If you know a bank run is going to happen, and you are actually willing to bet on it, then go and withdraw your money before it is too late! Don't bet on it happening, which, if it does happen, your contracts will be defaulted on! Amazingly blind idiots. Wake up!
See also my prior essay, "The Moral Failures of the Paper Longs"
----------------------------
How bullish am I on silver? Here's an interesting way to put it: "68 times infinity" dollars per ounce.
I believe the dollar will eventually be destroyed, likely within my lifetime, hence the "infinity" part. I believe the ratio of silver to gold may be equal during a spike, when the market realizes that above-ground refined silver is more rare than gold. Thus, silver may outperform gold by a factor of 68 times better. Currently, the ratio is 68 ounces of silver can buy one ounce of gold or 68:1.
I may end up selling silver for gold, some at the 10:1 silver to gold ratio, some more at 5:1, and I would sell any silver remaining at a 1:1 ratio, that we may hit during a supply/demand crunch during a paper money collapse.
How we can tell if silver is leading gold, or if gold is leading silver? IE, which is going up more, faster than the other? The way you can tell is by looking at the ratio. If the silver:gold ratio is going up (say, from 60:1 to 80:1), then gold is moving up faster (because it takes 5 more silver oz. to buy an oz. of gold. If the ratio is going down (from 60:1 to 40:1), then silver is moving up faster. So, keep an eye on the ratio.
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For a list of bullion dealers:
http://www.goldismoney.com/buy-gold.php
For a list of Brokers that handle Canadian issues and/or pink sheets:
http://www.bibleprophesy.org/SilverStockExtra.html
To track the 163 ticker symbols of the 100+ stocks on this list at yahoo: (Updated on April 2)
http://www.bibleprophesy.org/SilverStockExtra.html
To learn All about Canadian law, 43-101, about reserves and resources:
http://www.bcsc.bc.ca/Publications/mineral_projects_sept03.pdf
A good website that hosts posting boards for many of the smaller canadian stocks (that Yahoo! finance does not have boards for) is stockhouse.com
Click on "Bullboards".
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This is a list of primary silver stocks.
I count a company's ounces of gold as 10 oz of silver. Why? Because I have a very strong positive bias in favor of silver over gold.
Given my bias in favor of much, much higher silver prices, then, to me, the grades of silver are far less important than buying more oz. in the ground. More oz. in the ground at a lower cost is the most important consideration for me.
My method is simple. Cost per ounce in the ground. How much do you get (silver reserve totals), and how much does it cost (market cap)? The cost is the market cap divided by the silver reserve totals. Cheaper is better. Buy low, sell high.
Disclaimers, Warnings, and Advice: I have gathered the information below over the course of several months. I believe it is accurate to the best of my ability. I have made mistakes in the data from time to time. I'm human. I have collected the information from public sources such as company web sites and public information found at yahoo.com to get the stock prices. This report in no way guarantees the accuracy of the information below, since the information may change at any time. The number of outstanding shares can change as a company engages in new share issues to raise more capital through private placements, or if outstanding warrants (and options) are exercised and converted into shares, or if shares are bought back. Shares can be consolidated, or split. The number of ounces of silver in the ground can also change, as these are often only estimates. The number can also change up or down, depending on drilling results.
This report is not investment advice. This report contains information that may or may not be up to date, and may be inaccurate. I urge you to contact the company and do your own research to verify the information contained in this report.
This report is not an offer to buy or sell any securities. I am not a broker. Only your broker can buy or sell securities for you.
I urge you to consult with your investment advisor to determine whether these kinds of investments are right for you.
I also caution you to be aware of your investment advisor's advice, they are sometimes paid to push things like mutual funds, bonds and other securities that may not be in your best interest to buy. Some investment houses are short physical metal, and thus, they may attempt to strongly discourage you from buying precious metal or precious metals investments. I believe that the propaganda machine in support of frauds such as bonds and the dollar is so strong, that they may even believe what they say when they give bad advice to avoid the safety and protection of precious metals. It is most likely that they simply do not understand the precious metals market as well as you do.
All total estimates of "ounces in the ground" can vary widely. There are "proven and probable reserves" which are the highest category of certainty which is obtained through many drill holes, and then at the least accurate, there are "inferred resources" which are hardest to estimate. Additionally, every miner always has "more silver properties that need to be explored, which probably contain more silver". For the purposes of this report, I have added all those numbers together. It is believed that all these "ounce in the ground" estimates can be profitably mined at $5-6 per ounce silver, or lower. Thus, I believe that when silver trades for $15/oz. or above, that all of these ounces can be mined at a substantial profit.
I may be wrong. (I probably make mistakes in every article, and there have been updates and corrections made each week, especially as prices change.)
Mining is a risky business. You need to be willing to sustain a total loss of your investment for various unforeseen accidents. Silver stock companies can do stupid things to shareholders such as take on debt, or issue more stock at too low prices which reduces the percentage of the company you may own (dilution). Yet, they need to issue shares to raise capital for drilling, and then an even bigger dilution to build a working mine. They may sell YOUR silver too cheaply, or worse, hedge the price of YOUR silver just as it begins to go up if they lock in a price which then proves to be too low if the dollar is destroyed. Mining is a risky business as estimates of assets in the ground can change. There is political risk and environmental risk. They can't franchise the business, are stuck in one location, are subject to government confiscation, or taxes, or union wage negotiations, and corporate looting.
Do your own research. Be responsible for your own investment decisions. Again, please, before investing in a mining company, call up the company, and speak either with the CEO or the Investor Relations contact person.
So, at the very least, check the company web site, read the annual reports, check my numbers, check my math, and email the company. That's what they are there for, to answer your questions, and to speak about the opportunity of the company. Don't trust everything you read over the internet. I am a biased source. I own silver mining stocks. And I'm not a broker, nor an investment advisor. I'm just a private investor trying to make sense of this crazy world, and sharing my information and thoughts on silver companies.
Surely, there are scammers in the mining industry in the past, and there will be scammers in the future. Remember the fraud of Bre-X. The new 43-101 compliance laws put in place after Bre-X will not prevent a "certified" geologist from lying if he feels lying will create a better payoff. The Bible warns, "trust no man", yet at the same time advises us to "cast our bread upon the waters", and to not issue "false allegations" against others. Physical gold and silver provide the "payment in full" as long as the coins or bars themselves are genuine and not fake.
This report may be copied, and transmitted by other people, and may become outdated by the time it reaches you.
I can't tell you how you should invest your money, of course. The reason is that I don't know how convinced you are of the silver bull market, nor do I know how soon you will be needing the money back, so I don't know how long you can wait to see results, nor do I know how much liquidity you need. Nor do I know the size of the money you have to invest. It is very hard to invest large quantities of money in a small market cap stock.
That being said, my investment strategy seems to be working for me, so far. And so, here is how I have valued the following silver companies to make my own investment decisions.
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(Market cap is always converted to US dollars and denominated in US dollars because I divide by ounces of silver, which are also denominated in dollars)
The Market Cap is the usual tool to value a company. It is what the company "costs to buy" if you could buy the entire company, all the shares, at the latest share price. It is calculated by multiplying the share price, by the total number of shares that the company has issued. In reality, you could almost never buy an entire company at the price of the Market Cap, but only a small portion. Usually, even small buying pressure, such as trying to buy 1% of a company, can push up the price of a stock by up to 10-50% higher. In my reports, I list Market Cap in terms of millions of dollars as "$75 mil MC".
To calculate the Market Cap, I try to get and use the number of "fully diluted shares". A company creates shares when they sell them to investors in what are called "private placements", or "initial public offerings" (IPO). These usually consist of shares and warrants, sold for cash that the company will need to grow and expand.
The "outstanding shares" is the number of shares that exist out there if you count them all, and it does not count the warrants, which are like options. The investor can "exercise the warrants" which is a right, but not an obligation, to buy more shares from the company at the set price of the warrant.
If the company does well, and the stock price moves up, all the warrants will be, or should be, exercised and converted into shares, especially if they become "in the money", and the warrants are significantly cheaper than the stock price.
Now, "fully diluted shares" is the total number of shares, plus the warrants, counting warrants as if they were all exercised and became fully trading shares. I think "fully diluted shares" is a better number to use to calculate market cap than by using "outstanding shares" as most do.
Finally, I go beyond valuing a company based on Market Cap alone; instead, I value a company by dividing the Market Cap by the assets of the company, which are usually the silver reserves in the ground. Thus, I can get a sense of what you are getting for what you are paying. And then, I denominate the whole thing in terms of silver, and not dollars, to get a more constant measure.
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(These first four companies, BHP, GMBXF.PK, KGHM and BVN produce a lot of silver, but are way to expensive to buy for the silver exposure for your portfolio.)
BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP)
http://www.bhpbilliton.com/
--'produces 40 mil oz. silver annually from one mine'
Additional comments: unfortunately, BHP has a 53 Billion market cap, so we can't buy BHP for the silver exposure. IE, $53 Billion / oh, say, 1000 million?????= $53/oz.
Dear BHP: By all means, keep mining the silver if you want the silver exposure, and want to be in the silver business. But don't sell the silver. Keep it. Let the profits of your entire company accrue as an increasing physical supply of physical silver. In fact, do as Buffett did, and buy more silver if you can. It would be infinitely easier for you to buy silver from yourself than it would be to buy 40 million ounces of silver from the COMEX, which, today, might be impossible.
Grupo Mexico SA de CV (GMBXF.PK)
http://www.gmexico.com/indexi.html
651,646,640 shares (2002 annual report)
@ $4.00/share
$2606 mil MC
"Grupo Mexico ranks as the world's third largest copper producer (copper at $1.24), fourth largest producer of silver and fifth largest producer of zinc."
They produced 28.2 million oz. of silver, worth $129 million, in 2002. (P. 5, annual report.)
Total value of produced metals: $2527 milllion. (but the company lost money in 2002). They mainly produce copper, 900,000 tons worth $1.5 billion in 2002. Thus, silver, at 2002 prices, is only 5% of their production value. Silver is a by-product for them, not a main product.
I don't have silver reserve figures, nor do I see any need to find them or add them, since they are not a primary silver producer, and I don't think anybody would be buying them for the "silver exposure".
If we assume 280 mil oz. of silver (ten years reserve for production), then we still don't have anything exciting for the silver alone.
$2085 mil MC / 280 = $7.45/oz. cost.
KGHM Polska Miedz
http://www.kghm.pl/en/index.php
--KGHM is the world`s sixth-largest copper producer and second or third in silver.
1163 tonnes of silver produced in 2001.
1163 x 32152oz.tonne = 37.4 million ounces of silver produced in 2001
--Copper/Silver mine in Poland.
--Market capitalisation is about $1.52 billion.
Compania de Minas Buenaventura SA (BVN)
http://www.buenaventura.com/
NYSE:BVN
- Peru´s largest publicly traded precious metals company
--produces over 10 mil oz of silver per year
--looks way too expensive for the silver alone: 3.6 Billion market cap.
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ABX (Barrick)
http://www.barrick.com/
535 million shares outstanding (not fully diluted)
@ $20.23/share
$10,823 million Market Cap
5.5 million oz. / year gold production.
--production hedged out for 3 years, or about 18 million oz. (most notorious hedger of the industry, the "leader")
--price of hedges locked in near the market lows, perhaps $340/oz. on average, nobody knows for sure, because Barrick will not say
--reportedly, Barrick is trying to "unhedge".
--reportedly, they plan to deliver 1/3 of production to hedges, which means they will be hedge free in about 10 years.
--the size of the hedge, 18 mil oz. gold, at $400/oz., would be valued at $7.2 billion dollars. At $500/oz, it's $9 billion.
--but they claim to be "debt free", if you ignore the gold they owe for delivery, at locked in, low prices. (only true if gold is not money)
--cash "rich" of about $1 billion dollars.
Silver Reserves reported to be 850 million ounces!
Gold Reserves reported to be 86 million oz. (x 10 = 860 mil oz. + 850 silver = 1710 mil oz. "silver equiv."
$10,823 million Market Cap / 1710 mil oz. = $6.33/oz. silver
You get "approx" .91 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Over the years, Barrick has hedged their production, which many claim has helped to depress the price of gold and silver, by artificially adding to supply. (Barrick's promises becoming the extra supply.) The declining price of the precious metals has put other miners out of business, which Barrick has acquired at low prices. If Barrick goes bankrupt due to their hedges, and rising gold and silver prices, then perhaps Barrick's many properties will, once again, be sold at distressed prices.
Barrick boasts a "cash cost" of $189/oz., for gold for 2003, yet their cash has dropped from $2 billion down to $1 billion. It could be due to the hedging, locking in precious metals prices at low prices, and/or hedge covering that explains the monetary loss in the light of their low cash costs.
About a year ago, perhaps spring 2003, ABX made an announcement about covering 30 million ounces of silver they sold short. Then, a large buyer showed up in the futures contracts for about that amount. I do not know whether, or how, that has yet been resolved.
I don't really count Barrick as a silver company, but it's listed here for comparison's sake, and due to popular/continuous demand.
I expect silver bullion to continue to outperform ABX stock at these prices.
CDE (COEUR D'ALENE)
http://www.coeur.com
coeurir@coeur.com (208) 769-8155 or (800) 624-2824
214 mil shares outstanding (June 2004) not fully diluted
@ $4.47/share
$957 mil MC
"Current cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments stand at approximately $252.7 million at January 31, 2004, giving effect to recent $180 million offering of 1.25% Senior Convertible Notes due 2024, net of offering costs."
"At the beginning of 2004, silver reserves totaled 175 million ounces and gold reserves 1.4 million ounces."
175 + 14 = 189
(Produced 14.2 mil oz. silver in latest fiscal year (early 2004)
$957 mil MC / 189 mil oz = $5.06/oz.
You get "approx" 1.14 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Wheaton recommends rejecting the CDE buy out offer:
Wheaton Does not Intend to Pursue the Coeur D'alene Mines Proposal: Recommends Shareholders Vote IAMGold Combination
Monday May 31
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040531/315071_1.html
Interestingly, as one reason, Wheaton says: CDE has a history of losses and negative operating cash flow.
Last week, I noted that Cour tried to raise up to $150 million recently, by issuing stock, or various methods of financing. I was referring to their press release in Dec. 03 here:
Dec.11.03Coeur Announces Filing of 'Universal Shelf' Registration Statement
As it turns out, I was right, they did not sell significant amounts of stock since then. I note in my past reports that they had 210 million shares outstanding at that time, and now are up to about 214 million shares outstanding. This was probably the result of warrants that had previously been issued, being converted. So, without issuing shares, instead, they succeeded in offering bonds.
Jan.13.04Coeur Announces Closing of Its $180 Million Convertible Notes Offering
I believe these events go to show that their stock is overvalued. They were unable to raise $150 million by offering stock. Instead, they had to borrow $180 million, and are now in debt. This is why it makes sense, for CDE, to offer stock for acquisitions. At least this way, they can get something for their shares, that I feel, are overvalued.
