A day's wage used to be a silver dime, a silver quarter, or maybe a silver dollar. A silver dime today costs about 45 cents, at $6.20/oz. for silver. About 900 million oz. of silver are consumed annually, and just under 600 million ounces mined annually. Oddly, there is is seven times as much refined gold as silver... Buy real silver, it is scarce, real wealth, and cannot go to zero value. By the time paper money fails mankind once again, as it always does, any silver dime you can lay your hands on will probably be worth more than what $100 to $200 will buy you today. This week's report lists the market capitalizations for 86 silver stocks. There are 31 silver stocks that list reserves, resources (and exploration potential) which I calculate by using my "ounce in the ground" formula. There are 54 explorers. There are about 30 additional "silver" stocks with incomplete information. This report goes out now to over 11,700 investors each week. Additions & Changes from last week are in bold.
How to read the table below: Stock Symbol that works at Yahoo! Finance (Company name) / The number that follows the company name, below, represents the company's resources, divided by the market cap as denominated in silver; thus, it is the number of silver oz. "in ground" that you gain title to when you trade away one ounce of silver to buy 1 oz. of silver's worth of stock. The number is the expression of leverage that silver stocks can give you, the higher the number, the better. / Next, I list the valuation price change since last week (and stock dilution, and resource changes, if any) as up/down or even. / Finally, there are additional comments (EXPT is "exploration potential")
Company names in bold have summaries below with updated information since last week. Click on the name to see the summary below.
This first list are the companies with information about reserves/resources/exploration potential. The list is ordered/ranked based on the resource picture. The most expensive (with the fewest silver resources given their market cap) are listed first.
ABX (BARRICK) 1.0 even --producer, hedger (15? mil oz. gold hedged, 3 yrs production)
Next list: Exploration companies or producers with limited information on resources. This list is in order (roughly) by market cap, the highest market cap companies are listed first.
This next list has silver exploration companies with market caps under about $30 million (Market cap = total number of shares fully diluted, times the share price. It's what the company is "worth" in the market place, given the stock price, and is one of the important numbers I calculate each week in these lists.)
This next list has silver exploration companies with market caps under about $4 million dollars: (The real "penny stocks" are those with the smallest market caps, not the lowest share price!)
* = I own shares. There are expanded profiles on each company, way below. But before I get to that, let me discuss my methodology, and the problems with it.
See the number above, listed after each company in the first list? That number represents the number of silver ounces in the ground that you get when you buy an ounce of silver's worth of stock. The number treats all reported ounces in the ground as equal, however, they are NOT EQUAL. Some ounces in the ground are more certain and others are more speculative. Some are higher grades, some are lower grades. Some have been well drilled, others have less drill results. They range from most certain to least certain such as: "proven & probable reserves," and then, "measured, indicated, or inferred resources." A reserve has a feasibility study produced for it. A resource, does not.
Here's the math on how I calculate that one number. First, I get a market cap by multiplying the fully diluted shares (which bullishly assumes all options and warrants will be exercised and converted into outstanding shares) by the share price in U.S. dollars. Next, I divide that by the silver price, so the market cap is denominated in terms of silver ounces. Then, I divide the ounces in the ground by the market cap as denominated in silver. This produces the single number of how many ounces of silver in the ground you are buying when you give up one ounce of silver in your hand, for shares of stock, instead. This way, you can not only compare silver stocks to each other, you can compare them to silver directly. This also helps people in other nations, using other currencies, to value these companies.
This valuation does not include zinc, or copper, or lead, but it does include gold at a 1:10 ratio of gold:silver. At goldsheetlinks.com, they add 100% of proven & probable reserves, but only 70% of measured & indicated resources, and only 50% of inferred resources. I don't do that. I count them as all the same.
I believe that the two most important numbers that a silver mining company can report are the resources in the ground, and the number of their fully diluted shares. Of course, there is much more to a mining company than that, but without those numbers, it is extremely difficult to even start an evaluation. This report highlights those key numbers, where possible. If you think those numbers are also important, please email the executives of the mining companies you own, and ask them to make sure their numbers are clearly published at their websites.
Problems with my methodology: My methodology assumes that the more ounces in the ground, is, in theory, best, given that I expect much higher silver prices. However, unless the price of silver really moves much higher, my methodology may not be the best one. If silver does really move up very high in value as compared to today, then I expect my methodology to be one of the best predictors of rising stock values, because more ounces in the ground mean more leverage to rising silver prices. However, the companies with greater leverage to the upside usually also tend to have greater leverage to the downside, and thus, tend to be more volitile.
Other factors to consider that the single number produced by my methodology does not: A resource calculation number does not tell you the entire picture about a company. The resource calculation number is designed as a starting place for further research. Other very important considerations are as follows: How much existing mining infrastructure is in place? The more the better, so think of it as a "bonus". How much cash does the comapany have on hand, and what is their burn rate? What is the management's attitude towards money, silver, hedging, debt, and dilution? This is why I list "additional comments" in the company profiles, below.
I don't consider grade to be too important (although I list it when I can), because I consider the cost to mine to be the more important consideration. The "cost to mine" is determined in a feasibility study, which is the last thing produced before trying to raise money for final construction of a mine. And usually, they cannot even count silver as a resource unless it is at least somewhat feasable to mine at today's prices for silver. And this is why I count all the ounces as the same. If a low grade ore can be mined more cheaply, and if a higher grade ore costs more to extract, and if it has to be somewhat economically feasible even at these low silver prices to be counted, it balances out quite nicely.
My methodology is the natural result of my study of the silver market and my religious views. To read about my religious views, see my other web site, bibleprophesy.org There are two essays near the top of the page that explain why I believe the entire world will return to using gold and silver as money again before the end times. See Ezekiel 38. Also, see my essay: Biblical Guidelines for Managing your Money See my June 18, 2004 article: I'm insanely bullish on silver.
To quickly "tab" down to the company you are interested in, note the symbol. Then hit "control-F" to "FIND" the symbol below. ___________ If I use a word you don't understand and is not listed in the dictionary at www.m-w.com you can look up the meaning at http://investorwords.com/
WEEKLY COMMENTARY (All new in this section):
My wife and I had a lovely wedding two Saturdays ago, and I love being married to my new wife, Shanna Hommel. We had a "honey-work" vacation to the Silver Summit in Idaho. We got married just in time! Due to the fact that I was travelling between Wednesday and Sunday, I did not produce a weekly report last week. I think this was the third time I've skipped one. Amazingly, since I've skipped a few, I've been doing this over a year now! Boy, does time fly by when making money!
Shanna video-taped me when I spoke, so my presentations will soon be available for purchase. I gave an hour-long presentation the day before the conference, which was followed by two and a half hours of questions and answers, for 3.5 hours total, but only the first two hours were taped. On the second day, I finished off the conference with a 15 minute talk on silver, and why it is money, and why the mining companies should use it as money.
The miners should not hold cash in the bank, they should hold silver bullion in hand. If the silver miners refuse to use silver, their own product, in the best and most useful way, as money, then who will? Miners need to be leaders, and promote their own product with their actions by holding their money in the form of silver!
The biggest development at the conference, in my opinion, was that many shareholders are now growing increasingly aware of this issue, as the major silver companies have just recently become cash rich due to financings and due to investor sentiment growing so bullish for silver bullion!
Attention Shareholders! The miners will not change, unless you demand change! I, alone, cannot continually badger the miners by myself effectively, especially if I'm not one of their shareholders. If you want this change, you have to contact management yourself! Ted Butler and I need more help.
If you are an owner of cash rich silver stocks, and if you are also a holder of silver bullion because you know it provides the necessary safety and liquidity for you, then you should demand that your mining companies also take advantage of the safety and liquidity that silver bullion offers its owners.
I think the top five silver miners have about a billion dollars in cash. With that money, if they bought silver, I think they could break the manipulation at COMEX. However, with the limits at the COMEX of 1500 contracts per person, and a possible total delivery limit of 1.5 million ounces in one month, would the miners even succeed in acquiring the silver they attempted to buy, or would they drive up the price with even less effort?
Let me state boldly that I have an agenda, a plan! Agenda--"2: an underlying often ideological plan or program"
My ideological plan is to convince people to use silver as money, in preference over paper cash. This will help the silver price more than anything, as monetary demand is everything! My plan is to convince shareholders to demand their silver companies to use silver as cash. Then, after all the top 4 or 5 silver miners have substantial silver bullion holdings, we can more easily and effectively get other public companies to invest their surplus cash into silver bullion to protect their money from continued dollar devaluation. (This is why it is so important for the miners to act! To get the miners to lead other public companies by way of example! Shareholders who own bullion are the real leaders, and will direct the companies they own to act next.)
After all, the public action of silver companies buying silver will be such a clear action that it will make the rest of the investment world wake up and take notice of silver!
The next public companies to convince, I believe, are the gold companies. Ending hedging is one thing. Ending the participation in paper dollar holdings is the next logical step, since the dollar is really a failed derivative of gold!
Step two really consists of getting public companies, who are not involved in the metals sector, to buy gold, but especially silver. The two most likely companies, I believe, are Ford Motor Company and General Motors. The reason is that these companies are widely recognized, and are the backbone of American industry. Also, they are excellent candidates because of the heavy debt load that these companies carry. Ford owes $180 billion! GM owes $280 billion! But their market caps are only around $25 billion! They each have billions in cash! Ford has over $15 billion and GM has over $25 billion. That GM has about as much cash as their market cap means that the market is strongly considering the possibility that GM may go bankrupt! Since they may go bankrupt (unless massive inflation saves them), buying silver bullion may be the only way that GM can survive! Why should I offer advice to companies in debt? Well, I have a bias against bondholders, since I know that usury is wrong. Therefore I would rather that GM protect their shareholders and pay back their bondholders with devalued paper money.
Now, contrary to Richard Russell's idea that excessive debt will create a demand for cash to repay the debt, and thus, deflation and increased value of dollars, (and reducing the value of precious metals). I believe the opposite will take place. After all, it is simply inconceivable that GM can sell silver or gold at today's prices to raise the cash to pay back their bonds! First, it's impossible because GM does not have any silver or gold, and second, GM would have to sell more gold than the US gold hoard to do that, and that is just not reasonable at all. Richard, are you listening? You have 12,000 paying subscribers I hear? Help them out, and start talking some sense on this topic, ok?
I believe, from my personal research and a look at the statistics from the silver institute and the CPM Group, that even one billion dollars of demand for silver will drive the silver price much higher. I also believe that Ford and GM will only be able to avoid bankruptcy if there is a massive inflation. I also believe that either Ford or GM could cause the inflation to occur that will save them if they merely put some of their corporate paper money into real silver money.
Example: If GM puts $1 billion dollars into silver bullion, it could drive the price to $20-50?/oz. Their next billion dollars could drive the price to $30/oz. Their third billion dollars could drive the price to $40/oz. By the time GM invests $10-15 billion dollars, the price of silver could be $100/oz. By the time GM invests $25 billion dollars, the price could well be $200/oz. Such growth in the price would then attract many other investors, who could well push the price of silver to $1000/oz. By that time, GM's investment in silver bullion could grow, as follows:
$1 billion at $20/oz = 50 mil oz. silver $1 billion at $30/oz. = 33 mil oz. silver $1 billion at $40/oz. = 25 mil oz. silver $15 billion at $100/oz. = 150 mil oz. silver $7 billion at $200/oz. = 35 mil oz. silver Total silver = 239 mil oz. silver --perhaps more silver than the world has, estimates of which range from 67 mil oz. to 600 mil oz.
Total value of that silver at $1000/oz.? $239 billion, which is slightly less than what GM needs to pay off their debt of $280 billion! Of course, if the silver and gold price "go to infinity" as the dollar fails completely, then their debt, and all debts, will be wiped out completely, and any and all silver bullion accumulated will be a substantial and necessary asset!
There is precedent that this can occur, since a few years ago, Ford stocked up on palladium when prices hit over $1000/oz., and delivery failures were happening.
It is ironic that government devalued and demonetized silver about 100 years ago by declaring that silver was not an acceptable form of payment for debts over $5! But as we know, nearly all such idiotic and false government decrees (such as "silver is not money" and "money (silver) cannot be used to repay debt") eventually cause the exact opposite to occur. Silver will soon be re-monetized as never before! The irony now is that the only way people will ever be able to pay off their debts is to start buying silver! The resulting price increase of silver, and inflation, will help the people, and large corporations, to get out of dollar-denominated debt. Please note that I am not advocating going into debt to buy silver! Debt is dangerous! And debt is especially dangerous when at an interest rate! And this brings me to my next topic, that of interest rates! UNDERSTANDING INTEREST RATES & COMPOUND INTEREST!
I have recently learned something staggering about interest rates that I must share. For few years, I have known that over a few generations, say 240 years, at 6% annual compounding interest, you can grow $1 into a million! (This is not common knowledge.) (More importantly, from this example, you can turn a million into a trillion!) This is an important concept, because it shows how those who lend money at set interest rates, 6%, with collateralized loans, can quickly gain world power over national governments. All you need is a religious code that teaches the next few generations of your children all about lending to strangers, and you have it. Interestingly enough, the Federal Reserve "earns" the "paltry" 6% per year on their dollars.
Now, this does not seem like such a tremendous insight, but wait. Over 2000 years, one dollar at 6% interest will grow to $385,855,472,630,337,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000! (or one ounce of gold will grow to that many ounces at 6% in 2000 years!) See why usury is forbidden?
I think that's about 4 x 10 to the 49th power! Such staggering numbers can only be comprehended when contemplating all the atoms in the entire universe! The point is that you certainly cannot own that number of ounces of gold, it's just impossible! But what are the implications of this?
Therefore, I began to think, and think really hard! Should it be impossible to earn more than 6% per year consistently? Yes, that is exactly the implication! But wait! It's only impossible to do "consistently", and only impossible at the very top of the growth curve at the huge sizes! So, there's more to it than that! For a few days, I mistakenly thought it would be impossible to expect growth of more than 6% per year, no matter how much money you have, but that's just not true at all!
It is not wrong to earn or grow more than 6% per year! You should expect to grow far beyond that if you are a small business, or small investor! For example, a kid should be able to buy a can of soda pop at a discount store for 25 cents, and sell it later that same day to a classmate for 50 cents to a dollar and earn a whopping 100% to 300% return in a day! You can grow fast when you are small! It's much harder to grow when large! (Try convincing the kid to carry 12 soda cans, and to work to sell 12 cans a day, and it becomes a real chore to grow that 100%, and earn $3!)
Two more examples showing that rapid growth is good: First, a fertilized egg cell will grow at a fantastic exponential growth rate, as the cells continually divide into two, very rapidly at first. And second, God said to "be fruitful, and to multiply" in Genesis. You just can't keep growing at 6% when you get to a monster size, there is an upper limit to growth!
Now, when I realized this concept, that fast growth can only occur when you are talking about small money, and that when talking about extremely large money, you can only grow at 2% per year or less, I realized that there are tremendous misunderstandings and lies being told about the kind of growth rates the average investor can expect! The professional money managers on TV will often say that you, the small investor, will be lucky to grow your wealth beyond 10% or 20% per year! Nothing could be further from the truth! The small investor is the most able to grow, and should be able to expect growth of perhaps more than 100% per year! I'm doing much better than that, and I'm a rather large investor! It is the supremely large investors who have a much harder time growing!
Now, to teach yourself how compounding interest rates work, open an Excel spreadsheet. Name a box, for example, the C2 box, "rate". Do that by clicking on "insert" at the top, then "name", then "define". Name it "rate". In that box, you will put 1.06 to reflect a 6% rate, or 1.1 to represent a 10% rate, or whatever you wish. In a new column, starting at A1 or B1, enter a 1, the number that will be compounded. Below that box, in A2 or B2, enter the following equation at the top in the blank space called "formula bar": =(A1)*(rate) You have to put in the equal sign to make it work. Next, highlight the second box. Next, put the cursor over the lower corner of the second box, until it turns into a small "plus" sign. Next, drag the cursor lower, perhaps 200 or 2000 boxes lower. It should create automatically a whole list of compounding numbers that grow ever larger. For example, box 3 should be =(A2)*(rate), box 4 should be =(A3)*(rate), and so on. To see the full numbers, you will need to expand the column wider by clicking and dragging the line between the A and B columns at the top.
If you set this up in an Excel spreadsheet, you will have a handy way of seeing how your own portfolio may grow over time if you earn a 50% annual return, or 200% annual return by investing in silver stocks, which I think is rather conservative, given how small the entire sector is right now, at only about $8 billion dollars total!
Now, here are some really startling facts about interest rates! Consider human growth rates, and the population of the earth! Do the math using the spreadsheet, as I've shown you. How low does the rate have to go in order to get about 6 billion people at the 6000 year mark? Change the rate until "year 6000" is about 6 billion people, and start with 2. What is the rate? The "rate" is 0.365, less than 1%. Creationists use this to show that humans have not been evolving over millions of years, and goes to show that modern man was created about 6000 years ago, as the Bible states. Now the evolutionists will point out that this means nothing, because human populations are sometimes wiped out (just like investment gains sometimes are lost). I will counter that human populations rarely decline, and they do so typically only when civilizations end, which tend to happen when people stop using gold as money, and when enslavement through usury runs to excess!
Now, why did I discuss human growth rates? Because they are strikingly similar to gold growth rates! There are about 4.8 billion ounces of gold in the world that have been mined in all of human history! The amount of gold in the world, per person in the world remains remarkably constant at about .75 ounces per person. This does not mean there is "not enough gold" it means there is not enough gold AT TODAY'S PRICES!
Also, therefore, it is next to impossible to grow real wealth, in real terms, (gold), more than .0365% if you owned, for example, over half of all the gold in the world. This goes to show how dangerous it is to allow at law, or guarantee with collateral, any interest rate whatsoever for those individuals who own nearly the entire world!
The point of all of these "growth rate" exercises is to show that tremendous portfolio growth happens greatest when much smaller amounts of money are involved! And therefore, it is extremely good that the size of the silver market is so small. In fact, these exercises help to prove that the massive exponential growth rates we've already seen, an average of 314% gain in the silver stocks for 2003, in a market that is now about $8 billion, and is real money, will likely continue for quite some time.
And speaking of big money, bonds and the housing market, both are set for a fall. Too bad they can't grow a tree to the moon!
So, these interest rate exercises show why the housing market, a $20-30 trillion market?, is supremely overvalued, and cannot continue to grow at recent growth rates.
And this finally brings me to the news on Freddie Mac and Fannie May. I think the "accounting irregularities" are only the tip of the iceberg. I believe the true scandal will prove to be worse than Enron. They have interest rate derivatives that are sensitive to changing rates and counter-party risk such as people walking away from their home mortgages? That's not a sound business plan!
------------ Looks like the dollar is headed for a big fall, as the bond market has no buyers, and Bill Gross, the most important bond manager in the world, has been bearish on bonds for a while now, but he is putting forth a greater warning now. Also, there is news that the bankers want to devalue the dollar another 20%, which would take the gold price to $500 to $550 quick.
Thu September 09, 2004 02:12 PM ET
By Wayne Cole
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Treasuries prices turned lower in choppy trade on Thursday as an auction of U.S. government debt drew almost no private demand, leaving the dealer community holding a pile of paper.
"It was an extremely ugly auction. And that's something nobody wants to see, not the Street and certainly not Treasury given the amount of borrowing they have to do," said Sadakichi Robbins, head of global fixed-income trading at Bank Julius Baer
The sale of $9 billion in reopened 10-year Treasury notes went at a high yield of 4.195 percent, well above expectations, and drew bids for only 2.12 times the amount on offer, down from August's 2.90 level.
Indirect bidders, including customers of primary dealers and foreign central banks, picked up only 2.8 percent of the issue. That compares to 54 percent in the original sale of the notes and 38 percent at the last reopening.
----- Do you have any idea what that means? They tried to sell $9 billion worth of bonds, and only sold $250 million worth of them to "indirect bidders" which is the general public! I could raise $250 million for the silver stock mining world in a heartbeat if I had a large enough audience to tell the story to! Give me about an hour on CNBC, and I'll raise a billion!
But I predicted exactly this, that they would not be able to sell bonds, which will be a disaster since they have a $600 billion deficit to finance! I said, "How can they sell bonds, when they have been buying bonds to prop up the bond market, and keep interest rates low?" So, this is exactly why interest rates will be rising, and why the value of the dollar will be going down, and gold will be going up.
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Next, Bill Gross, who is probably the most important bond manager in the U.S., who has been bearish on bonds for a while now, is now very bearish on bonds! Warning to bondholders (usurers) that they will NOT get what they think is coming to them (a real return). Instead, they will be receiving much less, and the usurers will get what they deserve!
As reported by lemetropolecafe.com (which is why I'm a subscriber, and suggest you subscribe, too, or at least sign up for the two week trial) Bill Murphy wrote of Bill Gross:
Bond guru Bill Gross of Pimco came out with his October 2004 outlook and it created quite the stir. Titled "Haute Con Job" he sounds a bit like some of us in the GATA camp, except he just can’t bring himself to calling a "spade a spade":
"Deceptive hedonic/substitution adjustments also serve a government burdened not only with hundreds of billions of annual deficits as far as the eye can see, but ladened with a demographically aging U.S. workforce rapidly approaching Social Security time. By fudging on inflation, they pay less and the amount could cumulatively run into the hundreds of billions over the next few decades. They disserve, of course, all of those who receive social security, as well as other private pensioners dependent on an accurate accounting of prices paid. They disserve buyers and holders of TIPS – inflation protected securities – which adjust inadequately to a faulty and near fraudulently calculated CPI that one day could total billions of dollars per year for TIPS holders. And they disserve all owners of U.S. Treasury obligations – including foreign central banks and institutions – who mistakenly assume that they are earning a real return over and above inflation, and that the dollar upon which they are denominated is justifiably strong because of GDP growth and productivity numbers that are pumped by hedonic magic to resemble the Arnold Schwarzenegger of 1980 instead of his verbal “girlie man” analogy of today."
"No I cannot sit quietly on this one, nor as I’ve mentioned, have other notables in the past few years. The CPI as calculated may not be a conspiracy but it’s definitely a con job foisted on an unwitting public by government officials who choose to look the other way or who convince themselves that they are fostering some logical adjustment in a New Age Economy dependent on the markets and not the marketplace for its survival. If the CPI is so low and therefore real wages in the black, tell me why U.S. consumers are resorting to hundreds of billions in home equity takeouts to keep consumption above the line. If real GDP growth is so high, tell me why this economy hasn’t created any jobs over the past four years. High productivity? Nonsense, in part – statistical, hedonically created nonsense. My sense is that the CPI is really 1% higher than official figures and that real GDP is 1% less. You are witnessing a "haute con job" and one day those gorgeous statistics just like those gorgeous models, will lose their makeup, add a few pounds and wind up resembling a middle-aged Mom in a cotton skirt with better things to do than to chase the latest fad or ephemeral fashion. If those Moms are holders of government bonds based upon a benign outlook for inflation, they had better cash some of them in, especially at today’s 4.0% yield for 10-year Treasuries."
