-- Posted 24 July, 2008 | Digg This Article | Discuss This Article - Comments:

Rick’s Picks

Thursday, July 24, 2008

“Phenomenally accurate forecasts” 

A Hidden Pivot target for Comex Silver that went out to subscribers Tuesday night appears to have worked nicely for at least one trader. Here he is, come a-gloating yesterday in the chat room:  “Rick, you son of a b____. You just made me $8K I was short, covered at 17.34 and went long at the same time. Now I’m gonna tighten up stops, since I took 1/2 off the table already.”  Mind you, this trader’s day job, allegedly, is sheep farming. So much for the notion that trading is not for everybody.  It isn’t, we should warn you, and neither should you infer from this guy’s success that we hit bullseyes all the time. Even so, it will always be a pleasure to hear from subscribers who have been kissed by lady luck, even if just a peck on the cheek.

And here is the forecast, exactly as it appeared in the Touts section of Wednesday’s subscriber page: “The downtrend steam-rollered some minor Hidden Pivot supports and prior lows yesterday, announcing that it probably has bigger things in mind. If so, look for more selling to push the futures down to at least 17.315, a Hidden Pivot that can be bottom-fished aggressively with a stop-loss as tight as you please.” And so it went, even if only by dint of good luck. When the dust settled, the futures had plummeted sharply to within a single tick of the predicted 17.315 low. And now for the chart:

Would that the forecast for Comex Gold had been sufficiently gloomy!  Gold futures were tracking the same bearish pattern, more or less, but we neglected to extrapolate a worst-case target as we’d done in Silver.  Platinum was also featured in Wednesday’s touts, and although it looked for a few hours as though the October contract might hold almost precisely at the 1750.30 low that had been predicted, a final wave of selling carved out a new bottom, perhaps temporary, at 1740.

So what do we think of the bearish price action yesterday in precious metals? We see it as a buying opportunity, and we will therefore continue to update our forecasts with correction targets that can be bottom-fished with relatively little risk.  In the meantime, anyone who thinks the selling in precious metals is going to continue for much longer obviously does not understand the implications of a Federal budget deficit soon to leap above $10 trillion and presumably out of control. The spinmeisters  may be able to distract CNBC viewers from the meaning of this, and from the inevitable destruction of the dollar that it must cause. However, our foreign lenders will surely recognize it as a warning of a catastrophe in the offing.  Although falling oil prices could temporarily take some pressure off the dollar by causing the trade deficit to shrink, there should be no doubt that the moist ruinous phase of the currency’s bear market lies ahead.  

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Information and commentary contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable, but this cannot be guaranteed. Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future results, so let the buyer beware. Rick's Picks does not provide investment advice to individuals, nor act as an investment advisor, nor individually advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment. From time to time, its editor may hold positions in issues referred to in this service, and he may alter or augment them at any time. Investments recommended herein should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor, and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Rick's Picks reserves the right to use e-mail endorsements and/or profit claims from its subscribers for marketing purposes. All names will be kept anonymous and only subscribers’ initials will be used unless express written permission has been granted to the contrary. All Contents © 2008, Rick Ackerman. All Rights Reserved. www.rickackerman.com 

-- Posted 24 July, 2008 | Digg This Article | Discuss This Article - Comments:

Last Three Articles by Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks Gold, Silver Back To Bargain Levels 24 July, 2008 Downside Targets For Silver & Gold 19 September, 2006 Are T-Bonds About to Dive? 2 March, 2006 Rick Ackerman - Article Archive List