Quarterly Loss Reduced From $31.2 Million a Year Ago to Just $3.0 Million in 2004's First Quarter
As of May 5th, CDE announced: No silver or gold hedge positions in place.
For the full year 2003, the Company reported a net loss of $67.0 million, or $0.40 per share, compared to a net loss of $81.2 million, or $1.04 per share in 2002.
Why does CDE continue to mine and sell silver at a loss? Why has CDE borrowed $180 million to continue expanding this business plan? Why couldn't CDE have raised the money from issuing more shares? Why has CDE stock increased from about 30 million shares outstanding at the end of 1999 to 214 million shares outstanding by the first quarter 2004? How was CDE able to secure such favorable terms for a loan? "giving effect to recent $180 million offering of 1.25% Senior Convertible Notes due 2024, net of offering costs."" Who did CDE borrow money from? Who stants to gain if CDE continues to produce silver at a loss?
If CDE produced silver at a loss during the first quarter 2004, how much money will they make if silver hits $10/oz? Perhaps the break-even price for production is a constant $8.00/oz.? Regardless of their "cash cost" numbers. If so, and if CDE produces 15 million oz. of silver per year, then at $10/oz., CDE may make up to $30 million dollars, at the most, from their silver production, if none of their other costs like energy costs rise in price due to inflation. Mining uses a lot of energy, just so that you know, so I don't think it is likely that CDE will have profits even with higher silver prices in the $8-10 range due to inflation. Given that CDE has a market cap of up to $1000 million dollars, CDE just is not worth it at all, in my opinion. And neither would CDE stock be worth the price if they had a market cap of $300 million, in my opinion. I would rather own silver, as it moved in price from $6 to $10. And in the meantime, CDE may well move in price from $6.49/share down to $2.16/share (assuming no further dilution, and a reduction to a more reasonable $333 million market cap), and by then, with silver at $10, CDE may have a P/E ratio of 10, and a huge heavy debt load of $180 million dollars that may take up to 6 years of possible profits to pay off. So, in my view, CDE would not even be worth $2.16/share even if silver prices were at $10/oz. If both those prices were hit simultaneously, so that CDE stock had a 66% loss, and silver bullion had a 40% gain, assuming no further dilution, it would create a resource valuation/calculation as follows:
$333 mil MC / 189 mil oz. = $1.76/oz. = You'd get about 5.68 oz. of silver for each silver oz. worth of stock.
This week on Monday afternoon, I posted a few comments to the CDE board at Yahoo! Finance, starting with message number Msg: 83207. You can read a few of them here:
http://messages.yahoo.com/?action=q&board=CDE
Interestingly, as I was posting, Wheaton River came out with a press release saying they were rejecting CDE's bid, in part, because CDE has a history of operating at a loss.
Coeur Increases Merger Proposal for Wheaton River by C$0.50 (US$0.37) per Share Thursday June 3
I expect silver bullion to continue to outperform CDE stock at these prices.
IPOAF.PK (INDUSTL PENOLES)
http://www.penoles.com.mx
397.5 mil shares outstanding (2002 annual, unchanged since 2001)
@ $3.55/share
$1411 mil MC
419 proven and probable reserves of silver (from 2002 annual report on website)
$1411 mil MC / 419 oz. silver = $3.37/oz.
You get "approx" 1.72 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Industrias Penoles is the world's top producer of refined silver. They actually derrive more revenue from silver than any other source. But they lost money in 2002.
The word late Feb. 2004 from ECU Mini, who reported to lemetropolecafe.com, is that Penoles has hedged several year's worth of silver, that is, they have locked in to sell mostly all their silver at low prices. Set when prices were lower. How much lower, and at what price, is anyone's guess. As reported at lemetropolecafe.com, "We know the market is so tight even the world’s largest silver producer, Mexico’s Penolas, wasn’t thrilled about supplying 1 million ounces for a special project with ECU Silver, led by their extremely able CEO Michel Roy."
78.5 million oz. silver refined by the metals division in 2002, and 1 mil oz. gold.
They probably refine almost all the silver that comes out of Mexico.
They probably produce about 34 mil oz. of silver from their mines annually, and they have expansion plans.
I've heard this stock is tightly held, most is family owned.
Their oz. numbers are "proven & probable reserves", which is much more certain than most of the others which are mostly "inferred and indicated resources." They undoubtedly have "inferred and indicated resources" in addition to the "proven & probable reserves," I just could not find any info on that at the website or in the annual report.
Given the report in March, 2004, that Penoles has hedged silver for two years, I expect silver bullion to continue to outperform IPOAF.PK stock at these prices.
SIL (APEX SILVER)
http://www.apexsilver.com/
information@apexsilver.com (303) 839-5060
47.4 million shares outstanding (late May, 2004) (not fully diluted)
(derrived from share price & market cap, late May, 2004)
@ $17.60/share
$834 mil MC
cash on hand: $350 million after Jan 30th share offering, and March 16th convertable debenture.
San Cristobal (Bolivia) (proven & probably reserves) 454 mil silver
(forecast capital costs for construction to total approximately $435 million)
(Produced zero silver in 2002)
7.8 billion pounds of zinc, and 2.9 billion pounds of lead
$834 mil MC / 454 mil oz = $1.84/oz.
You get "approx" 3.14 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Apex may also have up to 35-50 exploration properties.
March 16th, Apex raises $144 million in a convertable debenture deal to help finance the development of San Cristobal. They now have 350/435, or 80.4% of the capital costs needed for construction. Raising the last bit should now be very easy to do. If, while raising money, they held their cash in the form of silver bullion, they would probably not need to raise any more cash at this point, since silver has moved up over 50%.
Apex is now the most cash rich silver stock on the list. About $350 million! In this report, for weeks, I have been urging Apex to buy silver bullion with their cash. And I know many investors have contacted Apex about buying silver bullion in the last 6 months.
I spoke with Igor, at investor relations about this topic at the San Francisco Gold show in November, 2003, and again at the NY Gold show in June, 2004. For the record, Apex plans to not develop theirSan Cristobal project until 2007! Therefore, they will be holding $350 million in the form of paper cash, and not silver, until then. This is an extremely stupid plan, in my opinion, and I asked Igor about it.
I asked Igor if he was considering buying silver bullion with their cash, while they wait. Astonishingly, Igor asked me, "Would you defend us from shareholder lawsuits if we did so?" I couldn't believe it, but this answer goes to show Igor's mindset on the subject. If anything, I think shareholders should sue Apex if they don't use silver bullion as money, but that's my mindset!
I asked Igor, "If you believe silver is money (and he said he did), then for what company in the world would it make the most sense for them to acutally hold silver as money?" Igor responded, "I can't speak for other companies."
I said, "Wrong, and that's exactly my point. A major silver company should be a leader, and show leadership, by using silver as money as an example, to show the other companies of the world that yes, it does make sense to use and hold silver as money."
Igor's mindset is also reflected by two other comments he said to me. Igor said he gets 5-6 ideas each day from shareholders, and he obviously cannot persue them all. This goes to show that he does not even remotely consider this as a viable or valid idea.
Next, Igor also indicated to me that he felt that if he "spent" his cash on silver bullion, that he would not have anything left to develop his project, or that he would not be able to develop his project. This, again, goes to show his mindset, and the ridiculous attitude he has towards silver bullion. His comment shows does not really consider silver bullion to be money at all, but rather, only a consumer good. Igor's comments indicated to me that he felt that that once silver is purchased, the "money" is gone forever.
Finally, Igor also said that he had over 90% shareholder approval for the company's existing plans, and that, therefore, there is no reason or need to change anything. He said this as if 90% of existing shareholders somehow specifically expressed an interest in the company holding and keeping paper money cash in the banks, in preference to holding silver bullion. What nonesense!
The last thing I said to Igor was that he should at least let the shareholders decide whether to hold paper cash, or silver bullion, for the next 2-3 years while the company waits to develop their project. I said to put it to the shareholders for a vote. He said he had no intention of doing so, again, because of existing shareholder approval rates for the company's current plans.
I think Igor was an arrogant, stupid man. But, in his defense, most shareholders of Apex are probably just as stupid, and have no interest in protecting their cash from a rapid devaluation as silver prices rise. I honestly think Igor is right, in that their institutional shareholders would not approve such a move to hold silver bullion in preference to hold ing cash.
For the record, Apex has $350 million in cash. The available silver at the COMEX in the registered category, under 47 million ounces, at $6/oz, is only worth $282 million dollars.
In my opinion, the board of directors, over at Apex, are mentally asleep, and had better wake up.
Furthermore, Apex's key project has severe developmental problems/challenges to overcome. They may need a few years, just to figure out how to solve them.
I used to be a rather large shareholder of Apex, back in 2002. That was back when I was repeatedly told that there were really only 5 silver companies to choose from: PAAS, SSRI, SIL (Apex), CDE and HL. At that time, I decided to avoid CDE and HL because of their debt situations, and I chose to diversify into PAAS, SSRI, and SIL (Apex). Of course, this report on over 100 silver stocks blows away that market myth that there are only 5 silver companies. Now, I'm not telling anyone what to do, but if I still had shares of Apex, and after the conversation I had with Igor, I would sell Apex with reckless abandon, without any further questions, without any reservation. I'd even sell with a market order.
But please understand my bias and emotional state. I was quite angry at Igor after my conversation with him. And, of course, one should never let emotions get in the way of trading decisions. Let's give Apex the benefit of the doubt for a second. It is quite possible that Igor was intentionally misleading me, in order to allow him to go into the market to buy silver bullion undetected. After all, nobody should telegraph to the market, in advance, their trading decisions, as I well know, and even teach. But my understanding of human nature tells me that this is not likely the case here, unfortunately. Apex is definitely against buying silver bullion, at this point in time.
Apex silver primarily has institutional investors.
Apex has a lot of zinc. That's an added bonus that is not factored in to my method of valuation. Zinc prices have been heading up soon, so that's another bonus. Plenty of zinc is especially good if zinc is moving up in price. Zinc hit a recent high of $.51/lb., from a low of about $.35/lb., currently at $.47. For zinc prices, see http://www.metalprices.com
Apex is not mining now, but are waiting for higher silver prices. George Soros, Billionaire, owns a bit of this one, just under 10% I read recently. That's another plus, in general, for the silver market if Billionaires are paying attention to it. There are several other zinc / silver plays on this list that investors might also consider: Canadian Zinc, Expatriate, or Metalline (I own Metalline, but not SIL.)
I do not have an idea on whether or not SIL will out perform silver bullion or not. It's hard to say, because of that huge zinc bonus. I expect most of the other stocks on this list to outperform or significantly outperform silver bullion in the long run from today's prices.
GRS GAM.TO (GAMMON LAKE)
http://www.gammonlake.com/
gammonl@sprint.ca (902) 468-0614
62 mil shares Fully Diluted: (Feb 27th, 2004)
@ $6.86/share
$425 mil MC
Total Ocampo Inferred: 1,124,000 oz. gold, 50,438,000 oz. silver
Silver equiv = 11.24 mil oz. + 50.44 mil oz. = 62 mil oz.
Total Ocampo Measured & Indicated 2,207,800 oz. gold, 108,438,000 oz. silver
Silver equiv = 22 mil oz. + 108 mil oz. = 130 mil oz.
Total Ocampo Measured & Indicated plus Inferred = 182 mil oz.
Gammon owns 26.3% of Mexgold, MGR
Since Mexgold owns 185 mil oz. of "target exploration potential", 26.3% of that is 48.6 mil oz.
182 + 49 = 231 mil oz.
$425 mil MC / 231 mil oz.= $1.84/oz.
You get "approx" 3.14 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
**Note** most of Mexgold's oz. that are added in are an "exploration target" not yet "inferred resources".
Additional comments: Drill results released Jan 7th: http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/040107/gammon_lk_drill_rslts_1.html
At current prices of a 64:1 silver:gold ratio at $425/oz gold and $6.60/oz silver, the resources are worth $1048 million of silver, and $1411 million worth of gold. Cash cost is $85/oz. Life of mine is 7 years.
FSR.TO FSLVF.PK (FIRST SILVER)
http://www.firstsilver.com/
info@firstsilver.com (604) 602-9973 or (888) 377-6676
38.6 mil shares fully diluted (Jan 2004)
@ $1.88/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $1.39 US
$54 mil MC
From the Company's main page at their url:
"As at December 31, 2001, First Silver's mineable reserves were 12 million ounces of silver and inferred resources totaled 30 million ounces of silver. The mine is developing a 1000 plus meter exploration drift to upgrade currently identified inferred resources to mineable ore reserves and to discover new reserves."
12 + 30 = 42 mil oz.
$54 mil MC / 42 mil oz. = $1.28/oz.
You get "approx" 4.52 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: This is a high grade, producing miner. The high grades, about 300g/ton, are a plus. They are also actively exploring, another plus.
3rd quarter, 2003, FSR.TO produced 389,154 oz. silver, and 604 oz. gold. and revenue was $2.09 million for the 3rd quarter. They produced at a loss, (a penny per share). They are unhedged, and remain committed to remaining unhedged.
CFTN.PK (CLIFTON MINING)
http://www.cliftonmining.com/
clifton@cliftonmining.com 801-756-1414 (303) 642-0659 Ken Friedman
47 mil shares fully diluted (May 2004)
@ $.98/share US
$46 mil MC
http://www.cliftonmining.com/wsreview.htm --source of 100 mil oz. resources est.
http://www.cliftonmining.com/resource.htm
From: http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/subject.gsp?subjectid=13531
"A previous geologist has talked about a possible resource of 1 billion oz. of silver, and 5 million oz. of gold."
100 mil oz. silver
+500,000 oz. gold x 10 = 5 mil oz. silver equiv.
= 105 mil oz. silver.
up to 1000 mil oz. silver "exploration potential".
Clifton has a complex JV agreement with Dumont Nickel. In sum, here is what Keith Moeller VP, Clifton Mining Company wrote to me: "If Dumont produces a positive feasibility study on an individual property piece, then they gain a 50% interest in that piece alone, not in the rest of the property. If they spend more than 5 million dollars (US) on any one piece and they produce a positive feasibility study on that piece, then they will gain a 60% interest in that one piece of property, not in the rest. If they stop at any time or fail to produce a positive feasibility, then they will gain no interest in any of our property. Right now we have around 7 different pieces of the property that have "Stand Alone" mine potential. If Dumont stakes or purchases any property within five miles of the joint venture property, then we automatically receive a 50% interest in that property."
My problem is how to quantify that. First, there is the range of potential silver resources. Second, there is the range of potential ownership, which is highly variable, and not subject to the entire property, nor necessarily subject to spending by Dumont, but subject mostly to Dumont doing a positive feasibility study on each of many properties . At the extreme ranges, the values are:
40% to 100% of 105 = 42 - 105 million oz.