Now, Bill Gross's "sense" is that real inflation is 1% higher than they say. However, if you count in all the things they exclude, such as food, energy, medical, housing, education, and adjust based on the average of what people spend on these things, I strongly suspect that inflation is running along at about 8-10%! About 6 months ago, I read an article that calculated the price increases on everything that people spend their money on, and in the proportion that they spend it, and inflation was running at 7% or so.
COMING NEXT, the 20% dollar devaluation (planned inflation!)!
UK Paper Says Pressure Grows On G7 To Agree to U.S. Dollar Devaluation By Neal Keane - Dow Jones Newswires - Sunday, September 26, 2004 LONDON -- U.S. President George Bush is being urged to signal a dollar devaluation of up to 20 percent to rebalance the global economy ahead of Friday's Group of Seven and International Monetary Fund meetings in Washington, the U.K.'s The Business newspaper reported.Senior U.S. administration officials in Washington have over the past few days tried to influence the White House and U.S. Treasury to put pressure on the G7 to agree to a dollar depreciation in its final statement, the newspaper said.Recent data have shown the U.S. current account and trade deficits running at record levels, and economists have said a dollar depreciation is needed to rein these in. The euro was quoted at $1.2260 in late New York trade Friday, compared with $1.2273 on Thursday. The dollar was fetching 110.64 yen versus 110.63 yen, and 1.2624 Swiss francs versus 1.2598. The pound was trading at $1.8041, up from $1.7982. The G7 will also call on the world's oil producers to take further action to bring down prices, The Sunday Times reported. Crude oil reached almost $49 a barrel in New York Friday, amid continued concerns that high energy costs will sap global growth. Spurring economic growth will be high on the agenda at the meetings of G7 finance ministers and central bankers next week, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said Friday. "The promotion of economic freedom, opportunity and growth throughout the world will be a key topic," he said in a statement in New York City. G7 officials meeting in Washington next week will be representing Canada, Italy, France, Germany, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S. Officials from China will also be present. By Neil Keane; Dow Jones Newswires; +44-20-7842-9495; neil.keane@dowjones.com
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At the Silver Summit I saw a movie presented by David Morgan on the failure of LTCM. The hope of the geniuses at LTCM was to "eliminate risk" through taking two opposite derivative positions, and learning how to put an accurate price on the said derivatives or options, that other traders might not know how to price as accurately, and thus, earn the difference! But they were thinking of eliminating the risk of volatility, or eliminating the risk of positions going down, and they forgot about eliminating or reducing the risk of counter-party default! The only thing that cannot "default" on you is real payment in full -- real gold and real silver bullion. To eliminate the risk of not getting paid, you have to have already received payment in full, in advance! And even that can "default" if it is destroyed through war or a natural disaster, or lost, or stolen!
This brings me once again an occasion to mention my essay, The Moral Failures of the Paper Longs - 22 January 2003. Those people who think they can win by betting on derivatives, futures contracts, or options, are forgetting completely about the dangers of counter-party risk! They also forget the two essential features of gold that make gold and silver so valuable. First, real gold and silver do not expire! They last over time! Second, gold and silver are payment in full! Paper promises are not!
Gold and silver are also so valuable because they are limited! You cannot grow piles of gold and silver to the sky at 6% forever! There is an upper limit to gold and silver accumulation--limited to no larger than the number of ounces that the human race has accumulated up to now, which is about 150,000 tonnes or about 5 billion ounces. (Plus the 1.6% per year of about 2500 ounces of gold that is mined each year.) And these days, the enormous piles of paper money that exist in the world will serve as a reminder that the rule "first come, first served" is true in a world of limited resources, and unlimited paper money.
Next, where do you get silver bullion? I have found only about 5 bullion dealers in the U.S. that may have over 100,000 ounces of silver bullion available, listed here. JM, the largest refinery, and perhaps a few others, and that's it. I researched this, and called about 10-15 bullion dealers to locate these "top 5", because of my own portfolio needs. My next bullion order may be about as large, and I wanted to know, in advance, where I could get that much silver. Therefore, I know the bullion market is very tight, and very small! I believe delivery defaults are coming. They are already here if you consider delays and limits as defaults!
There is one dealer that I'd like to discuss, NorthWest Territorial Mint. I believe they are the largest mint in the US that is making the 1-oz. silver "rounds", which are just a one ounce silver piece. They therefore also have the lowest price, about 45 cents over spot in large quantities.
NWTM flew me out personally to view their mint. They are a large mint, and were in the process of expanding their bullion department, with ongoing construction for about 4 more desks for the bullion department. They employ about 50 people at the mint, and mostly make money from minting commemorative brass medallions. They had 4 people in the art department who paint and colorize coins. They have about 5-6 people in the marketing and PR departments. They have several people in the computer department. They have a huge industrial floor filled with refining and minting equipment. The day I visited and toured their mint, they were refining and minting about 50,000 ounces of silver bullion, melting down the silver, and minting silver rounds.
NWTM also this week just sent me a check for $1000 for estimated "commissions", since I have linked to them at my websites, and have been discussing them in this commentary.
At the Silver Summit, I mentioned my concerns about delivery delays, and I have been forwarding a few complaints directly to Ross Hansen, the owner and operator of the Mint. In the audience at my speech, a man I trust said he recently ordered 90% silver bullion, which arrived in about two weeks, which is just fine.
Now, I suspect that the longer delays are coming when people order silver rounds. I believe that NWTM is taking people's money, using it to place an order for silver from other dealers, which may take a while to arrive, and then they have to mint it into rounds. This is a process, since they probably do not have a huge inventory of silver rounds at the moment of high demand. Also, I suspect that many people are sending personal checks in the mail, which there is and additional 10 day hold time due to default risk from check fraud. And this adds about 2 weeks to the order in many cases, that several people may be forgetting to count.
To find bullion in large quantities often takes a while, even if you were to order from COMEX, which is the location of last resort and the highest price. Other dealers or refineries often will sell excess bullion to other dealers like the NWTM, because it's a better price than shipping silver to the COMEX, but probably only in limited quantities.
NWTM had about a million dollars worth of inventory in the form of palladium one-oz. bars. Ross indicated to me that inventory is often in different forms in the bullion business. You may have mostly 100 oz. bars, and the customer wants only rounds, or you may have mostly rounds, and the customer only wants 100 oz. bars. Or you may have only 15 bags of 90%, and the customer wants 25 bags!
NWTM appears to have a communication problem right now, and perhaps an inventory problem with 1 oz. silver rounds. They should be indicating to customers at the time of the order about how long it may take.
Now, if I were a bullion dealer, which I'm not, I would have two prices. The lower price, about 1-3% over the bullion price, would be if the customer would bear the default risk, and if I would use their money to buy silver bullion for them, and act as their broker. That kind of order, naturally, would take longer to fill, and default would depend on the reliability of a third party. The higher price, about 10% over the bullion price, would be if I, as a dealer were to bear the default risk, as I would sell bullion from out of my own existing inventory, and act as a dealer (not a broker). I would be bearing the default and price risk as I would have to order more bullion for myself, which I may or may not receive from the third party. A customer, when ordering, should make sure which way the dealer is going to act; whether as a dealer and selling out of existing inventory, or as a broker and buying from another dealer.
It sounds complex, but it's really rather simple, and this system is what keeps prices fairly even across many dealers in the nation, and is why even one large order can move prices up worldwide. ---------------------
Here is an outstanding guest commentary on silver:
Want a Time Machine?
I love the thought of beginning to build some family wealth that can be passed down through generations. Each generation should protect and build on their families wealth, unselfishly and in appreciation and respect for the efforts and sacrifices of those that have gone before them. I like the idea of passing down 10% of my life's earnings. And teach my children to build that wealth for future generations and purposes bigger than their own desires. Remember, income is stolen through taxation and inflation, wealth is not.
BUT I am so very blessed because I can do a lot BETTER than that. Not only can I leave 10% of my life's earning I can make up for several past generations that didn't get in on all the fun. I fully intend to leave many generations of wealth for my family. In fact I already have it for them, it was very easy to acquire and it is completely tax free.
You see there is a form of wealth that has been transported through time at such a huge discount that you can replace your Grandfathers life savings and his fathers before him and many fathers before that with just a few weeks of work. A time machine that gives 100 years wealth for 1 years work.
What makes it sweet justice, is the system that has destroyed honest money, and has put the working man between the twin grind wheels of taxation and inflation, is the system that gives us this opportunity.
Money as we know it today is nothing but a ponzi scheme, where an ever increasing amount of worthlessness is exchanged for goods and services. To make this possible it was necessary to "get rid of" honest money. After all, there is no such thing as an honest ponzi scheme. So, get rid of it they did, no longer is paper money kept honest with gold or silver backing.
For many, many generations honest men earned an honest days wage of from 1/4 to 1 ounce of silver. And in a free economy with an honest money, you would never have to make any more than that because the natural force of deflation, caused by ever increasing productivity would make products cheaper all the time, your quality of life would continually get better because your money would continually be more valuable.
BUT WAIT if honest money should continually be worth more, how much is that 1 ounce of silver your Grandfather earned worth today. I know that farmers are hundreds of times more productive than they were in days gone by. So are transporters. So are construction crews. So are manufacturers. I would think that a man today produces way more than twice what our grandfathers did. What this means is that if we worked for half (or less) of our grandfather's pay we should have an equal living standard. Prices would have been cut in half (or more) because of our increased performance. Therefore if our economy were free and our money honest a days wage today could be 1/8 TO 1/2 OUNCE OF SILVER (or less).
Oh yeah, the time machine. A man works about 40 years. To pass down 10% of his life's earning to his children he needs to save 4 years of income. Figuring 250 workdays a year, each generation should pass down 1000 days worth of work. Well, using the high end of the scale of 1/2 ounce of silver per work day, each generation should add 500 ounces of silver to the family wealth. I intend to leave my entire net worth in the form of silver to my children, this will be several tens of thousands of ounces representing at least a thousand years of savings.
So there you have it, a thousand years for one life time.
Tom's commentary to friends and family received one reply:
Hi dad - what is an ounce of silver worth today compared to what it was worth 20 years ago?
And Tom's reply:
Ahhh My young, sweet little lad, your time frame is soooo short. You see, 20 years ago civilization was still, for the first time in the history of mankind, living in a world where all the moneychangers (central banks) were undisciplined by the chains of gold and silver, just as we are today. Your question has several answers, I am assuming that your frame of reference is "Dollars". It is very difficult to divorce oneself from a dollar reference that is so pervasive yet so dishonest. When a person values an item in dollars just the fact that a time frame is necessary for the value to have meaning. proves. that in fact. it has no meaning at all. An item that cost $1 in 1910 was very expensive an item that cost $1 today is very cheap!! No one except the very very rich could have shopped at the 99 cent store in 1900. Yet it is not wealth and value that is changing it is the dollar!!
An ounce of Silver is "Worth" between one and two days labor. Nobody, not even money printers, can take the labor of generations and make it disappear. This world was built with men working for 1/2 ounce of silver a day. And because men are becoming more efficient all the time silver is becoming more valuable all the time. This is why there is no need to derive interest when holding silver or gold, it is its own reward.
Your entire life has been spent in an economic "time warp". Nature has a way of cleansing herself and righting the ship. It is this righting of the ship that I believe is beginning at this time. Part of the warp, is a depression of the gold and silver price to give the appearance that paper money has more value than it does, a sort of confidence game. This allows for the opportunity that I see.
OH by the way 600 years ago silver was worth 700 "DOLLARS". But of course at that time there was no such thing as a PAPER dollar.
By historical standards I am filthy rich, by today's standards mankind has filthy money.
In the press release, they write as if they expect to see silver prices higher than $8.25/oz. "The options [for outgoing president Leonard Kaplan] will vest on the earlier of the third-year anniversary of the requisite shareholder approval or the third consecutive day the silver closing price exceeds $8.25 per ounce."
They also boast that they have $400 million in cash and equities, and that they expect to produce 27 million ounces of silver per year once they put their Bolivian exploration property into production.
Wouldn't you think that they would take care to make sure silver prices rose, and stayed there, before initiating such a huge production decision? Especially in light of the fact that energy costs have risen faster than silver prices? Shouldn't they wait until after silver prices rise higher than energy costs? These seem to be rather basic questions. And since they will be waiting anyway, as they have stated that they plan to produce no sooner than 2007, it seems unbelievably ridiculous that they continue to hold cash instead of silver bullion in the meantime! They are going to wait more than 2 years, or even 3 years, and sit in cash all that time as they expect the silver price to rise! What are they thinking? More than likely, they not thinking! Apex alone has enough cash to clean out the COMEX! Here is proof:
45.3 mil oz. of silver is in the registered category, available for delivery against futures contracts. x $6.90/oz. = $312 million dollars! Less than the cash of Apex silver! But no, Apex will probably watch the silver price continue to rise, while the value of their cash is continually destroyed. I spoke with Igor Leventhal (investor relations of Apex) about this at two gold shows now, and he is firmly opposed to buying silver bullion, with not a single rational explanation available. Apex mostly has institutional investors, who probably could care less about maximizing shareholder's dollars, the institutions probably just want to "park" a miniscule bit of their funds into what they think is a "leveraged silver play". But the cost of Apex's silver ounces in the ground, as astute readers of this silver stock report know, are among the highest available! Investors will get what they deserve, don't they? And this also goes to show why it is so difficult for those people with "tons of money" in the multiple billions of dollars to actually get 200% returns!
------------------ Here are a few GREAT recent essays, in case you missed them:
The Hommelburg essay is OUTSTANDING! It presents exactly why the junior stocks are among the best investments right now. In sum, the majors have stopped exploring since about 1996 as the gold price dropped, threatening their continued solvency. Then on top of the bad news of the low gold prices, as gold prices recovered, the majors discovered the pain of hedging and locking in a price for gold that ends up being lower than the rising market price! So, as gold prices rose, the majors have continued to struggle for survival, and have continued their neglect of exploration, for nearly 8 years now! Their neglect is now our opportunity!
Comment: For the last twenty years silver has spent most of the time trading between $4.25 and $6.50 per ounce, well below the record $50.00 it hit when the Bunker-Hunts tried to corner the market in 1980. This March prices spiked dramatically higher on the break above $6.75, to $8.43, then retreating even more quickly from the most overbought situation since 1987. They based against $5.35 in May, the mean of the last twenty years, and are re-testing important long term resistance between $6.50 and $7.00. This time around silver is not as overbought, bullish momentum is strong, and there is a clear desire to build long positions. A monthly close above $6.80 or a weekly close above $7.00 could set off yet another very dramatic rally to the $8.50/$9.00 area. A weekly close below $5.25 would force us to review.
Strategy: Buy at $6.20/$6.00, adding to $5.75; stop below $5.20. Add to longs on a monthly close above $6.80 and on a weekly close above $7.00. Medium term target $8.00 and probably $9.00/$9.50 if enough momentum builds.
--------------------- By the way, base metal prices for zinc and copper have hit new highs in quite some time this week. Zinc is up to .49/lb from about .45 a few weeks before and Copper is at $1.41/lb. from about $1.20-$1.30 a few weeks earlier. This will drive interest and buying into many of the silver/zinc and silver/copper companies on this list--that may help to push up share prices next week. See http://www.metalprices.com/
--------------------- This month, I've done more trading than usual, and I've bought 6 silver stocks. Although you can note which stocks I've bought if you've been paying close attention to the free reports, you don't know how much of each I've been buying. But if you buy the look at my portfolio, you can see which stocks I've been accumulating the most of--in case you find that additional bit of information helpful.
People always want to know about my recent buys. And why? Because they represent the accumulation of knowledge of silver stocks that I possess, and it is thus a good summary of my trading experience, which has now proved to be quite good. If you have not bought the look at my portfolio, or if you bought it only once before, this is a good month to take another look, or begin an annual subscription. I just updated the "look at my portfolio" last night, on Sept. 30th, so subscribers can log on, and see the changes.
Now, I just discovered something, that I realized that I should probably promote. My top three holdings have outperformed all my other holdings by far! The gains, as of Sept 30th, since I bought the stocks, are as follows:
My #1 holding: up 346% since January, 2004, is my second best pick! My #2 holding: up 401% since December, 2003 is my best pick! My #3 holding: up 221% since December, 2003 is my third best pick!
So, I realized... and wrote to my paying subscribers...
That's a wonderful track record, especially since I bought all three less than a year ago, around the start of the year! But it's even more spectacular when you consider 2004 was a "down year" for the precious metals and silver stocks so far. Prices since Jan., 2004, for silver stocks in general are down 5% for 2004, and there is not a single silver stock on my list of over 100 that has outperformed my top three... deals. It just now hit me how blessed I've been by God and by my readers who have helped me to find these opportunities. Only two other stocks came close, and that is Endeavour Silver and Portal Del Oro, each up about 130% since Jan 2004. I don't know if my picks today on the open market will match the performance of these top three private placement deals, but I expect that a few may do so, and just look at what I've been buying lately!
Furthermore, I've only written a "feature article" on one of the companies. I have not even written a special article on the other two! And I'm a promoter! How neglectful of me!
So, why haven't I promoted the other two companies harder, or even the performance, in the past year? I don't know. I make perhaps two orders of magnitude more money from the performance of the portfolio than I make from people signing up to look at it. And I suppose I like a little privacy, after all, private property requires privacy. I primarily offer this thing you can buy because so many people hit me up for specific stock tips, and this is the most fair way to do it. Also, it helps to pay the webmaster teams, and it is a source of "sustainable organic growth" that helps pay for other promotions.
---------------- To read about my religious views, see my other web site, bibleprophesy.org There are two essays near the top of the page that explain why I believe the entire world will return to using gold and silver as money again before the end times. See Ezekiel 38. Also, see my essay: Biblical Guidelines for Managing your Money ----------------
Because I have a market reach, I also receive a lot of tips about silver stocks. And thus, I believe I may have invested in some of the best ones that came my way. If you believe I may have an edge based on my work and unique position... then the best way for me to share this with you is to is tell you more precisely where I put my money. It's not investment advice. I offer a monthly "look at my portfolio". I do not issue recommendations, and I don't list number of shares or the size of my portfolio, but I will show the top investments in my portfolio, by rank, updated monthly. It includes which stocks are 9% and more of my portfolio, those between 9% and 6%, under 6%, under 3%, and under 1%. I have two web sites, and two different customer support teams. If you have any questions about billing or order fulfillment, you need to contact the appropriate support staff team, and not me. I manage a large portfolio, create this weekly report, handle private placements, do radio interviews, web marketing, go to the gym, try to live a life, and I don't have time to process billing requests. I don't bill any cards anyway, and I can't check or fix your order status. My support staff handles all of that.
To order at: GoldIsMoney.com Price: Various packages ranging from one month to one year, from $34 to $295 --most savings Customer Service: support@goldismoney.com The toll free telephone customer support line is: 877-895-6824.
----------------- Private Placement Opportunities for Sophisticated/Accredited investors: (This is not a solicitation for any stock, and I'm not brokering any securities) To be added to my PP email list, sign up here: GoldIsMoney.com
You can sign-up, or unsubscribe, to this report at GoldIsMoney.com or silverstockreport.com.Help your loved ones avoid the ongoing collapse of the dollar. Protect your inheritance. Please tell your friends and family about this silverstockreport.com
-------------------
I will be speaking in Idaho at the Silver Summit in September 23-24 Specifically: Thursday, Sept 23rd at 10:00AM, for one hour (maybe more) planned to be in the Idaho Room, North (No extra cost, no pre-registration. I don't do futures contracts! So, it's first come, first served--like silver itself, and like private placements. Get there early if you think it will be busy. I can't tell what kind of crowd there will be. When I spoke in Vancouver in June, about 10-15 people had to stand.) http://www.silverminers.org/summit/index.html
I will be speaking in Toronto at the Cambridge Gold Show on October 3-4. http://www.goldshow.ca/
Toronto schedule: SUNDAY, Oct. 3 10:30-11:00 Workshops - 1/Bishop2/Hommel 3/
1. Richard Greene, thundercapital.com $100,000 minimum, 2 year hold, sophisticated/accredited investors only. Will use margin, and/or short sell.
2. Philip Judge or Simon Heapes, anglofareast.com Less than $5000 minimum? No margin or shortselling.
------------------- General Commentary on Silver (slightly modified from last week):
Now, I think it's time that the silver community started a letter writing campaign to the editors of newspapers around the world, to tell them about silver.
Here is a sample letter:
May 21, 2004
Dear Editor,
I'm a silver investor. I believe paper money is fraudulent. There is over 30 trillion dollars, U.S., worth of bonds in the world, but less than 2 trillion dollars worth of gold, according to gold.org.
As of April, 2004, the size of M3, the money in U.S. banks, has reached 9.1 trillion dollars, yet due to fractional reserve banking, the total of U.S. currency and coin in circulation is only 724 billion dollars as reported by treas.gov.
At silverinstitute.org and cpmgroup.com, they each report that silver has been in a deficit for about 15 years, where world mine supply has been about 500 million ounces, scrap supply about 200 million ounces, and industrial and jewelry demand about 800 million ounces. The difference, about 100 million ounces, has come from investor and government selling, drawing down reserves of silver. Known supplies of refined silver are down to about 250 to 600 million ounces. At the COMEX, they are down to 48 million ounces of silver left that is registered for delivery, which you can see at nymex.com.
The governments of the world are printing up too much paper money, and the world is running out of real money, silver. I believe this will lead to the price of silver rising dramatically in value, around the world.
I urge your readers to verify the statistics I have provided, and to make their own decisions.