40% to 100% of 1000 = 400 - 1000 mil oz. "exploration potential"
$46 mil MC / 42 mil oz. = $1.10/oz.
$46 mil MC / 1000 mil oz. = $.046/oz.
You get "approx" 5.27 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
Exploration Potential: 125
Additional comments: Note the "exploration potential" is very large.
Perhaps an interesting and novel way to determine percentage ownership of the projects would be to look at the relative market caps for both Clifton, and Dumont, and then assume that the market has it "about right", and then use thier relative values to determine a possible percentage ownership. And then, simply decide to own both, keeping your percentage ownership of each company, about the same.
JV agreements were primarily entered into during a time when it was difficult to raise money through share offerings, as a way to advance the projects. Unfortunately, JV agreements also make it a nightmare for investors to value a company! Several companies at the NY Gold show in June were just completing buyout agreements (or working on doing so) with their JV partners.
For more info on what's going on with Clifton, see http://www.dumontnickel.com , JV partner. One man suggested buying both Clifton and Dumont to ease the difficulty in trying to figure out their JV agreement.
Clifton has 25% ownership of a biotech firm that makes a colloidal silver. The biotech firm has a patent on a "super" colloidal silver solution made with 10,000 volts that adds oxygen that gives it more powerful antibacterial properties, and is safer since it uses less silver, which would prevent "blue skin" argyria. Normal colloidal silver that you can make at home with 30 volts works to kill bacteria by disrupting the oxygen metabolism of the cell wall, killing bacteria with oxygen. The market for safe antibiotics is in the multi Billions of dollars.
See the human study data released on their colloidal silver product:
Clifton Mining Company - New Human Study Data Released
ABL signs a contract with GNC. (April) Clifton's biofirm's colloidal silver product will be on the shelves of this mass market health food and fitness stores, GNC. Congradulations to Clifton!
PAAS (PAN AMERICAN SILVER)
http://panamericansilver.com/
info@panamericansilver.com (604) 684 -1175
70 mil shares fully diluted (April, 2004)
http://panamericansilver.com/s/CorporateInformation.asp?ReportID=26039
@ $13.26/share
$928 mil MC
10 silver properties (3 in production)
produced 7 mil oz. silver in 2001:
Reserves & Resources through Dec. 11th, 2003 from
http://panamericansilver.com/s/ReservesAndResources.asp?ReportID=25303
743.2 million total
$928 mil MC / 743 mil oz. = $1.25/oz.
You get "approx" 4.63 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional Comments: Pan American of Canada buys Morococha silver mine in Peru for US$35 million This $35 million acquisition is a great deal for PAAS, and a minor help for PAAS shareholders. According to the press release above, the silver mine produced 3.5 million ounces of silver a year, at a cash cost of $3/oz., which is great! At $6.50/oz, that's $3.5 x 3.5 mil oz. = $12.25 million per year profit after cash costs! That gives the acquisition a P/E ratio for the mine's acquisiton cost of under 3! What a deal!
Unfortunately, PAAS shareholders are paying way above that when they buy the stock today. After this acquisition, PAAS should have a "2004 silver production forecast to 13 million ounces from 10.1 million ounces and will reduce forecast cash costs to below $ 3.50/oz, bringing anticipated total costs to less than $4/oz for the year." Now, at $6.50/oz, that's $2.5 x 13 mil oz. = $32.5 million per year profit, after cash costs. That gives a P/E ratio for PAAS of about $1000 / $32 = 31. Therefore, considering the two P/E ratios, 31 compared to under 3, PAAS stock is over ten times overvalued compared to other silver mining opportunities that exist in the market, such as the property they just purchased.
After I have been harranging PAAS in these reports for being in debt for months, they finally rid themselves of their debt by converting their debentures.
Pan American completes successful debenture conversion and repays all its bank debt Tuesday May 25
PAAS "proudly" reports having $120 million in paper cash, most of which it has had now for over 6 months--ever since they went into debt by $90 million. They still refuse to recognize that silver is money, and they refuse to hold their money in the form of silver.
What if your silver company decides to lock in silver prices at $8, and hedge years of production to "protect the shareholders and provide exposure to the high $8/oz. price," only to watch silver prices head past $25 and past $50/oz? Your stock could get wiped out in bankruptcy, and your investment could go to zero value! This is the danger of stocks! Your investment is subject to the whims of management!
WARNING: PAAS says at their website that they will hedge silver, in order to finance mine construction.
http://panamericansilver.com/s/CorporateProfile.asp
"Pan American is loath to give away the upside on any of its silver production, especially at current low metal prices, and will do so only to the minimum extent required as a condition of prudent mine financing."
My opinion is that it is NEVER prudent to go into debt, or lock in silver prices to finance a mine. If PAAS cannot raise capital on the markets by issuing shares, then they should not be financing new mine construction. If the market will not support new mine construction, then the market does not need more silver. PAAS and CDE should learn to trust the free market process, and avoid debt.
MFN MFL.TO (MINEFINDERS)
http://www.minefinders.com/
34.1 mil Shares Fully Diluted (Late 2003?)
@ $7.04/share
$240 mil MC
Cash on hand, Fully Diluted: C$34 million
"over 3.5 mil ounces of gold resource and 160 mil ounces of silver" --Dec. '03
silver conversion = 3.5 x 10 = 35 mil + 160 mil oz. silver = 195 mil oz. silver
At 70:1 ratio, 3.5 x 70 = 245 "silver equiv" of gold, and 160 mil of silver = 405.
245/405 = 61% of the mineral value is in the gold, 39% silver.
At 10:1 ratio, 35/195 = 18% of the mineral value is in the gold, 82% silver.
"In addition to the resources already drilled, Minefinders controls a strong portfolio of properties in Nevada, Arizona, and Mexico which have the potential to host new multi-million ounce discoveries over the next few years."
$240 mil MC / 195 mil oz. = $1.23/oz.
You get "approx" 4.69 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
Additional Comments: At 70:1 silver to gold ratio, over half of MFN is in gold, so consider this a significant gold bonus. MFN also now lists their resource figures on their website's main page. I'm sure investors appreciate this. I do.
KBR.V KBRRF.PK (KIMBER RSCS)
http://www.kimberresources.com
info@kimberresources.com (604) 669-2251
31.2 mil shares fully diluted (Jan 20, 2004)
http://www.kimberresources.com/sharestructure.html
@ $1.60/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = US $1.18
$37 mil MC
from http://www.smartstox.com/reports/kbr.pdf
30 mil oz. silver resources Measured & indicated, plus inferred
540,000 oz. gold x 10 = 5.4 mil "silver equiv."
$37 mil MC / 35.4 mil oz. = $1.04/oz.
You get "approx" 5.54 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Kimber Reports Significant Drill Hole On Carmen Deposit
A one property company. The Carmen gold-silver deposit on their Monterde property in the Sierra Madre belt of Chihuahua State, Mexico. Significant exploration potential.
It was reported by a press release that 16%-17% of KBR.V is owned by silver bull Jim Puplava of http://www.financialsense.com, which I think is a rather solid endorsement of the company.
WTZ WTC.TO (WESTERN SILVER) (formerly western copper)
http://www.westernsilvercorp.com
info@westernsilvercorp.com Jay Oness Toll Free: 1-888-456-1112
43.3 mil fully diluted (April 2004)
@ $6.48/share
$280 mil MC
(not actively mining)
$14 million Cdn in cash in the till (2 mil + 12 mil financing) no debt
From the "SNC Lavalin Resource Calculation" March, 2003.
Indicated 158.8 mil oz. silver
Inferred 54.6 mil oz. silver
Total 213.4 oz. silver.
Total 1.94 oz. gold x 10 (at 10:1) = 19.4 silver equiv.
The capital cost to get the mine going is estimated to be US $148 million
Western Silver Completes Pre-Feasibility Study on Chile Colorado Zone at Penasquito
New info: 267 mil oz. silver at a grade of just over 1 oz. per tonne. (an increase of 54 mil oz. over previous est.)
Brechia zone will double the numbers, and infilling inferred to indicated: probably in Jan will have 500 mil oz. silver, 5 mil oz gold.
Exploration potential: 500 mil oz. silver, 5 mil oz. gold, from
http://www.mips1.net/mgn03.nsf/UNID/SBAY-5SUBN6
Plus, they have two other zones that could each duplicate the success of each of the other two. So up to a Billion... oz. of silver as "exploration potential"!
Feasibility: 2006-7 production timeline.
$280 mil MC / 287 oz. = $.98/oz.
$280 mil MC / 1000 oz. = $.28/oz. --exploration potential
You get "approx" 5.91 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Exploration Potential = 21
Additional comments: Western Silver was formerly Western Copper... Copper now at $1.35/lb!
Note the capital cost to get the mining started: $148 million dollars.
WTZ also has the following other metal resources:
3.73 billion pounds of zinc x .50/lb = $1865 million
673 million pounds of copper x $1.30/lb = $874 million
1.3 billion pounds of lead x .40/lb = $520 million
MGR.V MGRSF.PK (MEXGOLD RSCS)
http://www.mexgold.com/
52.5 mil fully diluted (spring 2004)
@ $4.25/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $3.10 US
$163 mil MC
inferred resource: 45 mil oz. silver + 1 mil oz gold.
1 mil oz. gold = + 10 mil oz. silver equiv
"The estimate does not address significant additional mineralized structures known to be present on the property, or the potential for large strike extensions of known high-grade zones."
February Financing was for the El Cubo Gold-Silver Mine is located in the Guanajuato gold-silver district in the Republic of Mexico. Historical reports cite district production at 1.2 billion ounces of silver and over 4 million ounces of gold. With capital spending and upgrades, and expect to produce up to 100,000 oz. gold equiv/year at $190/oz. At $400/oz, that may mean $210/oz. net profit, or $21 million positive cash flow/year, and yet, the purchase price was $21.5 million. Seems like they bought a mine, at a price, with a profit potential, of a P/E ratio of 1.
Target to expand the El Cubo project resource to over 2 million ounces of gold equivalent. Given that historic production was 300 oz. of silver for each 1 oz. of gold, I think it's odd that they speak in terms of "gold equivalent". Why not emphasize the silver??? Converting their target of gold back to silver, at their ratio of 65:1, gives 130 mil oz. "silver equivalent".
55 + 130 = 185 "exploration potential"
$163 mil MC / 185 mil oz. = $.88/oz.
You have an "exploration potential target" of 6.92 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments:
Gammon Lake is a large shareholder, 26.3%.
Mexgold announced bonanza grade discovery on Jan 13th, 11 kilos per ton silver, over 2 meters.
Part of a section of "25.5-metres grading 1.16 grams per tonne gold and 961 grams per tonne silver."
* TM.V TUMIF.OB (TUMI RSCS) (TUY Frankfurt Exchange) (I own shares)
http://www.tumiresources.com
nicolaas@attglobal.net Nick Nicolaas IR (604) 657 4058
24 fully diluted shares (Mar. 1, 2004)
@ $1.10/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.81 US
$20 mil MC
20 mil oz resource up to 50 million oz. silver potential but needs to be explored and drilled.
500,000 gold resource x 10 = 5 mil oz. silver equiv.
Debt free, 2 projects in Mexico.
Raised $2.7 million Nov. 14, 2003
$20 mil MC / 25 mil oz. = $.78/oz. ***I'm using this number***
$20 mil MC / 50 mil oz. = $.39/oz. (exploration potential)
You get "approx" 7.41 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Exploration Potential: 15 (likely plus more after bonanza silver discovery late November, 2003.)
Additional comments: Tumi soared in late November, after the company announced a bonanza grade silver discovery after drilling. This should significantly increase the numbers for their "exploration potential", but no word yet on the increase. It takes time for the geologists to estimate all of that, but investors went crazy over it immediately.
Tumi is focused on becoming a "premiere junior silver explorer." It's good to see the focus is in the right metal. Doing active drilling to prove up their projects and increase "resources". Nick Nicolaas really understands the silver story, beliving silver has much greater appreciation potential than gold.
Look at: Tinka TK.V (tumi's sister company)
A pretty big gold/copper property in Peru (Tumi owns 30% of it)...
That could mean significantly increased assets for Tumi.
I own shares of TM.V.
SSRI SSO.V (SILVER STD RSC)
http://www.silver-standard.com/
paull@silverstandard.com (604) 689-3856 or (888) 338-0046
51.7 mil shares fully diluted (May 1, 2004)
57 mil shares fully diluted (could bring in another $45 million) as of May 15, 2004 (not sure if this number is right, could not confirm at the website, but it came in a forwarded email from Paul, and I'll use it, because I'm so bullish on the entire sector.)
@ $11.41/share
$650 mil MC
debt free, cash: $Cdn 60 mil
As of May 12: The company has budgeted $8.2 million in 2004 for feasibility and scoping studies and exploration of its 15 projects. With cash of $61 million, and marketable securities of approximately $10 million at March 31, the company decided to invest approximately 20% of its cash and securities in physical silver following the decline in silver prices in April and May. Silver Standard now owns over 1.95 million ounces of silver. This silver is held on an allocated and segregated basis and, consequently, is not available to be loaned.
not mining or producing; 15 silver properties
measured and indicated resources totaling 403.6 million ounces of silver
plus inferred resources totaling 446.4 million ounces of silver = 850 mil oz.
2.2 mil oz. gold. Silver equiv = 22 mil oz. silver. (22 + 850 = 872 mil oz.)
$650 mil MC / 872 mil oz. = $.75/oz.
You get "approx" 7.75 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Congradulations to SSRI for converting some of their cash, 20%, to silver bullion! I wish it was more, but it is certainly a great start! I received plenty of letters about this action, and I was watching the share price like a hawk on Thursday morning, but surprisingly, the share price hardly moved on Thursday morning.
Congradulations also, for now having more resources than PAAS. I'd expect your market cap to soon exceed PAAS which is at $839 million, especially given PAAS management's lack of understanding that silver is money, and can be used as money. If your market cap does exceed that of PAAS soon, it could mean a share price boost of about 48%
Silver Standard Defines Second Silver Zone at La Pitarrilla-Significant Silver Grades up to 46 Oz./Ton Over 123 Feet
SSRI continues to add resources through drilling and acquisition.
SSRI really is the "silver standard". SSRI has the largest market cap this far down the list, which makes it a more attractive target for people with larger amounts of money to invest.
SSRI continues to add to reserves, either through exploring, or through acquisitions. This company seems to really understand the silver story, and helped to educate me as an investor.
I attended a two hour SSRI presentation after the Gold show in SF in late November. For the most part, their properties are very well drilled, and they have a fairly solid idea on how much silver oz. in the ground they have. They started their plan to acquire silver properties and become a "silver company" in about 1993, which explains why they have such a large market cap, and so many good properties with so many ounces of silver.
Some investors like SSRI because of the diversification --SSRI owns many silver properties. I say you can get a similar kind of diversification by owning stock in many silver companies.
ORM.V OREXF.PK (OREMEX RES)
http://www.oremex.com/s/Home.asp
info@oremex.com
24.2 mil shares Fully Diluted (April 1, 2004)
28.8 mil shares fully diluted (End of May, 2004) after, and including financing?
@ $.75/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.56 US
$16 mil MC
Have $5 million cash in the bank as of Dec. 2003.
holds the right to acquire a 100% interest in six mineral properties in Mexico.
Oremex will focus on the exploration and development of the Tejamen Silver Property and the San Lucas Silver Property.
They are hoping to explore for up to 100 mil oz. silver by drilling over the next year.
--Experienced team of geologists and management that have put other properties into production:
Anthony R. Harvey, Chariman, has put 14 properties into production in his 40 year career.
http://www.oremex.com/s/TejamenSilver.asp?ReportID=68653
for an inferred resource of 8.4 million metric tons at a grade of 89 g/t Silver (2.86 opt) and 0.2g/t Gold (0.006 opt).
2.86 x 8.4 = 24 mil oz. silver at Tejamen (one of six silver properties)
$16 mil MC / 24 mil oz. = $.67/oz.
$16 mil MC / 100 mil oz. = $.16/oz. --exploration potential
You get "approx" 8.68 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Exploration Potential: 36
Additional comments: Oremex Closes $2.6 Million Private Placement Financing May 28 "The Company issued a total of 2,890,023 units at $0.90 and 1,445,012 warrants exercisable at $1.10 for a period of 12 months from closing. In addition, 269,940 Agents' Warrants were issued entitling the holder to purchase one unit at $0.90 for a period of 12 months."
CZN.TO CZICF.PK (CDN ZINC)
http://www.canadianzinc.com/
czn@canadianzinc.com 1-866-688-2001
67.3 mil shares fully diluted as of Dec., 2003 (as stated in the proxy, p.8)
80.2 fully diluted shares as of Feb 2, 2004
@ $.76/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.56 US
$45 mil MC
$13.5 million cash, Cdn, no debt.
not mining ($20 mil needed to finish & start the mine) ($100 mil worth of mining infrastructure in place!)
~70 mil oz. (IN ZONE 3 only!! of 12 zones! This company seems to be greatly under-reporting their silver reserves. Their 18 year mine plan consists of zone 3 only, but there are 12 mineralized zones on the property.) Really, perhaps well over 100 mil oz. silver.
$45 mil MC / 70 mil oz. = $.64/oz.
You get "approx" 8.97 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: The additional cash from the recent private placements means that CZN will now be able to drill and explore more of their property. CZN likely has much more silver in the ground, and has good profit potential.
To get the mine up and running, they might be able to pay back such debt within 2 years, but I would hope they would avoid debt, and raise the capital in additional financings.
I note several very, very positive things about this company.
1. This was the mining operation set up by the Hunt brothers, the major silver investors in the silver spike to $50/oz. in 1980 who were bankrupted by their own debts and margin calls as a result of the COMEX rule changes and silver short sale manipulation. The Hunts spent $50 million building infrastructure to build the mine. They were 90% complete when bankruptcy hit. The value of those buildings is now $100 million, and the mine only needs about $20 million (CAN) ($15 mil US) to get the mine up and running. That's much cheaper than other cost estimates of other operations.
2. The 70 million oz. of silver estimate is for zone 3 only. But there are 12 zones on the property. The zone 3 estimate is for a 10 year mine plan that involves mining zone 3 at current metals prices.
3. High Grade ores:
12% zinc/ton; = 240 lbs. zinc/ton x 50 cents/lb. = $120/ton for the zinc.
10.1% lead/ton = 202 lbs. lead/ton x 40 cents/lb. = $80/ton for the lead.
6 oz. silver/ton x $6.95/oz. = $42/ton for the silver.
0.4% copper/ton = 8 lbs. copper/ton x 1.30 cents/lb. = $10/ton for the copper.
Total: $249/ton! Prices accurate as of Mid Feb., 2004
4. My method of valuation: I'm really counting only the silver, not the base metals in my "oz in the ground" valuation. So consider a significant "zinc bonus", and "lead bonus".
5. Zinc and base metals prices headed up? Currently, 45 cents/lb. for zinc! Check http://www.metalprices.com/ for updates.
SRLM.PK (STERLING MINING)
http://www.sterlingmining.com/
RDemotte@aol.com Ray DeMotte 208/676-0599
12.2 mil shares outstanding (May 31, 2004)
16.6 mil shares fully diluted (May 2004) --(I use fully diluted whenever possible in my market cap calculations)
@ $7.00/share
$116 mil MC
~185 mil oz. reserves + resource, Sunshine alone
Quote from: http://www.sterlingmining.com/jun112003.html
"The prior operator last estimated the mine reserves at 26.75 million ounces of silver, 10.36 million pounds of copper and 7.05 million pounds of lead (or approximately 28.85 million ounces of silver-equivalent), as well as an additional resource of 159.66 million ounces of silver. "
Other properties:
Baroness 15 mil -- tailing project, no further exploration potential.
Tesorito 17 mil -- + exploration potential
sa 14 mil -- + exploration potential
Total: 231 mil oz. silver
$116 mil MC / 231 mil oz. = $.50/oz.
$116 mil MC / 550 mil oz. = $.21/oz. (exploration potential)
You get "approx" 11.49 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
(Exploration potential is 27.)
Additional comments: I wrote an article on SRLM in late Dec. See: Sterling Mining
Ray DeMotte really, really understands the silver story, and has been aggressively acquiring silver properties. Sterling continues to consolidate its land position around the Sunshine mine.
Sterling Mining acquired the Sunshine mine. Sunshine had "more than 360 million ounces of production over the past century" and was one of the big three: Hecla, Couer, & Sunshine. Sunshine went bankrupt. Sterling got the property a few months ago cheap, because they were quick & willing to pay cash. Other buyers wanted to do a full study before making an offer. This company's share price went ballistic as a result. But the company is still way undervalued. Just do the math, people. There were a few great articles written lately for SRLM. See the company web site, above. The best factors, I feel, are as follows:
1. The Sunshine mine is an existing mine that was mining at a profit. The company went bankrupt, not the mine. So there will be no great capital costs for start up, only minimal costs.
2. The Sunshine sits on 1/2 sq. mile, and was never fully explored. Sterling Mining owns 10 square miles of property surrounding the Sunshine, right in the heart of silver country, the location of CDE and HL, the other two big companies at the top of this list.
3. The management of Sunshine understands the silver story. They are on a mission to acquire distressed silver properties at today's cheap prices. See also: December 14, 2003: "In light of the continued low silver price, Sterling has this year begun holding back into inventory a portion of this year's silver coins minted."
IMR.V IMXPF.OB (IMA EXPL)
http://www.imaexploration.com
49,059,825 mil Fully Diluted shares (May 27, 2004)
@ $2.85/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $2.11 U.S
$103 mil MC
Exploring in Argentina.
$4.5 million cash
Snowden Reports Over 200 Million Ounces of Contained Silver at IMA's Galena Hill -- May 25th
Indicated + Inferred Resource = 243 mil oz.
"This resource includes only the Galena Hill deposit and portions of the adjacent Connector zone, and does not include known and interpreted mineralization at Navidad Hill, Barite Hill, Calcite Hill, or along the Esperanza Trend."
My comments: This resource might be perhaps 1/4 or 1/5th of the overall potential resources, based on estimating by looking at size of the land area being explored, compared to the size of the land area covered by the resource calculation. The full exploration potential might be 4 times as big.
$103 mil MC / 243 mil oz. = .42/oz
You get "approx" 13.59 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
(Exploration potential might be (times 4) or 54.
Additional comments: Positive drilling results are coming in, and drilling continues.
IMA's Drilling at Navidad Intersects 115 Meters Grading 454 g/t '13 oz/t' Silver at Galena Hill
I don't think the lawsuit challenging IMR's claims has any merit.
IMA Exploration Inc.: Statement of Defence Filed Wed, Apr 7
IMA has many other silver properties, and they plan to spin these off into a new company.
IMA has several joint venture partners in the area in Argentina near Navidad. See Tinka, Cloudbreak, Consolidated Pacific Bay. Other companies are in the near area such as Pategonia Gold, Pacific Rim, and Silver Standard. And, of course Aqualine who, based on their lawsuit, seems as if they think they own the entire area for 50 miles around all their mining claims. That's a total of 7 other companies in the area. And of course, Cardero also has significant exploration properties in Argentina.
FAN.TO FRLLF.PK ( FARALLON RSCS)
http://www.farallonresources.com/fan/Home.asp
(604) 684-6365 Erick Bertsch
77.5 mil shares fully diluted as of April 1, 2004
@ $.72/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.53 US
$41 mil MC
Exploration and development in Mexico.
Run by hdgold.com (Hunter-Dickinson)
On 4 sulphide deposits out of 16, 29 mil tonnes of ore grading 89 grams silver/t and 1.57 g gold/t.
Conversion: 89 grams x .03215 troy oz./gram = 2.86 oz./t silver
RE: those 29 mil tons, they "anticipate increasing resources to 50 mil tonne range..."
2.86 oz./t silver x 29 mil tons = 83 mil oz. silver
1.5 mil oz. gold x 10 = 15 mil oz "silver equiv".
Total: 98 mil oz. silver equiv.
(Exploration potential = x 1.7 = 167)
(Minus: The recoveries on low grade ores such as this are typically not 100%, but may be more like 50-85%, but it also depends on which metal in the polymetalic deposit that they most focus on extracting, and also depends on advances in technology.)
$41 mil MC / 98 mil oz. silver equiv. = $.42/oz.
$41 mil MC / 167 mil oz. silver equiv. = $.25/oz. --exploration potential
You get "approx" 13.71 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Exploration potential = 23
Additional comments: Nothing done or drilled on the property since 1999. Why not? Because of low zinc prices: 46% of the price of the metals was in the zinc before prices crashed... The largest componant in late 2003 was gold, which was surprising to Eric, the IR guy I spoke with. About 1/3 is in silver now.
At today's low metals prices:
2% x 2000 lb = 40 lbs zinc x $.42/lb = $16.8 for the zinc (.37 to .50 lb zinc.)
3.14 oz. x $5.15 = $16 for the silver.
.055421 oz. x $385/oz. = $21 for the gold
(Assuming 100% metals recovery--which is not likely to be the case. It may range from 60% to a higher percentage, depending on extraction methods used and the particular mineral targeted, which constantly change with technology advancements, and price changes in the metals. By the time a mine like this gets running, perhaps in 5 years or so, things may change to allow even greater metal recovery.)
The stock once had a market cap of $450 million, Canadian.
Speaking with FAN.TO guys, they think reserves of ore could be 50 mil tonnes OR MORE, but that they really don't know, and want to issue conservative estimates.
GGC.V GGCRF.PK (GENCO RESOURCES)
http://www.gencoresources.com/
IR: Rob Blankstein: 604-682-2205, or info@gencoresources.com
20+ mil shares fully diluted (April, 2004)
@ $1.05/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.78
$16 mil MC
--Producer in Mexico.
http://www.gencoresources.com/reserves.html
484 x .03215 = (15.5 oz) x 2.3 mil t = 35.8 mil oz. silver
2.00 x .03215 = 148,000 oz. gold x 10 = 1.5 mil oz. silver
385 x .03215 = ... x 95k = 1.2 mil oz silver
40+ mil oz. silver equiv. resources
2002 production, 500,000 oz. silver, 9000 oz. gold
$16 mil MC / 40 mil oz. silver = $.39/oz.
You get "approx" 14.88 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional Comments: As of April, 2004, Genco is producing 35,000 oz/month of silver, earning $100,000 Cdn/month, and expects to earn $1,000,000 Cdn/month by year's end by doubling both the tonnage and the grade. Genco is also aggressivly planning on making property acquisitions.
RDV.TO RDFVF.PK (REDCORP VENTURE)
http://www.redcorp-ventures.com/
http://www.redfern.bc.ca/index.html
52.7 mil shares fully diluted (March 2004)
@ $.36/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.27
$14 mil MC
http://www.redfern.bc.ca/projects/tulsequah/exploration_resources.html#results
9 mil tonnes indicated and inferred at 107.5 g/t x .03215
= 31 mil ounces silver (3.4 oz/ton low grade silver, with other minerals)
(also have significant gold ($30/ton at $400/oz.) and zinc $60/ton at $.46/lb.)
728,000 oz of Gold x 10 = 7.3 mil "silver equiv"
= 38.3 mil oz. silver equiv.
$14 mil MC / 38.3 mil oz = $.37/oz.
You get "approx" 15.77 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: RDV has a "gold bonus". At $409/ gold, and $6.50/oz. silver, it's about $300 million worth of gold, and $200 million worth of silver, or about 60% of the value is in the gold. Since my method really undercounts the gold, this means there is a significant "gold bonus" here.
Redcorp Ventures Ltd.: Brokered Private Placement Financing Closed ($3 million)
CHD.V CHDSF.PK (CHARIOT RSCS)
http://www.chariotresources.com/
45 mil shares fully diluted October 2003
@ $.33/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.24 US
$11 mil MC
Cello Ccasa (1 project of 4) Resource Estimate - August 2002
31.4 mil oz. silver, 134,000 oz. gold. (x 10 = 1.3) 32.7 mil oz.
(Still much exploration work to do.)
$11 mil MC / 32.7 mil oz. = $.34/oz.
You get "approx" 17.19 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
ADB.V ADBRF.PK (ADMIRAL BAY RSCS)
http://www.admiralbay.com/
info@admiralbay.com 604 628 5642 -- Curt Huber-- Business Development
33.3 mil shares fully dilluted. (March, 2004)
@ $1.08/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.80 US
$27 mil MC
They have $6 million cash.
--owns an option to earn 70% interest in "Miera San Jorge's Monte del Favor property in Mexico"
"An historical resource estimate based on underground sampling at Monte Del Favor is reported at 17 million tonnes grading 0.85 g/t gold and 224 g/t silver for a contained 123 million ounces of silver and 460,000 ounces of gold." "While this resource estimate is not fully 43-101 compliant, the Company considers that it provides a conceptual indication of the potential of the property."
460,000 x 10 = 4.6 mil "silver equiv".
127.6 mil oz. x 70% interest = 89.3 mil oz.
$27 mil MC / 89.3 mil oz. = $.30/oz.
You get "approx" 19.39 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Prior grades hit 2-5 kilos silver/ ton. (2000-5000g/ton. 70-176 oz. ton) Very high grades. The project was never properly drilled with modern methods.