Sincerely,
Jason Hommel
------------------ I wrote an article: Miners to Use Silver as Cash - 27 November 2003 Apparantly, I was about 6 months too early in my predictions, but that's ok, I'm a very long term thinker and investor. I did not miss the mark by too much time, and if you think in terms of decades, I was right on the mark. There are several companies that are increasingly deciding to hold their cash in the form of silver bullion. These companies are:
SSRI SSO.V (SILVER STANDARD RSC) SRLM.PK (STERLING MINING) NPG.V NVPGF.PK (NEVADA PACIFIC GOLD) EDR.V EDRGF.PK (ENDEAVOUR SILVER) And PAAS (Pan American) is now thinking about it. ------------------ The Silver Valley in Idaho is bringing back the use of silver as money. A silver one-ounce coin, a "Sterling" to be used as a $10 piece. http://shoshonenewspress.com/index.asp?Sec=News&str=2869 ------------------
For news on the New Hampshire Sound Money Bill, that proposes to use U.S. Treasury minted Silver Eagles and Gold Eagles as money see: http://www.goldmoneybill.org/
The two reports present the case that about 500 million oz. of silver are mined each year, about 200 million oz. of silver comes from scrap, and about 100 million oz. of silver comes from investor dis-hoarding, either by individuals or government sources, in order to meet the annual demand of about 800 million oz. of silver by industry & jewelry. This is wildly bullish, because investors are net selling more than buying, and I think the potential of investor demand is huge, and can be measured by seeing how much paper money there is in the world. --------------------------
Here are two U.S. Government produced reports on silver, containing data on years from 1900 to present, on U.S. & world production, and U.S. consumption, and U.S. industry & government stockpiles.
-------------------------- Silver consumption, per capita, in the U.S. is the same today, in 2004, as it was in 1945.
And what is the per capita consumption of silver in the U.S. today? 5500 tonnes x 32152 = 177 million ounces of silver used per 285 million people. 177 / 285 = .62 oz. silver consumed per year, per person, in the U.S., whether in 1945, or in 2004. Each person in the U.S. today, on average, uses 6 tenths of an ounce of silver. --------------------------
As the New York Times, January 11, 1859, page 2 said--- "It is well known that the most colossal fortunes the world ever saw have been based on silver mines..." --quote found by Charles Savoie ----------------------------
WHERE and HOW to BUY SILVER BULLION GoldIsMoney.com ---------------------------- My 2004-2009 price predictions for gold and silver: 2004: $595/oz. gold, 50:1 ratio = $12/oz. silver 2005: $1011/oz. gold, 30:1 ratio = $34/oz. silver 2006: $1719/oz. gold, 10:1 ratio = $172/oz. silver 2007: $2923/oz. gold, 5:1 ratio = $ 585/oz. silver 2008: $4,969/oz. gold, 1:1 ratio = $4969/oz. silver 2009: $8448/oz. gold, 5:1 ratio = $1698/oz. silver 2010+: infinity dollars/oz. gold, infinity dollars/oz. silver.
I calculate the gold price rise by guessing that by 2009, M3 will have a "gold-value" like it did in 1980, which is to say, M3 was worth 2 Billion oz. of gold or less. It also assumes M3 will about triple in that time. These figures are conservative, because I see no reason that M3 should be valued more than the gold the U.S. actually holds, which is a mere 261 million oz., not billion. Today, the M3 value is $8870 billion / $425/oz. = 19 billion oz. of gold M3 could buy in theory. The silver:gold ratio is also a very, very vague guess, reflective of monetary demand chasing silver, which is more scarce than gold in above ground, refined form. I have no idea when the ratio of 15:1 will be exceeded, I'm just totally guessing. I suppose it could happen this year or next month for all I know. Of course my real price targets are infinity dollars per oz. for both gold and silver when all is said and done, I just don't know how long that will take, nor what year it will be. But my point in producing the price predictions is to show my bullishness for silver and gold.
Note, there is virtually no monetary nor investment demand. Note, the 2002 mine production (585 mil oz.) is greatly exceeded by industrial, photo, and jewelry demand. (838 mil oz.). Note the chart on page five, "Supply from above-ground stocks".
The difference between mine supply and industrial demand was met by a combination of three factors: 1. Government selling, 2. Private selling, 3. Recycling
U.S. government selling is ending, as their stocks have run out, or will run out. This factor will reverse, because the U.S. government will need silver to continue their coin program, and/or need silver when they wake up and decide they need to replenish their strategic stockpile for domestic security. Silver is a war material. China's selling of silver will also likely turn into buying, as China will need silver for continued industrial development, or when they also lose faith in the U.S. dollar.
Private selling has been rapidly shrinking and is now almost ended, and should turn into buying, and become monetary demand. Monetary demand is everything in the silver supply / demand situation. It's not now. Now, it's nothing. But it will become something incredible, because the dollar is dying.
---------------------------- The following is a "must read": Ted Butler's best ever explanation of how silver is manipulated lower than it should be. http://www.investmentrarities.com/11-04-03.html
Ted correctly points out that a lower price creates excessive demand from consumers. However, Ted Butler does not point out, and neglects to mention, that a perpetually low price also creates lack of demand from investors who are "trend investors".
I think most silver experts over-analyze all the supply and demand factors of the silver market. No factor is more important than monetary demand. The force of photographic demand is like a light breeze compared to the hurricane or tornado of monetary demand. Monetary demand is everything. ----------------------------
Consider the gold market for a moment: Even short selling at the COMEX is nothing compared to monetary demand. The short position most certainly helps to depress the price of gold as the short position is growing larger. However, it adds fuel to the fire if there is short covering, and thus, it can boost the gold price later. But the commercial short position on the COMEX is next to nothing compared to the non-reported "over the counter" trading that is done that does not appear on the COMEX.
(Numbers in metric tonnes, 32,152 oz. per tonne.)
870 tonnes -- the paper position at the COMEX, 280,000 contracts for 100 oz. each. 5,000 tonnes -- the official number admitted that the central banks have sold. 15,000 tonnes -- the number GATA research shows that central banks have sold / or leased. 30,000 tonnes -- the number of official central bank gold, minus either the 5000 or 15,000 tonnes. 145,000 tonnes -- all the gold mined in the history of the world. 2,600 tonnes -- annual mine supply 4,000 tonnes -- annual demand
And all of that is nothing compared to the amount of dollars out there that exist that could buy gold. $20 trillion bonds, $9 trillion M3 = $29 Trillion. A mere 1% is $290 Billion, which, at $500 /oz. is a massive demand of 18,039 tonnes. Do you understand what that means? That means that far, far less than 1% of dollars, in either bonds or M3 can buy gold, because there simply is not that much gold available.
Long before 1% of U.S. paper dollars tries to buy gold, gold will be going up well over $1000/oz., and silver will be headed up over $50/oz.
---------------------------- To scare away investors--that is the entire reason gold and silver are manipulated in the first place. Only the trend investors can be deceived. The problem is that nearly everyone is a trend investor. Very few investors understand value. If people knew the facts and used their brains, the available above-ground refined silver would be gone by tomorrow, and the price would be well over $20-50/oz. But don't trust me, check the numbers and follow the links:
"The money chart"
1,000,000,000,000: 1 Trillion dollars 1,000,000,000: 1 Billion dollars 1,000,000: 1 Million dollars $200,000,000,000,000: Estimated total derivative exposure of all banks in the entire world. (20 x U.S. GDP) $75,000,000,000,000: U.S. Govt. unfunded liabilities; social security, etc. $45,153,000,000,000: U.S. Household wealth, as of first quarter, 2004. (Includes Real Estate, and investments) $33,000,000,000,000: World bond market, yr end, '01: http://tinyurl.com/vr7u
$26,400,000,000,000: World stock market, June 2002: http://www.nyse.com/press/1044027443845.html $20,200,000,000,000: U.S. bond market, yr end, '02: http://tinyurl.com/vr7g $11,447,800,000,000: U.S. GDP, 2004 q1 http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn/home/gdp.htm $11,300,000,000,000: NYSE U.S. stock market, April, '04 (363 bill/s x $31.14/s ave.) http://nyse.com (See: Market info: quick facts) $9,274,000,000,000: M3 (money in U.S. banks) July, '04 http://tinyurl.com/vra0 $7,337,786,947,237: US debt, Aug. 20-04 http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm $2,360,000,000,000: U.S. annual budget 2005 http://tinyurl.com/3xbd2 $1,860,000,000,000: World "official" gold mined in all of history, 145,000 T (4.6 bil oz.) @ $400/oz. http://tinyurl.com/vrcc $400,000,000,000: Estimated silver mined in all of history: 40 billion oz? @ $10/oz. http://snipurl.com/93j1 $724,174,342,365: Total U.S. paper currency & coin in circulation, Dec. 31, '03 http://www.fms.treas.gov/bulletin/index.html $700,000,000,000: U.S. annual budget deficit (current). $272,000,000,000: Market Cap of Microsoft (03-2004) http://tinyurl.com/vrcn $222,000,000,000: M3 increase (money in U.S. banks) from Jan 2004 to April 2004 (in three months). $180,000,000,000: Debt of Ford Motor Co. (03-2004) http://tinyurl.com/vrd1 $166,200,000,000: U.S. current account deficit (trade deficit) for 2Q 2004. $104,400,000,000: US gold, 261 mil oz., @ $400/oz. http://tinyurl.com/vsr9 $100,000,000,000: all the world's gold stocks/equities (estimated?) $75,000,000,000: Money flowed into Equity funds in the first quarter, 2004 $8,226,000,000: all the world's "primary" silver stocks (80 of them on this list, as of June 25, 2004) $6,710,000,000: 671 mil oz. of "identifiable" silver bullion left in the entire world, according to GFMS @ $10/oz. $358,000,000: 51.1 mil oz. of "registered" COMEX silver bullion @ $7/oz. http://tinyurl.com/vrcw
So, what do all those stastistics mean?
For a while I was using M3 and dividing that by the US gold (261 million ounces), which implies the us dollar is 84 times more valuable than it should be, and that gold should hit $34,000/oz. after the fraud is destroyed. Today, I realize I need to add in the Bond market, because bonds are an asset class designed to siphon away and replace real money, which is to say, gold. This gives a price of about $111,111/oz. for gold. At $ 430/oz, this implies that US bonds and paper currency are 258 times more overvalued than gold.
Gold is overvalued relative to silver, because at current prices, it takes 60 ounces of silver to buy 1 ounce of gold. Historically, this ratio was 15 or 16. Given the silver shortage, this ratio will hit 10:1 or 5:1, or even 1:1. Thus, gold is perhaps 60 times more overvalued than silver.
Silver is overvalued relative to certain select silver stocks, perhaps by a factor of 3 or 10 or 20 to one.
Thus, if you multiply all those numbers, 258 x 60 x 10, You will see that bonds and currency are overvalued relative to select silver stocks by a factor of 154,800 to one. In other words, if silver stocks reach their true value, and paper currency disappears as it always does, then you might expect certain silver stocks to go up in relative value by a factor of 154,800 times more than they are worth today. By that time, you should definitely sell the silver stocks, and buy gold.
Can silver stocks really appreciate so much? Is there historical evidence for such a crazy thing? Yes.
See http://www.sterlingmining.com/old.html Excerpt: "CDE rose from penny stock status (.02 in 1967) to an NYSE-listed, $60 per share stock in 1980. In fact, the average share on the Spokane Stock Exchange rose in value nearly 16000% (yes, sixteen THOUSAND percent), as America could not get enough of silver and silver stocks."
CDE rose by a factor of 3000, or 300,000%, and by 1980, the metals boom was stopped short, and paper money's death was postponed. If paper money dies a death that lasts a generation world-wide, then even greater gains should have been expected.
For this reason, a wise silver stock investor should NEVER sell silver stocks for paper cash. A wise silver stock investor who looks for value would never sell a fairly valued silver stock for an overvalued silver stock that traded for hundreds of thousands of times more value than it should be. Likewise, there is no excuse for a silver stock investor to have any cash or money market or bonds in his portfolio for any reasonable length of time, except for when selling one silver stock to raise the cash for another silver stock, or for when you need to raise the cash to buy silver, or a private placement in another silver stock.
So, if you want some fairly liquid alternatives to cash, in case you don't know what other silver stocks to buy at the time, here they are: 1. Buy silver. You can hold silver in an IRA. 2. Buy CEF. Central Fund of Canada, ticker symbol CEF. It's gold/silver bullion fund. It has 50 oz. of silver for every 1 oz. of gold. The fund is fairly liquid, you can buy it as easily as any other stock, and is a good cash substitute. Unfortunately, given the current ratio, about 55% or more of the value is in gold. 3. Buy a fairly large cap silver stock, with fairly large volume, that is stilll fairly cheap on the list. Canadian Zinc, Sterling Mining, IMA Resources, and perhaps Mines Management and Cardero are probably the best five candidates. These all have market caps ranging close to $50-$100 million dollars or more, and are more liquid than many others. (I used to recommend PAAS and SSRI for this kind of "liquid alternative", but they are no longer relatively cheap, and the others have now increased in liquidity, and are now much more suitable for this kind of trading.)
----------------------------
The sheer stupidity of big money not recognizing the value of the world's remaining silver is utterly shocking to the rational mind. Clearly, bond holders are utterly deceived, and totally unaware of the situation. All my readers should understand and know that bonds were originally invented to suck the capital and money (gold and silver) away from the people. Bonds today are a paper promise to repay paper. What a con game! Are bond holders conservative and safe? No, they are fools! There is nothing safe about holding a paper promise to receive more paper when we have been experiencing hyperinflation for the past two and a half years!
---------------------------- And the fund investors who buy paper silver futures contracts instead of real silver are a very odd bunch of fools, for they should realize that nobody can deliver 800+ million ounces of silver promised in the paper contracts and options that does not exist. It's like the paper longs are betting on the bank run happening, but they all are making sure they get at the end of the long line. Instead, they could go front and center, where there is an open window available where you can go and get physical silver, and nobody is there. Idiots! If you know a bank run is going to happen, and you are actually willing to bet on it, then go and withdraw your money before it is too late! Don't bet on it happening, which, if it does happen, your contracts will be defaulted on! Amazingly blind idiots. Wake up!
How bullish am I on silver? Here's an interesting way to put it: "60 times infinity" dollars per ounce.
I believe the dollar will eventually be destroyed, likely within my lifetime, hence the "infinity" part. I believe the ratio of silver to gold may be equal during a spike, when the market realizes that above-ground refined silver is more rare than gold. Thus, silver may outperform gold by a factor of 60 times better. Currently, the ratio is 60 ounces of silver can buy one ounce of gold or 60:1.
I may end up selling silver for gold, some at the 10:1 silver to gold ratio, some more at 5:1, and I would sell any silver remaining at a 1:1 ratio, that we may hit during a supply/demand crunch during a paper money collapse.
How we can tell if silver is leading gold, or if gold is leading silver? IE, which is going up more, faster than the other? The way you can tell is by looking at the ratio. If the silver:gold ratio is going up (say, from 60:1 to 80:1), then gold is moving up faster (because it takes 5 more silver oz. to buy an oz. of gold. If the ratio is going down (from 60:1 to 40:1), then silver is moving up faster. So, keep an eye on the ratio.
A good web site that hosts posting boards for many of the smaller canadian stocks (that Yahoo! finance does not have boards for) is stockhouse.com Click on "Bullboards". ----------------------------
This is a list of primary silver stocks.
I count a company's ounces of gold as 10 oz of silver. Why? Because I have a very strong positive bias in favor of silver over gold.
Given my bias in favor of much, much higher silver prices, then, to me, the grades of silver are far less important than buying more oz. in the ground. More oz. in the ground at a lower cost is the most important consideration for me.
My method is simple. Cost per ounce in the ground. How much do you get (silver reserve totals), and how much does it cost (market cap)? The cost is the market cap divided by the silver reserve totals. Cheaper is better. Buy low, sell high.
Disclaimers, Warnings, and Advice: I have gathered the information below over the course of several months. I believe it is accurate to the best of my ability. I have made mistakes in the data from time to time. I'm human. I have collected the information from public sources such as company web sites and public information found at yahoo.com to get the stock prices. This report in no way guarantees the accuracy of the information below, since the information may change at any time. The number of outstanding shares can change as a company engages in new share issues to raise more capital through private placements, or if outstanding warrants (and options) are exercised and converted into shares, or if shares are bought back. Shares can be consolidated, or split. The number of ounces of silver in the ground can also change, as these are often only estimates. The number can also change up or down, depending on drilling results.
This report is not investment advice. This report contains information that may or may not be up to date, and may be inaccurate. I urge you to contact the company and do your own research to verify the information contained in this report.
This report is not an offer to buy or sell any securities. I am not a broker. Only your broker can buy or sell securities for you.
I urge you to consult with your investment advisor to determine whether these kinds of investments are right for you.
I also caution you to be aware of your investment advisor's advice, they are sometimes paid to push things like mutual funds, bonds and other securities that may not be in your best interest to buy. Some investment houses are short physical metal, and thus, they may attempt to strongly discourage you from buying precious metal or precious metals investments. I believe that the propaganda machine in support of frauds such as bonds and the dollar is so strong, that they may even believe what they say when they give bad advice to avoid the safety and protection of precious metals. It is most likely that they simply do not understand the precious metals market as well as you do.
All total estimates of "ounces in the ground" can vary widely. There are "proven and probable reserves" which are the highest category of certainty which is obtained through many drill holes, and then at the least accurate, there are "inferred resources" which are hardest to estimate. Additionally, every miner always has "more silver properties that need to be explored, which probably contain more silver". For the purposes of this report, I have added all those numbers together. It is believed that all these "ounce in the ground" estimates can be profitably mined at $5-6 per ounce silver, or lower. Thus, I believe that when silver trades for $15/oz. or above, that all of these ounces can be mined at a substantial profit.
I may be wrong. (I probably make mistakes in every article, and there have been updates and corrections made each week, especially as prices change.)
Mining is a risky business. You need to be willing to sustain a total loss of your investment for various unforeseen accidents. Silver stock companies can do stupid things to shareholders such as take on debt, or issue more stock at too low prices which reduces the percentage of the company you may own (dilution). Yet, they need to issue shares to raise capital for drilling, and then an even bigger dilution to build a working mine. They may sell YOUR silver too cheaply, or worse, hedge the price of YOUR silver just as it begins to go up if they lock in a price which then proves to be too low if the dollar is destroyed. Mining is a risky business as estimates of assets in the ground can change. There is political risk and environmental risk. They can't franchise the business, are stuck in one location, are subject to government confiscation, or taxes, or union wage negotiations, and corporate looting.
Do your own research. Be responsible for your own investment decisions. Again, please, before investing in a mining company, call up the company, and speak either with the CEO or the Investor Relations contact person.
Contact the company. Check the company web site, read the annual reports, check my numbers, check my math, and email the company. That's what they are there for, to answer your questions, and to speak about the opportunity of the company. Don't trust everything you read over the internet. I am a biased source. I own silver mining stocks. And I'm not a broker, nor an investment advisor. I'm just a private investor trying to make sense of this crazy world, and sharing my information and thoughts on silver companies.
Beware of scammers. Surely, there are scammers in the mining industry in the past, and there will be scammers in the future. Remember the fraud of Bre-X. The new 43-101 compliance laws put in place after Bre-X will not prevent a "certified" geologist from lying if he feels lying will create a better payoff. The Bible warns, "trust no man", yet at the same time advises us to "cast our bread upon the waters", and to not issue "false allegations" against others. Physical gold and silver provide the "payment in full" as long as the coins or bars themselves are genuine and not fake.
This report may be copied, and transmitted by other people, and may become outdated by the time it reaches you.
I can't tell you how you should invest your money, of course. The reason is that I don't know how convinced you are of the silver bull market, nor do I know how soon you will be needing the money back, so I don't know how long you can wait to see results, nor do I know how much liquidity you need. Nor do I know the size of the money you have to invest. It is very hard to invest large quantities of money in a small market cap stock.
That being said, my investment strategy seems to be working for me, so far. And so, here is how I have started an initial valuation process of the following silver companies to guide my own investment decisions.
---------------------------- (Market cap is always converted to US dollars and denominated in US dollars because I divide by ounces of silver, which are also denominated in dollars)
The Market Cap is the usual tool to value a company. It is what the company "costs to buy" if you could buy the entire company, all the shares, at the latest share price. It is calculated by multiplying the share price, by the total number of shares that the company has issued. In reality, you could almost never buy an entire company at the price of the Market Cap, but only a small portion. Usually, even small buying pressure, such as trying to buy 1% of a company, can push up the price of a stock by up to 10-50% higher. In my reports, I list Market Cap in terms of millions of dollars as "$75 mil MC".
To calculate the Market Cap, I try to get and use the number of "fully diluted shares". A company creates shares when they sell them to investors in what are called "private placements", or "initial public offerings" (IPO). These usually consist of shares and warrants, sold for cash that the company will need to grow and expand.
The "outstanding shares" is the number of shares that exist out there if you count them all, and it does not count the warrants, which are like options. The investor can "exercise the warrants" which is a right, but not an obligation, to buy more shares from the company at the set price of the warrant.
If the company does well, and the stock price moves up, all the warrants will be, or should be, exercised and converted into shares, especially if they become "in the money", and the warrants are significantly cheaper than the stock price.
Now, "fully diluted shares" is the total number of shares, plus the warrants, counting warrants as if they were all exercised and became fully trading shares. I think "fully diluted shares" is a better number to use to calculate market cap than by using "outstanding shares" as most do.
Finally, I go beyond valuing a company based on Market Cap alone; instead, I value a company by dividing the Market Cap by the assets of the company, which are usually the silver reserves in the ground. Thus, I can get a sense of what you are getting for what you are paying. And then, I denominate the whole thing in terms of silver, and not dollars, to get a more constant measure.
---------------------------- (These first four companies, BHP, GMBXF.PK, KGHMand BVN produce a lot of silver, but look to be way too expensive to buy for the silver exposure for your portfolio.)
BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP) http://www.bhpbilliton.com/ web.queries@computershare.co.uk IR --'produces 40 mil oz. silver annually from one mine' Additional comments: unfortunately, BHP has a 57 Billion market cap, so we can't buy BHP for the silver exposure. IE, $53 Billion / oh, say, 1000 million?????= $53/oz.
Dear BHP: By all means, keep mining the silver if you want the silver exposure, and want to be in the silver business. But don't sell the silver. Keep it. Let the profits of your entire company accrue as an increasing physical supply of physical silver. In fact, do as Buffett did, and buy more silver if you can. It would be infinitely easier for you to buy silver from yourself than it would be to buy 40 million ounces of silver from the COMEX, which, today, might be impossible.
Silver Wheaton http://www.wheatonriver.com/index.php/str=9,mod=cnt,act=cnt,id=120 "Silver Wheaton will have approximately 724 million common shares outstanding" $70 million Cdn financing at $.40 Cdn, with 1/2 warrants at .80 Cdn. 175 million units and 87.5 million warrants. 724 million shares outstanding + 87.5 mil warrants = 811.5 mil shares fully diluted. @ $.40/share Cdn x .77 US/Cdn = $.308 US $250 million MC.