Admiral Bay acquired this option to own a 70% interest in this silver property in June, 2003, and the acquisition did not impact their stock price at that time at all. Previously, they were a gas company, and they still have this other gas project, which may be more than half the intrinsic value of the company according to Curt Huber, who understands the silver story as expressed by Ted Butler and David Morgan.
My valuation method, obviously, does not give any value for their gas projects, which therefore needs to be factored in as a significant "bonus". Company goals for gas production are 2.5 million cubic feet/day by mid 2004, which at $5 would be $12,500/day gross, and target is 7.5 million cubic feet/day by the end of the year, again, at $5 would be $35,000/day gross, or $12.8 mil/year gross. After speaking with Curt Huber at the NY Gold show in early June, 2004, Admiral Bay soon expects to be cash flow positive soon from the gas projects.
They are actively digging, drilling, and releasing results in press releases.
PLE.V (PLEXMAR RES INC)
http://www.paradox-pr.ca/ -- website inactive. Check Sedar.
62 mil fully diluted (March 2004)
@ $.205/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.15 US
$9.4 mil MC
--just acquired 2 silver mines in Peru
Total: 1.09 mil gold oz., 28.4 mil oz. silver
Total silver equiv: 38.4 mil oz.
$9.4 mil MC / 38.4 mil oz. = .24/oz.
You get "approx" 23.60 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
* SVL.V STVZF.PK (SILVRCRST MINES) (I own shares)
http://www.silvercrestmines.com/
info@silvercrestmines.com (604) 691-1730
25.9 million fully diluted March, 2004
@ $1.10/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.81 US
$21 mil MC
$3 mil cash in the til.
Now the Honduras and El Salvador "Resource" totals 43 million
plus the exploration potential of 40 - 100 million in Honduras
plus Mexico, --see news release from last month,
plus drill programs to start in Mexico and El Salvador
plus Guatemala another unknown but geologically similar to main property in Honduras and El Salvadore all three are within 25 miles from each other.
Silvercrest added 14.3 million oz. of resources at El Zapote, 4-6-04
The range of exploration potential is between 89 - 149 million oz.
$21 mil MC / 89 = $.24/oz.
$21 mil MC / 149 = $.14/oz.
You get "approx" 24.4 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
(Exploration potential = 41+ oz.)
Additional comments: April 6th: SilverCrest Reports El Zapote Resource Estimates
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040406/65883_1.html
--Silvercrest added about 14 million oz. of silver resources in the April 6th press release.
March 17th: Silvercrest closes El Salvadoran (El Zapote) Acquisition
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040317/175900_1.html
The project in El Salvador is only 20 km from the property in Honduras, and the property in Guatemala is 15km away, so only one mill will be needed for the three when a production decision is made.
Silvercrest has been and will be acquiring more silver properties with the money raised in the late November 2003 private placement, which I think is an outstanding way to spend the money.
I own shaers of SVL.V
ASM.V ASGMF.PK (AVINO SILV GOLD)
http://www.avino.com/
shares@avino.com 604 682-3701 -- David Wolfin
10.5 mil shares outstanding.
12.5 mil shares fully diluted (June 2004)
@ $1.20/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.89 US
$11 mil MC
from: http://www.avino.com/other/goldstock100197.html --in 1997
"How Much Silver Does Avino Have?"
"Operations at Avino's silver mine in Mexico are both open-pit and underground. I examined the reserves and interpolated the tonnage into silver ounces as follows: 28-million ounces proven; 50-million ounces probable and 27 million ounces possible." (Not all are 43101 compliant reserves & resources.--that is an old, third party report.)
--focus is on being silver company. A plus.
They actually have over five silver properties/projects. I'm only have numbers to count for one, the "Avino mine".
= 28 + 50 + 27 = 105
Avino owns 49% of that, or 51.5 mil oz.
-"not considered reserves under the new Canadian National Policy 43-101"
$11 mil MC / 51.5 mil oz. = $.22/oz.
You get "approx" 26.82 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional notes: There are 4 additional silver properties that I don't have numbers for. Consider this a "silver bonus"!!!
Mexican mining law once stated that a controlling interest had to be owned by Mexicans, which explains why they only have a 49% interest. That they don't have a controlling interest is a minus. This law has changed. The mine was operational until the mine went into temporary closure in November 2001. So there is in place an existing mine, with working infrastructure, which is a bonus. There is a need for drilling in order to test the potential that was stated in the feasibility study.
HDA.V (HUSIF pink sheets symbol?) (HULDRA SILVER)
no website
Phone: Magnus 1 (604) 261-6040
6.924 million shares out (fully diluted) (Nov or Dec '03?)
@ $.32/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = US $.24
$1.6 mil MC
no debt
HDA's proven and probable reserves stand at 161,000 tons of
ore grading an average 25.6 ounces per ton silver, and 10 percent combined
lead/zinc -- 4.12 mil oz silver, not including the zinc & lead.
According to Magnus, the indicated and inferred reserves total about 180,000
tons at about the same grading -- in other words, a further 4 million ounces of
silver.
~8 mil oz. silver
$1.6 mil MC / 8 mil oz. silver = $.20/oz.
You get "approx" 28.3 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: There is a significant lead/zinc bonus. "The property could be put into production at a capital cost of Cdn $3.5 million -- with payback of capital (when equity financed) within two years."
* MGN (MINES MGMT) (I own shares)
http://www.minesmanagement.com/
info@minesmanagement.com (509) 838 6050 Doug Dobbs
12.4 mil shares fully diluted (April 2004)
@ $4.31/share
$53 mil MC
261 mil oz. silver resources. Previous drilling spent over $100 million drilling the property.
$53 mil MC / 261 mil = $.20/oz.
You get "approx" 28.23 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: As copper moves up 5 cents/lb., it adds $100 million to the value of the deposit.
As silver moves up $.50/oz., it adds $130 million to the value of the deposit.
Mines Management owned 10% of the rights to their property in Montana. The other 90% owner, Noranda, simply gave up on the property and walked away from their mining claim due to "perpetually" low silver prices and political concerns. That explains the rocketing share price. So, the MNMM group got 90% of the rest of the property FOR FREE!--the value of which, and the nature of this transaction has just barely begun to be understood by the market, given the low relative price.
Their property also has about 60% of the value (at current prices) in copper (copper recently at $1.24/lb.), 2 Billion pounds of copper, and 261 mil oz. of silver. Doing the math:
261 mil oz. silver x $5.70/oz. = $1.487 Billion.
2 Billion lbs copper x $1.24/lb.. = $2.5 Billion.
Total value of mineralization before costs to extract, $4.0 billion. It was recently a high of: $4.8 Billion. This number increased from around $3 Billion just a few months ago!
They do not have an active working mine--which is a minus. They will need to raise capital to get a mine going. Noranda had several estimates for the cost to build a mine and mill, around $250 million. But it could be less depending on how economic they decide to do things. They are working on a feasibility study, and avoiding excessive dilution, which is a plus.
Regarding environmental concerns: Noranda had a fully approved Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) that led to successful project permitting, so environmental concerns were not a factor in Noranda's departure of the project in 2002.
For more on MGN (formerly MNMM) see
http://www.thebullandbear.com/bb-reporter/bbfr-archive/minesmgmt.html
Mines Management has a new Message Board at Yahoo! Finance:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mb?s=MGN
I own shares of MGN.
EXR.V EXPTF.PK (EXPATRIATE RECS)
http://www.expatriateresources.com/
info@expatriateresources.com 1-877-682-5474 Dr. Harlan D. Meade, President and CEO
103 mil shares fully dulted June 2004 (including the Atna buy out)
@ $.27/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.20
$21 mil MC
$1.2 mil CAN capital in the til no debt.
Mostly a base metals company: Zinc. Also has some silver & gold.
Total metal content of the six projects with resources... "Using current metal prices, the gross metal value of Expatriate's interest in the base metals in the properties is approximately US$1.56 billion as compared to US$540 million for its share of the silver and gold."
Metal: Expatriate share of the project:
Zinc 2.67 billion lbs.
Copper 385 million lbs.
Lead 202 million lbs.
Silver 63.1 million oz.
Gold 426,700 million oz.
Gold x 10 = 4.3 mil "silver equiv".
(+ 33 mil oz silver from the buy out of Atna's portion of the Wolverine project)
$21 mil MC / 100 mil oz. silver = $.206
You get "approx" 28.06 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Expatriate Purchases Atna's Interest in Wolverine Deposit, Yukon
I have removed Atna from this list as a silver company.
Excerpt:
Purchase Agreement Terms Expatriate will acquire Atna's 39.4% interest in the Wolverine Joint Venture for cash payments of $2 million, the issuance of 10 million common shares (the "Transaction Shares") and 5 million share purchase warrants (the "Warrants"), each Warrant entitling Atna to purchase one common share of Expatriate at a price of $0.32 for two years from issuance
Wolverine is rich in precious metals containing about 75,000,000 ounces of silver and 352,000 ounces of gold.
Thus, Expatriate is acquiring 39.4% of 75 million ounces of silver (29.5 mil oz.), and 39.4% of 352,000 ounces of gold. The gold portion, at 10:1 ratio, is (3.5 mil oz.) of "silver equiv". Thus, I'm adding 33 mil oz. of silver to my prior total. I'm also going to add in 10 million common shares, and 5 million warrants, for an additional 15 million shares fully diluted. To help evaluate the acquisition, that's 15 mil shares fully diluted at .27 Cdn x .74 = .20. .20 x 15 mil shares = $3 mil MC US + $1.48 mil US cash = $4.48 mil MC / 33 mil oz. silver = $.135/oz. acquisition cost. This is significantly less than the current cost of the company's resources, or about $.22/oz., thus I see the acquistion as good for existing shareholders of Expatriate at the moment.
Significant zinc bonus, about 3 times the silver value. Smelter credits are estimated at about 60% zinc, 25% silver, 10% gold and copper, and the rest, other minerals. My method of valuation puts a value on the silver only, not the rest, so this is a significantly better value than my number shows.
Call Dr. Harlan D. Meade, President and CEO 1-877-682-5474, and ask him to send you an information packet on EXR.V. It contains a good report on why he is bullish on zinc.
ABI.V ABMBF.PK (Abcourt Mines Inc.)
no website Jeff Tremblay (IR) (418) 575-1169
26 mil shares fully diluted (May, 2004)
@ $.15 share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.11
$2.9 mil MC
no debt., North of Montreal., 8 mil shares family owned.
proven reserves... not ready to be opened, re-opened perhaps in mid 2005?
--Past producer, so there's existing infrastructure.
--Resource: 18.1M oz silver, 120,000 oz. gold, 303,000 tons zinc, 2,308 tons copper
$273 million worth of zinc at .45/lb, $108 million worth of silver at $6/oz, $45.6 mil worth of gold at $380
$2.9 mil MC / 19 mil oz. = $.15/oz.
You get "approx" 38 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: looking to raise $5 mil to reopen the gold mine.
needs $5 mil to reopen the silver mine. (drilling the silver mine planned for summer, 2004)
needs $5 mil for the zinc project.
UNCN.OB ( UNICO INC)
http://www.uncn.net/
Ray Brown, 530-873-4394
70 mil shares (may have increased recently)
@ $.066/share
$5 mil MC
Three main properties:
Bromide-- 372,000 ounces of gold?
Silver Bell--15 mil oz silver?
Deer Trail --287,000 ounces of gold and 27 million ounces of silver... but the lease on the Deer Trail will expire June 1 2004, so they need to raise significant money. I believe they are in negotiations to extend the lease.
49 mil oz. total.
$5 mil MC / 49 mil oz. = $.09/oz.
You have an expiring lease on "approx" 61 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Be careful with this one, my numbers of shares may be outdated, and they may have lose the lease, I don't know.
They need $4 million to exercise their option to buy the "Deer Trail" property. They are considering various options on how to do that. Ray Brown has been in this business a long time, and is excited that he's got a bunch of younger guys working on the property now, and he's encouraged by the upward direction of the price of precious metals.
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Explorers:
Explorers deserve their own category, since they cannot be valued by my method of looking at reserves and resources of ounces of silver in the ground. We do not know how many oz. they might have. They are exploring for that. A few explorers may also be producers.
This list, although at the bottom, in no way indicates that these companies are more highly valued than companies listed above. It is also difficult to categorize a company as an explorer, since all silver companies always hold more silver properties that need to be explored. IE, everyone is an explorer!
The list above is not a list of producers, the list above is a list of companies with significantly measurable resources in the ground. Those below, generally do not. Or, if they do have resource numbers, the numbers are very small compared to their much larger exploration potential, and thus, they are listed here.
(The order in this list is by largest market cap first, not by "comparative value" of the market cap divided by the resources, as above. However, in a few cases where a company does list their exploration potential, I do provide a number of what that might give you, in terms of silver ounces in the ground, for an ounce of silver's worth of stock.)
HL (HECLA MINING CO)
http://hecla-mining.com/
hmc-info@hecla-mining.com (208) 769-4100
118 mil shares outstanding (derrived from the market cap and share price late May, 2004)
@ $6.21/share
$733 million Market Cap (MC)
near zero debt, cash: $123 mil (Feb., 2004)
(est. 2003 production 9 mil oz. silver)
(the La Camorra gold mine, 412,000 oz gold.) ... (x 350/5 = 28 mil silver equivalent oz.)
412,000 oz. gold x 10 = 4.1 mil oz silver equiv.
San Sebastian silver mine, (proven & probably reserves) 8.7 mil (produced 3 mil)
the Greens Creek silver mine (proven & probably reserves) 31 mil (produced 3 mil) (HL owns 31% of this, but the 31 mil oz. number reflects that percentage ownership.)
the Lucky Friday mine (proven & probably reserves) 14 mil. (produced 2 mil)
4.1 + 8.7 + 31 + 14 = 57.8
Total silver equiv. reserves = 57.8 mil oz.
$733 mil MC / 57.8 mil "oz." = $12.68/oz.
Additional comments: Given that CDE made a share offer in week #36 for Wheaton River, I expect that Hecla will try a similar tactic very soon, and offer shares to acquire another silver company.
Hecla is the most expensive company on the list in terms of cost per oz. of silver in the ground. But HL has more oz. than listed in the "proven & probable" category used in this calculation. Vein mining makes reserve calculations difficult, and HL has rarely had more than about a 3-4 year picture of reserves ahead of them in 100 years of production.
Hecla has a net income of $6.2 million for the first quarter of 2004. Annualized, that's $24.8 million for the year, which gives a P/E ratio of $733 mil MC / $24.8 mil = 30, which indicates to me that HL is still too expensive of a stock to buy. Other silver properties and companies in the silver world have P/E ratios of as low as 3.