Wheaton River has a market cap of 1.47 billion at $2.58/share. I have no idea of the quality of the silver properties, but somewhere in the back of my head, I remember removing WHT from my report when I discovered that about 10% of their money came from the production of silver. As a gold company, I have not listed them. For the market cap to be $250 million, with a $70 million Cdn private placement already done, there is serious, serious, big-money demand for silver focused investments out there in the world right now.
Wheaton River plans to wait until October 15th to spin off some silver properties. See http://www.wheatonriver.com/
KGHM Polska Miedz http://www.kghm.pl/en/index.php ir@kghm.pl --KGHM is the world`s sixth-largest coppper producer and second or third in silver. 1163 tonnes of silver produced in 2001. 1163 x 32152oz.tonne = 37.4 million ounces of silver produced in 2001 --Copper/Silver mine in Poland. --Market capitalisation is about $$1.52 billion.
Grupo Mexico SA de CV (GMBXF.PK) http://www.gmexico.com/ http://www.gmexico.com/Html/contactUs.htm 651,646,640 shares (2002 annual report) @ $4.00/share $2606 mil MC "Grupo Mexico ranks as the world's third largest copper producer (copper at $1.24), fourth largest producer of silver and fifth largest producer of zinc." They produced 28.2 million oz. of silver, worth $129 million, in 2002. (P. 5, annual report.) Total value of produced metals: $2527 milllion. (but the company lost money in 2002). They mainly produce copper, 900,000 tons worth $1.5 billion in 2002. Thus, silver, at 2002 prices, is only 5% of their production value. Silver is a by-product for them, not a main product. I don't have silver reserve figures, nor do I see any need to find them or add them, since they are not a primary silver producer, and I don't think anybody would be buying them for the "silver exposure". If we assume 280 mil oz. of silver (ten years reserve for production), then we stilll don't have anything exciting for the silver alone. $2085 mil MC / 280 = $7.45/oz. cost.
Compania de Minas Buenaventura SA (BVN) http://www.buenaventura.com/ dhuguet@buenaventura.com.pe (IR) NYSE:BVN - Peru´s largest publicly traded pprecious metals company --produces over 10 mil oz of silver per year --looks way too expensive for the silver alone: 2.7 Billion market cap. -------------- -------------- --------------
ABX (Barrick) http://www.barrick.com/ investor@barrick.com (IR) 535 million shares outstanding(1 Q 2004) @ $21.05/share $11,261 million Market Cap 5.5 million oz. / year gold production. --production hedged out for 3 years worth of total production, or about 15 million oz. (most notorious hedger of the industry, the "leader") --price of hedges locked in near the market lows, perhaps $340/oz. on average, nobody knows for sure, because Barrick will not say --reportedly, Barrick is trying to "unhedge". --reportedly, they plan to deliver 1/3 of production to hedges, which means they "might" be hedge free in about 10 years. --the size of the hedge, 1 Q, 2004: 14.7 mil oz. gold, at $400/oz., would be valued at $5.9 billion dollars. --but they claim to be "debt free", if you ignore the gold they owe for delivery, at locked in, low prices. (only true if gold is not money) --cash: $850 million Silver Reserves reported to be 850 million ounces! Gold Reserves reported to be 86 million oz. (x 10 = 860 mil oz. + 850 silver = 1710 mil oz. "silver equiv.") $11,261 million Market Cap / 1710 mil oz. = $6.59/oz. silver You may get "approx" 1.05 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock, if the silver and gold was not hedged--but 30 mil oz of silver may be hedged.
Additional comments: Barrick earns $26 million in first quarter. x4 = $104 million, which gives a P/E ratio of 103. Ouch, that's high. The hedge book loss was $10 million.
Over the years, Barrick has hedged their production, which many claim has helped to depress the price of gold and silver, by artificially adding to supply. (Barrick's promises becoming the extra supply.) The declining price of the precious metals has put other miners out of business, which Barrick has acquired at low prices. If Barrick goes bankrupt due to their hedges, and rising gold and silver prices, then perhaps Barrick's many properties will, once again, be sold at distressed prices.
Around the spring of 2003, ABX made an announcement about covering 30 million ounces of silver they sold short. Then, a large buyer showed up in the futures contracts for about that amount.
1 Q 2004 note on hedging silver, p. 33: "At March 31, 2004, we had fixed-price commitments to deliver 22.3 million ounces of silver over periods primarily of up to 10 years. We also had written silver call options on a notional 7 million ounces of silver with an average exercise price of $5.76 per ounce. These options expire at various dates in 2004 and 2005. The options are classified as non-hedge derivatives for accounting purposes. Looks like they never closed out the silver hedge, but that they just bought options or futures that expired.
I expect silver bullion to continue to outperform ABX stock at these prices. I don't really count Barrick as a silver company... Let me be abundantly clear. I primarily list Barrick to show how poorly it compares to all the rest, and to help show how much better the rest compare. This is a "comparative valuations" report, after all.
IPOAF.PK (INDUSTL PENOLES) http://www.penoles.com.mx 397.5 mil shares outstanding (2003 annual, unchanged since 2001) @ $4.75/share $1888 mil MC 419 proven and probable reserves of silver (from 2002 annual report on web site) $1888 mil MC / 419 oz. silver = $4.51/oz. You get "approx" 1.53 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Industrias Penoles is the world's top producer of refined silver. They actually derrive more revenue from silver than any other source. But they lost money in 2002. Produced 21.5 mil oz. silver 1 Q 2004 (Net earnings of $342.5 million 1 Q 2004)
The word late Feb. 2004 from ECU Mini, who reported to lemetropolecafe.com, is that Penoles hedged silver at low prices. As reported at lemetropolecafe.com, "We know the market is so tight even the world’s largest silver producer, Mexico’s Penolas, wasn’t thrilled about supplying 1 million ounces for a special project with ECU Silver, led by their extremely able CEO Michel Roy."
From 2003 annual statement, by Dec 31, 2003, Penoles hedged 1.5 million ounces of silver at $5.31/oz. That looks to be a bad bet, but easily coverable for Penoles. They bought an option to sell (put) 17 million ounces of silver at 4.94. Another bad bet. Totally wasted money, it appears to me. They also have an option to buy 8.5 million ounces (call) at $5.53. Not bad. Such hedging practices, win or lose, make it more difficult for investors to know and guess the current operational state of the company. Who knows whether Penoles will lock in more silver, and take away the upside potential profitability for shareholders, or even waste money on put options that will never be exercised.
Whether Penoles hedged an entire 2 years worth of production by Feb, 2004, I don't know, and remains to be seen. Penoles also engages in hedging dollars in the foreign exchane markets, further complicating matters.
77 million oz. silver refined by the metals division in 2003, and 1 mil oz. gold. They probably refine almost all the silver that comes out of Mexico. They produce about 48 mil oz. of silver from their mines 2003, and they have expansion plans.
I've heard this stock is tightly held, most is family owned.
Their oz. numbers are "proven & probable reserves", which is much more certain than most of the others which are mostly "inferred and indicated resources." They undoubtedly have "inferred and indicated resources" in addition to the "proven & probable reserves," I just could not find any info on that at the web site or in the annual report. There is no need for a Mexican company to comply with Canadian law, 43-101. When CDE recently complied with 43-101, they raised their total numbers by about 30-50%?
Given the report in March, 2004, that Penoles has hedged silver for two years, I expect silver bullion to continue to outperform IPOAF.PK stock at these prices. CDE (COEUR D'ALENE) http://www.coeur.com coeurir@coeur.com (208) 769-8155 or (800) 624-2824 214 mil shares outstanding (June 2004) not fully diluted @ $4.67/share $999 mil MC "Current cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments stand at approximately $252.7 million at January 31, 2004, giving effect to recent $180 million offering of 1.25% Senior Convertible Notes due 2024, net of offering costs." July 15th, 2004: Cour Presents Resources in Cdn 43-101 form: http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/040715/id_coeur_d_alene_mine_1.html Total of proven & probable reserves: 175 mil oz. silver, 1.4 mil oz. gold. Total silver equiv: 189 mil oz. Total of measured, indicated, and inferred resources: 76 mil oz. silver, 1.4 mil oz. gold. Total silver equiv: 90 mil oz. (43-101 reporting increased the number from 189 mil to 279 mil oz. silver). Before, Cour only reported reserves.) (Produced 14.2 mil oz. silver in latest fiscal year (early 2004) $999 mil MC / 279 mil oz = $3.58/oz. You get "approx" 1.93 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Wheaton recommends rejecting the CDE buy out offer: Wheaton Does not Intend to Pursue the Coeur D'alene Mines Proposal: Recommends Shareholders Vote IAMGold Combination Monday May 31 http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040531/315071_1.html Interestingly, as one reason, Wheaton says: CDE has a history of losses and negative operating cash flow.
For the full year 2003, the Company reported a net loss of $67.0 million, or $0.40 per share, compared to a net loss of $81.2 million, or $1.04 per share in 2002.
Why does CDE continue to mine and sell silver at a loss? Why has CDE borrowed $180 million to continue expanding this business plan? Why couldn't CDE have raised the money from issuing more shares? Why has CDE stock increased over seven times from about 30 million shares outstanding at the end of 1999 to 214 million shares outstanding by the first quarter 2004? How was CDE able to secure such favorable terms for a loan? "giving effect to recent $180 million offering of 1.25% Senior Convertible Notes due 2024, net of offering costs."" Who did CDE borrow money from? Who stants to gain if CDE continues to produce silver at a loss?
If CDE produced silver at a loss during the first quarter 2004, how much money will they make if silver hits $10/oz? Perhaps the break-even price for production is a constant $8.00/oz.? Regardless of their "cash cost" numbers. If so, and if CDE produces 15 million oz. of silver per year, then at $10/oz., CDE may make up to $30 million dollars, at the most, from their silver production, if none of their other costs like energy costs rise in price due to inflation. Mining uses a lot of energy, just so that you know, so I don't think it is likely that CDE will have profits even with higher silver prices in the $8-10 range due to inflation. Given that CDE has a market cap of up to $1000 million dollars, CDE just is not worth it at all, in my opinion. And neither would CDE stock be worth the price if they had a market cap of $300 million, in my opinion. I would rather own silver, as it moved in price from $6 to $10. And in the meantime, CDE may well move in price from $6.49/share down to $2.16/share (assuming no further dilution, and a reduction to a more reasonable $333 million market cap), and by then, with silver at $10, CDE may have a P/E ratio of 10, and a huge heavy debt load of $180 million dollars that may take up to 6 years of possible profits to pay off.
At $2.16/share, $10 silver, and a P/E of 10: $333 mil MC / 189 mil oz. = $1.76/oz. = You'd get about 5.68 oz. of silver for each silver oz. worth of stock.
There is one very important factor that CDE investors need to consider, especially if they are hoping that the stock will return to a historic price. CDE stock prices, in my opinion, are highly unlikely to return to historic prices. And why? Because of the recent massive dilution. At the end of 1999, there were 30 million shares out. Today, there are 214 million. You MUST take that information into account when looking at a long-term historical price chart. For example, the price in 1996 was $20/share, but there were less than 30 million shares? If so, then the market cap was $600 million ($20/share x 30 million shares). Today, the market cap typically exceeds the previous historic price of $20/share and $600 mil MC! $3.63/share x 214 mil shares = $777 mil MC, which shows that CDE is more expensive today at $3.63/share ($777 mil MC) than it was at $20/share ($600 mil MC).
I expect silver bullion to continue to outperform CDE stock at these prices.
SIL (APEX SILVER) http://www.apexsilver.com/ information@apexsilver.com (303) 839-5060 47.4 million shares outstanding (late May, 2004) (not fully diluted?) (derived from share price & market cap, late May, 2004) @ $21.20/share $1005 mil MC cash on hand: ~ $390 million March 2004 San Cristobal (Bolivia) (proven & probably reserves) 454 mil silver (forecast capital costs for construction to total approximately $435 million) (Produced zero silver in 2002) 7.8 billion pounds of zinc, and 2.9 billion pounds of lead $1005 mil MC / 454 mil oz = $2.21/oz. You get "approx" 3.12 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Apex's webpage on silver, "Commodity Fundamentals" says nothing about silver as money. Unbelievable and shameful! Unless you count this phrase, "As a precious metal, it has been a source of human adornment since the beginning of time." At least they recognize that silver is a precious metal, and at least they recognize it has been precious since the beginning of time. That's a start!
Bullishly, they note: "As a result of the silver inventory drawdown, by the end of 2002, the worldwide stockpile of refined silver has been reduced to levels sufficient to satisfy less than approximately six months of the existing demand."
A positive article was written about Apex in Business Week Online: A Bright Gleam On Apex -- Friday June 4
"Apex has rights in some 100 mineral-exploration holdings at 34 properties in countries such as Bolivia, El Salvador, Mexico, and Peru."
The article's analyst notes that in 2-3 years, when/if production comes online, "At silver's current price of $6 an ounce, Apex could earn $2 to $3 a share, he figures. If silver runs up to $10, earnings could hit $6, he says."
I note that this means that at a P/E of 10, if production comes online, Apex may more than tripple in 3 years to $60/share, while silver nearly doubles. That's not much leverage, given the increased risks of mining and owning a public company, and given that management of Apex seems to not recognize that silver is money, and debt is aweful.
March 16th, Apex raises $144 million in a convertable debenture deal to help finance the development of San Cristobal. They now have 350/435, or 80.4% of the capital costs needed for construction. Raising the last bit should now be very easy to do. If, while raising money, they held their cash in the form of silver bullion, they would probably not need to raise any more cash at this point, since silver has moved up over 50%.
See my silver stock report #40 for reasons why Apex will not likely use their cash to buy silver bullion while they wait for higher silver prices.
Apex silver primarily has institutional investors.
Apex has a lot of zinc. That's an added bonus that is not factored in to my method of valuation.Zinc prices have been heading up soon, so that's another bonus. Plenty of zinc is especially good if zinc is moving up in price. Zinc hit a recent high of $.51/lb., from a low of about $.35/lb. For zinc prices, see http://www.metalprices.com
Apex is not mining now, but are waiting for higher silver prices. George Soros, Billionaire, owns a bit of this one, his group of funds owns over 14% I read recently. There are several other zinc / silver plays on this list that investors might also consider: Canadian Zinc, Expatriate, or Metalline (I own Metalline, but not SIL.)
I do not have an idea on whether or not SIL will out perform silver bullion or not. It's hard to say, because of that huge zinc bonus.
FSR.TO FSLVF.PK (FIRST SILVER) http://www.firstsilver.com/ info@firstsilver.com (604) 602-9973 or (888) 377-6676 38.6 mil shares fully diluted (March 2004) @ $1.86/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $1.47 US $57 mil MC From the Company's main page: "As at December 31, 2001, First Silver's mineable reserves were 12 million ounces of silver and inferred resources totaled 30 million ounces of silver. The mine is developing a 1000 plus meter exploration drift to upgrade currently identified inferred resources to mineable ore reserves and to discover new reserves." (12 + 30 = 42 mil oz.) (The company appears to mine about 2 million ounces of silver per year, so perhaps by mid 2004, that would be 5 million ounces mined out from reserves and resources?) 42 - 5 = 37 mil oz. 12 + 30 = 42 mil oz. $57 mil MC / 37 mil oz. = $1.53/oz. You get "approx" 4.50 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: This is a high grade, producing miner. The high grades, about 300g/ton, are a plus. They are also actively exploring, another plus.
1st Q, 2004, FSR.TO earned $1.45 million Cdn?, or 4 cents/share, ending a string of losses for the 6 quarters prior. The Company recorded a profit of $1.93 million or $0.05 per share for first half of 2004, as compared with a loss of $0.28 million or $0.01 per share for same period in 2003.
"Total costs, net of gold credits, were $4.92 per ounce of silver in the three months ending June 30, 2004, as compared to $5.90 per ounce of silver in the year earlier period. Costs in 2003 were increased due to mill equipment breakdowns."
Produced 565,332 oz. silver for the quarter, and 1288 oz. gold.
First Silver is unhedged, and remain committed to remaining unhedged.
WTZ WTC.TO (WESTERN SILVER) (formerly Western Copper) http://www.westernsilvercorp.com info@westernsilvercorp.com Jay Oness Toll Free: 1-888-456-1112 43.3 mil shares fully diluted (July 2004) @ $9.78/share $423 mil MC (not actively mining) $14 million Cdn cash in the till (2 mil + 12 mil financing) no debt From the "SNC Lavalin Resource Calculation" March, 2003. Indicated 158.8 mil oz. silver Inferred 54.6 mil oz. silver Total 213.4 oz. silver. Total 1.94 oz. gold x 10 (at 10:1) = 19.4 silver equiv. The capital cost to get the mine going is estimated to be US $148 million Western Silver Completes Pre-Feasibility Study on Chile Colorado Zone at Penasquito New info: 267 mil oz. silver at a grade of just over 1 oz. per tonne. (an increase of 54 mil oz. over previous est.) Brechia zone will likely double the numbers: probably in Jan will have 500 mil oz. silver, 5 mil oz gold. Plus, they have two other zones that could each duplicate the success of each of the other two. So up to a Billion... oz. of silver as "exploration potential"! Feasibility: 2006-7 production timeline. $423 mil MC / 287 oz. = $1.47/oz. $423 mil MC / 1000 oz. = $.42/oz. --exploration potential You get "approx" 4.67 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock. Exploration Potential = 16
WTZ's silver page: "Why Silver?" While acknowleding the silver fundamentals as produced by the Silver Institue, and shrinking supplies, it says nothing about silver as money. WTZ acknowledges their role is to make sure their shareholders are "well positioned to take advantage of any shortage of supply or rise in the price of silver."
Western Silver was formerly Western Copper... Copper now at $1.35/lb!
Note the capital cost to get the mining started: $148 million dollars. WTZ also has the following other metal resources: 3.73 billion pounds of zinc x .50/lb = $1865 million 673 million pounds of copper x $1.30/lb = $874 million 1.3 billion pounds of lead x .40/lb = $520 million
MFN MFL.TO (MINEFINDERS) http://www.minefinders.com/ info@minefinders.com 39.1 mil shares fully diluted 1 Q 2004 @ $6.97/share $272 mil MC Cash on hand, Fully Diluted: C$34 million "over 3.5 mil ounces of gold resource and 160 mil ounces of silver" --Dec. '03 silver conversion = 3.5 x 10 = 35 mil + 160 mil oz. silver = 195 mil oz. silver At 70:1 ratio, 3.5 x 70 = 245 "silver equiv" of gold, and 160 mil of silver = 405. 245/405 = 61% of the mineral value is in the gold, 39% silver. At 10:1 ratio, 35/195 = 18% of the mineral value is in the gold, 82% silver. "In addition to the resources already drilled, Minefinders controls a strong portfolio of properties in Nevada, Arizona, and Mexico which have the potential to host new multi-million ounce discoveries over the next few years." $272 mil MC / 195 mil oz. = $1.40/oz. You get "approx" 4.94 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
At 70:1 silver to gold ratio, over half of MFN is in gold, so consider this a significant gold bonus. Minefinders reports increased Measured and Indicated Resource at Dolores August 9, 2004 (The increase was by 10%, and I don't see how the numbers relate to my previous numbers, which were higher, and may have included a total that was based on more properties?)
Additional Comments: Ross Beaty, CEO of PAAS called me, Sept 17th. For more on that, see my silver stock report #51. I caught up with Ross Beaty in person at the Silver Summit in Coeur d'Alene last week. I asked him if he would make a promise to remain debt free and unhedged, and I asked about the issue of holding silver in preference to paper money. He said that sometimes there is a "time and a place" for debt and hedging, and he expressed several reasons to not hold silver bullion, saying that it would not substantially increase the company's leverege to rising bullion prices, since they already hold 850 million ounces in the ground.
Personally, I beg to differ. If the company is only making 1% profits on mining silver, then their expected profit if they mined their entire 850 million ounce reserve is 8.5 million ounces (and that gives them the benefit of the doubt, as if they were smart enough to take such 1% profits in the form of silver bullion). In contrast, if they invested $100 million of cash into silver bullion at $6.60/oz., they could hold 15 million ounces. Therefore, it is clear that unless the silver price substantially improves, then the market cap of PAAS is clearly more than ten times overvalued!
Furthermore, bullion in hand creates liquidity and safety that every person and company needs. Silver in the hand prevents defaults by another. PAAS should know this! Handy and Harmon, a bullion refiner went bankrupt about 5 years ago. They were holding some silver bullion for PAAS, who then lost out as they could not recover the bullion after the default.
The dollar can also default on it's holders, in several ways. Banks can default, or the value of the dollar can be inflated away.
The most important reason for PAAS to hold their cash in the form of silver bullion in their own possession is that they need to show by example that silver is money, especially if they expect (or hope) others will use silver as money. Silver verses paper is a moral war.
PAAS should not be the customers of the paper money bankers. Could you imagine all of Microsoft's employees using another operating system by a competitor, such as Unix or Linux on all of their own computers? It is unthinkable. Yet somehow, PAAS produces real money, silver, but instead of using silver as money, the company prefers using paper cash as money, and refuses to take the lead and use silver bullion as money. I think such actions are inexcusable for a leading silver company such as PAAS, especially since their shares are so overvalued!
In fact, when a company has shares that are overvalued, they should start issuing stock! That's the best time, and the most appropriate time to issue stock! PAAS should issue stock, raise $100 million, and buy that much worth of silver bullion!
In a speech in Idaho, one reason that Ross Beaty gave with regard to not buying bullion, is that he said it would be a one-time price boost only of benefit to bullion holders, and that it would not help his company. This is utterly ridiculous. A boost to the silver price goes straight to improving the bottom line of a silver producer! Furthermore, the action of buying and holding silver bullion would be a wake up call to the entire investment community (not just the silver investment community) that now is the time to invest in silver bullion. The action of holding money in the form of silver bullion would certainly encorage others to do the same, which would strongly boost the silver price much more, as others would also buy silver bullion. As it is, other silver companies are already realizing the truth that buying silver bullion is a good idea. It's just a matter of when they buy.
And as it is, silver companies that are flush with cash, and have not bought bullion in the last year, have lost money as the dollar has devalued, and as the silver price has soared from under $5/oz... PAAS is hosting the 2004 Silver survey summary by GFMS for the Silver Institute
Pan American of Canada buys Morococha silver mine in Peru for US$35 million This $35 million acquisition is a great deal for PAAS, and a minor help for PAAS shareholders. According to the press release above, the silver mine produced 3.5 million ounces of silver a year, at a cash cost of $3/oz., which is great! At $6.50/oz, that's $3.5 x 3.5 mil oz. = $12.25 million per year profit after cash costs! That gives the acquisition a P/E ratio for the mine's acquisiton cost of under 3! What a deal!
Unfortunately, PAAS shareholders are paying way above that when they buy the stock today. After this acquisition, PAAS should have a "2004 silver production forecast to 13 million ounces from 10.1 million ounces and will reduce forecast cash costs to below $ 3.50/oz, bringing anticipated total costs to less than $4/oz for the year." Now, at $6.50/oz, that's $2.5 x 13 mil oz. = $32.5 million per year profit, after cash costs, excluding management expenses? That gives a P/E ratio for PAAS of about $1000 / $32 = 31. Therefore, considering the two P/E ratios, 31 compared to under 3, PAAS stock is over ten times overvalued compared to other silver mining opportunities that exist in the market, such as the property they just purchased.
PAAS had a very meager profit of $1.3 million, second quarter, 2004. I certainly would not get excited about paying nearly a billion dollars in market cap to get an annual earnings of $5 million. That's a P/E ratio of 200!
The reason silver investors are investing in companies such as PAAS is for the upside potential of rising silver prices, and the leverage that silver stocks offer.
PAAS plans to produce 15 million ounces of silver in 2005. Therefore, for every dollar the silver price rises, (while other costs remain flat), PAAS expects to earn an extra $15 million.
Doing the math on that, PAAS would need about an extra $100 million in annual profits to get to a "reasonable" P/E ratio of 10. This would require an additional rise in the price of silver by 100/15 or an extra $6.66 per ounce to rise to about $13.33. And by then, I would expect the price of PAAS to be fairly valued at a market cap of about $1000 million, with a P/E of ten. In the meantime, however, you could invest in silver bullion, and double your money. Therefore, I think silver bullion may outperform PAAS shares. On the other hand, if stock buyers bid PAAS up so that it has a P/E of about 20 by the time silver is $13.33/oz., (if that happens by next year, and is actually a reasonable expectation for a major) then PAAS and silver bullion may perform about the same.
GRS GAM.TO (GAMMON LAKE) http://www.gammonlake.com/ gammonl@sprint.ca (902) 468-0614 62 mil shares fully diluted (Feb 27th, 2004) @ $6.05/share $375 mil MC Total Ocampo NEW "1.85-million gold ounces and 76.7-million silver ounces in the measured and indicated categories and a further 2.55-million gold ounces and 127.8-million silver ounces in the inferred category." Inferred: 2.55 mil oz. gold, 127.8 mil oz. silver Silver equiv = 25.5 mil oz. + 128 mil oz. = 153.5 mil oz. Measured & Indicated: 1.85 mil oz. gold, 77 mil oz. silver silver equiv = 18.5 mil oz. + 77 mil oz. = 95.5 mil oz. Total silver equiv: 249 mil oz.
OLD DATA: Total Ocampo Inferred: 1,124,000 oz. gold, 50,438,000 oz. silver Silver equiv = 11.24 mil oz. + 50.44 mil oz. = 62 mil oz. Total Ocampo Measured & Indicated 2,207,800 oz. gold, 108,438,000 oz. silver Silver equiv = 22 mil oz. + 108 mil oz. = 130 mil oz. Total Ocampo Measured & Indicated plus Inferred = 182 mil oz.
Gammon owns 26.3% of Mexgold, MGR Since Mexgold owns 185 mil oz. of "target exploration potential", 26.3% of that is 48.6 mil oz. 249 + 49 = 298 mil oz. (231 oz. in report #49, last week) $375 mil MC / 298 mil oz.= $1.26/oz. You get "approx" 5.48 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock. **Note** most of Mexgold's oz. that are added in are an "exploration target" not yet "inferred resources".
"Overall, a total of 130,000-metres have been drilled in more than 800 holes since the inception of the Gammon Lake Ocampo Project" At prices of a 64:1 silver:gold ratio at $425/oz gold and $6.60/oz silver, the resources are worth $1048 million of silver, and $1411 million worth of gold. Cash cost is $85/oz. Life of mine is 7 years.
KBR.TO KBRRF.PK (KIMBER RESOURCES) http://www.kimberresources.com info@kimberresources.com (604) 669-2251 33.5 mil shares fully diluted (Sept 2004) http://www.kimberresources.com/sharestructure.html @ $2.06/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = US $1.63 $55 mil MC See press release dated Sept 28, 2004: Kimber Enlarges and Upgrades Carmen Deposit Measured, Indicated, & Inferred Silver Resources: 42 mil oz. Measured, Indicated, & Inferred Gold Resources: 552,500 oz. or 5.5 mil silver equiv. Total: 47.5 mil oz. silver equiv. 540,000 oz. gold x 10 = 5.4 mil "silver equiv." $55 mil MC / 47.5 mil oz.. = $1.15/oz. You get "approx" 6.01 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: A one property company. The Carmen gold-silver deposit on their Monterde property in the Sierra Madre belt of Chihuahua State, Mexico. Lower grades than originally thought. "At these grades, the value of recovered silver is expected to match, perhaps exceed, the value of gold." 75 g/t silver, 1 g/t gold. The value of these grades by tonne, is as follows: 75 g/t silver x .03125g/oz = 2.34 oz/tonne x $6.70/oz. = $15.67/tonne 1 g/t gold x .03125g/oz = .031 oz/tonne x $415 = $12.97/tonne Total = $28.64/tonne.
This project was once thought to have high grades. But today, the grades are lower than the grades for Mines Management, which is a lot cheaper (about $.30/oz. not $1.24/oz.) when considering cost per ounce in the ground for shareholders. But Kimber is a silver/gold property, and Mines Management is a silver/copper property, and that might help to account for the difference in price. Also, Kimber may be cheaper to start as an open pit project, whereas Mines Management is underground and thus may have higher start up costs proportionally. There certainly are a lot of factors to consider.
Clifton has a complex JV agreement with Dumont Nickel. In sum, here is what Keith Moeller VP, Clifton Mining Company wrote to me: "If Dumont produces a positive feasibility study on an individual property piece, then they gain a 50% interest in that piece alone, not in the rest of the property. If they spend more than 5 million dollars (US) on any one piece and they produce a positive feasibility study on that piece, then they will gain a 60% interest in that one piece of property, not in the rest. If they stop at any time or fail to produce a positive feasibility, then they will gain no interest in any of our property. Right now we have around 7 different pieces of the property that have "Stand Alone" mine potential. If Dumont stakes or purchases any property within five miles of the joint venture property, then we automatically receive a 50% interest in that property."
My problem is how to quantify that. First, there is the range of potential silver resources. Second, there is the range of potential ownership, which is highly variable, and not subject to the entire property, nor necessarily subject to spending by Dumont, but subject mostly to Dumont doing a positive feasibility study on each of many properties . At the extreme ranges, the values are: 40% to 100% of 105 = 42 - 105 million oz. 40% to 100% of 1000 = 400 - 1000 mil oz. "exploration potential" $47 mil MC / 42 mil oz. = $1.12/oz. $47 mil MC / 1000 mil oz. = $.047/oz. You get "approx" 6.16 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver. Exploration Potential: 146
Additional comments: Goldseek.com is hosting a "Meet the CEO" session with Dr. Friedman ofClifton. If readers would like to send him some questions (open until Aug. 23), see:http://www.goldreview.com/MeetCEO/ask.php
Note the "exploration potential" is very large, but it also assumes that their JV partner, Dumont, does not acquire any interest in the property at all.
Perhaps an interesting and novel way to determine percentage ownership of the projects would be to look at the relative market caps for both Clifton, and Dumont, and then assume that the market has it "about right", and then use thier relative values to determine a possible percentage ownership of each. And then, simply decide to own both, keeping your percentage ownership of each company, about the same. For example, if the MC of Clifton is $43 mil, and Dumont is about $10 mil, so own about 4.3 times as much Clifton as Dumont.
JV agreements were primarily entered into during a time when it was difficult to raise money through share offerings, as a way to advance the projects. Unfortunately, JV agreements also make it difficult for investors to value a company! Several companies at the NY Gold show in June were just completing buyout agreements (or working on doing so) with their JV partners.
For more info on what's going on with Clifton, see http://www.dumontnickel.com , JV partner. One man suggested buying both Clifton and Dumont to ease the difficulty in trying to figure out their JV agreement.
Clifton has 28% ownership of a biotech firm that makes a colloidal silver. The biotech firm has a patent on a "super" colloidal silver solution made with 10,000 volts that adds oxygen that gives it more powerful antibacterial properties, and is safer since it uses less silver, which would prevent "blue skin" argyria. Normal colloidal silver that you can make at home with 30 volts works to kill bacteria by disrupting the oxygen metabolism of the cell wall, killing bacteria with oxygen. The market for safe antibiotics is in the multi Billions of dollars.
You can now order the colloidal silver solution online at http://www.asapsolution.com To receive 10% off, use 50105 as the coupon number.
ABL signs a contract with GNC. (April) Clifton's biofirm's colloidal silver product will be on the shelves of this mass market health food and fitness stores, GNC. Congratulations to Clifton!
(I own shares of CFTN.PK)
SSRI SSO.V (SILVER STANDARD RESOURCES) http://www.silver-standard.com/ paull@silverstandard.com (604) 689-3856 or (888) 338-0046 51.8 mil shares fullly diluted (August 2004) --from the company web site. @ $16.38/share $848 mil MC debt free, cash: $Cdn 36 mil plus 2 million ounces of silver, plus securities. As of May 12: The company has budgeted $8.2 million in 2004 for feasibility and scoping studies and exploration of its 15 projects. With cash of $61 million, and marketable securities of approximately $10 million at March 31, the company decided to invest approximately 20% of its cash and securities in physical silver following the decline in silver prices in April and May. Silver Standard now owns over 1.95 million ounces of silver. This silver is held on an allocated and segregated basis and, consequently, is not available to be loaned. not mining or producing; 23 silver properties measured and indicated resources totaling 403.6 million ounces of silver plus inferred resources totaling 446.4 million ounces of silver = 850 mil oz. 2.2 mil oz. gold. Silver equiv = 22 mil oz. silver. (22 + 850 = 872 mil oz.) $848 mil MC / 872 mil oz. = $.97/oz. You get "approx" 7.09 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Congradulations to SSRI for converting some of their cash, 20%, to silver bullion! I wish it was more, but it is certainly a great start! SSRI decided to hold such a large percentage of their cash in the form of bullion, first, of all silver miners!
SSRI now has more silver resources than PAAS. I'd expect SSRI's market cap to soon exceed PAAS, especially given PAAS management's lack of understanding that silver is money, and can be used as money.
SSRI really is the "silver standard". SSRI has the largest market cap this far down the list, which makes it a more attractive target for people with larger amounts of money to invest. SSRI continues to add resources through drilling and acquisition. This company seems to really understand the silver story, and helped to educate me as an investor.
I attended a two hour SSRI presentation after the Gold show in SF in late November, 2003. For the most part, their properties are very well drilled, and they have a fairly solid idea on how much silver oz. in the ground they have. They started their plan to acquire silver properties and become a "silver company" in about 1993, which explains why they have such a large market cap, and so many good properties with so many ounces of silver.
Some investors like SSRI because of the diversification --SSRI owns many silver properties. You can get a similar kind of diversification by owning stock in many silver companies.
* TM.V TUMIF.OB (TUMI RESOURCES) (TUY Frankfurt Exchange) (I own shares) http://www.tumiresources.com nicolaas@attglobal.net Nick Nicolaas IR (604) 657 4058 24 mil shares fully diluted (Mar. 1, 2004) @ $1.19/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.94 US $23 mil MC 20 mil oz resource up to 50 million oz. silver potential but needs to be explored and drilled. 500,000 gold resource x 10 = 5 mil oz. silver equiv. Debt free, 2 projects in Mexico. Raised $2.7 million Nov. 14, 2003 $23 mil MC / 25 mil oz. = $.90/oz. ***I'm using this number*** $23 mil MC / 50 mil oz. = $.46/oz. (exploration potential) You get "approx" 7.66 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock. Exploration Potential: 15 (likely plus more after bonanza silver discovery late November, 2003.)
Tumi soared in late November, 2003, after the company announced a bonanza grade silver discovery after drilling. Final drilling is winding up, and a resource calculation from all the recent drilling is expected soon, sometime after final drilling results are announced.
Tumi is focused on becoming a "premiere junior silver explorer." It's good to see the focus is in the right metal. Doing active drilling to prove up their projects and increase "resources". Nick Nicolaas really understands the silver story, beliving silver has much greater appreciation potential than gold.
I own shares of TM.V.
* PLE.V (PLEXMAR RESOURCES INC) (I own shares) http://www.plexmar.com/ (now updated) info@plexmar.com Guy Bedard, President, Phone: (418) 658-6776 Fax: (418) 658-8605 --Signed two option agreements to acquire two exploration projects in Northern Peru, Cascajal and Marilia. 67 mil shares fully diluted (August 2004) --Guy gave me this number (Sept, 2004) @ $.155/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.12 US $8 mil MC $1.4 mil Cdn. money in the bank. --just acquired (OPTIONS ON) 2 silver mines in Peru. Total: 1.09 mil gold oz., 28.4 mil oz. silver Total silver equiv: 38.4 mil oz. --I can't find these numbers on the new website?! And I didn't realize the property acquisitions were options, and not 100% owned acquisitions?! Cascajal--Plexmar must pay to the owner $ 1 M US over a 5 year period with a $ 500,000 US payment in the 5th year. Cascajal--1,700,000 tonnes representing a total of 260,485 ounces of gold and 13,446,000 ounces of silver. (not 43-101) Recent financing was at $.25, with 7 mil warrants at $.40 Cdn Still acquiring properties. $8 mil MC (+ $5 mil in needed financings?) / 16 mil oz. = $.81/oz. $8 mil MC (+ $5 mil in needed financings?) / 38.4(old number from web site) mil oz. = $.34/oz. You get options on "approx" 8.49 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock. You get options on "approx" 20 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
I own shares of PLE.V
ORM.V OREXF.PK (OREMEX RESOURCES) http://www.oremex.com/s/Home.asp info@oremex.com 28.8 mil shares fully diluted (End of May, 2004) after, and including financing? @ $.99/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.78 US $22 mil MC Have $5 million cash in the bank as of Dec. 2003. holds the right to acquire a 100% interest in six mineral properties in Mexico. Oremex will focus on the exploration and development of the Tejamen Silver Property and the San Lucas Silver Property. They are hoping to explore for up to 100 mil oz. silver by drilling over the next year. --Experienced team of geologists and mannagement that have put other properties into production: Anthony R. Harvey, Chariman, has put 14 properties into production in his 40 year career. http://www.oremex.com/s/TejamenSilver.asp?ReportID=68653 for an inferred resource of 8.4 million metric tons at a grade of 89 g/t Silver (2.86 opt) and 0.2g/t Gold (0.006 opt). 2.86 x 8.4 = 24 mil oz. silver at Tejamen (one of six silver properties) $22 mil MC / 24 mil oz. = $.94/oz. $22 mil MC / 100 mil oz. = $.22/oz. --exploration potential You get "approx" 7.35 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock. Exploration Potential: 31
I expect this latest drilling result will end up adding to their resources, but I don't have any idea how much. Oremex Closes $2.6 Million Private Placement FinancingMay 28 "The Company issued a total of 2,890,023 units at $0.90 and 1,445,012 warrants exercisable at $1.10 for a period of 12 months from closing. In addition, 269,940 Agents' Warrants were issued entitling the holder to purchase one unit at $0.90 for a period of 12 months."
* CZN.TO CZICF.PK (CANADIAN ZINC) (I own shares) http://www.canadianzinc.com/ czn@canadianzinc.com 1-866-688-2001 78.5 mil shares fully diluted (August, 2004) @ $.77/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.61 US $48 mil MC $13 million cash, Cdn, no debt. not mining ($20 mil needed to finish & start the mine) ($100 mil worth of mining infrastructure in place!) ~70 mil oz. (IN ZONE 3 only!! of 12 zones! Their 18 year mine plan consists of zone 3 only, but there are 12 mineralized zones on the property.) $48 mil MC / 70 mil oz. = $.68/oz. You get "approx" 10.1 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
I repurchased CZN recently because I expected very positive drill results which I was hoping would significantly impact the stock price. These were less than I expected, and so I just sold half of the CZN I repurchased. But CZN still has plenty of existing resources.
CZN has good profit potential.
To get the mine up and running, they might be able to pay back debt financing within 2 years, but I would hope they would avoid debt, and raise the capital in additional financings.
I note several very, very positive things about this company.
1. This was the mining operation set up by the Hunt brothers, the major silver investors in the silver spike to $50/oz. in 1980 who were bankrupted by their own debts and margin calls as a result of the COMEX rule changes and silver short sale manipulation. The Hunts spent $50 million building infrastructure to build the mine. They were 90% complete when bankruptcy hit. The value of those buildings is now perhaps over $100 million, and the mine only needs about $20 million (CAN) ($15 mil US) to get the mine up and running. That's much cheaper than other cost estimates of other operations. 2. High Grade ores: 12% zinc/ton; = 240 lbs. zinc/ton x 50 cents/lb. = $120/ton for the zinc. 10.1% lead/ton = 202 lbs. lead/ton x 40 cents/lb. = $80/ton for the lead. 6 oz. silver/ton x $6.95/oz. = $42/ton for the silver. 0.4% copper/ton = 8 lbs. copper/ton x 1.30 cents/lb. = $10/ton for the copper. Total: $249/ton! Prices accurate as of Mid Feb., 2004 3. My method of valuation: I'm really counting only the silver, not the base metals in my "oz in the ground" valuation. So consider a significant "zinc bonus", and "lead bonus". 4. Zinc and base metals prices headed up? About 49 cents/lb. for zinc! Check http://www.metalprices.com/ for updates.
(I own shares of CZN.TO)
* IMR.V IMXPF.OB (IMA EXPLORATION) (I own shares.) http://www.imaexploration.com/s/Home.asp info@imaexploration.com 49,059,825 mil shares fully diluted (May 27, 2004) @ $3.50/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $2.76 U.S $135 mil MC Exploring in Argentina. $4.5 million cash Snowden Reports Over 200 Million Ounces of Contained Silver at IMA's Galena Hill -- May 25th Indicated + Inferred Resource = 243 mil oz. "This resource includes only the Galena Hill deposit and portions of the adjacent Connector zone, and does not include known and interpreted mineralization at Navidad Hill, Barite Hill, Calcite Hill, or along the Esperanza Trend." My comments: This resource might be perhaps 1/4 or 1/5th of the overall potential resources, based on estimating by looking at size of the land area being explored, compared to the size of the land area covered by the resource calculation. The full exploration potential might be 4 times as big. $135 mil MC / 243 mil oz. = $.56/oz You get "approx" 12.37 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock. (Exploration potential might be (times 4) or 49.
IMA Exploration Inc.: Drill Hole #88 Yields a Blind Silver Discovery 470 Metres Northwest of Navidad Hill "The hole intersected 72.3m averaging 202 g/t silver and 3.45% lead from 70.3 to 142.6m depth..." "None of the 15 new holes reported on in this release are within the Galena Hill deposit where an Indicated Resource of 207 million ounces of silver (63.6 million tonnes grading 101 g/t silver and 1.76% lead) has been identified" Wednesday September 8
IMA has several joint venture partners in the area in Argentina near Navidad. See Tinka, Cloudbreak, Consolidated Pacific Bay. Other companies are in the near area such as Pategonia Gold, Pacific Rim, and Silver Standard. And, of course Aqualine who, based on their lawsuit, seems as if they think they own the entire area for 50 miles around all their mining claims. That's a total of 7 other companies in the area. And of course, Cardero also has significant exploration properties in Argentina.
IMA had many other silver properties that they just spun off into a new company, Golden Arrow. For every 10 shares of IMA existing shareholders got 1 share of Golden Arrow. (See below)
(I own shares of IMR.V)
SHSH.PK (SHOSHONE SILVER) http://www.shoshone-mining.com Carol Stephan, director, 208-666-4070 18 million outstanding shares @ $.40 US $7.2 mil MC Lakeview Mine and Mill: 24,190 tons of mineralized material delineated at Lakeview, grading an average of 11.8 oz/t silver. = 285,000 oz. silver. But is a narrow (high grade) vein mine, like Cour d'Alene and Hecla, with few reserves. Conjecture (in Lakeview district): 336,000 tons at a grade of 11 ounces per ton of silver = 3.7 mil oz. silver. "Terms of the 25-year lease [of the conjecture] include payment of a $3000 per year advance royalty, issuance of one million shares of Shoshone common stock to Chester, and a sliding scale net smelter return based on the spot price of silver." At .$60/share, that's $.6 mil MC more for the lease. blende project: 21.4 million tons grading 1.63 ounces per ton (oz/t) silver. (low grade) 34.8 mil oz. silver (not 43101 compliant, plus 5.8% lead-zinc ) Shoshone must issue 1 million shares, and spend $5 million on exploration by December 31, 2008 to complete its 60 percent earn-in on the blende project. How to count that? As an investor, I hate evaluating these kinds of complex deals. 60% of 34.8 mil oz. silver is 20.9 mil oz. that will cost an additional $5 million, plus a million shares. At $.60/share, that's $5.6 million for 20.9 mil oz. resource. That's $5.6 million / 20.9 mil oz. = $.27/oz. acquisition cost to Shoshone for blende, which they don't own yet, just an option. I don't like options, which is why I buy silver bullion, and mining companies in the first place, as they are "unexpiring call options" if they own their properties. Total: 4 mil oz. silver, plus an option on 20.9 mil oz. silver at blende. $7.2 mil MC (plus $6.2 mil they need to raise to maintain leases) / 4 mil oz, plus 20.9 mil oz. (24.9 mil oz.) = $.54/oz. You get options and leases that, if they raise money at the current share price, may give "approx" 12.8 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
FAN.TO FRLLF.PK (FARALLON RESOURCES) http://www.farallonresources.com/fan/Home.asp info@hdgold.com (604) 684-6365 Erick Bertsch 78.3 mil shares fully diluted (Aug, 2004) @ $.83/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.65 US $51 mil MC Exploration and development in Mexico. Managed by Hunter-Dickinson http://www.hdgold.com On 4 sulphide deposits out of 16, 29 mil tonnes of ore grading 89 grams silver/t and 1.57 g gold/t. Conversion: 89 grams x .03215 troy oz./gram = 2.86 oz./t silver RE: those 29 mil tons, they "anticipate increasing resources to 50 mil tonne range..." 2.86 oz./t silver x 29 mil tons = 83 mil oz. silver 1.5 mil oz. gold x 10 = 15 mil oz "silver equiv". Total: 98 mil oz. silver equiv. (Exploration potential = x 1.7 = 167) (Minus: The recoveries on low grade ores such as this are typically not 100%, but may be more like 50-85%, but it also depends on which metal in the polymetalic deposit that they most focus on extracting, and also depends on advances in technology.) $51 mil MC /98mil oz. silver equiv. = $.52/oz. $51 mil MC / 167 mil oz. silver equiv. = $.30/oz. --exploration potential You get "approx" 13.2 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock. Exploration potential = 23
These drill results contain much higher levels of zinc than previous drilling, 4-8% compared to 2%.