At the NY Gold show in June, I spoke with Vicki Veltkamp, Hecla's vice president of investor and public affairs, and I listened to her 15 minute presentation on Hecla at the show. I felt that her presentation honored my work, since she focused on the fact that Hecla does not have substantial reportable reserves, due to the nature of vein mining. She also emphasized that they already had detailed plans for spending all of their available cash, of $123 million, which implied that they had nothing left over to buy silver bullion.
I spoke with Vicki at length about buying at least some silver with their cash. As a company with a NYSE listing, the regulations for doing something "unusual" like that prohibit them from doing so. It would have to be put to the shareholders for a vote, which would be costly, and perhaps even impractical, and take quite a bit of time to accomplish. I noted that holding cash would have been the right strategy during the previous 24 year bear market in silver, prices, but that holding silver bullion is the best strategy for the next 20 year bull market in silver bullion. I argued that even if it took a year to get shareholder approval for such a change, it would be worth it, in the long run, to start such a process now. Vicki agreed that a change like this would have to come from the shareholders, who would, literally, have to demand it in significant numbers.
I have spoken with Vicki in the past on this issue. I have sent her copies of my report that said that silver companies will soon be holding silver bullion in preference to holding cash. She said that she made copies of my report for the board of directors, and that this issue was put to the board of directors for discussion, and that they had, indeed discussed it, and ultimately decided against it. For months, I knew that Vicki was interested in the idea, but I did not want to say anything about HL's interest because doing so might have caused the market price of silver to move up, ahead of any possible planned purchase.
I say this now to let everyone know that HL is not going to buy silver bullion with their cash anytime soon. In fact, legally, they might not be able to, without shareholder approval. And that is sad, but that's the way of life with the rules of the exchange, designed, of course, to "protect" shareholders, which, of course, is ridiculous. But we live in a ridiculous world.
One of Vicki's counter arguments was that HL only produces 9 million ounces of silver, and that in a market that produces 500 million ounces of silver a year, that withholding production would not significantly move up the price. This is ridiculous, and I think she's looking at the wrong numbers. HL's market cap has recently ranged from $600 million to up to $1,000 million. The remaining silver at the COMEX, available for delivery in the registered category is only 47 million ounces, not the 500 million ounes annually produced. The available silver is valued, at $6/oz., at $280 million. HL could issue 1/4 to 1/3 more stock than they already have outstanding, and use the proceeds to buy perhaps $250 million worth of silver bullion, and break the price to sky high levels, which would boost profits enormously.
If HL mines 9 million ounces of silver a year, at a cost of about $5-6/oz. (because their profits are slim), then if the silver price rises to about $33/oz, and other costs remain the same, HL could be making $250 million dollars per year. It seems the largest silver companies have absolutely no vision about how they can affect the markets, and take a leadership role in the world of silver.
I urged Vicki that HL should use their stock or cash, if not for buying silver bullion, then to acquire other silver companies, since I believe their stock is overvalued. Vicki said HL does look at many acquisition opportunites, and would be interested in looking at others.
HL was downgraded on Jan 6th by CIBC Wrld Mkts from Sector Perform to Sector Underperform http://biz.yahoo.com/c/20040106/d.html?hl
I expect silver bullion to continue to outperform HL stock at these prices.
EZM.V EZMCF.PK (EUROZINC MINING)
http://www.eurozinc.com/
224 million shares Fully Diluted (not sure of the date here, may be outdated, especially given the recent acquisition)
@ $.58/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.43
$96 mil MC
Additional comments: Eurozinc really moved up in price after they announced a bid for the Neves Corvo mine in Portugal for 128 million Euros.
Eurozinc has significant silver.
SPM.V SMNPF.PK (SCORPIO MINING)
http://www.scorpiomining.com
52.2 mil shares fully diluted April 2004 (after recent $16 million Cdn private placement)
@ $2.24/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $1.66 US
$87 mil MC
Scorpio closes $16 million private placement, March 8th
CDU.V CUEAF.PK (CARDERO RSCS)
http://www.cardero.com/
hvanalphen@cardero.com Henk Van Alphen -- President (604) 408-7488
32 million shares fully diluted Dec. 11th , 2003
@ $2.75/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $2.03 US
$65 mil MC
($17 million Cdn cash in the treasury)
Providencia -- high grades, could have 100-250 mil oz.
Chingolo -- Henk says, "may have 400-600 mil oz. "exploration potential" in 200-300 mil tons of rock." They got 30-40 grams (1.23 oz.) on the first drill hole, but hope to find 2-3 ounces silver/ton.
Cardero has diversified into copper and iron exploration properties. See the website for further information.
Additional comments: *** I wrote an article on Cardero in January, 2003.
See http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/hommel020803.html
Cardero has three properties in Argentina; two main silver exploration properties: Chingolo and Providencia.
Cardero Update on the La Zorra Project, Mexico - CCNMatthews
Providencia also has potentially high grades in several very large conglomerate deposits that can be mined at a profit today. Their property at Providencia was an active mine, but only a few tons/day. But they hope to make a large open pit project out of the main deposit, processing perhaps a few thousand tons/day.
June, 2004: "The Company is actively evaluating silver, gold, copper and iron-ore projects that which will ensure the recognition of Cardero as a world-class exploration and development company."
AOT.V ASOLF.PK (ASCOT RSCS) http://www.bmts.bc.ca/aot/ 1 604 684 8950 39.7 fully diluted. (Nov 2003) @ $.30/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.22 US $9 mil MC (US) ---- Additional comments: They own 5.82 million shares and 388,000 warrants of Cardero at $.35, which usually is a greater asset value than their market cap. Ascot's share price is typically around 80% of the value of their Cardero Stock.) (I'm listing this one out of order, not by market cap, and next to Cardero, because of their position in Cardero.)
* OTMN.PK (O.T. MINING) (I own shares)
http://www.otmining.com/
info@otmining.com Jim Hess Tel: 514-935-2445
12.8 mil fully diluted (May 15, 2004)
@ $4.00/share
$51 mil MC
Montana
Historic silver production for the Butte district, from 1880 to 2000 was 714,643,005 oz. silver.
They think their deposit may be bigger than "the richest hill on earth", which is located near their property, in the Butte district.
The exploration potential for this company is astounding, if they are right.
Private Placement Closed.
Here is a comparatively busy message board for O.T. Mining:
http://ragingbull.lycos.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=OTCF:OTMN
A nearly abandoned message board for O.T. Mining:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/subject.gsp?subjectid=21081
I own shares of OTMN.PK
MCAJF.PK (MACMIN LTD)
http://www.macmin.com.au/
450 mil shares and options (Feb., 04)
@ $.08/share
$36 mil MC
"Total Inferred Resource is 34.5 million ozs silver but the district is unexplored for epithermal silver and exploration to date suggests a district potential of 50 to 100m ozs Ag or perhaps much more." --"Macmin is a silver focussed company" The Texas Silver Project has in-ground resources of 44.5Moz of silver equivalent. (They own some Malichite, MAR.AX) Also, significant gold projects, perhaps several multi-million oz. potential projects.
News article in Australia on MCJAF
* FCO.TO FCACF.PK (FORMATION CAPTL) (I own shares)
http://www.formcap.com/frhome.htm
inform@formcap.com 604-682-6229
165 mil fully diluted, March 2004
@ $.50/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.37
$61 mil MC
(Recently completed $10 million financing)
Very large cobolt property: 1-3 million tons of 0.60% cobalt equivalent
Cobalt prices are racing ahead, up to $25- $33/lb. see http://www.wmc-cobalt.com/prices.asp
2000 lbs/ton x 0.6% = 12 lbs/ton x $29.50 /lb. = $354/ton (rich ore)
Cobolt is $29.50/lb. recently, up from $9/lb.
Formation Capital owns the Sunshine Silver Refinery (near Sterling Mining), worth $50 million.
Break even cost $5-6/lb cobolt.
The Idaho Cobalt Project is projected to produce 1,500 tonnes of cobalt per annum.
= 3,000,000 lbs. production x about $ 20/lb profit? = about $60 mil profit/year???
FCO.TO also owns a few minor silver projects.
The cobolt project needs more drilling, and with recent financing, things look bright.
Formation capital will be re-starting the Sunshine Silver Refinery--expected in early June.
I own shares of FCO.TO
* MMGG.OB (METALLINE MINE) (I own shares)
http://www.metalin.com/site_map.html
metalin@attglobal.net Merlin Bingham 208-665-2002
21.6 mil shares fully diluted (April, 2004) (only 2 mil options and warrants)
@ $2.30/share US
$50 mil MC
$8 million cash in the til.
Additional Comments: Metalline Funding Completed April 7, Raised $8,316,500
Metalline's Sierra Mojada Project Status Report Wednesday May 5
Zinc & Silver in Mexico: Sierra Mojada. Sierra Mojada is a Silver District!
Silver: Historic production was 10 mil tons of high grade ore... historic silver production went right "direct shiped" to the smelter, non-milled. It contained 500-1000 grams silver/ton, or 17.65 to 35 oz. ton. This means 170-353 million ounces of historic "high grading," non-milled, production.
(Who knows how much silver is left?) That's the question with an explorer.
Zinc: Very high grades: 11.8% zinc. Potentially the lowest production cost in the entire zinc industry due to new "oxide deposit" chemical extraction process as revolutionary as "heap leaching". Exploring for up to 4 Billion pounds zinc.
Project ownership: MMGG terminated the buy-in agreement with Penoles, who went into default, so MMGG now owns 100% of the project! See http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031203/35526_1.html
I believe this is very good for MMGG, since the Penoles agreement made it more difficult to quantify the value the company. Now, it is easier to value the company, and the existing shareholders will own more of the project and profits. It is important to note that MMGG took the initiative to terminate the agreement. Penoles did not issue a statement indicating any intent to walk away. Penoles' delay or indecision caused them to lose the rights to their buy-in option agreement. Just like if you have an "in the money" option, it's a mistake to let it expire.
For more, see the research works article here:
http://www.stocksontheweb.com/mmgg.htm
(Merlin of MMGG.OB, and Harlan of EXR.V (friends, actually) both have reports that will educate you on the bullish story for Zinc.)
I own shares of MMGG.OB
TVI.TO TVIPF.PK (TVI PACIFIC)
http://www.tvipacific.com
Dianne (IR) Phone: (403) 265-4356
378 mil shares fully diluted (April 2004)
@ $.165/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.12 US
$46 mil MC
"The company has a policy of not hedging or entering into forward sales contracts."
Cash flow positive. !!! --> + 2.5 % royalty on "Rapu Rapu" that should be worth about $1 million per year starting within 9-12 months. (a cash source for an explorer is a big plus)
14 projects in the Philippines.
Producing a dore bar of 96% silver and 4% gold from Canatuan project with the following:
Total silver = 7.1 mil oz silver
Total gold = 182,000 oz. gold x 10 (@10:1) = 1.8 mil oz silver equiv.
Total silver equiv (Canatuan) = 8.9 mil oz.
+ they own a drilling company with 20 rigs.
+ they have a "foot in the door" in China.
+ many other promising exploration properties in the Asian Pacific.
Additional comments: This company exploded in price from 16 cents to 23.5 cents when they announced that they would be mining in China: "TVI Pacific Inc. Receives Landmark Approval for Wholly Foreign-Owned Enterprise (WFOE) Status From Chinese Government". see http://tinyurl.com/vwbw
They are primarily a silver explorer. The bonus is they are a producer, and are cash flow positive, which are both extremely rare for an explorer. In fact, the other producers mostly all lose money!
* FR.V FMJRF.PK (FIRST MAJESTIC) (I own shares)
http://www.firstmajestic.com/s/Home.asp
info@firstmajestic.com
27.8 mil shares fully diluted March, 2004
from http://www.firstmajestic.com/s/ShareStructure.asp?ReportID=67945&_Title=Share-Structure
@ $1.73/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $1.28
$36 mil MC
from http://www.jaba.com/2003/info/niko_2003_1.html
http://www.stockjunction.com/modules/emails/featuredprofiles/FR/majestic_sj.html
Up to 80% ownership of the Niko project.
from http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/040113/first_majestic_mexico_1.html
Also, First Majestic acquired the La Parrilla Silver Mine in Mexico, a former producing silver mine that closed in 1999 due to low silver prices. They expect to re-open in 4 months, producing 175,000 tonnes a year at 300g/t silver, which means 1.8 mil oz. of silver produced per year. The cost to mine is estimated at $25-30/tonne, and recovery is 85-90%. Cash costs are expected to be $3/oz. Producing 1.8 mil oz. of silver per year.
They linked an excerpt from my free e-book from goldismoney.com " 8 Reasons why silver is a better investment than gold! " see url here: http://tinyurl.com/xyyb
Additional comments: The other benefit of FR.V is that the company is keen on acquiring new properties. This is where the best money is made for a company in today's bull market in silver, in my opinion. From the home page of the website:
"First Majestic recently announced the acquisition of Le Parrilla Silver Mine, Mexico, which is anticipated to be the first of several acquisitions over the coming months."
I own shares of FR.V
* NPG.V NVPGF.PK (NEVADA PAC GOLD) (I own shares)
http://www.nevadapacificgold.com/
dhottman@nevadapacificgold.com (604) 646-0188 David Hottman
47.4 mil shares fully diluted (April 2004)
@ $.88/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.65 US
$31 mil MC
$2.8 million cash (April 2004)
Amador Canyon Silver Project: 50-250 mil tonnes
silver grades average 4 oz. sil/ ton in the deposit
= 200 to 1000 mil oz. silver????? --very speculative at this point. Drilling needs to be done.
$31 mil MC / 200 mil oz. = $.15/oz.
$31 mil MC / 1000 mil oz. = $.031/oz.
The inverse: you "might" get 38 - 186 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
Additional comments April 2: Nevada Pacific Gold to Initiate 25,000 Feet of Drilling on Keystone, Amador Canyon and Limousine Butte
The 200 to 1000 mil oz. of silver exploration potential estimate for the Amador Canyon project is based on the size of the area, which may provide between 50 and 250 million tonnes of ore, times a low grade of 4-6 ounce per ton. 50 mil tonnes x 4 oz/tonne = 200 mil oz., the low end of the target range. 250 million tonnes x 4 oz/tonne = 1000 mil oz., the high end of the range. That target range is the expectation that the geologists are hoping the drilling will prove up. It will likely take several rounds of drilling and analysis of drill results to get a proper resource calculation, and plenty of time.
NPG.V has 10 gold projects, and one silver-but it may be big. The Chariman, David Hottman, says that 90% of the value of the company is in gold, NOT silver, and yet, I'm buying this company for the silver project of Amador Canyon only, and as if the gold componant was worth nothing. (The gold projects are a free bonus, in my book, and help to alleviate the risk of this explorer.)
Explorer in Nevada. They do not really know how much silver they might they have in the Amador Canyon project. They just did a $2.5 million private placement, and another $10 million private placement in late November. On the website, for David Hottman's bio, it says he was a founding member of Eldorado gold. "During his tenure, Eldorado's market capitalization grew from Cdn $7 million in 1992 to a peak of Cdn $781 million in 1996." Please note, exploration is risky, and costly.