The last drilling was done in 1999... because of low zinc prices: 46% of the price of the metals was in the zinc before prices crashed... The largest componant in late 2003 was gold, which was surprising to Eric, the IR guy I spoke with. About 1/3 is in silver now.
At today's low metals prices: 2% x 2000 lb = 40 lbs zinc x $.42/lb = $16.8 for the zinc (.37 to .50 lb zinc.) 3.14 oz. x $5.15 = $16 for the silver. .055421 oz. x $385/oz. = $21 for the gold (Assuming 100% metals recovery--which is not likely to be the case. It may range from 60% to a higher percentage, depending on extraction methods used and the particular mineral targeted, which constantly change with technology advancements, and price changes in the metals. By the time a mine like this gets running, perhaps in 5 years or so, things may change to allow even greater metal recovery.)
The stock once had a market cap of $450 million, Canadian.
Speaking with FAN.TO guys, they think reserves of ore could be 50 mil tonnes OR MORE, but that they really don't know, and want to issue conservative estimates.
SRLM.PK (STERLING MINING) http://www.sterlingmining.com/ RDemotte@aol.com Ray DeMotte 208 666 4070 12.2 mil shares outstanding (May 31, 2004) 16.6 mil shares fully diluted (May 2004) --(To get the latest number, I have to call Ray DeMotte. Note the date.) @ $6.85/share $114 mil MC ~185 mil oz. reserves + resource, Sunshine alone Quote from: http://www.sterlingmining.com/jun112003.html "The prior operator last estimated the mine reserves at 26.75 million ounces of silver, 10.36 million pounds of copper and 7.05 million pounds of lead (or approximately 28.85 million ounces of silver-equivalent), as well as an additional resource of 159.66 million ounces of silver. " Other properties: Baroness 15 mil -- tailing project, no further exploration potential, (construction finished, testing beginning) Tesorito 17 mil -- + exploration potential San Acacio 14 mil -- + exploration potential Total: 231 mil oz. silver $114 mil MC / 231 mil oz. = $.49/oz. $114 mil MC / 550 mil oz. = $.21/oz. (exploration potential) You get "approx" 14.0 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock. (Exploration potential is 33.)
I wrote an article on SRLM in late Dec. 2003. See: Sterling Mining (But I no longer own shares.)
Ray DeMotte really, really understands the silver story, and has been aggressively acquiring silver properties. Sterling continues to consolidate its land position around the Sunshine mine.
Sterling Mining acquired the Sunshine mine. Sunshine had "more than 360 million ounces of production over the past century" and was one of the big three: Hecla, Couer, & Sunshine. Sunshine went bankrupt. Sterling got the property a few months ago cheap, because they were quick & willing to pay cash. Other buyers wanted to do a full study before making an offer. The best factors, I feel, are as follows: 1. The Sunshine mine is an existing mine that was mining at a profit. The company went bankrupt, not the mine. So there will be no great capital costs for start up, only minimal costs. 2. The Sunshine sits on 1/2 sq. mile, and was never fully explored. Sterling Mining owns 10 square miles of property surrounding the Sunshine, right in the heart of silver country, the location of CDE and HL, the other two big companies at the top of this list. 3. The management of Sunshine understands the silver story. They are on a mission to acquire distressed silver properties at today's cheap prices. See also: December 14, 2003: "In light of the continued low silver price, Sterling has this year begun holding back into inventory a portion of this year's silver coins minted."
* SVL.V STVZF.PK (SILVERCREST MINES) (I own shares) http://www.silvercrestmines.com/ info@silvercrestmines.com (604) 691-1730 25.9 mil shares fully diluted March, 2004 @ $1.25/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.99 US $26 mil MC $3 mil cash in the till. Honduras - Arena Blanca: high grade exploration project, 7,600 g/t silver, no samples, adit inaccessable. Honduras - Opoteca Deposit: Indicated and Inferred silver: 12.8 mil oz. silver Honduras - La Pochota: a vein, 1-4 meters in width, of between 300 to 500 g/t silver, needs drilling Honduras - El OCote Deposit: Indicated and Inferred silver: 19.8 mil oz. silver Ultimate exploration potential may be another 40 to 100 mil oz? See the Rosita Extension, grades 100 to 200g/t silver, news release dated Sept., 2003, "SilverCrest Makes Significant Discovery at El Ocote Silver Project" (in Honduras) El Salvador - El Zapote Project: Indicated and Inferred silver: 14.3 mil oz. silver Guatemala - Concepcion Concession (pending): includes several past producing silver mines. documented results of greater than 13,714 g/t silver -- a historical resource of 1.9 million tonnes grading 86 g/t (2.5 opt) silver (4.75 mil oz., non- 43-101 compliant) Mexico - Silver Angel Project-- a 100% interest in 10,300 hectares located in the northern Sierra Madre Range... with structural features that host seven past producing, high grade silver-gold mines. --currently exploring this project. Totals: 12.8 + 19.8 + 14.3 + 4.75 = 51.65 mil oz. +85 million pounds of zinc, indicated and inferred. $26 mil MC / 52 mil oz. silver = $.49/oz. You get "approx" 14 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
results of the 30 hole drill program nearing completion at the El Zapote Project in El Salvador,
revised resource estimates for the Cerro Colorado III and adjacent San Casimiro deposits at El Zapote,
El Zapote Feasibility Study update,
initial drill results for the three hole drilling program at the Tajado Prospect located at El Zapote,
results of the Phase 1 exploration program on the Silver Angel Prospect in Sonora, Mexico,
results of the initial 9 holes currently being drilled at the Silver Angel, and
progress on the potential acquisition of additional silver properties.
The two projects of current focus are in Mexico and El Salvador, (nothing in Honduras at the moment). The El Salvador project is moving "full speed ahead" with a feasibility study expected by November. Depending on the study, hoping for produciton perhaps by Jan or July, 2006.
Regarding the properties in Honduras: "The company believes that the El Ocote silver deposit can be developed to the advantage and benefit of the people of Honduras without any serious detriment to the environment. It continues to be prepared to work toward a social contract that will address the needs of all the stakeholders but must be confident that the government of Honduras is prepared to respect the rule of law and support foreign investment in the development of the natural resources of Honduras before committing substantial amounts of its shareholders capital to that end."
I own shares of SVL.V
GGC.V GGCRF.PK (GENCO RESOURCES) http://www.gencoresources.com/ info@gencoresources.com IR: Rob Blankstein: 604-682-2205, or 20+ mil shares fully diluted (April, 2004) @ $1.00/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.79 $16 mil MC --Producer in Mexico. http://www.gencoresources.com/reserves.html Inferred resources: 484g/t silver x .03215 = (15.5 oz/t) x 2.3 mil t = 35.8 mil oz. silver 2.00g/t gold x .03215 = 148,000 oz. gold x 10 = 1.5 mil oz. "silver equiv" 385 x .03215 = ... x 95k = 1.2 mil oz silver 40+ mil oz. silver equiv. resources 2002 production, 500,000 oz. silver, 9000 oz. gold $16 mil MC / 40 mil oz. silver = $.39/oz. You get "approx" 17.5 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional Comments: As of April, 2004, Genco is producing 35,000 oz/month of silver, earning $100,000 Cdn/month, and expects to earn $1,000,000 Cdn/month by year's end by doubling both the tonnage and the grade. Genco is also aggressivly planning on making property acquisitions.
CHD.V CHDSF.PK (CHARIOT RESOURCES) http://www.chariotresources.com/ ullir@chariotresources.com 45 mil shares fully diluted October 2003 @ $.35/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.28 US $12 mil MC Cello Ccasa (1 project of 4) Resource Estimate - August 2002 31.4 mil oz. silver, 134,000 oz. gold. (x 10 = 1.3) 32.7 mil oz. (Stilll much exploration work to do.) $12 mil MC / 32.7 mil oz. = $.38/oz. You get "approx" 18.1 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
* EXR.V EXPTF.PK (EXPATRIATE RECS) (I own shares) http://www.expatriateresources.com/ info@expatriateresources.com 1-877-682-5474 Dr. Harlan D. Meade, President and CEO 122.9 mil shares fully diluted (July 23, 2004) (listed on the front page of the web site!) @ $.395/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.31 $38 mil MC $1.2 mil CAN capital in the tilll no debt. Mostly a base metals company: Zinc. Also has some silver & gold. 6 properties. Most of the value is concentrated in the 100% owned Wolverine Project. Total mineralization across 6 properties: 97.2 mil oz. silver, 565,000 oz. gold, = 103 mil oz. "silver equiv." About 3.8 billion pounds zinc, also some copper and lead. $38 mil MC / 103 mil oz. silver = $.37 You get "approx" 18.4 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
On Sept. 7th, Expatriate announced their intentions to complete an $8 million Cdn financing.
Significant zinc bonus, about 3 times the silver value. Smelter credits are estimated at about 60% zinc, 25% silver, 10% gold and copper, and the rest, other minerals, but that assumes old low prices for silver, about $5-6?/oz. My method of valuation puts a value on the silver only, not the rest, so this is a significantly better value than my number shows.
Call Dr. Harlan D. Meade, President and CEO 1-877-682-5474, and ask him to send you an information packet on EXR.V. It contains a good report on why he is bullish on both silver and zinc.
(I own shares of EXR.V)
HDA.V (HUSIF.PK) (HULDRA SILVER) no web site Phone: Magnus 1 (604) 261-6040 6.924 mil shares fully diluted (end '03?) @ $.54/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = US $.43 $2.9 mil MC no debt HDA's proven and probable reserves stand at 161,000 tons of ore grading an average 25.6 ounces per ton silver, and 10 percent combined lead/zinc -- 4.12 mil oz silver, not including the zinc & lead. According to Magnus, the indicated and inferred reserves total about 180,000 tons at about the same grading -- in other words, a further 4 million ounces of silver. ~8 mil oz. silver $2.9 mil MC / 8 mil oz. silver = $.37/oz. You get "approx" 18.8 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: There is a significant lead/zinc bonus. "The property could be put into production at a capital cost of Cdn $3.5 million -- with payback of capital (when equity financed) within two years."
RDV.TO RDFVF.PK (REDCORP VENTURE) http://www.redcorp-ventures.com/ http://www.redfern.bc.ca/index.html info@redcorp-ventures.com 52.7 mil shares fully diluted (March 2004) @ $.29/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.23 $12 mil MC http://www.redfern.bc.ca/projects/tulsequah/exploration_resources.html#results 9 mil tonnes indicated and inferred at 107.5 g/t x .03215 = 31 mil ounces silver (3.4 oz/ton low grade silver, with other minerals) (also have significant gold ($30/ton at $400/oz.) and zinc $60/ton at $.46/lb.) 728,000 oz of Gold x 10 = 7.3 mil "silver equiv" = 38.3 mil oz. silver equiv. $12 mil MC / 38.3 mil oz = $.32/oz. You get "approx" 21.9 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
RDV has a "gold bonus". At $409/ gold, and $6.50/oz. silver, it's about $300 million worth of gold, and $200 million worth of silver, or about 60% of the value is in the gold. Since my method really undercounts the gold, this means there is a significant "gold bonus" here.
* MGN (MINES MGMT) (I own shares) http://www.minesmanagement.com/ info@minesmanagement.com (509) 838 6050 Doug Dobbs 12.4 mil shares fully diluted (April 2004) @ $6.50/share $81 mil MC 261 mil oz. silver resources. Previous drilling spent over $100 million drilling the property. $81 mil MC / 261 mil = $.31/oz. You get "approx" 22.3 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
The revised plan for developing the Montanore Mine envisions an operation processing 12,500 tons of ore per day, yielding approximately 8 million ounces of silver and 60 million pounds of copper per year at a cash cost of under $2.90 per ounce. (At a capital cost of approximately $236 million.)
"The cash operating costs of the project remain attractive at approximately $12.14 per ton, taking into account inflation offset by increases in productivity from improved mining methodology and technology."
About 2-3 oz silver/ton, 0.75% copper.
As copper moves up 5 cents/lb., it adds $100 million to the value of the deposit. As silver moves up $.50/oz., it adds $130 million to the value of the deposit.
Mines Management (MGN) owned 10% of the rights to their property in Montana. The other 90% owner, Noranda, simply gave up on the property and walked away from their mining claim due to "perpetually" low silver prices and political concerns. That explains the rocketing share price. So, the MGN group got 90% of the rest of the property FOR FREE!--the value of which, and the nature of this transaction has just barely begun to be understood by the market, given the low relative price.
Their property also has about 61% of the value (at current prices) in copper (copper recently at $1.43/lb.), 2 Billion pounds of copper, and 261 mil oz. of silver. Doing the math: 261 mil oz. silver x $6.70/oz. = $1.748 Billion. 2 Billion lbs copper x $1.39/lb.. = $2.8 Billion. Total value of mineralization before costs to extract, $4.5 billion. It was recently a high of: $4.8 Billion. This number increased from around $3 Billion just a few months ago! These numbers do not suggest a potential market cap value of the company. The costs to extract that mineralization will be substantial, along the way. However, if they are cost effective at today's prices, and if metals prices double, then that is substantial profit, and creates the leverage investors seek.
They do not have an active working mine--which is a minus. They will need to raise capital to get a mine going: $236 million current estimate.
Regarding environmental concerns: Noranda had a fully approved Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) that led to successful project permitting, so environmental concerns were not a factor in Noranda's departure of the project in 2002.
* ABI.V ABMBF.PK (Abcourt Mines) (I own shares) http://www.abcourt.com/ jftremblay@abcourt.com Jeff Tremblay (IR) (418) 575-1169 cell phone 28.3 mil shares fully diluted (June 21, 2004) @ $.23 share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.18 $5 mil MC no debt., North of Montreal., ~11 mil shares family owned. proven reserves... not ready to be opened, re-opened perhaps in mid 2005? --Abcourt-Barvue: Past producer, existing infrastructure: Put into production a second time, 1985-1990 for $20 million. --Historic Resource for: 18.1M oz silver, 120,000 oz.. gold, 303,000 tons zinc, 2,308 tons copper. --Estimated cost to reopen the silver mine was (with the old plan) $35 mil Cdn: Estimated: 27.55% IRR, 98% return on equity, payback period of 2 years. -The current plan is to do an 80,000 ton bulk sample at an approximate cost of $5 mil Cdn, hopefully by early 2005. $273 million worth of zinc at .45/lb, $108 million worth of silver at $6/oz, $45.6 mil worth of gold at $380 $5 mil MC / 19 mil oz. = $.27/oz. You get "approx" 25.5 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Jeff Tremblay and Renaud Hinse took a trip to Vancouver and San Franciso, and came out to Grass Valley, California my hometown, to meet with me late August. They have been in business as early as 1977. The mine last operated from 1985 to 1990. In 1980, the stock price hit a high of $4.95/share. In 1985, they raised and spent $20 million Cdn. to start production, and in 1990 production was put on hold due to low silver and zinc prices.
Imagine trying to run a business for 14 years with no revenue! Yet, during that time, they have managed to keep the company debt free, and dilution to a minimum! Yearly costs to keep the claims and equipment of this family-run mine are $100,000, so that has been their secret of survival.
--looking to raise $5 mil to reopen the gold mine. looking to raise $5 mil to reopen the silver/zinc mine.
(I own shares of ABI.V)
* ASM.V ASGMF.PK (AVINO SILV GOLD) (I own shares.) http://www.avino.com/ shares@avino.com 604 682-3701 -- David Wolfin 10.5 mil shares outstanding. / 12.5 mil shares fully diluted (June 2004) 16.5 mil shares fully diluted (including, and after the purchase of remaining 51% of the Avino mine) @ $1.53/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $1.21 US $19.9 mil MC from: http://www.avino.com/other/goldstock100197.html --in 1997 "How Much Silver Does Avino Have?" "Operations at Avino's silver mine in Mexico are both open-pit and underground. I examined the reserves and interpolated the tonnage into silver ounces as follows: 28-million ounces proven; 50-million ounces probable and 27 million ounces possible." (Not all are 43101 compliant reserves & resources.--that is an old, third party report.) The Avino Mine operated from 1986 to 2001, producing about 497 tons of silver, 3 tons of gold, and 11,000 tons of copper. That's about 1.6 million ounces of silver, or about a million ounces of silver per year. Avino produced 166 ounces of silver for every one ounce of gold. At a 60:1 value ration, that means that the value of silver to gold is 2.76 times as much value (today and historical) is in silver than gold. They actually have over five silver properties/projects. I only have numbers for one, the primary Avino mine = 28 + 50 + 27 = 105 Avino owned 49% of that, or 51.5 mil oz., prior to the purchase agreement for the remainder for an additional 4 million shares. $19.9 mil MC / 105 mil oz. = $.19/oz. You get "approx" 36.3 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
(I own shares of ASM.V)
* CSG.TO CSGLF.PK (Capstone Gold) (I own shares) http://www.capstonegold.com Chris Tomanik IR (604)-684-8894 ctomanik@capstonegold.com 37 mil fully diluted (March 2004)--from the web site (our company/corporate info) (and 37 mil fully diluted from the July 30th / May 31 financial report) 42.7 mil shares fully diluted (August 2004) @ $.82/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.65 $28 mil MC $~6 mil Cdn, cash on hand. They did a $9.1 million PP at $.75/share Cdn. in Jan 2004. 6 mil warrants at $1.00-$1.25 Cdn. Projects all in Mexico, past producers. http://www.capstonegold.com/images/capstone_proj_sum.jpg Cozamin is the largest property (gold/copper), for which drill results will soon be announced. Six properties (Still need about $12 mil to fully acquire 90-100% over next 5 years, minus 3% NSR "net smelter royalty") Cozamin: indicated: 2.8 mil T x 85g/t Ag (7.4 mil oz. silver), .5g/t Au (44,000 oz. gold) + inferred: 3.1 mil T x 103 g/t silver (10 mil oz. silver), .5g/t Au (48,000 oz. gold) High Grades range from about 200-300g/t silver. (6.5 - 9.5 oz. tonne) --across 5 properties Totals: (excluding Cozimin): 115 mil oz. silver, 2.3 mil oz. gold. (138 mil oz. silver equiv) Grand total: (including Cozimin): 156 mil silver equiv. ounces Exploration Potential: up to 500 mil oz. silver at Claudia (580 mil total?) $28 mil MC (+ $6 or more mil to finance, to fully acquire) / 156 mil oz. = $.22/oz. $28 mil MC (+ $6 or more mil to finance, to fully acquire) / 580 mil oz. = $.058/oz. You get options and leases that, if they raise money at the current share price, may give "approx" 32.0 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock. Exploration Potential: 118
In case you didn't notice, the list of companies, above, that have significant measurable resources, is in reverse. The worst companies, that are the most expensive with the least resources, are listed first, and the better companies, with more resources at least cost, are listed last, just above here. The list is done this way on purpose for several reasons, as follows. First, the best companies are in the middle of the report (burried). Second, it allows the reader to see the many other options available before seeing these ones. Third, this means that this list is less likely to have a "pump and dump" type effect. So, you have to "scroll up" to see the list from this point.
Explorers deserve their own category, since they cannot be valued by the method of looking at reserves and resources of ounces of silver in the ground. We do not know how many oz. they might have. They are exploring for that. A few explorers may also be producers, and they are both listed here, if they do not have significantly large well-defined resources.
This list, although at the bottom, in no way indicates that these companies are more highly valued, or less valued, than companies listed above. There may be less certainty in the companies listed below, and more certainty in the companies above.
It is also difficult to categorize a company as an explorer, since all silver companies always hold more silver properties that need to be explored. IE, everyone is an explorer!
The list above is not a list of producers, the list above is a list of companies with significantly measurable resources in the ground. Those below, generally do not. Or, if they do have resource numbers, the numbers are very small compared to their much larger exploration potential, and thus, they are listed here.
(The order in this list is by largest market cap first, not by "comparative value" of the market cap divided by the resources, as above.)
HL (HECLA MINING CO) http://hecla-mining.com/ hmc-info@hecla-mining.com (208) 769-4100 118 mil shares outstanding (August, 2004) @ $7.37/share $870 million Market Cap (MC) near zero debt, cash: $123 mil (Feb., 2004) (est. 2004 production 9 mil oz. silver and 215,000 oz. gold ) La Camorra gold mine, 547,885 oz gold.) (x 10 = 5.5 mil oz silver equiv. San Sebastian silver mine, (proven & probable reserves) 3.8 mil (down from 8) Greens Creek silver mine (proven & probable reserves) 31 mil (HL owns 30% of this, but the 31 mil oz. number reflects that percentage ownership.) the Lucky Friday mine (proven & probable reserves) 10 mil. (down from 14) 5.5 + 3.8 + 31 + 10 = 48.9 Total silver equiv. reserves = 48.9 mil oz. $870 mil MC / 48.9 mil oz. = $17.78/oz.
Additional comments: Given that CDE made a share offer in week #36 for Wheaton River, I expect that Hecla will try a similar tactic very soon, and offer shares to acquire another silver company. (still waiting...)
Hecla is the most expensive company on the list in terms of cost per oz. of silver in the ground. But HL has more oz. than listed in the "proven & probable" category used in this calculation. Vein mining makes reserve calculations difficult, and HL has rarely had more than about a 3-4 year picture of reserves ahead of them in 100 years of production.
So, the other way to value a company based on the fundamentals is on the price to earnings ratio, or P/E ratio. Hecla has a net income of $6.2 million for the first quarter of 2004, which silver prices were high, and $8.9 million net income for the first half of 2004. Annualized, that's $24.8 million to 18 million. The higher number gives a P/E ratio of $870 mil MC / $24.8 mil = 35, which indicates to me that HL is way too expensive of a stock to buy. Other silver properties and companies in the silver world have expected P/E ratios of as low as 3.