Now that they are well-capitalized with over $10 million dollars, this company will likely do very well as they drill and prove up the deposits across all their properties.
I own shares of NPG.V
MAG.V MSLRF.PK (MAG SILVER)
http://www.magsilver.com
28 mil fully diluted shares (Nov. 19, 2003)
@ $1.39/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = US $1.03
$29 mil MC
--"MAG Silver Corporation enters the silver market as a powerful force. MAG combines a seasoned management team with two drill-ready geological extensions of high-grade world class producing districts. MAG controls 100% of the Juanicipio property adjacent to the Fresnillo District in central Mexico, currently producing over 12% of the world's silver from high grade underground vein structures."
The geologist, Peter K.M Megaw, is also working with EXN.V, another high grade silver project. Peter's philosophy was that it makes sense to go after very high grade silver projects that will be profitable regardless of the silver price.
IAU.V ITDXF.PK (INTREPID MINRLS)
http://www.intrepidminerals.com/
scoates@intrepidminerals.com Stephen Coates, Investor Relations (416) 368-4525
51 mil fully diluted (April, 2004)
@ $.90/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = .67 US
$34 mil MC
$3.2 million cash from Dec. 9 financing.
Company's exposure is about half to gold, half to silver in several projects.
Joint Venture with BHP Billiton focused on "Cannington" style silver deposits using proprietary BHP Billiton data.
(all figures are "exploration potential")
El Salvador - 38.5 mil oz.
Argentina - 6 mil oz.
Total: 44 mil oz. silver
Total gold: ~690k oz. x 10 (10:1 ratio) = ~ 6.9 mil oz. "silver equiv"
Total: 53 mil oz. "silver equiv". (exploration potential or indicated or inferred, not reserves)
Additional comments: More drill results released on March 3:
Intrepid Intersects 10.3m (34ft) of 70.9 g/t (2 oz/t) Gold and 988 g/t (29 oz/t) Silver at Kamila, Argentina
The stock price exploded, nearly doubling, in response to the news of the above drilling results.
Since this company is about half gold and half silver, the 10:1 ratio really cuts down the "silver equiv" numbers, so keep in mind the "gold bonus" factor here. But it's like that with a lot of the companies on this list, so keep that in mind, and do your own math if you want to use the 70:1 ratio.
ECU.V ECUXF.PK (ECU SILVER MINI)
http://www.ecu.qc.ca/indexen.html
ecu@ecu.qc.ca (819) 797-1210
103.3 mil fully diluted shares = (6 January 2003)
@ $.35/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.26
$27 mil MC
The shares of ECU.V recently stopped trading recently. The exchange wanted them to update their website, particularly their listing of resources and reserves. See ECU Silver Mining Inc. Clarifies and Retracts Previous Disclosure
A new resource calculation is expected soon.
ECU.V is also exploring other gold properties.
Additional comments: ECU Silver Mining Private Placement
--April 15th for 2-5 mil units of a share and a warrant at .28 and .37.
ECU recently recovered title to properties that were in dispute. See: http://tinyurl.com/x691
ECU stock was recently stopped trading, due to updating their resource calculations. See ECU Silver Mining Inc. Clarifies and Retracts Previous Disclosure
CAUCF.PK (CALEDON RES)
http://www.caledonresources.com/
Shares Outstanding - 180,721,142
@ .15 at Yahoo!
(Mining in China)
It trades on the London Stock Exchange, under the symbol, CDN
$27 mil MC
MMM.TO MMAXF.PK (MINCO MINING)
http://www.mincomining.com/
investor-info@mincomining.ca 1-888-288-8288
23 mil Fully Diluted
@ $1.52/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $1.12
$26 mil MC
Located in China
2 gold projects and 1 silver (42% owned). Explorer
MAI.V MNEAF.OB (MINERA ANDES)
http://minandes.com/
ircanada@minandes.com (604) 689-7017 Art Johnson
90 mil shares fully diluted (April, 2004)
@ $.465/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.34 US
$31 mil MC
Raised $6.6 mil in recent financing.
owns 49% of the resource: "55 mil silver equiv. oz. resource" back in 2001. AT 60:1 silver:gold when gold was about $300/oz., about half/half silver and gold.
Estimated: 16.7 mil oz "silver equiv"
15 mil oz. silver + 1.7 mil oz. "silver equiv" of 170,000 oz. of gold.
They will be exploring for more: (The resources may be only 10% of the property.)
2.2 km stretch, open another 2.7, plus 3 other vein systems. significant high grade silver exploration potential. 7000 meters of diamond drilling. Plus a copper project, billion ton ore deposit.
Additional comments: Minera Andes plans to "fast track" to production. Expecting $.17-$.18/share Cdn earnings/year, as of April, 2004
Minera Andes Inc.: New Huevos Verdes East Drilling Intercepts Multiple Zones With Up To 63 g/t Gold And 1,690 g/t Silver - CCNMatthews
About half is gold value, half is silver value at 60:1. Minera Andes has several significant bonuses that my method is not valuing properly. First, I undercount the gold, of course, so consider there is a "gold bonus" at current gold prices. Second, they will be doing significant exploration work to increase their resources, and they have recently raised the money to be able to pay for that exploration work. Third, they have a copper project, and copper prices are rising. I moved MAI.V to the explorers list to be more fair to their valutation.
* EDR.V EDRGF.PK (ENDEAVOUR GOLD) (I own shares)
http://www.edrgold.com/
Hugh Clarke, Investor Relations 1-877-685-9775
23.7 mil shares fully diluted (April, 2004)
25.7 mil shares fully diluted (May 28th, 2004)
@ $1.32/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.98
$25 mil MC
As of May 28th, 2004, they have $9 mil Cdn cash.
If all options and warrants are exercised, they will have another $9.8 mil Cdn in cash.
They believe they may be a chance they will not need to dilute further to develop current silver production plans at the Santa Cruz Mine. Endeavour is not a "resource" play, but rather, a "production" play on silver. They are listed with the explorers because they do not have large drill results or a resource calculation outlining significantly large resources--they have only around 5 million ounces is all. But so they don't have a "prospective" mining property. Instead, they have a working mine! Like Hecla.
http://www.edrgold.com/s/SantaCruzMine.asp
--currently producing 600,000 oz. silver/yr.
--plans to increase production to 4,000,000 oz. silver/yr
Endeavour Raises CA $9.9 Million in Private Placement Financings Thu, Apr 22
I own shares of EDR.V
PXI.V PNXPF.PK (Planet Exploration Inc.)
http://www.planetexploration.info/mexico.asp
30.8 mil shares fully diluted (Jan. 2004)
@ .80/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.592
$18 mil MC
Planet holds an option to acquire a 100% interest in the high-grade 7,005-hectare Copalquin gold/silver property located in Durango, Mexico.
"Resource estimates on the property have not been calculated since the discovery of the high-grade vertical fault zone, its existence may significantly alter Kennecott's and Fransisco Gold's original target potential of one million ounces of gold and 50 million ounces of silver based on their interpretation of a low-grade horizontal quartz breccia formation."
* CBE.V CBEFF.PK (CABO MINING) (I own shares)
http://www.cabo.ca/
jav@cabo.ca (604) 681-8899 John Versfelt, President
Fully diluted subtotal, including shares needed to acquire two drilling companies, which is contingent upon a financing.
= 18,880,436 as of February 9th, 2004 (Post-Consolidated) not including recent financing, which still needs approval by the exchange, and when added, will increase the market cap by about $10-11 million or so?
@ $1.00/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.74
$14 mil MC
Additional Comments: Attention Cabo Shareholders: If you want to see the company move forward with the approval of the most recent financing, and the acquisition of the drilling companies, please contact John Verseflet at jav@cabo.ca (604) 681 8899, to get the shareholder approval form.
Mineral Property Acquisitions Near Sudbury, Ontario, Exploration Update & $7.187 million private placements closed.
I wrote an article on Cabo on February 10th. Market Perspective & Cabo Mining - Hommel
In the article, I highlight what I feel is Cabo's most imporant asset: control of 60% of the mining camp of Cobalt, Ontario. The "silver capital of Canada" produced historically, over 500 million ounces of silver.
Cabo has exposure to silver, cobolt, nickel, gold, diamonds, and drilling companies.
Regarding the contracts to acquire two drilling companies in Canada: With all the money raised lately by so many companies to do exploration work now that precious metals prices have increased, drilling companies are now in extremely high demand. Many explorers are saying they are having difficulty finding any drillers available!
To learn more about the mining camp town of Cobalt, there is a fascinating article detailing the history of the silver camp at http://www.cobalt.ca/cobalt/history.htm
I own shares of CBE.V
QTA.V QURAF.PK (QUATERRA RES)
http://www.quaterraresources.com/
Jay Oness Toll Free: 1-888-456-1112
60.6 mil shares fully diluted
@ $.40/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.30 US
$18 mil MC
Additional Comments: three main properties in North America.
The main exploration project is the Nieves, near the massive Fresnillo silver mine, owned by Penoles.
QTA.V is a Sister Company to Western Silver, WTZ above.
See also Bravo Venture, BVG.V, another sister company, with 34.5 mil fully diluted shares (April, 2004)
BZA.V ABZGF.PK (AMER BONANZA)
http://www.americanbonanza.com/
119 mil shares fully diluted Sept, 2003
@ $.20/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.15
$18 mil MC
American Bonanza Acquires High Grade Silver Property in Nevada & Goldcorp Exercises Warrants
DNI.V DMNKF.PK (DUMONT NICKEL)
http://www.dumontnickel.com
info@dumontnickel.com (416) 595-1195
60 mil shares outstanding (April 15, 2004) does not include options and warrants.
@ $.225/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.1665
$10 mil MC
Dumont still needs to raise and pay several million to clifton for 50%-60% of each property, and there are many properties. (See Clifton for more specifics on the JV agreement.)
Additional comments: Clifton's JV partner, doing active drilling work right now. And recent property acquisitions. I moved Dumont to the explorer category, because I really don't have any idea what percent of Clifton's property they may acquire, which depends on Dumont completing a feasibility study on each property.
There seems to be significant disagreement between Clifton's shareholders and Dumont's shareholders on which company has the better value. On the one hand, Dumont is the aggressive partner, since they are the one doing the acquiring. On the other hand, Clifton is the holder of most of the properties, and Dumont has to pay several million to acquire each of the many properties. This is a very complex deal.
I do not like JV agreements due to the complexity of trying to determine ownership which is contingent upon many unknown factors that might change in the future. One man recently offered me an interesting suggestion. He simply said, "Why not buy both companies?".
EXN.V EXLLF.PK (EXCELLON RSCS)
http://www.excellonresources.com
87 mil shares fully diluted (Jan 9, 2004 press release)
@ $.175/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.13 US
$11 mil MC
From http://www.smartstox.com/reports/excellon.html
indicated = 63,400 t x 2738 g/t x .03215oz./g = 5.6 mil oz. silver
inferred = 2100 t x 1,433 g/t x .03215oz./g = .1 mil oz. silver
"gross in-situ value of mineralization is $31.4 million."
EXN to own 51% of the project. Apex is the joint partner. 51% x 6.2 mil oz. = 3.16 mil oz.
(Company expects 114 mil shares fully diluted after takover of Destorbelle, needed to bring project ownership up to 51%)
Additional comments: "Excellon ...is exploring and developing".... "a Bonanza grade Silver deposit in Mexico." The geologist, Peter K.M Megaw, is also working with MAG.V. From J. Taylor's write up on 2002: "After subtracting capital cost of US $1.8 million, custom milling charges and operating costs, management believes this underground development mine can, over the next two years, generate US $15.8 million or nearly $8 million for EXN's 51% share." That was when silver prices were under $5/oz.! The company plans to use these proceeds to further drill and explore the property. They believe the property may contain significantly more silver, as if what's known is only the "tail of the tiger"; furthermore, they believe they can fund exploration by mining the high-grade silver deposit that has been partly drilled.
BCM.V BCEKF.PK (BEAR CRK MINING)
http://www.bearcreekmining.com/s/Home.asp
39.2 million shares fully diluted
@ $.49/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.36 US
$14 mil MC
--About 6 properties in Peru
NJMC.OB (NEW JERSEY MIN)
http://www.newjerseymining.com/
Fred or Grant Brackebusch minesystems@usamedia.tv
23.9 fully diluted Apr, '04
@ $.68/share US
$16.25 mil MC
New Jersey Mining Company (NJMC) is engaged in exploring for and developing gold, silver and base metal ore reserves in the Coeur d'Alene Mining District of northern Idaho also known as the Silver Valley - one of the world's richest silver districts.
CMA.V CRMXF.OB (Cream Minerals Ltd)
http://www.creamminerals.com/cream/main.htm
http://www.langmining.com/cream-mx/
34.8 mil shares fully diluted (March 31, 2004)
@ $.34/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.25 US
$9 mil MC
from: http://www.langmining.com/cream-mx/companyProjects_Summary.html
Project B: Potential Target: 400m x 500m x 150m x 2.5 t/m3 = 75,000,000 tonnes
Say at: Au 0.480 g/t Ag 149.33 g/t
Silver only, that's (1 gram = .03215 troy oz.) 4.8 oz./t x 75 million tonnes = 360 million oz. "exploration potential" in a low-grade deposit.
$9 mil MC / 360 mil oz. = $.024/oz. (exploration potential) --not a "resource"!!!
You may get 240 oz. of silver, per oz. of silver's worth of stock. (Compare to NPG.V)
Additional comments: Another silver property is the Kaslo.
"The Kaslo Silver Property encompasses the Keen Creek Silver Belt and is comprised of nine former high grade silver mines"...
Cream Re-Evaluates Silver Bear Zone Kaslo Silver Property, BC - CCNMatthews
* KG.V KDKGF.PK (KLONDIKE GOLD) (I own shares)
http://www.klondikegoldcorp.com/
70 mil fully diluted (Nov. 2003)
@ $.205/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.15 US
5 year high .30
$11 mil MC
This company has many silver and gold properties. Dennis Fong is also involved with GNG.V, Golden Goliath.
Klondike has one silver property that could be producing within weeks.
(I own shares of KG.V)
SML.V SMLZF.PK (STEALTH MNRLS)
http://www.stealthminerals.com
Email-Bill@McWilliam.com 604-306-0391 Bill McWilliam, Chief Executive Officer
48 mil shares (August 31- 02)
@ $.30/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.22
$11 mil MC
(NEW BULLET GP) name changed to:
Amerix Precious Metals Corp (APM.V)
www.amerixcorp.com
50 mil shares fully diluted (including 15 mil new PP)
http://www.newbulletgroup.com/financial.htm
@ $.28/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.21 US
$10 mil MC
APM.V has a gold deposit in Brazil that's bigger than the silver project in Mexico.
http://www.amerixcorp.com/mexico.htm
" If the deposit extends to considerable depth, as do many of the silver deposits in the region, it is reasonable to assume a deposit of 300 million ounces of silver."