At the NY Gold show in June, I spoke with Vicki Veltkamp, Hecla's vice president of investor and public affairs, and I listened to her 15 minute presentation on Hecla at the show. I felt that her presentation honored my work, since she focused on the fact that Hecla does not have substantial reportable reserves, due to the nature of vein mining. She also emphasized that they already had detailed plans for spending all of their available cash, of $123 million, which implied that they had nothing left over to buy silver bullion. Point: HL is not going to buy silver bullion with their cash anytime soon.
One of Vicki's arguments was that HL only produces 9 million ounces of silver, and that in a market that produces 500 million ounces of silver a year, that withholding production would not significantly move up the price. I think she's looking at the wrong numbers. HL's market cap has recently ranged from $600 million to up to $1,000 million. The remaining silver at the COMEX, available for delivery in the registered category is only about 50 million ounces, not the 500 million ounes annually produced. The available silver is valued, at $6/oz., at $300 million. HL could issue 1/4 to 1/3 more stock than they already have outstanding, and use the proceeds to buy perhaps $300 million worth of silver bullion, and likely break the price to sky high levels, which would boost profits enormously.
If HL mines 9 million ounces of silver a year, at a cost of about $5-6/oz. (because their profits are slim), then if the silver price rises to about $33/oz, and other costs remain the same, HL could be making $250 million dollars per year. It seems the largest silver companies have absolutely no vision about how they can affect the markets, and take a leadership role in the world of silver.
I urged Vicki that HL should use their stock or cash, if not for buying silver bullion, then to acquire other silver companies, since I believe their stock is overvalued. Vicki said HL does look at many acquisition opportunites, and would be interested in looking at others.
I expect silver bullion to continue to outperform HL stock at these prices. MGR.V MGRSF.PK (MEXGOLD RSCS) http://www.mexgold.com/ 52.5 mil shares fully diluted (spring 2004) @ $2.71/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $2.14 US $112 mil MC inferred resource: 45 mil oz. silver + 1 mil oz gold. 1 mil oz. gold = + 10 mil oz. silver equiv "The estimate does not address significant additional mineralized structures known to be present on the property, or the potential for large strike extensions of known high-grade zones." February Financing was for the El Cubo Gold-Silver Mine is located in the Guanajuato gold-silver district in the Republic of Mexico. Historical reports cite district production at 1.2 billion ounces of silver and over 4 million ounces of gold. With capital spending and upgrades, and expect to produce up to 100,000 oz. gold equiv/year at $190/oz. At $400/oz, that may mean $210/oz. net profit, or $21 million positive cash flow/year, and yet, the purchase price was $21.5 million. Seems like they bought a mine, at a price, with a profit potential, of a P/E ratio of 1. Target to expand the El Cubo project resource to over 2 million ounces of gold equivalent. Given that historic production was 300 oz. of silver for each 1 oz. of gold, I think it's odd that they speak in terms of "gold equivalent". Why not emphasize the silver??? Converting their target of gold back to silver, at their ratio of 65:1, gives 130 mil oz. "silver equivalent". 55 + 130 = 185 "exploration potential" $99 mil MC / 185 mil oz. = $.54/oz. That's an "exploration potential target"
Additional comments: Gammon Lake is a large shareholder, 26.3%.
Mexgold announced bonanza grade discovery on Jan 13th, 11 kilos per ton silver, over 2 meters. Part of a section of "25.5-metres grading 1.16 grams per tonne gold and 961 grams per tonne silver."
CDU.V CUEAF.PK (CARDERO RSCS) http://www.cardero.com/ hvanalphen@cardero.com Henk Van Alphen -- President (604) 408-7488 40.1 mil shares fully diluted (July 1 2004) @ $3.67/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $2.90 US $116 mil MC ($17 million Cdn cash in the treasury)
Additional comments: Cardero has three silver properties in Argentina; two main silver exploration properties: Chingolo and Providencia.
Aug 17, 2004 Cardero Announces Results From Providencia "Cardero is encouraged by these results although ongoing sample recovery problems remain a concern..." Providencia -- high grades of silver, former silver mine, could have 100-250 mil oz. ??
Chingolo -- Henk says, "may have 400-600 mil oz. "exploration potential" in 200-300 mil tons of rock." They got 30-40 grams (1.23 oz.) on the first drill hole, but hope to find 2-3 ounces silver/ton.
June, 2004: Company quote: "The Company is actively evaluating silver, gold, copper and iron-ore projects which will ensure the recognition of Cardero as a world-class exploration and development company."
AOT.V ASOLF.PK (ASCOT RSCS) http://www.bmts.bc.ca/aot/ 1 604 684 8950 39.7 mil shares fully diluted. (Nov 2003) @ $.365/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.29 US $11 mil MC (US) ---- Additional comments: They own 5.82 million shares and 388,000 warrants of Cardero at $.35, which usually is a greater asset value than their market cap. Ascot's share price is typically around 80% of the value of their Cardero Stock, and less liquid.)
Owns about $17 mil worth of Cardero Stock at closing prices on Sept. 10th!
(I'm listing this one out of order, not by market cap, and next to Cardero, because of their position in Cardero.)
It may be better to buy Ascot than Cardero, depending on prices. Check the math, and call Ascot to verify Cardero stock holdings, and number of shares.
* OTMN.PK (O.T. MINING) (I own shares) http://www.otmining.com/ info@otmining.com Jim Hess Tel: 514-935-2445 12.8 mil shares fully diluted (May 15, 2004) @ $4.75/share $61 mil MC Montana Historic silver production for the Butte district, from 1880 to 2000 was 714,643,005 oz. silver. They think their deposit may be bigger than "the richest hill on earth", which is located near their property, in the Butte district. The exploration potential for this company is astounding, if they are right.
Drilling has begun!
"The Ruby property encompasses the past-producing high-grade Ruby gold-silver deposit which produced an average of 2.44 ounces per ton gold and 38.66 ounces silver per ton. A 193 ton bulk sample of a high-grade base metal mineralized zone associated with the Ruby deposit returned 7.6% lead, 5.19% zinc and 1.31% copper per ton."
"...This deposit is situated adjacent to the Ruby property and according to old reports contained 0.88-34.28 ounces per ton gold, 35-527 ounces per ton silver, 1.96-11.84% lead, and up to 5% copper. "
SPM.V SMNPF.PK (SCORPIO MINING) http://www.scorpiomining.com http://www.scorpiomining.com/s/SendMessage.asp 53.6 mil shares fully diluted Aug 9th, 2004 @ $1.05/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.83 US $44 mil MC Scorpio's recent March 2004, $16 million financing was at $2.25 Cdn/share! -- The Nuestra Senora Project: (the Candelaria deposit): Total Measured & Indicated: 131,058 tonnes @ 520.94 g/t Ag = 2.1 mil oz. of high grade silver, 16 oz./ton. Inferred: 49,468 tonnes @ 658.98 g/t Ag (21 oz./ton) = 1 mil oz. silver --the Cochrane Hill Gold Deposit: The total Indicated Resource ~ 112,460 contained ounces of gold. Total: 4 mil oz. silver equiv.
* FCO.TO FCACF.PK (FORMATION CAPTL) (I own shares) http://www.formcap.com/s/Home.asp inform@formcap.com 604-682-6229 165 mil shares fully diluted, March 2004 @ $.56/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.44 $73 mil MC (Completed $10 million financing in late 2003, early 2004) Very large cobalt property: 1-3 million tons of 0.60% cobalt equivalent Cobalt prices are racing ahead, up to $25- $33/lb. see http://www.wmc-cobalt.com/prices.asp 2000 lbs/ton x 0.6% = 12 lbs/ton x $29.50 /lb. = $354/ton (rich ore) cobalt is $29.50/lb. recently, up from $9/lb. Formation Capital owns the Sunshine Silver Refinery (near Sterling Mining), worth $50 million. Break even cost $5-6/lb cobalt. The Idaho Cobalt Project is projected to produce 1,500 tonnes of cobalt per annum. = 3,000,000 lbs. production x about $ 20/lb profit? = about $60 mil profit/year??? FCO.TO also owns a few minor silver projects. The cobalt project needs more drilling, and with recent financing, things look bright. The refinery has started up, on time and under budget sunshinerefinery.com
I own shares of FCO.TO
TVI.TO TVIPF.PK (TVI PACIFIC) http://www.tvipacific.com tvi-info@tvipacific.com Dianne (IR) Phone: (403) 265-4356 400.5 mil shares fully diluted (June 14 2004) @ $.165/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.13 US $52 mil MC "The company has a policy of not hedging or entering into forward sales contracts." Cash flow positive. + 2.5 % royalty on "Rapu Rapu" that should be worth about $1 million per year starting within 9-12 months. (a cash source for an explorer is a big plus) 14 projects in the Philippines. Producing a dore bar of 96% silver and 4% gold from Canatuan project with the following: Total silver = 7.1 mil oz silver Total gold = 182,000 oz. gold x 10 (@10:1) = 1.8 mil oz silver equiv. Total silver equiv (Canatuan) = 8.9 mil oz. + they own a drilling company with 20 rigs. + they have a "foot in the door" in China. + many other promising exploration properties in the Asian Pacific.
TVI exploded in price from 16 cents to 23.5 cents when they announced that they would be mining in China: "TVI Pacific Inc. Receives Landmark Approval for Wholly Foreign-Owned Enterprise (WFOE) Status From Chinese Government". see http://tinyurl.com/vwbw
They are primarily a silver explorer. The bonus is they are a producer, and are cash flow positive, which are both extremely rare for an explorer. In fact, the other producers mostly all lose money!
* NPG.V NVPGF.PK (NEVADA PAC GOLD) (I own shares) http://www.nevadapacificgold.com/ dhottman@nevadapacificgold.com (604) 646-0188 David Hottman 59 mil shares fully diluted (Aug 18th, 2004) + 1.3 mil Placer dome placement 60.3 mil shares @ $.93/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.73 US $44 mil MC $2.8 million cash (April 2004) Amador Canyon Silver Project: 50-250 mil tonnes silver grades average 4 oz. sil/ ton in the deposit = 200 to 1000 mil oz. silver????? --very speculative at this point. Drilling needs to be done. $44 mil MC / 200 mil oz. = $44 mil MC / 1000 mil oz. =
Nevada Pacific Reports Drill Results From Amador Canyon Silver Project Friday October 1 I have been eagerly awaiting these drill results of phase one of a 10,000 foot drill program. They did not show a 4-6 oz./ton range as hoped, as many of the results were 1 oz./ton, but they did find one spot of higher grade: 8 oz./Ton over 40 feet. I'm leaving the rest of my prior comments in full this week, so you can compare the expectations with the reality. ------------------- The 200 to 1000 mil oz. of silver exploration potential estimate for the Amador Canyon project is based on the size of the area, which may provide between 50 and 250 million tonnes of ore, times a low grade of 4-6 ounce per ton. 50 mil tonnes x 4 oz/tonne = 200 mil oz., the low end of the target range. 250 million tonnes x 4 oz/tonne = 1000 mil oz., the high end of the range. That target range is the expectation that the geologists are hoping the drilling will prove up. It will likely take several rounds of drilling and analysis of drill results to get a proper resource calculation, and plenty of time.
NPG.V has 10 gold projects, and one silver-but it may be big. The Chairman, David Hottman, says that 90% of the value of the company is in gold, NOT silver, and yet, I'm buying this company for the silver project of Amador Canyon only, and as if the gold componant was worth nothing. (The gold projects are a free bonus, in my book, and help to alleviate the risk of this explorer.)
Explorer in Nevada. They do not really know how much silver they might they have in the Amador Canyon project. They just did a $2.5 million private placement, and another $10 million private placement in late November. On the web site, for David Hottman's bio, it says he was a founding member of Eldorado gold. "During his tenure, Eldorado's market capitalization grew from Cdn $7 million in 1992 to a peak of Cdn $781 million in 1996." Please note, exploration is risky, and costly.
Now that they are well-capitalized with over $10 million dollars, this company will likely do very well as they drill and prove up the deposits across all their properties.
I own shares of NPG.V
* MMGG.OB (METALLINE MINE) (I own shares) http://www.metalin.com/site_map.html metalin@attglobal.net Merlin Bingham 208-665-2002 21.6 mil shares fully diluted (April, 2004) (only 2 mil options and warrants) @ $2.90/share US $63 mil MC $5 million cash on hand, July 31, 2004
"The first drill was mobilized in January 2004 with additional drills added April through July to the present 4 drill program. To date, 160 holes have been drilled with a total of 15,602 meters drilled.
Reserva International of Reno, Nevada has completed a block model evaluation, using GEMCOM mine modeling software, of the oxide zinc mantos diamond drill, channel sample and percussion drill data. The block model result for the Iron Oxide (Red Zinc) manto is 22.6 million metric tons grading 8.11% using a cut off grade of 5%. "
1 metric tonne = 2 204.62262 pounds 8.11% x 2204 pounds/tonne = 178.7 pounds/tonne 178.7 pounds/tonne x 22.6 million metric tonnes = 4039.6 million pounds of zinc.
@ $ .44/lb, that's $1.8 billion dollars worth of zinc, and who knows how much silver.
This press release is very understated, using no superaltives. They found exactly what they were looking for, 4 billion pounds of zinc, and they are drilling for more, which I find very exciting. Their latest quarterly also includes a statement of the historical production, right below: Zinc & Silver in Mexico: Sierra Mojada. Sierra Mojada is a Silver District! "The Sierra Mojada Property has produced in excess of 10 million tons of high-grade ore that graded in excess of 30% lead, 20% zinc, 1% copper and 1 kg (31 ounces) silver per ton that was shipped directly to the smelter. The district has never had a mill to concentrate ore. All of the mining was done selectively for ore of sufficient grade to direct ship; mill grade ore was left unmined." (That's 310 million ounces of silver. Who knows how much silver is left?) That's the question with an explorer.
--Potentially the lowest production cost in the entire zinc industry due to new "oxide deposit" chemical extraction process as revolutionary as "heap leaching".
(Merlin of MMGG.OB, and Harlan of EXR.V (friends) both have reports that will educate you on the bullish story for Zinc.)
I own shares of MMGG.OB
MCAJF.PK (MACMIN LTD) http://www.macmin.com.au/ macmin@technet2000.com.au 450 mil shares and options (Feb., 04) @ $.10/share $45 mil MC This stock seems extremely volatile in price, with low liquidity, ranging from 7 cents to 13 cents. Total resource: 56 million oz. --from 2004 annual report. Will soon become a producer. The company is debt free, but has an "equity line of credit of $10 million" so that they can issue shares for money to a certain group. This may explain the wild changes in share price. The potential investors want a lower share price for any new financings! Also, Macmin has several multi-million oz. potential projects.
The other benefit of FR.V is that the company is keen on acquiring new properties. This is where the best money is made for a company in today's bull market in silver, in my opinion. From the home page of the web site:
"First Majestic recently announced the acquisition of Le Parrilla Silver Mine, Mexico, which is anticipated to be the first of several acquisitions over the coming months."
I own shares of FR.V
ECU.V ECUXF.PK (ECU SILVER MINI) http://www.ecu.ca/ -- site under construction, and under review by the exchange. ecu@ecu.qc.ca (819) 797-1210 = "145 mil shares fully diluted-about" verbal, from IR dept. (Sept. 9th, 2004)--including "about 5 mil shares in Sept 21 financing." @ $.405/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.32 $46 mil MC ECU.V is also exploring other gold properties.
Pursuant to this private placement, ECU Silver issued an aggregate of 24,137,931 units at a price of $0.29 per unit, each unit being comprised of one (1) common share in the share capital of ECU Silver and one third (1/3) of a common share purchase warrant, with each whole common share purchase warrant entitling its holder to acquire one common share at a price of $0.35
ECU is now a producer: "Production at ECU Silver's milling facility in Velardena has been averaging 200 tonnes per day since production resumed in early August and ECU Silver is in the process of increasing this production output to approximately 250 tonnes per day by the end of the month of September."
IAU.TO ITDXF.PK (INTREPID MINRLS) http://www.intrepidminerals.com/ scoates@intrepidminerals.com Stephen Coates, Investor Relations (416) 368-4525 52.4 mil shares fully diluted (March, 2004) @ $.72/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.57 US $30 mil MC $3.2 million cash from Dec. 9 financing. Company's exposure is about half to gold, half to silver in several projects. Joint Venture with BHP Billiton focused on "Cannington" style silver deposits using proprietary BHP Billiton data. (all figures are "exploration potential") El Salvador - 38.5 mil oz. Argentina - 6 mil oz. Total: 44 mil oz. silver Total gold: ~690k oz. x 10 (10:1 ratio) = ~ 6.9 mil oz. "silver equiv" Total: 53 mil oz. "silver equiv". (exploration potential or indicated or inferred, not reserves)
The stock price exploded, nearly doubling, in response to the news of the above drilling results.
Since this company is about half gold and half silver, the 10:1 ratio really cuts down the "silver equiv" numbers, so keep in mind the "gold bonus" factor here. But it's like that with a lot of the companies on this list, so keep that in mind, and do your own math if you want to use the 70:1 ratio.
MAI.V MNEAF.OB (MINERA ANDES) http://minandes.com/ ircanada@minandes.com (604) 689-7017 Art Johnson 90 mil shares fully diluted (April, 2004) @ $.66/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.52 US $47 mil MC Raised $6.6 mil in recent financing. owns 49% of the resource: "55 mil silver equiv. oz. resource" back in 2001. AT 60:1 silver:gold when gold was about $300/oz., about half/half silver and gold. Estimated: 16.7 mil oz "silver equiv" 15 mil oz. silver + 1.7 mil oz. "silver equiv" of 170,000 oz. of gold. They will be exploring for more: (The resources may be only 10% of the property.) 2.2 km stretch, open another 2.7, plus 3 other vein systems. significant high grade silver exploration potential. 7000 meters of diamond drilling. Plus a copper project, billion ton ore deposit.
Minera Andes has several significant bonuses that my method is not valuing properly. First, I undercount the gold, of course, so consider there is a "gold bonus" at current gold prices. Second, they will be doing significant exploration work to increase their resources, and they have recently raised the money to be able to pay for that exploration work. Third, they have a copper project, and copper prices are rising. I moved MAI.V to the explorers list to be more fair to their valutation.
* EDR.V EDRGF.PK (ENDEAVOUR SILVER) (I own shares) http://www.edrgold.com/ invest@edrgold.com Hugh Clarke, Investor Relations 1-877-685-9775 25.7 mil shares fully diluted (May 28th, 2004) @ $1.35/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $1.07 $27 mil MC As of May 28th, 2004, they have $9 mil Cdn cash. If all options and warrants are exercised, they will have another $9.8 mil Cdn in cash. They believe there may be a chance they will not need to dilute further to develop current silver production plans at the Santa Cruz Mine. Endeavour is not a "resource" play, but rather, a "production" play on silver. They are listed with the explorers because they do not have large drill results or a resource calculation outlining significantly large resources--they have only around 5 million ounces is all. But so they don't have a "prospective" mining property. Instead, they have a working mine! Like Hecla. http://www.edrgold.com/s/SantaCruzMine.asp --currently producing 600,000 oz. silver/yr. --plans to increase production to 4,000,000 oz. silver/yr
I own shares of EDR.V
CAUCF.PK (CALEDON RES) http://www.caledonresources.com/ gsalamis@caledonresources.com George Salamis - Managing Director 180,721,142 Shares Outstanding - @ .065 at Yahoo! (Mining in China) It trades on the London Stock Exchange, under the symbol, CDN $12 mil MC
Additional Comments: The market went crazy for Cabo on Tuesday, with the stock up 25%, up to $.95/share, and 1.4 million shares traded, nearly 47 times as many shares as traded on average, 30,000. Later that day, Cabo announced:
Cabo Announces $1,000,000 Flow-Through Private Placement (at $.80/share) This will provide funds needed to explore the silver properties, as the previous placements at $.75/unit and $.83/unit, for about $7 million were primarily for the drilling company acquisitions. Furthermore, this flow through financing will go into the drilling companies, and into the properties, so the company gets a double benefit as they drill their own properties, thus keeping more of the money "in house".
Cabo's drilling acquisitions are now profitable, and providing cash flow.
Cabo recently completed two private placements, one at .75 Cdn/share, and another at .83 Cdn/share, and successfully acquired two drilling companies.
In the article, I highlight what I feel is Cabo's most imporant asset: Their property in Cobalt, Ontario. The "silver capital of Canada" produced historically, over 500 million ounces of silver.
To learn more about the mining camp town of Cobalt, there is a fascinating article detailing the history of the silver camp at http://www.cobalt.ca/cobalt/history.htm
I own shares of CBE.V
SDR.V SDURF.PK (STROUD RSCS) http://www.stroudresourcesltd.com/projects-santo.html gcoburn@stroudresourcesltd.com Mr. George E. Coburn, President Tel: 416-362-4126 99 mil shares fully diluted (Oct, 2004) @ $.23/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.18 $185 mil MC JV partner with APM.V on Santo Domingo Silver Project in Mexico. 10oz. silver/ton x 22,000 tonnes. minimum... 150 to 300 mil oz. exploration potential of the deposit. ownership is between 30-50%, so... 30% of 150 mil oz.= 45 mil oz., and 50% of 300 mil oz. = 150 mil oz. $18 mil MC / 45 mil oz. = $18 mil MC /150 mil oz. =
* APM.V (Amerix Precious Metals Corp) (I own shares) http://www.amerixcorp.com/ john.andrews@amerixcorp.com 50 mil shares fully diluted http://www.newbulletgroup.com/financial.htm @ $.28/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.22 US $11 mil MC APM.V has a gold deposit in Brazil that's bigger than the silver project in Mexico. http://www.amerixcorp.com/mexico.htm " If the deposit extends to considerable depth, as do many of the silver deposits in the region, it is reasonable to assume a deposit of 300 million ounces of silver." Stroud Resources, JV partner, lists the deposit at 150-300 million oz. http://www.newbulletgroup.com/April1820022.pdf APM.V partners with SDR.V APM.V to get a 50-70% interest. 50% x 150 mil oz.= 75 mil oz., 70% x 300 mil oz. = 210 mil oz. $11 mil MC / 75 mil oz. = $11 mil MC / 210 mil oz. =
Additional Comments: three main properties in North America. The main exploration project is the Nieves, near the massive Fresnillo silver mine, owned by Penoles ($2 billion market cap).