Stroud Resources, JV partner, lists the deposit at 150-300 million oz.
http://www.newbulletgroup.com/April1820022.pdf
NBG.V partners with SDR.V
NBG.V to get a 50-70% interest.
50% x 150 mil oz.= 75 mil oz., 70% x 300 mil oz. = 210 mil oz.
$10 mil MC / 75 mil oz. = .138 oz.
$10 mil MC / 210 mil oz. = .049 oz.
Exploration potential = 42 - 117 oz. per oz. worth of shares.
SDR.V SDURF.PK (STROUD RSCS) (There is no PK symbol as yet) http://www.stroudresourcesltd.com/projects-santo.html gcoburn@stroudresourcesltd.com Mr. George E. Coburn, President Tel: 416-362-4126 87.4 mil fully diluted shares (April, 2004) @ $.205/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.15 $13 mil MC JV partner with NBG.V on Santo Domingo Silver Project in Mexico. 150 to 300 mil oz. exploration potential of the deposit. ownership is between 30-50%, so... 30% of 150 mil oz.= 45 mil oz., and 50% of 300 mil oz. = 150 mil oz. $11 mil MC / 45 mil oz. = $11 mil MC /150 mil oz. =
CHMN.PK (CHESTER MINING)
http://www.chestermining.com/
Bill Hoyt, 785-383-9246
" 2.3 million shares outstanding, positive working capital and no debt "
@ $4.00/share US
$9 mil MC
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031121/215141_1.html
Historic estimate: "defined Conjecture mineral reserves of 706,000 tons grading 11.8 ounces per ton (oz/t) silver"
-- the Conjecture Mine, with a lease-option agreement signed with Shoshone Silver Mining Company
= 8.3 million ounces of silver (leased out) Since Chester will be receiving royalties, it makes it harder for me to value this company.
EPZ.V ESPZF.PK (ESPERANZA SILVR)
http://www.esperanzasilver.com/s/Home.asp
20 million shares fully diluted
@ $.77/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = US $.57
$11 mil MC
"Esperanza Silver Corporation is solely dedicated to the identification, acquisition and exploration of new silver projects." Looking for high grades.
GNG.V GGTHF.PK (GOLDEN GOLIATH)
http://www.goldengoliath.com/
604-682-2950
32.4 mil shares fully diluted
@ $.39/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.29
$9 mil MC
Additional comments: Silver Explorer in Mexico in the the Sierra Madre mountains: Uruachic.
Doing active drilling on their silver property, Las Bolas, "in a month" (as of Oct. 7th). They hope to take a collection of old silver mines and make them open pittable. They have some very high grades from chip samples from the tunnels, ranging from 100g to 500g all the way up to around and over 1000g/ton of silver.
GPR.V GPRLF.PK (GREAT PANTHER RES)
http://www.greatpanther.com
Robert Archer, President, & Kaare Foy CFO: 604 608 1766
25.4 mil shares fully diluted April 23, 2004
@ $.50/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.37
$9 mil MC
MMG.V MMEEF.PK (MCMILLAN GOLD)
http://www.macmillangold.com/
25.6 mil shares outstanding (3q 2003 report June, 2003)
@ $.43/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.32
$8 mil MC
SHSH.PK (SHOSHONE SILVER)
http://www.shoshone-mining.com
Bill Hoyt, 785-383-9246
12 mil shares
@ $.57 US
$7 mil MC
In Cour d'Alene, near CDE, HL, & SRLM.PK
* KRE.V KREKF.PK (KENRICH ESKAY) (I own shares)
http://www.kenrich-eskay.com/
Toll-free 1-888-805-3940 or (604) 682-0557
16 mil shares outstanding. Use "fully diluted" to be safe.
@ $.48/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = .35
$5.7 mil MC
Adjacent to Barrick's silver property, Eskay Creek, which is "the fifth largest silver producer in the world".
70% of the rights to The Property was once almost bought by Homestake (which was acquired by Barrick) for $35 million in 1996, and Homestake was going to fund all exploration and development. The buy out ended when metals prices collapsed, and Bre-X hit, and when the majors cut back on exploration budgets to stay alive. This means the market cap of KRE.V may be worth 100% / 70% x $35 million, or $50 million, plus exploration and development costs, to a major mining company, and likely worth much more today, due to inflation of the dollar, and the rise in the price of silver!
I own shares of KRE.V
EGD.V EGDMF.PK (ENERGOLD MINING)
http://www.energold.com/s/Default.asp
Fred Davidson President (604) 681-9501 info@energold.com
16.8 million Fully Diluted (June 30, 2002)
@ $.62/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.46
$8 mil MC
PCM.V PAOCF.PK (PAC COMOX RES)
http://www.pacificcomox.com/
66 mil fully diluted Jan, 2004 (From Dec 11, 2003 press release and 2002 report)
@ $.07/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.05
$3.4 mil MC
LEG.V LEGCF.PK (LATEEGRA RSCS)
http://www.lateegra.com
Michael Townsend, President Toll Free: 1-866-669-9377 Richard one of the IR guys.
38.7 fully diluted? (Jan 7, 2004)
@ $.19/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.14 US
$5.4 mil MC
see also Teuton Resources Corp (TUO.V)
BGS.V BLDGF.PK (BALLAD GLD SLVR)
http://www.balladnet.com
16.3 mil shares outstanding
(fully diluted?)
@ $.25/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.185 US
$3 mil MC
Bonanza grade "grab samples" in southern Argentina near IMA.
32 oz./T gold and 22 oz./T silver grab samples.
* AUN.V AUNFF.PK (Aurcana Corp) (I own shares)
http://www.aurcana.com/
CEO Ken Booth 604-331-9333 kbooth@aurcana.com
45 million shares (fully diluted) (March 2004)
@ $.15/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.111 US
$5 mil MC
Drilling to commence on high-grade, gold-silver targets. (in Mexico)
(I own shares of AUN.V)
SRY.V (STINGRAY RSCS)
http://www.stingrayresources.com/
info@stingrayresources.com (416) 368 6240
5.9 mil fully diluted
@ $.82/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.61
$3.7 mil MC
- Current projects centered in the Sierra Madre Belt of Mexico
TUO.V TEUTF.PK (TEUTON RES)
http://www.teuton.com/
Dino Cremonese, P.Eng. President (604) 682-3680
20.6 mil fully diluted (July 28,2003)
@ $.24/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.18
$4 mil MC
April 20, 2004, Vancouver, BC -- 2004 Exploration Planned For Konkin Silver Property; Additonal Claims Acquired.
"Management of Teuton and Lateegra are highly encouraged by the prospective results from the Del Norte exploration to date
located in the Eskay Creek region"
ASLM.PK (AMER SILVER MINI)
2.75 million shares issued
@ $.97/share
$2.7 mil MC
Claim between CDE and the old Sunshine mine.
JV with CDE subsidiary until 2017. ASLM to receive 20% net royalty, & if silver prices reach $16.50 an ounce or above, the profit sharing goes to 40%.
Coeur d' Alene, Idaho
BBR.V BBRRF.PK (BRETT RES)
http://www.bmts.bc.ca/bbr/
17.2 fully diluted
@ $.20/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.15
$2.5 mil MC
Silver projects:
Yukon --grab sample of 611 g/t Ag
Argentina --samples from 31 to 5640 g/t Ag
ROK.V ROCAF.PK (ROCA MINES INC)
http://www.rocamines.com
14.3 mil fully diluted (July 15, 2003)
@ $.245/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.18
$2.6 mil MC
MTB.V (Mountain Boy Minerals Ltd)
http://www.mountainboyminerals.ca/
TEL: (250) 636-9283
11.6 mil shares fully diluted (Dec 1 2003)
@ $.195/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.14
$1.7 mil MC
http://www.stockhouse.ca/news/news.asp?newsid=1933880
high grade samples: 3640 g/T Ag to 45.5 g/T Ag
LSM.V LASCF.PK (Langis Silver & Cobalt Mining Co Ltd)
no website Patrick Sheridan Jr. President and Secretary-Treasurer Phone: (416) 628-5936
Langis has 11,565,890 issued and outstanding common shares. (not fully diluted)
@ $.21/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.15
$1.8 mil MC
CBP.V CPBMF.PK (CONS PAC BAY MIN)
http://www.pacific-bay.com/
Guilford Brett, IR (604) 682-2421
9.2 mil shares outstanding
@ $.10/share Cdn x .74 US/Cdn = $.074
$.68 mil MC
--CBP.V is the smallest market cap silver stock that I know of. $680,000 It is truly a "penny stock".
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Final Category: Silver stocks FOR YOU and I TO RESEARCH further:
I strongly recommend you try to "get ahead of me," and research these stocks to see if I left out any great values. I probably did. I simply did not have time, or could not yet find information (without using the telephone) on all the two key figures needed to get the "price per oz." in the ground. You need: 1. The number of shares fully diluted x share price to get the market cap. Then, 2., you need an estimate of the oz. in the ground. Usually, I've been finding the oz. in the ground resource estimates right off the company webpages, and I get the number of shares by looking for it burried in the financial statements like the quarterlies or annual reports, which are also usually right on the company webpages. Have fun researching for silver companies, and let me know if you find any good ones, and I'll add them to this list.
TBLC.PK (TIMBERLINE RES)
* PDO.V (PORTAL DE ORO RS) (I own shares)
Portal Resources Enlarges Arroyo Verde Project, Argentina - CCNMatthews
http://www.celticresources.com/
Grand Central Silver Mines Inc (GSLM.PK)
Malachite Resources MAR.AX
http://www.malachite.com.au/
Mascot Silver Lead Mines MSLM.PK
http://www.mascotsilver.com/
Coeur d' Alene, Idaho
"Though we have reserves and could conceivably mine them, it frankly makes no sense to do so at current prices. ... The end of the silver bear will bring a number of the now-dormant small companies back to life..."
Silver Buckle Mines Inc (SBUM.PK)
Coeur d' Alene, Idaho
Merger Mines Corp (MERG.PK)
Coeur d' Alene, Idaho
Mineral Mountain
Coeur d' Alene, Idaho
Metropolitan
Coeur d' Alene, Idaho
Independence Lead
Coeur d' Alene, Idaho
Silver Bowl
http://www.silver-bowl.com/
Coeur d' Alene, Idaho
--working to get a new stock transfer company
http://www.oxusgold.co.uk/ 216,559,942 Fully Diluted shares
oxus will spin off: Khandiza is a high-grade zinc, silver, copper and lead deposit located in the Sariasia region of southeast Uzbekistan.
Silver Mountain Lead Mines Inc (SMLM.PK)
Silver Verde May Mining Co (SIVE.PK)
Metropolitain Mines Ltd (MEMLA.PK)
Silver Surprize Inc (SLSR.PK)
Standard Silver Corp (SDSI.PK)
Horn Silver Mines Co (HRNS.PK)
(801)-281-5656
Andean American Mining Corp AAG.V ANMCF.PK
http://www.andeanamerican.com/
--concentrates solely in Peru
Peru currently stands as the largest gold producer and second largest copper producer in Latin America as well as the second largest silver producer in the world.
Silver Butte Mining SIBM.OB
http://www.umpqua-watersheds.org/local/mine.html
(mine abandoned in 1996, copper/zinc waste water?)
Here are a few more stocks to look up. I don't even know if some of these are silver miners.
Lfex - Lucky Friday Extention
Kcpm - King of pine creek
Vins - vindicator silver,
Osburn
Wallace
Silver Valley Resources
United Mines
APNE
ALS
Royal Silver Mines (RSMI)
Bunker Hill ?
Nabob
New Era
Sidney
Signal
Articles like this one, that present opportunities like these, can tend to move the markets in these stocks. So, be careful when buying. If you place any market orders at the open for any of these small stocks, you might end up buying at prices that are significantly higher than you intended. Limit orders might be better, but then, you run the risk of your order not being filled if the stock price exceeds your limit. And bid / ask spreads such as 15% on small cap silver stocks are not unusual. Markets can especially be moved given the wide readership on the internet. I've seen markets moved even by small private newsletters such as lemetropolecafe.com and silver-investor.com (I subscribe to both). Some of these stocks can move up 15%, 30%, 50% or even over 100% in a single day. Thus, valuations can change very, very quickly. So, be careful, and re-check the numbers if the prices move up. Do your own math.
Also note, the majority of these companies have an emphasis on silver. Most silver is produced as a by product of other mining, like lead or zinc or copper mining. Those companies that primarily produce other minerals are not featured in this report. This also helps to explain and prove, that silver is undervalued. If silver miners cannot mine silver profitably, and this report shows that to be true, then something is wrong with the silver price. It must go higher.
This report, and my method of valuing silver companies, depends on a much higher price for silver than exists today to be most accurate and most successful. If silver prices go up significantly, my picks will do well. If silver prices remain flat, then many of my picks should not do well.
To learn more about the silver market:
http://www.bibleprophesy.org/SilverStockExtra.html
http://silverminers.com/
http://www.silverseek.com/
http://www.gold-eagle.com/silver_section.html
http://www.gold-eagle.com/silver_section/reports.html
For information from the SEC on how to protect yourself from a "pump & dump" scam, see
http://www.bibleprophesy.org/SilverStockExtra.html
And finally, again, BULLION DEALERS:
http://www.goldismoney.com/buy-gold.php
Many people have told me that they don't get information this good even when they sign up for annual newsletter subscriptions from others that cost from $100 - $300.
The beauty of the internet is that it is helping knowledge to increase, and it is a form of communication that those who commit crimes of monetary fraud upon us cannot control. Please make the most of it, and please forward this on to others.
You can signup, or unsubscribe, to this report at
http://www.goldismoney.com/subscription-ss.php
Jason Hommel
GoldIsMoney.com
Final Disclaimer: I have not received any compensation from any public silver stock company for writing up my weekly report on "Silver Stocks--Comparative Valuations". I own shares of the following 16 silver stocks: CMA.V, PLE.V, PDO.V, AUN.V, EDR.V, KG.V, MGN, CBE.V, NPG.V, SVL.V, MMGG.OB, TM.V, OTMN.PK, FCO.TO, KRE.V, FR.V. These are required disclaimers by the SEC: whether I've been paid, and what I own. I believe the SEC intended this to be a cautionary note that I own these shares, not as a recommendation or endorsement. I reserve the right to buy or sell any stock at any time. I believe the SEC does not require a disclosure regarding finder's fees. Nevertheless, I have begun to receive "finder's fees" from a few companies.
-- Posted 6 June, 2004 | |
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Last Three Articles by Jason Hommel, Gold Is Money
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