Quaterra Resources Inc.: Drilling at Nieves Intersects High-Grade Silver Aug 12 (129.3 ounces/tonne) over 1.5 metres " The company said the results demonstrate that the Nieves mineralized system continues to have potential for development of Fresnillo-style underground high grade veins, and for bulk tonnage silver mineralization."
QTA.V is a Sister Company to Western Silver, WTZ above. See also Bravo Venture, BVG.V, another sister company, with 34.5 mil fully diluted shares (April, 2004)
PXI.V PNXPF.PK (Planet Exploration Inc.) http://www.planetexploration.info/mexico.asp invest@planetexploration.info 30.8 mil shares fully diluted (Jan. 2004) @ $.74/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.58 $18 mil MC Planet holds an option to acquire a 100% interest in the high-grade 7,005-hectare Copalquin gold/silver property located in Durango, Mexico. "Resource estimates on the property have not been calculated since the discovery of the high-grade vertical fault zone, its existence may significantly alter Kennecott's and Fransisco Gold's original target potential of one million ounces of gold and 50 million ounces of silver based on their interpretation of a low-grade horizontal quartz breccia formation."
NJMC.OB (NEW JERSEY MIN) http://www.newjerseymining.com/ minesystems@usamedia.tv Fred or Grant Brackebusch 23.9 mil shares fully diluted Apr, '04 @ $.73/share US $17 mil MC New Jersey Mining Company (NJMC) is engaged in exploring for and developing gold, silver and base metal ore reserves in the Coeur d'Alene Mining District of northern Idaho also known as the Silver Valley - one of the world's richest silver districts.
EPZ.V ESPZF.PK (ESPERANZA SILVR) http://www.esperanzasilver.com/s/Home.asp info@esperanzasilver.com 30.5 mil shares fully diluted (July 29, 2004) @ $.45/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = US $.35 $11 mil MC "Esperanza Silver Corporation is solely dedicated to the identification, acquisition and exploration of new silver projects." Looking for high grades.
Additional comments: --"MAG Silver Corporation enters the silver market as a powerful force. MAG combines a seasoned management team with two drill-ready geological extensions of high-grade world class producing districts. MAG controls 100% of the Juanicipio property adjacent to the Fresnillo District in central Mexico, currently producing over 12% of the world's silver from high grade underground vein structures."
The geologist, Peter K.M Megaw, is also working with EXN.V, another high grade silver project. Peter's philosophy was that it makes sense to go after very high grade silver projects that will be profitable regardless of the silver price.
EXN.V EXLLF.PK (EXCELLON RSCS) http://www.excellonresources.com info@excellonresources.com 144 mil shares fully diluted (Aug 27, 2004 corporate profile) @ $.205/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.16 US $23 mil MC From http://www.smartstox.com/reports/excellon.html indicated = 63,400 t x 2738 g/t x .03215oz./g = 5.6 mil oz. silver inferred = 2100 t x 1,433 g/t x .03215oz./g = .1 mil oz. silver "gross in-situ value of mineralization is $31.4 million." EXN to own 51% of the project. Apex is the joint partner. 51% x 6.2 mil oz. = 3.16 mil oz.
Additional comments: "Excellon ...is exploring and developing".... "a Bonanza grade Silver deposit in Mexico." The geologist, Peter K.M Megaw, is also working with MAG.V.
Excellon completed a 9000 unit financing for $9.9 million. A "silver debenture". The holders of each unit can opt to receive cash or silver bullion based on 200 oz. of silver per U.S. $1100. Thus, Excellon has "hedged" and pre-sold 1.8 million ounces of silver at $5.5/oz. Each unit also comes with 1000 warrants for Excellon stock at $.325.
SRY.V (STINGRAY RSCS) http://www.stingrayresources.com/ info@stingrayresources.com (416) 368 6240 17.1 mil shares fully diluted (may 28, 2004) @ $.90/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.71 $12 mil MC - Current projects centered in the Sierra Madre Belt of Mexico
This company has many silver and gold properties. Klondike has one silver property that could be producing within weeks.
(I own shares of KG.V)
SML.V SMLZF.PK (STEALTH MNRLS) http://www.stealthminerals.com Bill@McWilliam.com 604-306-0391 Bill McWilliam, Chief Executive Officer 48 mil shares (August 31- 02) @ $.33/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.26 $12 mil MC
DNI.V DMNKF.PK (DUMONT NICKEL) http://www.dumontnickel.com info@dumontnickel.com (416) 595-1195 60 mil shares outstanding (April 15, 2004) does not include options and warrants. @ $.235/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.185 $11 mil MC Dumont stilll needs to raise and pay several million to Clifton Mining for 50%-60% of each property, and there are many properties. (See Clifton for more specifics on the JV agreement.)
Additional comments: Dumont has been acquiring many properties, which is making Clifton's original property that much bigger. Dumont is Clifton Mining's JV partner, doing active drilling work right now.
They just released their Technical Report Utah 2004 Technical Report Utah 2004 (11.5MB PDF) and their Annual Report 2004 Annual Report 2004 (0.7MB PDF) see http://www.dumontnickel.com
I do not like JV agreements due to the complexity of trying to determine ownership which is contingent upon many unknown factors that might change in the future. One man recently offered me an interesting suggestion. He simply said, "Why not buy both companies?"
* KRE.V KREKF.PK (KENRICH ESKAY) (I own shares) http://www.kenrich-eskay.com/ info@kenrich-eskay.com Toll-free 1-888-805-3940 or (604) 682-0557 29.2 mil shares fully diluted (July, 2004) @ $.50/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.39 US $12 mil MC Recently completed a $2.3 million financing for exploration. Kenrich Eskay's "Cory" property (25,000 acres, 100% owned) is 10km south of Barrick's silver property, Eskay Creek, which is "the fifth largest silver producer in the world", with a reserve "at the beginning of 2001, 1.42 mil tons, grading 1.5 ounces/ton of gold, and 68.3 ounces/tonne of silver, 3.2% lead, 5.2% zinc.--That's Barrick's Eskay Creek property. Kenrich Eskay is hoping to find something similar nearby. (See 5th slide of http://www.kenrich-eskay.com/images/KRE-Presentation_files/frame.htm 70% of the rights to The Property was once almost bought by Homestake (which was acquired by Barrick) for $35 million in 1996, and Homestake was going to fund all exploration and development. The buy out ended when metals prices collapsed, and Bre-X hit, and when the majors cut back on exploration budgets to stay alive. This means the market cap of KRE.V may be worth 100% / 70% x $35 million, or $50 million, plus exploration and development costs, to a major mining company, and likely worth much more today, due to inflation of the dollar, and the rise in the price of silver!
* CMA.V CRMXF.OB (Cream Minerals Ltd) (I own shares.) http://www.creamminerals.com/cream/main.htm http://www.langmining.com/cream-mx/ 34.8 mil shares fully diluted (March 31, 2004) @ $.30/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.24 US $8 mil MC from: http://www.langmining.com/cream-mx/companyProjects_Summary.html Project B: Potential Target: 400m x 500m x 150m x 2.5 t/m3 = 75,000,000 tonnes Say at: Au 0.480 g/t Ag 149.33 g/t Silver only, that's (1 gram = .03215 troy oz.) 4.8 oz./t x 75 million tonnes = 360 million oz. "exploration potential" in a low-grade deposit. $8 mil MC / 360 mil oz. = $.02/oz. (exploration potential) --not yet even a "resource"!
Additional comments: Another silver property is the Kaslo. "The Kaslo Silver Property encompasses the Keen Creek Silver Belt and is comprised of nine former high grade silver mines"...
(I own shares of CMA.V)
CHMN.PK (CHESTER MINING) http://www.chestermining.com/ William Campbell, president (800)222-1505 "2.3 million shares outstanding, positive working capital, (making money & profitable) and no debt" @ $3.75/share US $9 mil MC http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031121/215141_1.html Historic estimate: "defined Conjecture mineral reserves of 706,000 tons grading 11.8 ounces per ton (oz/t) silver" -- the Conjecture Mine, with a lease-option agreement signed with Shoshone Silver Mining Company = 8.3 million ounces of silver (leased out) Since Chester will be receiving royalties, it makes it harder for me to value this company. MMG.V MMEEF.PK (MCMILLAN GOLD) http://www.macmillangold.com/ macmillangold@ca.inter.net 25.6 mil shares outstanding (3q 2003 report June, 2003) @ $.495/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.39 $10 mil MC MacMillan Gold Hits Ore Grade Gold and Silver Mineralization at the Cerro de Oro --July 26. Hole 54 which intersected from surface 41.1 m. of 1.44 g Au/t, 119.9 g Ag/t, 1.73% lead and 1.55% zinc.
GPR.V GPRLF.PK (GREAT PANTHER RES) http://www.greatpanther.com info@greatpanther.com Robert Archer, President, & Kaare Foy CFO: 604 608 1766 25.9 mil shares fully diluted (8-20 news release, 2004) @ $.37/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.30 $8 mil MC "Great Panther Resources Limited has combined experienced management, access to capital and high quality projects in Mexico. Silver and gold prices gained 26% and 21% respectively in 2003 and GPR intends to leverage this through the acquisition and development of high quality silver and gold projects." --Option on the Topia Silver Mine in Mexico, formerly owned by Penoles, closed in 1999. Est. 5 years worth of resources left. needs payments totaling about $2.5 million over 3 years.
ROK.V ROCAF.PK (ROCA MINES INC) http://www.rocamines.com info@rocamines.com 38.8 mil shares fully diluted (June 23, 2004) @ $.305/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.24 $9 mil MC Foremore project, 45km north of Eskay Creek
EGD.V EGDMF.PK (ENERGOLD MINING) http://www.energold.com/s/Default.asp info@energold.com Fred Davidson President (604) 681-9501 16.8 mil shares fully diluted (June 30, 2002) @ $.59/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.47 $8 mil MC "advanced silver project in Mexico" Real de Belem -- property has "all the permits required for the commencement of a 200 tonne per day mining operation." A range of 571 to 3,713 g/t Ag. (may not conform to Canadian NI43-101 standards.) A 16 hole, 1500 m drill program is currently underway. At any time during the currency of the Option Agreement, Energold will have the right to acquire a 100% interest in the Real de Belem project for an additional US$5.0 million.
GNG.V GGTHF.PK (GOLDEN GOLIATH) http://www.goldengoliath.com/ jps@goldengoliath.com 604-682-2950 32.4 mil shares fully diluted @ $.27/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.21 $7 mil MC Additional comments: Silver Explorer in Mexico in the the Sierra Madre mountains: Uruachic. They hope to take a collection of old silver mines and make them open pittable. They have some very high grades from chip samples from the tunnels, ranging from 100g to 500g all the way up to around and over 1000g/ton of silver.
LEG.V LEGCF.PK (LATEEGRA RSCS) http://www.lateegra.com info@lateegra.com Michael Townsend, President Toll Free: 1-866-669-9377 Richard one of the IR guys. 38.7 mil shares fully diluted? (Jan 7, 2004) @ $.14/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.11 US $4 mil MC see also Teuton Resources Corp (TUO.V) --involved with 7 exploration projects, one near the Eskay Creek Silver Mine, one in China.
TBLC.PK (TIMBERLINE RES) http://www.timberline-resources.com Company contact: Bill Hoyt, director. 785-383-9246 4.88 million shares outstanding. @ $.75/share $4 mil MC The Company has acquired seven mineral prospects to explore. These prospects are located in Nevada, Idaho and Montana. Timberline to Lease Montana Properties to Sterling MiningThu, Aug 26 - Business Wire The Montana property is near the property owned by Mines Management. Silver Property: Minton Pass project: 20 claims containing Revett formation silver/copper project in Northern Montana. At least 5 drill holes were drilled on or near the claim group in the 1970s and 1980s. A 1971 geologic report indicates that mineralized outcrops of Revett quartzite containing bornite and other copper minerals could be traced for about 1 mile along strike of the outcrop.A short adit was driven to expose the mineralization.Sampling results showed a stratographic thickness of 16.7 feet that averaged .7% copper and 1.78 opt silver. Detailed work plans are under development, pending acquisition and study of prior exploration data.
* PDO.V (PORTAL DE ORO RS) (I own shares) http://www.portalresources.net info@portalresources.net Phone: (604) 629-1929 Reg Advocaat 9.45 mil shares fully diluted (mid 2004) 5 mil shares owned by management! @ $.56 Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = US $.44 $4.2 mil MC $500k Cdn cash in the bank; To be spent on exploring two properties in Argentina, $200k each. In Argentina, in Chubut Province, Arroyo Verde Gold/silver Project. Option to own 100%, need about another $1 mil or less to exercise option. Property was explored a bit, and now, will be re-explored. Planning to do a 3000-meter reverse-circulation drill program, to go deeper, looking for the "boiling point", hopefully a wider higher grade area.. --Possible open pit, no historic workings, 200km to the east of IMA's properties. The property was formerly owned by Minera Andes recently, and Pegasus, who ran out of time and money at the bottom of the market in 1999. In Argentina, in Mendoza, San Rafael project (Gold and copper in Argentina) 700 sq. mile prop., 30 drill targets... Portal Resources Ltd.: Commencement San Rafael Reconnaissance Thursday August 19
(I own shares of PDO.V) * AUN.V AUNFF.PK (Aurcana Corp) (I own shares) http://www.aurcana.com/ -- NEW updated website kbooth@aurcana.com CEO Ken Booth 604-331-9333 42.7 mil shares fully diluted (Sept 2004) @ $..095/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.075 US $3 mil MC Cash $650,000 Cdn, no debt Drilling to commence on high-grade, gold-silver targets. (in Mexico) 6 properties. Real de Catorce--Historically, more than 220 million ounces of silver was mined from five million tons of ore on this property, approx. 48 ounces of silver per ton
(I own shares of AUN.V)
ASLM.PK (AMER SILVER MINI) 2.75 million shares issued @ $1.35/share $4 mil MC Claim between CDE and the old Sunshine mine. JV with CDE subsidiary untill 2017. ASLM to receive 20% net royalty, & if silver prices reach $16.50 an ounce or above, the profit sharing goes to 40%. Coeur d' Alene, Idaho
BGS.V BLDGF.PK (BALLAD GLD SLVR) http://www.balladnet.com ir@balladnet.com 16.3 mil shares outstanding (fully diluted?) @ $.19/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.15 US $2 mil MC Bonanza grade "grab samples" in southern Argentina near IMA. 32 oz./T gold and 22 oz./T silver grab samples.
GRG.V (GOLDEN ARROW RESC) (I own shares) http://www.tse.com/en/mediaNews/newsreleases/news7116.html shareholder@tsx.com Sean Hurd (800) 901 0058 (604) 687-1828 (same # as for IMR.V, which spun off Golden Arrow) 4.3 mil shares outstanding.--number from Sean Hurd. $750,000 Cdn in the bank. @ $.78/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.62 $3 mil MC 35 exploration properties Argentine & Peru Property portfolio --Spun off from IMR.V (IMA Exploration)
BBR.V BBRRF.PK (BRETT RES) http://www.bmts.bc.ca/bbr/ 17.2 mil shares fully diluted @ $.16/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.13 $2 mil MC Silver projects: Yukon --grab sample of 611 g/t Ag Argentina --samples from 31 to 5640 g/t Ag
CLZ.V (Canasil Resources Inc ) http://www.canasil.com/ 22.4 mil shares fully diluted (July 2004) @ $.16/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.13 $3 mil MC Exploration properties in Mexico and B.C.
IPT.V IMPJF.PK (Impact Minerals) http://www.impactmin.com/ Frederick W. Davidson, President (604) 681-9501 inquiries@impactmin.com 12.5 mil shares fully diluted (From website, Sept. 2004, but date unknown) @ $.27/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.21 US $3 mil MC IMPACT is exploring the extensive Zacualpan Silver Mining District in central Mexico. IMPACT signed agreements that include options on two operating mines and a processing plant.
LSM.V LASCF.PK (Langis Silver & Cobalt Mining Co Ltd) no web site: Patrick Sheridan Jr. President and Secretary-Treasurer Phone: (416) 628-5936 11,565,890 issued and outstanding common shares. (not fully diluted) @ $.18/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.14 $2 mil MC
CBP.V CPBMF.PK (CONS PAC BAY MIN) http://www.pacific-bay.com/ Guilford Brett, IR (604) 682-2421 11.2 mil shares outstanding (not fully diluted) (Jan 1, 2004) @ $.13/share Cdn x .79 US/Cdn = $.10 $1 mil MC
--CBP.V is the smallest market cap silver stock that I know of. It is truly a "penny stock".
------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------ Final Category: Silver stocks FOR YOU and I TO RESEARCH further:
I strongly recommend you try to "get ahead of me," and research these stocks to see if I left out any great values. I probably did. I simply did not have time, or could not yet find information (without using the telephone) on all the two key figures needed to get the "price per oz." in the ground. You need: 1. The number of shares fully diluted x share price to get the market cap. Then, 2., you need an estimate of the oz. in the ground. Usually, I've been finding the oz. in the ground resource estimates right off the company webpages, and I get the number of shares by looking for it burried in the financial statements like the quarterlies or annual reports, which are also usually right on the company webpages. Have fun researching for silver companies, and let me know if you find any good ones, and I'll add them to this list.
new one : helena silver. it is trading should have website soon.
UNCN.OB (UNICO INC) http://www.uncn.net/ Ray Brown, 530-873-4394 Andrew Beyer (909) 587-8072 90 mil shares (about, in June, 2004) today, unknown. @ $.029/share Three main properties: Bromide-- 372,000 ounces of gold? Silver Bell--15 mil oz silver? Deer Trail --287,000 ounces of gold and 27 million ounces of silver... but the lease on the Deer Trail will expire August 31, 2005 ($3 million more total due), so they need to raise a significant amount of money. 49 mil oz. total. You get options and leases ...
Additional comments: Current share structure and debt situation unknown.
Mascot Silver Lead Mines MSLM.PK http://www.mascotsilver.com/ Coeur d' Alene, Idaho "Though we have reserves and could conceivably mine them, it frankly makes no sense to do so at current prices. ... The end of the silver bear will bring a number of the now-dormant small companies back to life..." New President, still trades under $.25/share.
Silver Buckle Mines Inc (SBUM.PK) Coeur d' Alene, Idaho
Merger Mines Corp (MERG.PK) --Leased by Sterling Mining, who is exploring their property, and owns 14% of Merger stock. 2.7 mil shares outstanding. (Sept, 2004) Coeur d' Alene, Idaho
Signal Silver --hopes to trade by next year.
Mineral Mountain Mining Company Delaine Gruber, 208-664-3544 www.minmountain.com Coeur d' Alene, Idaho
Independence Lead Coeur d' Alene, Idaho
Metropolitain Mines Ltd (MEMLA.PK) --next to the Sunshine in Coeur d' Alene, Idaho
Silver Bowl http://www.silver-bowl.com/ Coeur d' Alene, Idaho --working to get a new stock transfer coompany
http://www.oxusgold.co.uk/ 216,559,942 Fully Diluted shares oxus will spin off: Khandiza is a high-grade zinc, silver, copper and lead deposit located in the Sariasia region of southeast Uzbekistan.
Silver Mountain Lead Mines Inc (SMLM.PK)
Silver Verde May Mining Co (SIVE.PK)
Silver Surprize Inc (SLSR.PK)
Standard Silver Corp (SDSI.PK)
Horn Silver Mines Co (HRNS.PK) (801)-281-5656
Andean American Mining Corp AAG.V ANMCF.PK http://www.andeanamerican.com/ --concentrates solely in Peru Peru currently stands as the largest gold producer and second largest copper producer in Latin America as well as the second largest silver producer in the world.
Here are a few more stocks to look up. I don't even know if some of these are silver miners.
Lfex - Lucky Friday Extention Kcpm - King of pine creek Vins - vindicator silver,
Osburn Wallace APNE ALS Royal Silver Mines (RSMI) Bunker Hill-- owned by new bunker hill mining company, stockpiling ore. Nabob New Era
Articles like this one, that present opportunities like these, can tend to move the markets in these stocks. So, be careful when buying. If you place any market orders at the open for any of these small stocks, you might end up buying at prices that are significantly higher than you intended. Limit orders might be better, but then, you run the risk of your order not being filled if the stock price exceeds your limit. And bid / ask spreads such as 15% on small cap silver stocks are not unusual. Markets can especially be moved given the wide readership on the internet. I've seen markets moved even by small private newsletters such as lemetropolecafe.com and silver-investor.com (I subscribe to both). Some of these stocks can move up 15%, 30%, 50% or even over 100% in a single day. Thus, valuations can change very, very quickly. So, be careful, and re-check the numbers if the prices move up. Do your own math.
Also note, the majority of these companies have an emphasis on silver. Most silver is produced as a by product of other mining, like lead or zinc or copper mining. Those companies that primarily produce other minerals are not featured in this report. This also helps to explain and prove, that silver is undervalued. If silver miners cannot mine silver profitably, and this report shows that to be true, then something is wrong with the silver price. It must go higher.
This report, and my method of valuing silver companies, depends on a much higher price for silver than exists today to be most accurate and most successful. If silver prices go up significantly, my picks will do well. If silver prices remain flat, then many of my picks should not do well.
Many people have told me that they don't get information this good even when they sign up for annual newsletter subscriptions from others that cost from $100 - $300.
The beauty of the internet is that it is helping knowledge to increase, and it is a form of communication that those who commit crimes of monetary fraud upon us cannot control. Please make the most of it, and please forward this on to others.
You can signup, or unsubscribe, to this report at GoldIsMoney.com
Jason Hommel Final Disclaimer: I have not received any compensation from any public silver stock company for writing up my weekly report on "Silver Stocks--Comparative Valuations". I own shares of the following 25 silver stocks: APM.V, CFTN.PK, IMR.V, ABI.V, CZN.TO, EXR.V CSG.TO, GRG.V, ASM.V, CMA.V, PLE.V, PDO.V,AUN.V, EDR.V, KG.V, MGN, CBE.V, NPG.V, SVL.V, MMGG.OB, TM.V, OTMN.PK, FCO.TO, KRE.V, FR.V. These are required disclaimers by the SEC: whether I've been paid, and what I own. I believe the SEC intended this to be a cautionary note that I own these shares, not as a recommendation or endorsement. I reserve the right to buy or sell any stock at any time. I believe the SEC does not require a disclosure regarding finder's fees. Nevertheless, I receive "finder's fees" from silver companies on occasion.
-- Posted 2 October, 2004 | |
Last Three Articles by Jason Hommel, Gold Is Money
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